RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit020x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit020x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 569 1 Glen Derry DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 569 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 457 5701-334 1773 1978 - 569 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 569012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 569021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 569041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 568102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 568111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 568112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1907 1920 / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 0.715 0.073 -0.313 2.560 0.078 0.521 2 569012 1773 1978 206 0.740 0.102 -0.283 2.620 0.090 0.661 3 569021 1779 1978 200 0.789 0.120 -0.295 2.844 0.086 0.761 4 569022 1809 1978 170 0.846 0.112 -0.807 2.886 0.077 0.743 5 569031 1779 1978 200 0.828 0.114 -0.612 2.839 0.096 0.627 6 569032 1806 1978 173 0.820 0.122 -0.344 2.391 0.098 0.670 7 569041 1823 1978 156 0.802 0.084 -0.589 3.225 0.094 0.391 8 569042 1820 1978 159 0.789 0.086 -0.274 2.869 0.087 0.475 9 569051 1811 1978 168 0.710 0.090 -0.380 2.971 0.100 0.514 10 569052 1784 1978 195 0.755 0.080 -0.001 2.681 0.099 0.259 11 569061 1838 1978 141 0.764 0.083 0.364 2.507 0.089 0.460 12 569062 1796 1978 183 0.885 0.076 -0.176 2.607 0.092 0.089 13 569071 1817 1978 162 0.949 0.067 -0.307 2.916 0.072 0.135 14 569072 1790 1978 189 0.910 0.091 -1.070 4.216 0.101 0.214 15 569081 1864 1978 115 0.719 0.062 0.406 3.484 0.086 0.270 16 569082 1810 1978 169 0.694 0.105 0.048 2.339 0.102 0.684 17 569091 1833 1978 146 0.696 0.060 0.653 3.309 0.091 0.097 18 569092 1833 1978 146 0.667 0.074 0.704 3.197 0.099 0.295 19 568101 1846 1978 133 0.827 0.070 -0.547 3.454 0.096 -0.032 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 0.848 0.086 -0.294 2.860 0.078 0.523 21 568111 1786 1978 193 0.758 0.061 0.126 3.004 0.089 0.054 22 568112 1773 1978 206 0.803 0.076 0.115 3.127 0.104 0.109 23 568121 1810 1978 169 0.788 0.087 0.144 2.675 0.105 0.342 24 568122 1801 1978 178 0.789 0.122 -0.230 2.887 0.121 0.528 25 572131 1878 1978 101 0.715 0.094 0.773 3.968 0.100 0.544 26 572132 1856 1978 123 0.863 0.059 -0.201 3.413 0.075 0.067 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1773 TO 1978 206 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 165 0.787 0.087 -0.130 2.994 0.092 0.385 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.071 0.020 0.454 0.452 0.011 0.241 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 0.789 0.085 -0.252 2.887 0.093 0.425 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.109 0.029 0.470 0.550 0.014 0.409 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.667 0.059 -1.070 2.339 0.072 -0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.719 0.073 -0.344 2.675 0.086 0.135 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 0.828 0.102 0.126 3.225 0.100 0.544 MAXIMUM VALUE 205 0.949 0.122 0.773 4.216 0.121 0.761 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.435 0.162 0.009 -0.280 3.271 -0.085 0.828 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.085 SERIES 569022 AND 568112 170 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.828 SERIES 569021 AND 569082 169 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 36. 171. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.601 0.523 0.499 0.486 0.417 0.404 SDEV 0.000 0.123 0.162 0.134 0.154 0.170 SERR 0.000 0.020 0.012 0.008 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.931 0.954 0.959 0.960 0.949 0.946 NSS 9.0 18.8 23.2 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.796 0.065 -0.047 2.390 0.072 0.410 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.377 -0.129 0.199 6 200 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.23 1.02 1.03 1.25 2.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.04 0.57 0.87 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 169. 43. 101. 146. 189. 206. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.408 0.487 0.379 0.436 0.409 0.475 0.423 0.394 0.334 0.360 PACF 0.408 0.384 0.141 0.193 0.149 0.208 0.111 0.026 -0.039 0.018 95% C.L. 0.139 0.161 0.187 0.202 0.219 0.234 0.252 0.265 0.276 0.284 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.405 0.058 0.217 0.029 0.100 0.113 0.218 0.128 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 569011 1 0.50934011 0.00228238 0.00000000 0.29085642 2 569012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122443 0.86589509 3 569021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158135 0.94883806 4 569022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00167503 0.98956770 5 569031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127324 0.95561057 6 569032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00159961 0.95922369 7 569041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034183 0.82868844 8 569042 1 0.14127685 0.02266295 0.00000000 0.75122404 9 569051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121446 0.81297904 10 569052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051862 0.80615807 11 569061 1 0.19148615 0.02974335 0.00000000 0.71995050 12 569062 1 0.05120877 0.01654005 0.00000000 0.86895251 13 569071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013208 0.95946860 14 569072 1 0.06552802 0.01096740 0.00000000 0.88214767 15 569081 1 0.23286772 0.00657375 0.00000000 0.55610454 16 569082 1 0.34862134 0.01024513 0.00000000 0.52954191 17 569091 1 0.02349836 0.02611822 0.00000000 0.69021648 18 569092 1 0.17006956 0.01949785 0.00000000 0.61153370 19 568101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018496 0.81452495 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 568102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000790 0.84783435 21 568111 1 0.10705644 0.00301433 0.00000000 0.67613095 22 568112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047073 0.75018656 23 568121 1 0.12286349 0.04733329 0.00000000 0.77340913 24 568122 1 0.46025589 0.00452139 0.00000000 0.47321403 25 572131 1 0.31383052 0.07769338 0.00000000 0.67640746 26 572132 1 0.05434149 0.06885435 0.00000000 0.85681146 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.000 0.080 0.043 3.286 0.077 0.212 2 569012 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.103 0.433 4.681 0.090 0.374 3 569021 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.100 -0.253 2.801 0.085 0.447 4 569022 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.094 -0.019 2.996 0.077 0.462 5 569031 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.109 -0.422 3.309 0.096 0.353 6 569032 1806 1978 173 1.000 0.115 -0.016 2.641 0.097 0.401 7 569041 1823 1978 156 1.000 0.104 -0.375 2.888 0.095 0.365 8 569042 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.100 -0.124 3.133 0.086 0.367 9 569051 1811 1978 168 1.000 0.097 -0.015 3.331 0.099 0.165 10 569052 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.099 0.014 3.482 0.098 0.137 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.090 0.764 3.922 0.088 0.199 12 569062 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.085 -0.314 2.772 0.092 0.061 13 569071 1817 1978 162 1.000 0.070 -0.396 2.961 0.071 0.124 14 569072 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.099 -1.022 4.163 0.101 0.188 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.070 0.224 2.690 0.085 -0.087 16 569082 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.101 0.135 3.203 0.101 0.220 17 569091 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.085 0.674 3.445 0.091 0.087 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.089 0.697 3.467 0.098 -0.070 19 568101 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.085 -0.535 3.345 0.095 -0.041 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 1.000 0.101 -0.298 2.878 0.079 0.516 21 568111 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.080 0.230 3.152 0.089 0.025 22 568112 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.088 0.027 2.976 0.101 0.006 23 568121 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.106 0.320 3.004 0.104 0.278 24 568122 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.128 -0.106 3.167 0.120 0.277 25 572131 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.095 -0.043 2.602 0.099 0.248 26 572132 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.067 -0.202 3.274 0.074 0.030 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.094 -0.022 3.214 0.092 0.206 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.014 0.403 0.472 0.011 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.096 -0.017 3.159 0.094 0.205 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.016 0.522 0.457 0.014 0.303 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.067 -1.022 2.602 0.071 -0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.085 -0.298 2.888 0.085 0.061 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.101 0.224 3.345 0.099 0.365 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 1.000 0.128 0.764 4.681 0.120 0.516 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 569011 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 569012 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 569021 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 569022 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 569031 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 569032 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 569041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 569042 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 569051 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 569052 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 569061 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 569062 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 569071 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 569072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 569081 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 569082 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 569091 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 569092 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 568101 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 568102 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 568111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 568112 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 568121 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 568122 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 572131 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 572132 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.000 0.076 -0.035 3.372 0.077 0.128 2 569012 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.101 0.406 4.562 0.090 0.342 3 569021 1779 1978 200 0.999 0.086 -0.100 2.767 0.085 0.268 4 569022 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.082 0.038 3.316 0.077 0.303 5 569031 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.106 -0.485 3.587 0.096 0.314 6 569032 1806 1978 173 0.999 0.104 0.011 2.857 0.097 0.253 7 569041 1823 1978 156 0.999 0.085 -0.219 2.736 0.095 0.056 8 569042 1820 1978 159 0.999 0.092 -0.141 3.196 0.086 0.252 9 569051 1811 1978 168 1.000 0.093 -0.028 3.313 0.099 0.082 10 569052 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.092 0.074 3.491 0.098 -0.004 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.082 0.705 3.720 0.088 0.057 12 569062 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.082 -0.346 2.746 0.092 0.001 13 569071 1817 1978 162 1.000 0.067 -0.375 2.908 0.071 0.050 14 569072 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.097 -0.943 4.089 0.101 0.161 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.069 0.216 2.695 0.085 -0.107 16 569082 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.098 0.042 3.097 0.101 0.185 17 569091 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.084 0.682 3.515 0.091 0.056 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.087 0.685 3.359 0.098 -0.105 19 568101 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.081 -0.462 3.214 0.095 -0.170 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 1.000 0.090 -0.301 3.406 0.079 0.383 21 568111 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.079 0.241 3.168 0.089 0.012 22 568112 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.086 0.124 3.139 0.101 -0.048 23 568121 1810 1978 169 0.999 0.090 0.210 2.896 0.104 -0.016 24 568122 1801 1978 178 0.999 0.122 -0.175 3.293 0.120 0.205 25 572131 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.090 -0.291 2.618 0.099 0.153 26 572132 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.065 -0.033 3.443 0.074 -0.024 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.088 -0.019 3.250 0.092 0.107 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.012 0.382 0.442 0.011 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.087 -0.031 3.253 0.094 0.069 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.011 0.501 0.547 0.014 0.256 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.999 0.065 -0.943 2.618 0.071 -0.170 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.082 -0.291 2.896 0.085 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.093 0.210 3.443 0.099 0.252 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 1.000 0.122 0.705 4.562 0.120 0.383 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.437 0.101 0.006 -0.195 3.132 0.105 0.701 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.105 SERIES 569012 AND 568102 171 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.701 SERIES 569052 AND 569091 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 36. 171. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.618 0.529 0.512 0.480 0.439 0.447 SDEV 0.000 0.121 0.123 0.134 0.126 0.138 SERR 0.000 0.020 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.935 0.955 0.961 0.959 0.953 0.955 NSS 9.0 18.8 23.2 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.999 0.060 0.028 2.892 0.071 -0.077 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.117 0.037 0.026 64 142 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.49 1.00 1.05 1.54 2.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.66 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.077 0.137 -0.065 0.041 0.005 0.126 0.032 0.003 -0.102 -0.031 PACF -0.077 0.132 -0.046 0.016 0.024 0.121 0.048 -0.023 -0.106 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.139 0.140 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.147 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.026 -0.067 0.133 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.101 0.139 -0.085 0.048 0.016 0.138 0.023 -0.061 -0.132 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.101 2 -0.088 0.130 3 -0.080 0.125 -0.061 4 -0.079 0.122 -0.060 0.018 5 -0.080 0.125 -0.065 0.021 0.041 6 -0.085 0.122 -0.056 0.005 0.052 0.133 7 -0.091 0.120 -0.057 0.007 0.047 0.137 0.044 8 -0.087 0.132 -0.052 0.008 0.041 0.148 0.036 -0.090 9 -0.100 0.137 -0.031 0.014 0.043 0.140 0.055 -0.102 -0.145 10 -0.106 0.133 -0.029 0.019 0.044 0.141 0.054 -0.097 -0.149 -0.039 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1220.52 1220.40 1218.88 1220.10 1222.03 1223.68 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1222.00 1223.60 1223.93 1221.54 1223.22 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.088 0.130 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.70 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.77 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.088 0.138 -0.024 0.020 -0.005 0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 569011 2 0.041 0.108 0.156 2 569012 2 0.176 0.260 0.243 3 569021 2 0.199 0.172 0.360 4 569022 2 0.098 0.285 0.061 5 569031 2 0.122 0.276 0.124 6 569032 2 0.083 0.225 0.125 7 569041 2 0.022 0.049 0.137 8 569042 2 0.089 0.215 0.149 9 569051 2 0.054 0.065 0.206 10 569052 2 0.060 -0.003 0.245 11 569061 2 0.118 0.038 0.338 12 569062 2 0.007 0.001 0.064 13 569071 2 0.012 0.049 0.028 14 569072 2 0.042 0.142 0.117 15 569081 2 0.021 -0.100 0.067 16 569082 2 0.082 0.146 0.216 17 569091 2 0.038 0.046 0.187 18 569092 2 0.035 -0.089 0.152 19 568101 2 0.038 -0.156 0.091 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 568102 2 0.181 0.312 0.191 21 568111 2 0.005 0.012 0.030 22 568112 2 0.015 -0.043 0.110 23 568121 2 0.089 -0.012 0.273 24 568122 2 0.050 0.193 0.064 25 572131 2 0.101 0.111 0.277 26 572132 2 0.037 -0.020 0.154 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.070 0.088 0.160 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.054 0.128 0.090 MEDIAN 2 0.052 0.057 0.151 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.063 0.195 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.005 -0.156 0.028 LOWER HINGE 2 0.035 -0.003 0.091 UPPER HINGE 2 0.098 0.193 0.216 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.199 0.312 0.360 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.000 0.075 0.062 3.332 0.080 0.005 2 569012 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.092 0.305 4.175 0.100 -0.014 3 569021 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.077 0.279 3.276 0.088 -0.036 4 569022 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.078 -0.050 3.711 0.087 0.004 5 569031 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.099 -0.342 3.365 0.108 0.012 6 569032 1806 1978 173 1.000 0.099 -0.131 2.949 0.109 0.011 7 569041 1823 1978 156 1.000 0.084 -0.157 2.831 0.097 -0.002 8 569042 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.088 -0.215 3.422 0.096 -0.009 9 569051 1811 1978 168 1.000 0.090 0.046 3.468 0.100 0.016 10 569052 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.089 0.143 3.268 0.097 -0.003 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.077 0.785 3.984 0.085 -0.013 12 569062 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.082 -0.356 2.710 0.092 0.003 13 569071 1817 1978 162 1.000 0.067 -0.369 2.948 0.073 0.002 14 569072 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.095 -0.830 3.910 0.108 0.006 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.069 0.313 2.830 0.080 0.005 16 569082 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.094 0.069 2.901 0.107 -0.011 17 569091 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.082 0.620 3.346 0.092 0.003 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.086 0.628 3.328 0.092 0.005 19 568101 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.079 -0.319 2.897 0.084 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 1.000 0.082 -0.354 3.546 0.091 -0.010 21 568111 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.079 0.249 3.167 0.090 -0.002 22 568112 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.085 0.132 3.201 0.098 0.003 23 568121 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.086 0.178 2.696 0.102 -0.034 24 568122 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.119 -0.109 3.299 0.132 -0.004 25 572131 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.085 -0.325 2.443 0.102 -0.012 26 572132 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.064 0.033 3.865 0.071 0.019 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.085 0.011 3.264 0.095 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.011 0.364 0.432 0.013 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.084 0.040 3.288 0.094 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.013 0.568 0.567 0.015 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.064 -0.830 2.443 0.071 -0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.078 -0.319 2.901 0.087 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.090 0.249 3.468 0.102 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 1.000 0.119 0.785 4.175 0.132 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.457 0.090 0.005 0.026 2.885 0.222 0.696 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.222 SERIES 569022 AND 568121 169 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.696 SERIES 569052 AND 569091 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 36. 171. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.601 0.528 0.540 0.519 0.460 0.452 SDEV 0.000 0.119 0.108 0.109 0.112 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.020 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.931 0.955 0.965 0.965 0.957 0.955 NSS 9.0 18.8 23.2 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.059 0.080 3.013 0.072 -0.149 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.136 0.043 0.017 62 144 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.43 1.00 1.04 1.47 3.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.73 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.148 -0.016 -0.079 0.000 -0.004 0.123 0.048 -0.020 -0.084 -0.024 PACF -0.148 -0.039 -0.090 -0.028 -0.014 0.116 0.087 0.010 -0.065 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.139 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 -0.148 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.014 -0.091 -0.009 0.015 0.136 0.064 -0.023 -0.097 -0.047 PACF -0.004 -0.014 -0.091 -0.010 0.012 0.129 0.066 -0.016 -0.075 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.145 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.009 -0.004 -0.014 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.059 0.027 2.873 0.071 -0.119 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.118 0.135 -0.114 0.035 -0.009 0.131 0.037 -0.003 -0.097 -0.022 PACF -0.118 0.122 -0.088 -0.002 0.020 0.123 0.066 -0.022 -0.094 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.139 0.141 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.149 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.037 -0.104 0.124 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES