RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit021e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit021e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 377 1 Dimmie Schottland WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 377 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 200 5607-320 1828 1976 - 377 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 377022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1896 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 377031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1894 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 378081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1906 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 378082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1896 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 378091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1883 1883 / 1896 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 378092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1884 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 379111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 379112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 379122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 379132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 377011 1845 1976 132 1.171 0.701 0.465 2.562 0.280 0.841 2 377012 1865 1976 112 1.651 0.904 0.033 2.174 0.247 0.824 3 377022 1837 1974 138 1.392 0.721 0.791 3.647 0.254 0.790 4 377031 1843 1976 134 1.265 0.809 1.409 4.970 0.307 0.780 5 377032 1828 1976 149 1.137 0.815 3.062 14.962 0.278 0.774 6 377051 1838 1976 139 1.205 0.752 1.341 4.563 0.299 0.761 7 377052 1837 1967 131 1.492 0.720 0.301 2.512 0.224 0.837 8 378061 1900 1976 77 1.368 0.605 0.821 3.771 0.270 0.728 9 378071 1831 1976 146 1.165 0.503 0.813 4.107 0.265 0.713 10 378072 1859 1976 118 1.698 0.617 0.328 2.769 0.209 0.657 11 378081 1851 1976 126 1.008 0.702 0.984 3.594 0.304 0.806 12 378082 1838 1976 139 0.777 0.374 0.696 3.478 0.362 0.594 13 378091 1856 1976 121 1.588 0.757 0.427 2.974 0.222 0.772 14 378092 1832 1976 145 1.090 0.941 2.258 10.263 0.325 0.800 15 378101 1853 1976 124 0.834 0.360 0.382 2.585 0.247 0.737 16 378102 1857 1976 120 0.914 0.309 0.305 3.033 0.253 0.592 17 379111 1854 1976 123 1.148 0.764 0.984 4.130 0.329 0.814 18 379112 1863 1976 114 1.146 0.670 1.406 4.768 0.329 0.734 19 379121 1853 1976 124 1.400 0.409 -0.141 2.887 0.211 0.625 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 379122 1843 1976 134 1.239 0.381 0.051 3.513 0.235 0.513 21 379131 1864 1976 113 1.686 0.708 0.348 3.656 0.235 0.762 22 379132 1843 1976 134 0.965 0.390 0.431 2.910 0.288 0.678 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1828 TO 1976 149 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 1.243 0.632 0.795 4.265 0.271 0.733 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.268 0.189 0.752 2.897 0.043 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 1.188 0.701 0.580 3.553 0.268 0.762 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.310 0.348 0.656 1.243 0.069 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 77 0.777 0.309 -0.141 2.174 0.209 0.513 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 119 1.090 0.409 0.328 2.887 0.235 0.678 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 136 1.400 0.757 0.984 4.130 0.304 0.800 MAXIMUM VALUE 149 1.698 0.941 3.062 14.962 0.362 0.841 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.280 0.223 0.015 -0.684 3.825 -0.468 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.468 SERIES 377022 AND 378092 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 377031 AND 377051 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.208 0.252 0.207 SDEV 0.229 0.248 0.213 SERR 0.022 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.843 0.879 0.852 NSS 20.4 21.6 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1976 149 1.336 0.714 3.621 20.032 0.177 0.738 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.140 0.046 0.533 42 107 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.63 1.00 1.06 1.69 38.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 128. 18. 77. 120. 138. 149. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.733 0.503 0.434 0.447 0.401 0.367 0.289 0.200 0.216 0.186 PACF 0.733 -0.074 0.201 0.155 -0.025 0.100 -0.109 -0.068 0.151 -0.150 95% C.L. 0.164 0.236 0.263 0.282 0.300 0.314 0.326 0.332 0.336 0.339 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.699 0.836 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 377011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00377310 1.42219865 2 377012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00655461 2.02167463 3 377022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01223720 2.23458052 4 377031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01107711 2.00908732 5 377032 1 4.50753832 0.11827672 0.00000000 0.89623868 6 377051 1 2.09878850 0.03120853 0.00000000 0.73444825 7 377052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01341350 2.37697005 8 378061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00979520 1.75032461 9 378071 1 1.42487407 0.09153638 0.00000000 1.06291366 10 378072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00294687 1.87372875 11 378081 1 1.75591826 0.06121820 0.00000000 0.77463728 12 378082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062783 0.71839136 13 378091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00640146 1.18551981 14 378092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00288959 0.86764657 15 378101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00595213 1.20595992 16 378102 1 0.39039898 0.01143835 0.00000000 0.70245874 17 379111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01091182 0.44565445 18 379112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00172052 1.02270806 19 379121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183528 1.51518881 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 379122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048284 1.26592517 21 379131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01066305 2.29354620 22 379132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013567 0.96966267 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 377011 1845 1976 132 0.995 0.599 0.687 3.032 0.278 0.848 2 377012 1865 1976 112 0.995 0.541 0.035 1.985 0.245 0.820 3 377022 1837 1974 138 0.990 0.361 0.658 4.578 0.253 0.677 4 377031 1843 1976 134 1.001 0.504 1.197 5.234 0.312 0.720 5 377032 1828 1976 149 0.999 0.404 0.382 2.997 0.277 0.698 6 377051 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.460 1.052 4.891 0.296 0.676 7 377052 1837 1967 131 0.988 0.349 0.308 3.101 0.222 0.743 8 378061 1900 1976 77 0.996 0.393 0.535 3.396 0.267 0.667 9 378071 1831 1976 146 1.000 0.377 0.179 2.658 0.262 0.662 10 378072 1859 1976 118 0.999 0.362 0.411 2.754 0.207 0.655 11 378081 1851 1976 126 1.000 0.650 1.061 3.809 0.312 0.820 12 378082 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.506 0.676 3.652 0.408 0.629 13 378091 1856 1976 121 0.997 0.470 0.600 3.657 0.233 0.747 14 378092 1832 1976 145 1.006 0.992 3.338 16.682 0.326 0.794 15 378101 1853 1976 124 0.993 0.348 0.486 2.798 0.244 0.661 16 378102 1857 1976 120 1.000 0.325 0.327 3.536 0.250 0.557 17 379111 1854 1976 123 0.966 0.623 1.549 6.095 0.352 0.817 18 379112 1863 1976 114 0.999 0.607 1.423 4.914 0.361 0.729 19 379121 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.290 -0.050 2.977 0.209 0.621 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 379122 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.313 0.088 3.618 0.240 0.541 21 379131 1864 1976 113 0.996 0.374 0.490 3.827 0.232 0.709 22 379132 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.409 0.422 2.891 0.300 0.681 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 0.996 0.466 0.721 4.231 0.277 0.703 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.008 0.159 0.725 2.948 0.052 0.083 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 0.999 0.406 0.512 3.577 0.265 0.689 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.005 0.180 0.725 1.601 0.072 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 77 0.966 0.290 -0.050 1.985 0.207 0.541 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.995 0.361 0.327 2.977 0.240 0.661 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 138 1.000 0.541 1.052 4.578 0.312 0.747 MAXIMUM VALUE 149 1.006 0.992 3.338 16.682 0.408 0.848 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 377011 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 377012 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 377022 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 377031 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 377032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 377051 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 377052 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 378061 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 378071 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 378072 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 378081 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 378082 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 378091 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 378092 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 378101 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 378102 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 379111 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 379112 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 379121 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 379122 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 379131 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 379132 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 377011 1845 1976 132 1.010 0.511 0.728 3.564 0.280 0.744 2 377012 1865 1976 112 0.994 0.444 0.240 2.871 0.250 0.737 3 377022 1837 1974 138 0.998 0.342 0.444 4.039 0.253 0.627 4 377031 1843 1976 134 0.996 0.488 1.133 5.053 0.312 0.706 5 377032 1828 1976 149 0.998 0.385 0.359 2.971 0.276 0.660 6 377051 1838 1976 139 0.997 0.423 0.773 4.190 0.296 0.629 7 377052 1837 1967 131 0.995 0.318 0.099 2.931 0.221 0.687 8 378061 1900 1976 77 0.995 0.309 -0.032 3.468 0.267 0.483 9 378071 1831 1976 146 0.991 0.334 0.316 2.840 0.262 0.539 10 378072 1859 1976 118 0.994 0.246 0.351 3.419 0.208 0.373 11 378081 1851 1976 126 0.965 0.509 0.575 2.822 0.312 0.732 12 378082 1838 1976 139 0.993 0.482 0.549 3.166 0.408 0.601 13 378091 1856 1976 121 0.986 0.391 0.522 5.941 0.232 0.665 14 378092 1832 1976 145 0.979 0.540 0.989 3.831 0.326 0.750 15 378101 1853 1976 124 0.997 0.318 0.359 2.657 0.244 0.563 16 378102 1857 1976 120 0.999 0.318 0.210 3.279 0.250 0.541 17 379111 1854 1976 123 0.987 0.476 0.661 3.537 0.351 0.663 18 379112 1863 1976 114 0.993 0.465 0.689 3.377 0.359 0.554 19 379121 1853 1976 124 0.997 0.262 -0.092 3.387 0.209 0.513 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 379122 1843 1976 134 0.997 0.307 0.613 6.002 0.239 0.479 21 379131 1864 1976 113 0.992 0.317 0.295 4.216 0.232 0.604 22 379132 1843 1976 134 0.990 0.360 0.293 3.131 0.299 0.593 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 0.993 0.388 0.458 3.668 0.277 0.611 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.008 0.088 0.304 0.935 0.052 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 0.995 0.373 0.401 3.403 0.265 0.616 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.007 0.158 0.368 1.069 0.072 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 77 0.965 0.246 -0.092 2.657 0.208 0.373 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.991 0.318 0.293 2.971 0.239 0.541 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 138 0.997 0.476 0.661 4.039 0.312 0.687 MAXIMUM VALUE 149 1.010 0.540 1.133 6.002 0.408 0.750 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.273 0.158 0.010 -0.294 3.092 -0.231 0.677 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.231 SERIES 377052 AND 379111 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.677 SERIES 379131 AND 379132 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.215 0.261 0.209 SDEV 0.224 0.228 0.200 SERR 0.022 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.848 0.884 0.853 NSS 20.4 21.6 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1976 149 0.971 0.212 -0.672 4.056 0.170 0.566 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.352 0.190 0.125 64 85 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.54 1.01 1.08 1.62 3.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.562 0.293 0.101 0.010 -0.085 -0.147 -0.108 -0.150 -0.170 -0.097 PACF 0.562 -0.033 -0.074 -0.015 -0.094 -0.074 0.044 -0.126 -0.066 0.068 95% C.L. 0.164 0.209 0.220 0.221 0.221 0.222 0.225 0.226 0.229 0.232 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.331 0.574 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.612 0.377 0.192 0.081 -0.042 -0.178 -0.144 -0.180 -0.190 -0.139 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.612 2 0.611 0.003 3 0.611 0.042 -0.064 4 0.610 0.043 -0.052 -0.020 5 0.607 0.037 -0.047 0.047 -0.110 6 0.590 0.045 -0.055 0.053 -0.014 -0.157 7 0.606 0.046 -0.060 0.058 -0.019 -0.215 0.099 8 0.617 0.021 -0.062 0.065 -0.026 -0.210 0.168 -0.114 9 0.610 0.031 -0.075 0.064 -0.022 -0.214 0.169 -0.077 -0.060 10 0.613 0.036 -0.084 0.076 -0.020 -0.217 0.173 -0.079 -0.094 0.056 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1172.92 1104.88 1106.88 1108.26 1110.20 1110.39 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1108.66 1109.20 1109.26 1110.73 1112.27 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.612 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 37.50 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 160.01 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.612 0.375 0.230 0.141 0.086 0.053 0.032 0.020 0.012 0.0074 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 377011 1 0.653 0.803 2 377012 1 0.577 0.760 3 377022 1 0.401 0.631 4 377031 1 0.561 0.713 5 377032 1 0.468 0.666 6 377051 1 0.434 0.636 7 377052 1 0.476 0.688 8 378061 1 0.247 0.492 9 378071 1 0.324 0.560 10 378072 1 0.151 0.375 11 378081 1 0.540 0.734 12 378082 1 0.368 0.605 13 378091 1 0.479 0.666 14 378092 1 0.587 0.765 15 378101 1 0.364 0.584 16 378102 1 0.304 0.549 17 379111 1 0.445 0.667 18 379112 1 0.350 0.564 19 379121 1 0.273 0.523 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 379122 1 0.295 0.532 21 379131 1 0.386 0.614 22 379132 1 0.356 0.597 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.411 0.624 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.125 0.101 MEDIAN 1 0.393 0.623 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.155 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.151 0.375 LOWER HINGE 1 0.324 0.560 UPPER HINGE 1 0.479 0.688 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.653 0.803 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 377011 1845 1976 132 1.000 0.298 0.490 3.331 0.318 0.124 2 377012 1865 1976 112 1.000 0.288 0.147 2.705 0.313 0.040 3 377022 1837 1974 138 1.000 0.265 0.542 4.497 0.303 0.036 4 377031 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.342 0.917 4.593 0.330 0.233 5 377032 1828 1976 149 1.000 0.287 0.438 2.922 0.305 0.141 6 377051 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.326 0.858 4.525 0.335 0.145 7 377052 1837 1967 131 1.000 0.231 0.086 3.180 0.277 -0.038 8 378061 1900 1976 77 1.000 0.269 0.137 4.221 0.302 0.050 9 378071 1831 1976 146 1.000 0.276 0.411 3.415 0.329 -0.051 10 378072 1859 1976 118 1.000 0.228 0.419 4.193 0.240 0.043 11 378081 1851 1976 126 1.000 0.345 0.932 5.027 0.358 0.026 12 378082 1838 1976 139 1.001 0.381 0.222 3.046 0.438 0.034 13 378091 1856 1976 121 1.000 0.292 1.507 8.837 0.296 -0.166 14 378092 1832 1976 145 1.001 0.342 0.174 3.899 0.395 -0.066 15 378101 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.256 0.278 2.906 0.282 0.105 16 378102 1857 1976 120 1.000 0.266 0.508 3.772 0.279 0.036 17 379111 1854 1976 123 1.000 0.354 0.501 3.887 0.405 0.009 18 379112 1863 1976 114 1.000 0.382 0.936 4.317 0.388 0.111 19 379121 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.223 0.185 3.504 0.237 0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 379122 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.259 1.015 6.093 0.262 0.096 21 379131 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.250 0.225 4.018 0.264 0.075 22 379132 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.289 0.276 3.125 0.345 -0.014 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 1.000 0.293 0.509 4.091 0.318 0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.048 0.369 1.331 0.053 0.085 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.288 0.429 3.893 0.309 0.038 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.083 0.635 1.317 0.066 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 77 1.000 0.223 0.086 2.705 0.237 -0.166 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.259 0.222 3.180 0.279 0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 138 1.000 0.342 0.858 4.497 0.345 0.105 MAXIMUM VALUE 149 1.001 0.382 1.507 8.837 0.438 0.233 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.278 0.111 0.007 0.122 2.824 0.010 0.643 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.010 SERIES 377052 AND 378091 112 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.643 SERIES 379131 AND 379132 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.201 0.262 0.303 SDEV 0.158 0.147 0.144 SERR 0.015 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.837 0.885 0.905 NSS 20.4 21.6 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1976 149 0.984 0.172 -0.305 3.504 0.198 -0.018 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.365 0.170 0.064 54 95 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.55 1.00 1.12 1.67 4.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.018 0.025 -0.062 -0.005 -0.002 -0.114 0.008 -0.087 -0.108 -0.027 PACF -0.018 0.025 -0.061 -0.008 0.001 -0.118 0.004 -0.083 -0.130 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.170 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.023 -0.062 -0.006 -0.004 -0.115 0.005 -0.089 -0.110 -0.029 PACF 0.000 0.023 -0.062 -0.007 -0.001 -0.119 0.005 -0.085 -0.129 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.170 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1976 149 0.979 0.211 -0.556 3.688 0.165 0.568 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.564 0.301 0.104 0.016 -0.077 -0.164 -0.145 -0.170 -0.163 -0.090 PACF 0.564 -0.024 -0.082 -0.007 -0.090 -0.111 0.024 -0.099 -0.046 0.057 95% C.L. 0.164 0.210 0.221 0.222 0.222 0.223 0.226 0.229 0.232 0.235 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.336 0.579 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES