RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit021x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit021x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 377 1 Dimmie Schottland DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 377 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 200 5607-320 1828 1976 - 377 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 377022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1896 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 377031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1894 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 378081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1906 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 378082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1896 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 378091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1883 1883 / 1896 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 378092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1884 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 379111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 379112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 379122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 379132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 377011 1845 1976 132 0.813 0.124 -1.393 4.916 0.091 0.746 2 377012 1865 1976 112 0.773 0.134 -1.202 3.844 0.098 0.748 3 377022 1837 1974 138 0.694 0.121 -0.572 2.822 0.093 0.748 4 377031 1843 1976 134 0.778 0.097 0.254 2.313 0.102 0.474 5 377032 1828 1976 149 0.800 0.086 -0.779 5.194 0.101 0.315 6 377051 1838 1976 139 0.802 0.099 -0.103 2.238 0.101 0.472 7 377052 1837 1967 131 0.892 0.077 -0.845 4.395 0.066 0.544 8 378061 1900 1976 77 0.813 0.095 -0.532 3.080 0.086 0.600 9 378071 1831 1976 146 0.806 0.089 -0.492 3.254 0.091 0.519 10 378072 1859 1976 118 0.734 0.092 0.378 2.594 0.109 0.381 11 378081 1851 1976 126 0.808 0.089 0.102 2.408 0.096 0.418 12 378082 1838 1976 139 0.787 0.076 0.076 3.660 0.091 0.239 13 378091 1856 1976 121 0.808 0.097 -1.769 7.318 0.091 0.512 14 378092 1832 1976 145 0.769 0.104 -0.297 2.756 0.105 0.510 15 378101 1853 1976 124 0.826 0.079 -0.398 3.363 0.088 0.376 16 378102 1857 1976 120 0.822 0.081 -0.950 4.844 0.090 0.367 17 379111 1854 1976 123 0.819 0.111 -1.138 4.945 0.120 0.363 18 379112 1863 1976 114 0.839 0.079 0.335 3.588 0.100 0.170 19 379121 1853 1976 124 0.857 0.066 -0.007 3.109 0.074 0.311 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 379122 1843 1976 134 0.858 0.067 -0.819 5.361 0.067 0.337 21 379131 1864 1976 113 0.750 0.087 -0.179 2.719 0.098 0.418 22 379132 1843 1976 134 0.800 0.093 -1.078 4.471 0.096 0.466 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1828 TO 1976 149 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 126 0.802 0.093 -0.518 3.782 0.093 0.456 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.043 0.018 0.595 1.273 0.012 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 127 0.807 0.090 -0.512 3.475 0.095 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.044 0.020 0.943 2.089 0.010 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 77 0.694 0.066 -1.769 2.238 0.066 0.170 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 119 0.778 0.079 -0.950 2.756 0.090 0.363 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 136 0.822 0.099 -0.007 4.844 0.101 0.519 MAXIMUM VALUE 149 0.892 0.134 0.378 7.318 0.120 0.748 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.390 0.174 0.011 -0.209 2.632 -0.047 0.845 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.047 SERIES 377022 AND 379111 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.845 SERIES 377011 AND 377012 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.436 0.352 0.357 SDEV 0.177 0.203 0.189 SERR 0.017 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.940 0.921 0.924 NSS 20.4 21.6 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1976 149 0.799 0.066 -0.425 2.855 0.066 0.500 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.139 -0.050 0.119 59 90 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.44 1.00 1.07 1.51 5.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 128. 18. 77. 120. 138. 149. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.496 0.454 0.250 0.359 0.351 0.369 0.320 0.199 0.099 0.114 PACF 0.496 0.276 -0.073 0.235 0.165 0.065 0.060 -0.111 -0.145 0.025 95% C.L. 0.164 0.200 0.226 0.233 0.248 0.261 0.274 0.284 0.288 0.289 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.330 0.357 0.301 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 377011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00138571 0.90540713 2 377012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00232382 0.90459943 3 377022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00214741 0.84288436 4 377031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023869 0.76196414 5 377032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038248 0.77164972 6 377051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028857 0.78195810 7 377052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098714 0.95759368 8 378061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00167701 0.87839031 9 378071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012218 0.79684174 10 378072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113659 0.80135596 11 378081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063302 0.84834653 12 378082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032292 0.76398969 13 378091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000873 0.80550843 14 378092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053787 0.72858155 15 378101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021649 0.81267899 16 378102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028735 0.80419886 17 379111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105814 0.74838674 18 379112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087367 0.78544438 19 379121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011616 0.86395359 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 379122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017912 0.84494400 21 379131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029460 0.76634955 22 379132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080485 0.85381317 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 377011 1845 1976 132 1.000 0.144 -0.668 4.235 0.090 0.706 2 377012 1865 1976 112 0.999 0.151 -0.718 3.634 0.098 0.662 3 377022 1837 1974 138 0.999 0.123 -0.527 3.185 0.094 0.506 4 377031 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.124 0.255 2.396 0.102 0.464 5 377032 1828 1976 149 1.000 0.106 -0.848 5.369 0.100 0.297 6 377051 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.123 -0.111 2.357 0.100 0.465 7 377052 1837 1967 131 1.000 0.077 -0.447 3.391 0.065 0.418 8 378061 1900 1976 77 1.000 0.109 -0.425 2.844 0.085 0.512 9 378071 1831 1976 146 1.000 0.110 -0.518 3.283 0.090 0.514 10 378072 1859 1976 118 1.000 0.113 0.569 2.889 0.108 0.246 11 378081 1851 1976 126 1.000 0.106 0.070 2.487 0.099 0.323 12 378082 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.096 0.114 3.524 0.092 0.225 13 378091 1856 1976 121 1.000 0.123 -1.725 6.866 0.094 0.559 14 378092 1832 1976 145 1.000 0.133 -0.248 2.839 0.105 0.501 15 378101 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.095 -0.502 3.422 0.087 0.367 16 378102 1857 1976 120 1.000 0.098 -0.914 4.836 0.090 0.353 17 379111 1854 1976 123 1.000 0.136 -0.784 4.028 0.121 0.398 18 379112 1863 1976 114 1.000 0.090 0.107 3.542 0.098 0.109 19 379121 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.077 0.016 3.108 0.074 0.307 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 379122 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.079 -0.869 5.058 0.069 0.383 21 379131 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.115 -0.182 2.636 0.097 0.406 22 379132 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.113 -0.673 3.821 0.096 0.423 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 1.000 0.111 -0.410 3.625 0.093 0.416 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.021 0.503 1.102 0.012 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.111 -0.474 3.407 0.095 0.412 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.027 0.734 1.183 0.010 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 77 0.999 0.077 -1.725 2.357 0.065 0.109 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.096 -0.718 2.844 0.090 0.323 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 138 1.000 0.123 0.016 4.028 0.100 0.506 MAXIMUM VALUE 149 1.000 0.151 0.569 6.866 0.121 0.706 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 377011 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 377012 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 377022 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 377031 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 377032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 377051 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 377052 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 378061 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 378071 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 378072 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 378081 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 378082 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 378091 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 378092 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 378101 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 378102 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 379111 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 379112 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 379121 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 379122 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 379131 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 379132 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 377011 1845 1976 132 0.999 0.126 -0.735 4.808 0.090 0.607 2 377012 1865 1976 112 0.999 0.128 -0.503 4.628 0.098 0.508 3 377022 1837 1974 138 0.999 0.096 -0.858 4.776 0.094 0.239 4 377031 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.109 0.182 2.788 0.102 0.305 5 377032 1828 1976 149 1.000 0.102 -0.807 5.643 0.100 0.230 6 377051 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.103 0.056 3.022 0.100 0.242 7 377052 1837 1967 131 1.000 0.070 -0.108 2.927 0.065 0.317 8 378061 1900 1976 77 1.000 0.096 -0.466 2.937 0.085 0.372 9 378071 1831 1976 146 1.000 0.099 -0.049 3.384 0.090 0.387 10 378072 1859 1976 118 1.000 0.101 0.416 2.759 0.108 0.065 11 378081 1851 1976 126 1.000 0.102 0.142 2.755 0.099 0.273 12 378082 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.093 0.015 3.673 0.092 0.182 13 378091 1856 1976 121 0.999 0.117 -1.376 6.024 0.094 0.508 14 378092 1832 1976 145 0.999 0.125 -0.155 2.979 0.105 0.445 15 378101 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.086 -0.533 3.603 0.087 0.224 16 378102 1857 1976 120 1.000 0.097 -0.974 5.133 0.090 0.332 17 379111 1854 1976 123 0.999 0.127 -0.836 4.348 0.120 0.313 18 379112 1863 1976 114 1.000 0.084 0.028 3.078 0.098 -0.035 19 379121 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.068 0.014 2.996 0.074 0.112 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 379122 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.070 -1.193 6.793 0.069 0.226 21 379131 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.100 -0.016 3.204 0.097 0.191 22 379132 1843 1976 134 0.999 0.096 -0.304 4.115 0.096 0.161 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 1.000 0.100 -0.366 3.926 0.093 0.282 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.018 0.491 1.186 0.012 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.099 -0.230 3.493 0.095 0.257 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.016 0.823 1.797 0.010 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 77 0.999 0.068 -1.376 2.755 0.065 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 0.999 0.093 -0.807 2.979 0.090 0.191 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 138 1.000 0.109 0.015 4.776 0.100 0.372 MAXIMUM VALUE 149 1.000 0.128 0.416 6.793 0.120 0.607 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.405 0.129 0.009 -0.067 2.697 0.073 0.785 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.073 SERIES 378102 AND 379111 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.785 SERIES 377011 AND 377012 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.459 0.372 0.382 SDEV 0.176 0.195 0.162 SERR 0.017 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.946 0.928 0.931 NSS 20.4 21.6 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1976 149 0.999 0.067 0.149 3.151 0.067 0.214 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.075 -0.027 0.097 57 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.63 1.00 1.06 1.70 4.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.213 0.164 -0.119 0.071 0.102 0.131 0.105 -0.053 -0.132 -0.115 PACF 0.213 0.124 -0.187 0.121 0.124 0.032 0.069 -0.097 -0.134 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.164 0.171 0.175 0.177 0.178 0.180 0.182 0.184 0.184 0.187 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.135 0.223 0.185 -0.243 0.096 0.136 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.198 0.168 -0.117 0.075 0.098 0.157 0.115 -0.034 -0.158 -0.131 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.198 2 0.172 0.134 3 0.196 0.165 -0.183 4 0.218 0.146 -0.206 0.117 5 0.203 0.171 -0.224 0.091 0.122 6 0.195 0.165 -0.209 0.079 0.109 0.066 7 0.191 0.158 -0.215 0.094 0.097 0.052 0.070 8 0.197 0.162 -0.206 0.102 0.078 0.066 0.087 -0.089 9 0.182 0.176 -0.195 0.115 0.095 0.032 0.114 -0.057 -0.164 10 0.173 0.173 -0.189 0.117 0.100 0.039 0.102 -0.047 -0.153 -0.057 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 818.46 814.49 813.80 810.71 810.65 810.40 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 811.76 813.02 813.83 811.79 813.30 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.203 0.171 -0.224 0.091 0.122 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.41 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.203 0.212 -0.146 0.052 0.079 0.102 0.035 -0.006 -0.005 0.0089 0.018 0.010 0.002 -0.002 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.000 -.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 377011 5 0.404 0.500 0.173 0.035 0.041 -0.089 2 377012 5 0.298 0.454 0.119 -0.043 0.126 -0.069 3 377022 5 0.101 0.239 0.092 -0.110 -0.091 0.160 4 377031 5 0.189 0.316 0.108 -0.333 0.025 0.021 5 377032 5 0.103 0.243 0.101 -0.126 0.125 -0.099 6 377051 5 0.126 0.208 0.258 -0.084 0.006 -0.050 7 377052 5 0.141 0.285 0.153 -0.085 0.062 0.043 8 378061 5 0.211 0.346 0.138 -0.109 -0.189 0.024 9 378071 5 0.180 0.345 0.094 0.042 0.044 -0.025 10 378072 5 0.086 0.086 0.252 -0.153 0.018 0.046 11 378081 5 0.136 0.286 0.044 -0.180 0.063 -0.139 12 378082 5 0.110 0.177 0.092 -0.143 -0.206 0.129 13 378091 5 0.283 0.470 0.101 -0.083 0.131 -0.035 14 378092 5 0.256 0.347 0.215 -0.010 0.110 -0.073 15 378101 5 0.078 0.241 -0.038 -0.108 0.075 0.028 16 378102 5 0.144 0.323 0.117 -0.154 0.031 -0.042 17 379111 5 0.143 0.283 0.099 -0.009 0.162 -0.074 18 379112 5 0.058 -0.023 0.079 -0.208 -0.027 0.052 19 379121 5 0.095 0.134 0.156 -0.210 0.113 0.086 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 379122 5 0.137 0.237 0.036 -0.222 0.161 0.142 21 379131 5 0.070 0.176 0.046 -0.022 0.154 0.048 22 379132 5 0.142 0.178 0.275 -0.241 -0.004 0.101 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.159 0.266 0.123 -0.116 0.042 0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.086 0.124 0.077 0.094 0.102 0.084 MEDIAN 5 0.139 0.263 0.104 -0.109 0.053 0.023 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.089 0.167 0.064 0.137 0.119 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.058 -0.023 -0.038 -0.333 -0.206 -0.139 LOWER HINGE 5 0.101 0.178 0.092 -0.180 0.006 -0.069 UPPER HINGE 5 0.189 0.345 0.156 -0.043 0.125 0.052 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.404 0.500 0.275 0.042 0.162 0.160 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 377011 1845 1976 132 1.000 0.098 -0.399 3.734 0.116 -0.002 2 377012 1865 1976 112 1.000 0.108 -0.369 4.157 0.121 -0.003 3 377022 1837 1974 138 1.000 0.091 -0.808 5.711 0.102 0.003 4 377031 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.098 0.212 2.973 0.108 0.003 5 377032 1828 1976 149 1.000 0.097 -0.485 4.835 0.107 0.011 6 377051 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.096 -0.117 3.458 0.111 0.009 7 377052 1837 1967 131 1.000 0.065 -0.076 3.018 0.073 -0.001 8 378061 1900 1976 77 1.000 0.086 -0.394 2.502 0.096 0.014 9 378071 1831 1976 146 1.000 0.090 0.089 3.072 0.106 0.008 10 378072 1859 1976 118 1.000 0.097 0.508 3.462 0.102 0.005 11 378081 1851 1976 126 1.000 0.095 -0.035 2.577 0.109 -0.007 12 378082 1838 1976 139 1.000 0.088 0.044 3.333 0.096 0.002 13 378091 1856 1976 121 1.000 0.099 -0.441 4.017 0.119 0.000 14 378092 1832 1976 145 1.000 0.108 0.131 3.075 0.119 -0.003 15 378101 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.083 -0.530 3.318 0.094 0.000 16 378102 1857 1976 120 1.000 0.090 -0.551 3.917 0.098 0.004 17 379111 1854 1976 123 1.000 0.117 -0.543 3.179 0.131 0.004 18 379112 1863 1976 114 1.000 0.082 0.070 3.209 0.093 0.003 19 379121 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.065 0.124 2.782 0.075 -0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 379122 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.065 -0.580 4.255 0.075 -0.005 21 379131 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.097 0.017 3.393 0.103 0.003 22 379132 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.089 0.037 3.781 0.098 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 1.000 0.091 -0.186 3.534 0.102 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.013 0.335 0.747 0.015 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.093 -0.096 3.363 0.103 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.012 0.555 0.845 0.015 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 77 1.000 0.065 -0.808 2.502 0.073 -0.007 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 120 1.000 0.086 -0.485 3.072 0.096 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 138 1.000 0.098 0.070 3.917 0.111 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 149 1.000 0.117 0.508 5.711 0.131 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.416 0.116 0.008 -0.018 2.764 0.121 0.713 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.121 SERIES 378102 AND 379111 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.713 SERIES 377011 AND 377012 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.460 0.397 0.413 SDEV 0.163 0.168 0.147 SERR 0.016 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.946 0.934 0.939 NSS 20.4 21.6 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1976 149 1.000 0.062 0.137 3.178 0.072 -0.022 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.003 -0.001 0.065 55 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.62 1.00 1.13 1.75 4.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.00 0.88 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.022 0.040 -0.136 0.026 0.071 0.079 0.115 -0.091 -0.085 -0.069 PACF -0.022 0.040 -0.135 0.020 0.084 0.063 0.121 -0.075 -0.088 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.171 0.172 0.174 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.014 0.013 0.027 -0.006 0.068 0.115 -0.081 -0.076 -0.073 PACF -0.005 -0.014 0.012 0.027 -0.005 0.069 0.115 -0.079 -0.077 -0.085 95% C.L. 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.167 0.168 0.169 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.007 -0.005 -0.015 0.012 0.028 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1976 149 0.999 0.065 0.079 3.093 0.067 0.197 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.196 0.153 -0.118 0.072 0.119 0.163 0.118 -0.061 -0.111 -0.094 PACF 0.196 0.120 -0.177 0.116 0.140 0.070 0.067 -0.109 -0.101 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.164 0.170 0.174 0.176 0.177 0.179 0.183 0.185 0.185 0.187 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.128 0.202 0.176 -0.228 0.088 0.151 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES