RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit023e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit023e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 384 1 Mar Lodge (LADE) WIDTH_EARLY LADE - 384 2 Great Britain European Larch 400 5659-330 1846 1976 - 384 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 384011 1847 1976 130 0.734 0.642 2.473 10.005 0.324 0.861 2 384012 1879 1976 98 1.275 0.597 0.965 4.466 0.244 0.746 3 384021 1846 1976 131 1.115 0.918 1.924 6.524 0.341 0.872 4 384022 1860 1976 117 1.355 0.640 2.194 8.975 0.258 0.667 5 384051 1871 1975 105 1.716 0.928 0.672 3.038 0.300 0.786 6 384052 1878 1975 98 1.875 0.828 0.387 2.626 0.299 0.679 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 6 FROM 1846 TO 1976 131 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.345 0.759 1.436 5.939 0.294 0.769 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.412 0.150 0.871 3.087 0.037 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 111 1.315 0.735 1.445 5.495 0.299 0.766 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.601 0.278 1.522 5.937 0.067 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.734 0.597 0.387 2.626 0.244 0.667 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 1.115 0.640 0.672 3.038 0.258 0.679 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 130 1.716 0.918 2.194 8.975 0.324 0.861 MAXIMUM VALUE 131 1.875 0.928 2.473 10.005 0.341 0.872 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 15 0.611 0.116 0.030 0.212 2.826 0.419 0.808 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.419 SERIES 384011 AND 384022 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.808 SERIES 384021 AND 384022 117 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.34 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 15. RBAR 0.320 0.610 0.303 SDEV 0.182 0.100 0.145 SERR 0.074 0.026 0.038 EPS 0.734 0.904 0.723 NSS 5.9 6.0 6.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1976 131 1.422 0.704 1.103 4.135 0.221 0.803 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.551 0.313 0.239 12 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.49 7.99 1.07 2.27 10.26 100.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.19 0.00 0.81 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 111. 32. 98. 98. 130. 131. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.796 0.731 0.711 0.684 0.663 0.655 0.635 0.571 0.519 0.455 PACF 0.796 0.265 0.213 0.110 0.086 0.095 0.041 -0.115 -0.095 -0.149 95% C.L. 0.175 0.263 0.319 0.364 0.402 0.434 0.463 0.489 0.509 0.525 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.699 0.521 0.121 0.251 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 384011 1 2.16659403 0.06997535 0.00000000 0.50363231 2 384012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01153198 1.84613931 3 384021 1 3.03914809 0.02375407 0.00000000 0.19312023 4 384022 1 3.06482220 0.11540127 0.00000000 1.14132690 5 384051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02195656 2.87950730 6 384052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01895179 2.81352186 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 384011 1847 1976 130 1.004 0.604 1.377 6.844 0.321 0.754 2 384012 1879 1976 98 0.992 0.389 1.328 5.319 0.242 0.641 3 384021 1846 1976 131 1.012 0.376 1.470 9.651 0.335 0.263 4 384022 1860 1976 117 1.001 0.289 0.337 2.895 0.252 0.405 5 384051 1871 1975 105 0.992 0.374 0.667 3.492 0.300 0.532 6 384052 1878 1975 98 1.005 0.367 0.488 3.107 0.296 0.481 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.001 0.400 0.944 5.218 0.291 0.512 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.008 0.106 0.503 2.651 0.037 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 111 1.003 0.375 0.997 4.405 0.298 0.506 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.013 0.022 0.889 3.737 0.070 0.236 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.992 0.289 0.337 2.895 0.242 0.263 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 0.992 0.367 0.488 3.107 0.252 0.405 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 130 1.005 0.389 1.377 6.844 0.321 0.641 MAXIMUM VALUE 131 1.012 0.604 1.470 9.651 0.335 0.754 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 384011 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 384012 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 384021 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 384022 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 384051 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 384052 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 384011 1847 1976 130 0.984 0.459 0.633 4.141 0.320 0.639 2 384012 1879 1976 98 0.996 0.342 0.906 3.869 0.241 0.558 3 384021 1846 1976 131 0.999 0.343 0.674 5.970 0.336 0.241 4 384022 1860 1976 117 0.997 0.254 0.343 3.095 0.252 0.203 5 384051 1871 1975 105 0.997 0.353 0.393 2.934 0.300 0.482 6 384052 1878 1975 98 0.992 0.323 0.332 3.223 0.296 0.353 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 0.994 0.346 0.547 3.872 0.291 0.413 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.005 0.066 0.230 1.130 0.037 0.176 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 111 0.996 0.342 0.513 3.546 0.298 0.418 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.005 0.030 0.331 1.046 0.068 0.317 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.984 0.254 0.332 2.934 0.241 0.203 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 0.992 0.323 0.343 3.095 0.252 0.241 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 130 0.997 0.353 0.674 4.141 0.320 0.558 MAXIMUM VALUE 131 0.999 0.459 0.906 5.970 0.336 0.639 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 15 0.319 0.133 0.034 1.327 6.071 0.125 0.681 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.125 SERIES 384012 AND 384051 97 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.681 SERIES 384051 AND 384052 98 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.34 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 15. RBAR 0.334 0.365 0.306 SDEV 0.137 0.125 0.168 SERR 0.056 0.032 0.043 EPS 0.746 0.775 0.726 NSS 5.9 6.0 6.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1976 131 1.002 0.262 0.401 2.852 0.223 0.403 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.248 0.146 0.109 21 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.14 3.33 1.02 1.29 4.63 47.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.400 0.227 0.058 0.095 0.016 0.006 0.042 -0.012 0.009 -0.066 PACF 0.400 0.080 -0.070 0.094 -0.048 -0.011 0.067 -0.067 0.026 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.175 0.201 0.209 0.209 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.211 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.169 0.406 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.313 0.196 -0.006 0.066 0.003 0.007 -0.022 0.010 0.060 0.020 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.313 2 0.279 0.108 3 0.290 0.138 -0.106 4 0.299 0.126 -0.130 0.084 5 0.301 0.124 -0.128 0.089 -0.019 6 0.301 0.125 -0.130 0.091 -0.014 -0.017 7 0.300 0.125 -0.129 0.090 -0.013 -0.014 -0.009 8 0.301 0.126 -0.129 0.089 -0.011 -0.017 -0.014 0.018 9 0.299 0.126 -0.128 0.089 -0.016 -0.008 -0.022 -0.002 0.067 10 0.301 0.126 -0.128 0.089 -0.017 -0.006 -0.026 0.001 0.074 -0.026 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 694.60 683.10 683.55 684.08 685.16 687.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 689.07 691.06 693.02 694.44 696.35 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.313 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.79 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.86 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.313 0.098 0.031 0.010 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 384011 1 0.429 0.641 2 384012 1 0.324 0.569 3 384021 1 0.061 0.242 4 384022 1 0.044 0.206 5 384051 1 0.233 0.482 6 384052 1 0.127 0.354 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.203 0.416 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.154 0.177 MEDIAN 1 0.180 0.418 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.263 0.328 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.044 0.206 LOWER HINGE 1 0.061 0.242 UPPER HINGE 1 0.324 0.569 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.429 0.641 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 384011 1847 1976 130 1.001 0.350 0.729 5.561 0.386 -0.101 2 384012 1879 1976 98 1.000 0.280 0.327 3.685 0.308 -0.001 3 384021 1846 1976 131 1.000 0.332 0.823 6.270 0.358 -0.013 4 384022 1860 1976 117 1.000 0.248 0.300 3.088 0.280 -0.006 5 384051 1871 1975 105 1.000 0.309 -0.461 3.778 0.369 -0.010 6 384052 1878 1975 98 1.000 0.302 0.005 3.586 0.352 -0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.304 0.287 4.328 0.342 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.036 0.474 1.273 0.040 0.038 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 111 1.000 0.306 0.313 3.731 0.355 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.000 0.052 0.724 1.975 0.061 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.248 -0.461 3.088 0.280 -0.101 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 98 1.000 0.280 0.005 3.586 0.308 -0.015 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.332 0.729 5.561 0.369 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 131 1.001 0.350 0.823 6.270 0.386 -0.001 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 15 0.385 0.118 0.030 2.237 9.033 0.280 0.750 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.280 SERIES 384021 AND 384052 98 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.750 SERIES 384051 AND 384052 98 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.34 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 15. 15. RBAR 0.416 0.398 0.336 SDEV 0.117 0.126 0.151 SERR 0.048 0.032 0.039 EPS 0.807 0.799 0.752 NSS 5.9 6.0 6.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1976 131 1.000 0.231 0.247 3.717 0.262 -0.067 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.152 0.082 0.129 20 111 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.08 4.70 1.01 1.51 6.21 64.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.19 0.00 0.81 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.067 0.107 -0.095 0.076 -0.024 0.017 0.055 -0.019 0.036 -0.053 PACF -0.067 0.103 -0.083 0.056 0.001 -0.004 0.070 -0.022 0.025 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.175 0.176 0.177 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.181 0.181 0.181 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 0.100 -0.086 0.069 -0.019 0.020 0.054 -0.014 0.031 -0.055 PACF 0.006 0.100 -0.088 0.062 -0.003 0.000 0.068 -0.025 0.024 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.178 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 0.179 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1976 131 1.002 0.245 0.541 3.108 0.212 0.336 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.334 0.182 -0.005 0.059 0.008 0.031 0.048 0.001 0.000 -0.080 PACF 0.334 0.079 -0.099 0.084 -0.018 0.014 0.051 -0.045 0.004 -0.081 95% C.L. 0.175 0.193 0.198 0.198 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.199 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.120 0.339 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES