RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit024p.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit024p.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 387 1 Glen Affric LATEWOOD_PERCENT PISY - 387 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 300 5717-455 1735 1976 - 387 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 387012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 1 GAPS / 1793 1806 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 388061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 387011 1735 1976 242 3.324 1.271 2.094 9.243 0.239 0.634 2 387012 1751 1976 226 3.031 0.799 0.849 6.347 0.243 0.310 3 387021 1766 1976 211 3.577 1.200 1.011 3.657 0.240 0.537 4 387022 1813 1976 164 3.113 0.822 0.795 3.921 0.237 0.248 5 387031 1808 1976 169 3.339 1.193 1.084 4.432 0.330 0.309 6 387032 1809 1976 168 3.100 0.970 1.313 7.404 0.281 0.281 7 387041 1787 1975 189 3.965 0.887 -0.070 2.877 0.202 0.431 8 387042 1766 1976 211 4.114 1.324 0.351 2.811 0.224 0.662 9 387051 1829 1976 148 3.411 0.660 -0.170 2.766 0.201 0.203 10 387052 1808 1976 169 3.775 0.867 0.175 2.818 0.245 0.215 11 388061 1816 1975 160 3.451 1.073 0.972 4.086 0.251 0.484 12 388062 1826 1976 151 3.437 1.210 0.788 3.723 0.276 0.517 13 388071 1812 1976 165 3.926 0.901 0.586 3.119 0.227 0.220 14 388072 1785 1976 192 3.630 1.106 0.993 4.202 0.249 0.434 15 388081 1810 1976 167 4.792 1.225 0.230 2.263 0.182 0.601 16 388082 1843 1950 108 5.289 1.519 0.448 2.919 0.196 0.614 17 388091 1829 1976 148 4.244 0.965 0.656 3.140 0.203 0.380 18 388092 1827 1976 150 4.473 0.892 0.819 4.093 0.154 0.528 19 388101 1828 1976 149 3.421 0.971 0.690 3.679 0.241 0.427 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 388102 1776 1976 201 3.352 1.099 1.907 10.778 0.299 0.278 21 389111 1776 1976 201 4.009 1.223 1.206 5.007 0.236 0.472 22 389112 1758 1976 219 3.893 1.238 1.700 7.718 0.283 0.352 23 389121 1840 1976 137 3.665 1.044 1.600 6.986 0.190 0.612 24 389131 1769 1976 208 3.736 1.182 1.317 6.548 0.225 0.557 25 389132 1825 1976 152 3.747 0.668 0.267 3.067 0.183 0.219 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 25 FROM 1735 TO 1976 242 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 3.753 1.052 0.864 4.704 0.233 0.421 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.534 0.211 0.586 2.246 0.040 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 168 3.665 1.073 0.819 3.921 0.237 0.431 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.554 0.318 0.758 3.280 0.047 0.256 MINIMUM VALUE 108 3.031 0.660 -0.170 2.263 0.154 0.203 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 3.411 0.892 0.448 3.067 0.202 0.281 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 201 3.965 1.210 1.206 6.347 0.249 0.537 MAXIMUM VALUE 242 5.289 1.519 2.094 10.778 0.330 0.662 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.375 0.170 0.010 -0.449 3.218 -0.152 0.745 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.152 SERIES 387021 AND 387042 211 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.745 SERIES 388071 AND 388072 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.17 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 45. 120. 276. 300. 300. 276. RBAR 0.429 0.382 0.303 0.337 0.370 0.473 0.460 SDEV 0.114 0.231 0.155 0.181 0.140 0.144 0.151 SERR 0.066 0.034 0.014 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.873 0.906 0.907 0.927 0.936 0.957 0.955 NSS 9.2 15.6 22.4 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1976 242 3.670 0.772 1.451 8.706 0.178 0.328 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.428 0.227 0.038 84 158 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.89 1.00 1.10 1.99 40.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 168. 50. 108. 151. 201. 242. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.326 0.167 0.147 0.330 0.385 0.232 0.162 0.177 0.181 0.241 PACF 0.326 0.068 0.083 0.285 0.243 0.037 0.036 0.034 -0.038 0.072 95% C.L. 0.129 0.142 0.145 0.147 0.159 0.174 0.179 0.181 0.184 0.187 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.112 0.328 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 387011 1 1.93368423 0.00681521 0.00000000 2.38016129 2 387012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014222 3.06793475 3 387021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00986951 2.53094101 4 387022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067736 3.05710530 5 387031 1 0.61797053 0.01517774 0.00000000 3.11829901 6 387032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00685434 2.52092743 7 387041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00059409 3.90879941 8 387042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01643883 5.85611773 9 387051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00213934 3.57012415 10 387052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00639220 3.23133779 11 388061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00892702 2.72546577 12 388062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01581962 2.23452973 13 388071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00692034 3.35124826 14 388072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00858812 2.80166340 15 388081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01258472 3.73444057 16 388082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02322430 4.02325726 17 388091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01089719 3.43228078 18 388092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01062755 3.67102027 19 388101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01114867 2.58519220 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 388102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00208782 3.14131904 21 389111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00444583 3.56022549 22 389112 1 0.90645373 0.01768067 0.00000000 3.66562366 23 389121 1 1.65732467 0.07295740 0.00000000 3.50513554 24 389131 1 0.83921939 0.01801271 0.00000000 3.51892996 25 389132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00324213 3.49934554 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 387011 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.339 1.643 7.761 0.238 0.577 2 387012 1751 1976 226 1.000 0.271 0.938 6.164 0.240 0.361 3 387021 1766 1976 211 1.004 0.301 1.031 4.439 0.239 0.425 4 387022 1813 1976 164 1.000 0.263 0.734 3.760 0.235 0.247 5 387031 1808 1976 169 1.000 0.347 0.865 3.882 0.328 0.289 6 387032 1809 1976 168 0.999 0.306 2.119 12.415 0.279 0.197 7 387041 1787 1975 189 1.000 0.224 -0.076 2.870 0.201 0.427 8 387042 1766 1976 211 1.002 0.220 -0.058 2.994 0.223 0.231 9 387051 1829 1976 148 1.000 0.191 -0.172 2.912 0.200 0.191 10 387052 1808 1976 169 1.000 0.219 0.429 3.873 0.243 0.118 11 388061 1816 1975 160 1.000 0.280 0.728 3.337 0.251 0.329 12 388062 1826 1976 151 1.002 0.291 0.677 3.228 0.275 0.320 13 388071 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.214 0.439 2.698 0.226 0.102 14 388072 1785 1976 192 1.002 0.281 1.030 4.440 0.247 0.349 15 388081 1810 1976 167 1.001 0.235 0.852 4.629 0.181 0.495 16 388082 1843 1950 108 1.001 0.278 1.910 10.274 0.194 0.501 17 388091 1829 1976 148 1.000 0.194 0.175 2.763 0.202 0.209 18 388092 1827 1976 150 1.000 0.165 0.389 3.269 0.153 0.350 19 388101 1828 1976 149 1.001 0.244 0.272 2.909 0.239 0.273 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 388102 1776 1976 201 1.000 0.333 2.277 13.185 0.297 0.279 21 389111 1776 1976 201 1.000 0.306 1.599 6.913 0.235 0.446 22 389112 1758 1976 219 1.000 0.308 1.521 6.821 0.282 0.314 23 389121 1840 1976 137 1.000 0.255 0.720 4.084 0.189 0.526 24 389131 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.307 1.124 5.518 0.224 0.530 25 389132 1825 1976 152 1.000 0.175 0.279 2.852 0.182 0.173 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 1.001 0.262 0.858 5.120 0.232 0.330 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.001 0.052 0.678 2.975 0.040 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.271 0.734 3.882 0.235 0.320 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.001 0.085 0.734 3.170 0.047 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.999 0.165 -0.172 2.698 0.153 0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.220 0.389 2.994 0.201 0.231 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 201 1.001 0.306 1.124 6.164 0.247 0.427 MAXIMUM VALUE 242 1.004 0.347 2.277 13.185 0.328 0.577 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 387011 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 387012 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 387021 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 387022 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 387031 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 387032 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 387041 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 387042 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 387051 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 387052 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 388061 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 388062 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 388071 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 388072 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 388081 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 388082 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 388091 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 388092 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 388101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 388102 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 389111 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 389112 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 389121 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 389131 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 389132 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 387011 1735 1976 242 0.995 0.297 1.378 6.827 0.238 0.452 2 387012 1751 1976 226 0.997 0.239 0.807 5.695 0.240 0.202 3 387021 1766 1976 211 0.998 0.227 0.363 3.223 0.239 0.105 4 387022 1813 1976 164 0.999 0.246 0.535 3.219 0.235 0.167 5 387031 1808 1976 169 0.996 0.325 0.782 3.788 0.328 0.206 6 387032 1809 1976 168 0.999 0.292 2.050 12.470 0.279 0.127 7 387041 1787 1975 189 0.998 0.207 0.139 3.253 0.201 0.312 8 387042 1766 1976 211 0.999 0.212 -0.203 3.048 0.223 0.178 9 387051 1829 1976 148 0.999 0.182 -0.275 2.885 0.200 0.098 10 387052 1808 1976 169 0.999 0.213 0.371 3.549 0.243 0.062 11 388061 1816 1975 160 0.996 0.253 0.700 3.191 0.251 0.179 12 388062 1826 1976 151 0.999 0.282 0.619 3.049 0.274 0.285 13 388071 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.206 0.340 2.579 0.226 0.050 14 388072 1785 1976 192 0.998 0.241 0.791 4.237 0.247 0.149 15 388081 1810 1976 167 0.997 0.191 0.053 2.775 0.181 0.282 16 388082 1843 1950 108 0.997 0.227 0.715 4.330 0.194 0.370 17 388091 1829 1976 148 0.999 0.184 0.115 2.646 0.202 0.115 18 388092 1827 1976 150 0.999 0.156 0.496 3.826 0.153 0.264 19 388101 1828 1976 149 0.999 0.232 0.255 3.090 0.239 0.190 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 388102 1776 1976 201 0.998 0.311 1.953 11.559 0.297 0.214 21 389111 1776 1976 201 0.996 0.253 1.356 6.329 0.235 0.241 22 389112 1758 1976 219 0.997 0.281 1.337 6.203 0.282 0.204 23 389121 1840 1976 137 0.998 0.231 0.727 4.604 0.189 0.437 24 389131 1769 1976 208 0.996 0.284 1.130 5.569 0.224 0.474 25 389132 1825 1976 152 0.999 0.167 0.175 2.799 0.182 0.096 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 0.998 0.237 0.668 4.590 0.232 0.218 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.001 0.045 0.599 2.563 0.040 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 168 0.998 0.232 0.619 3.549 0.235 0.202 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.002 0.074 0.552 2.520 0.046 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.995 0.156 -0.275 2.579 0.153 0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 0.997 0.207 0.255 3.049 0.201 0.127 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 201 0.999 0.281 0.807 5.569 0.247 0.282 MAXIMUM VALUE 242 1.000 0.325 2.050 12.470 0.328 0.474 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.353 0.103 0.006 0.016 3.395 0.034 0.668 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.034 SERIES 388082 AND 389121 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.668 SERIES 388071 AND 388072 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.17 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 45. 120. 276. 300. 300. 276. RBAR 0.419 0.340 0.321 0.362 0.384 0.401 0.475 SDEV 0.113 0.207 0.157 0.159 0.130 0.126 0.138 SERR 0.065 0.031 0.014 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.869 0.889 0.914 0.934 0.940 0.944 0.957 NSS 9.2 15.6 22.4 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1976 242 0.985 0.177 1.060 6.172 0.178 0.178 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.345 0.169 0.009 75 167 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.53 1.00 1.09 1.62 24.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.177 0.015 -0.007 0.186 0.216 0.101 0.021 0.021 0.050 0.142 PACF 0.177 -0.017 -0.007 0.195 0.159 0.042 0.009 -0.005 -0.014 0.088 95% C.L. 0.129 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.137 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.178 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.068 0.000 0.003 0.064 0.093 0.064 0.035 -0.034 0.014 0.142 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.068 2 0.068 -0.005 3 0.068 -0.005 0.003 4 0.068 -0.005 -0.001 0.064 5 0.062 -0.005 -0.001 0.058 0.085 6 0.058 -0.008 0.000 0.058 0.082 0.054 7 0.056 -0.010 -0.002 0.058 0.082 0.052 0.029 8 0.057 -0.008 0.001 0.061 0.082 0.052 0.031 -0.042 9 0.058 -0.008 0.001 0.060 0.081 0.052 0.031 -0.042 0.008 10 0.057 -0.003 -0.003 0.053 0.071 0.044 0.031 -0.041 0.001 0.128 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1845.63 1846.51 1848.51 1850.51 1851.51 1851.75 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1853.05 1854.85 1856.43 1858.41 1856.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 387011 0 0.204 2 387012 0 0.041 3 387021 0 0.011 4 387022 0 0.029 5 387031 0 0.043 6 387032 0 0.016 7 387041 0 0.097 8 387042 0 0.032 9 387051 0 0.010 10 387052 0 0.004 11 388061 0 0.032 12 388062 0 0.087 13 388071 0 0.003 14 388072 0 0.022 15 388081 0 0.080 16 388082 0 0.153 17 388091 0 0.013 18 388092 0 0.071 19 388101 0 0.037 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 388102 0 0.046 21 389111 0 0.058 22 389112 0 0.042 23 389121 0 0.197 24 389131 0 0.227 25 389132 0 0.009 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.063 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.065 MEDIAN 0 0.041 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.003 LOWER HINGE 0 0.016 UPPER HINGE 0 0.080 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.227 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 387011 1735 1976 242 1.000 0.297 1.378 6.827 0.236 0.452 2 387012 1751 1976 226 1.000 0.239 0.807 5.695 0.239 0.202 3 387021 1766 1976 211 1.000 0.227 0.363 3.223 0.238 0.105 4 387022 1813 1976 164 1.000 0.246 0.535 3.219 0.235 0.167 5 387031 1808 1976 169 1.000 0.325 0.782 3.788 0.327 0.206 6 387032 1809 1976 168 1.000 0.292 2.050 12.470 0.279 0.127 7 387041 1787 1975 189 1.000 0.207 0.139 3.253 0.200 0.312 8 387042 1766 1976 211 1.000 0.212 -0.203 3.048 0.223 0.178 9 387051 1829 1976 148 1.000 0.182 -0.275 2.885 0.199 0.098 10 387052 1808 1976 169 1.000 0.213 0.371 3.549 0.243 0.062 11 388061 1816 1975 160 1.000 0.253 0.700 3.191 0.250 0.179 12 388062 1826 1976 151 1.000 0.282 0.619 3.049 0.274 0.285 13 388071 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.206 0.340 2.579 0.226 0.050 14 388072 1785 1976 192 1.000 0.241 0.791 4.237 0.247 0.149 15 388081 1810 1976 167 1.000 0.191 0.053 2.775 0.180 0.282 16 388082 1843 1950 108 1.000 0.227 0.715 4.330 0.193 0.370 17 388091 1829 1976 148 1.000 0.184 0.115 2.646 0.202 0.115 18 388092 1827 1976 150 1.000 0.156 0.496 3.826 0.153 0.264 19 388101 1828 1976 149 1.000 0.232 0.255 3.090 0.239 0.190 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 388102 1776 1976 201 1.000 0.311 1.953 11.559 0.297 0.214 21 389111 1776 1976 201 1.000 0.253 1.356 6.329 0.234 0.241 22 389112 1758 1976 219 1.000 0.281 1.337 6.203 0.281 0.204 23 389121 1840 1976 137 1.000 0.231 0.727 4.604 0.188 0.437 24 389131 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.284 1.130 5.569 0.223 0.474 25 389132 1825 1976 152 1.000 0.167 0.175 2.799 0.182 0.096 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 176 1.000 0.237 0.668 4.590 0.231 0.218 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.000 0.045 0.599 2.563 0.040 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.232 0.619 3.549 0.235 0.202 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.000 0.074 0.552 2.520 0.046 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.156 -0.275 2.579 0.153 0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.207 0.255 3.049 0.200 0.127 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 201 1.000 0.281 0.807 5.569 0.247 0.282 MAXIMUM VALUE 242 1.000 0.325 2.050 12.470 0.327 0.474 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 300 0.353 0.103 0.006 0.016 3.395 0.034 0.668 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.034 SERIES 388082 AND 389121 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.668 SERIES 388071 AND 388072 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.17 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 45. 120. 276. 300. 300. 276. RBAR 0.419 0.340 0.321 0.362 0.384 0.401 0.475 SDEV 0.113 0.207 0.157 0.159 0.130 0.126 0.138 SERR 0.065 0.031 0.014 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.869 0.889 0.914 0.934 0.940 0.944 0.957 NSS 9.2 15.6 22.4 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1976 242 0.987 0.177 1.064 6.190 0.177 0.178 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.347 0.169 0.008 74 168 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.56 1.00 1.09 1.65 24.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.177 0.014 -0.007 0.186 0.216 0.101 0.021 0.020 0.050 0.142 PACF 0.177 -0.018 -0.007 0.194 0.159 0.042 0.009 -0.005 -0.014 0.089 95% C.L. 0.129 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.137 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.178 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1976 242 0.987 0.177 1.064 6.190 0.177 0.178 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.177 0.014 -0.007 0.186 0.216 0.101 0.021 0.020 0.050 0.142 PACF 0.177 -0.018 -0.007 0.194 0.159 0.042 0.009 -0.005 -0.014 0.089 95% C.L. 0.129 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.137 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.178 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES