RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit026e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit026e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 570 1 Coulin WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 570 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 250 5732-521 1671 1978 - 570 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 570042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 570062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 570071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 570072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 570081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 1 GAPS / 1876 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 570082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1734 1734 / 1793 1799 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 570092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 570101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1837 1840 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 0.953 0.478 0.772 3.203 0.220 0.827 2 570012 1840 1978 139 0.966 0.644 0.349 2.170 0.207 0.878 3 570021 1794 1978 185 0.645 0.397 1.017 3.796 0.231 0.886 4 570022 1687 1978 292 0.526 0.294 1.620 7.040 0.243 0.796 5 570031 1702 1978 277 0.742 0.418 1.044 3.598 0.220 0.857 6 570032 1830 1978 149 0.563 0.389 1.418 4.604 0.214 0.917 7 570041 1851 1978 128 0.906 0.337 0.660 2.907 0.169 0.804 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.178 0.488 0.986 3.907 0.170 0.828 9 570051 1823 1912 90 0.982 0.592 0.946 3.369 0.222 0.873 10 570052 1793 1978 186 0.660 0.305 1.129 3.999 0.217 0.811 11 570061 1742 1978 237 0.398 0.297 1.934 7.357 0.333 0.819 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.515 0.292 1.262 4.771 0.353 0.823 13 570071 1690 1960 271 0.482 0.408 2.151 10.177 0.293 0.825 14 570072 1806 1920 115 0.255 0.155 1.486 4.506 0.339 0.786 15 570081 1739 1966 228 0.497 0.379 1.618 5.191 0.259 0.911 16 570082 1705 1978 274 0.587 0.325 2.658 12.265 0.212 0.812 17 570091 1851 1940 90 0.728 0.590 1.356 3.926 0.302 0.870 18 570092 1809 1978 170 0.637 0.298 1.584 5.397 0.238 0.776 19 570101 1734 1976 243 0.629 0.304 1.392 6.185 0.262 0.737 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 0.746 0.774 1.931 6.174 0.238 0.930 21 570111 1833 1978 146 0.932 0.399 1.391 5.423 0.205 0.780 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1671 TO 1978 308 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.692 0.408 1.367 5.236 0.245 0.835 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.227 0.145 0.530 2.416 0.052 0.051 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.645 0.389 1.391 4.604 0.231 0.825 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.380 0.173 0.602 2.378 0.048 0.070 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.255 0.155 0.349 2.170 0.169 0.737 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.526 0.304 1.017 3.796 0.214 0.804 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 0.906 0.478 1.618 6.174 0.262 0.873 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.178 0.774 2.658 12.265 0.353 0.930 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.339 0.321 0.022 -0.632 2.601 -0.502 0.850 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.502 SERIES 570012 AND 570081 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.850 SERIES 570051 AND 570052 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.247 0.375 0.314 0.312 0.142 0.260 0.161 0.221 0.285 SDEV 0.238 0.289 0.252 0.290 0.208 0.268 0.239 0.262 0.244 SERR 0.075 0.075 0.042 0.048 0.028 0.023 0.016 0.020 0.021 EPS 0.686 0.836 0.812 0.845 0.731 0.875 0.801 0.853 0.884 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.800 0.580 2.990 13.646 0.146 0.893 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.003 0.001 0.361 103 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.72 1.00 1.09 1.80 22.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 185. 97. 90. 146. 243. 308. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.890 0.810 0.767 0.726 0.712 0.709 0.711 0.667 0.584 0.543 PACF 0.890 0.082 0.156 0.034 0.158 0.104 0.116 -0.159 -0.236 0.049 95% C.L. 0.114 0.183 0.225 0.257 0.282 0.305 0.325 0.345 0.361 0.373 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.858 0.668 -0.020 0.059 0.019 0.052 0.027 0.164 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 570011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00785656 1.56219506 2 570012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01364712 1.92105412 3 570021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00419656 1.03568566 4 570022 1 1.53051519 0.13252763 0.00000000 0.48924586 5 570031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00377655 1.26699817 6 570032 1 1.34517539 0.02433104 0.00000000 0.20584184 7 570041 1 0.86859393 0.04385895 0.00000000 0.75545269 8 570042 1 1.77292669 0.01052746 0.00000000 0.36333394 9 570051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02002346 1.89295626 10 570052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00368247 1.00404239 11 570061 1 0.90400338 0.02050558 0.00000000 0.21487334 12 570062 1 0.65893078 0.01852334 0.00000000 0.35961816 13 570071 1 1.22962666 0.00911316 0.00000000 0.02062764 14 570072 1 0.62551636 0.07319960 0.00000000 0.18322280 15 570081 1 1.46622133 0.03384834 0.00000000 0.27154371 16 570082 1 1.38412392 0.03663993 0.00000000 0.44875470 17 570091 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 570092 1 1.02634096 0.04269732 0.00000000 0.48616812 19 570101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056414 0.70381242 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 570102 1 3.03691506 0.01896169 0.00000000 0.23241094 21 570111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00525121 1.31842983 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 0.998 0.307 0.135 2.354 0.219 0.632 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.204 1.334 6.003 41.768 0.215 0.682 3 570021 1794 1978 185 0.978 0.433 0.694 3.522 0.230 0.789 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.000 0.486 1.137 5.100 0.243 0.800 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.016 0.371 0.539 3.256 0.219 0.698 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.373 1.612 7.061 0.213 0.732 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.320 0.956 3.685 0.168 0.726 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.209 0.296 2.942 0.170 0.491 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.104 0.560 4.000 21.385 0.221 0.735 10 570052 1793 1978 186 1.006 0.326 0.503 3.188 0.216 0.648 11 570061 1742 1978 237 0.998 0.467 1.155 5.246 0.331 0.669 12 570062 1722 1943 222 1.000 0.422 0.063 2.889 0.351 0.657 13 570071 1690 1960 271 0.983 0.469 0.763 3.811 0.292 0.697 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.001 0.359 0.323 3.794 0.336 0.297 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.002 0.431 0.819 3.388 0.253 0.740 16 570082 1705 1978 274 0.999 0.279 0.255 3.065 0.213 0.562 17 570091 1851 1940 90 0.998 0.439 0.860 3.449 0.300 0.599 18 570092 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.312 0.001 2.584 0.232 0.608 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.459 1.017 4.792 0.257 0.725 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.018 0.337 0.824 5.479 0.237 0.592 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.330 1.056 4.647 0.204 0.659 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.015 0.430 1.096 6.543 0.244 0.654 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.050 0.223 1.398 8.996 0.051 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.373 0.819 3.685 0.230 0.669 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.003 0.132 0.732 1.912 0.043 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.978 0.209 0.001 2.354 0.168 0.297 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.999 0.326 0.323 3.188 0.215 0.608 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.002 0.459 1.056 5.100 0.257 0.726 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.204 1.334 6.003 41.768 0.351 0.800 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 570011 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 570012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 570021 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 570022 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 570031 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 570032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 570041 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 570042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 570051 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 570052 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 570061 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 570062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 570071 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 570072 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 570081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 570082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 570091 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 570092 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 570101 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 570102 -67 206 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 570111 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 0.995 0.282 0.043 2.296 0.219 0.564 2 570012 1840 1978 139 0.981 0.437 1.458 6.397 0.212 0.733 3 570021 1794 1978 185 0.982 0.356 0.879 4.078 0.229 0.683 4 570022 1687 1978 292 0.988 0.437 0.845 3.937 0.243 0.753 5 570031 1702 1978 277 0.997 0.339 0.400 2.842 0.219 0.668 6 570032 1830 1978 149 0.995 0.343 1.304 5.757 0.213 0.695 7 570041 1851 1978 128 0.990 0.231 0.754 3.164 0.167 0.541 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.206 0.252 2.949 0.169 0.477 9 570051 1823 1912 90 0.994 0.267 0.943 4.990 0.218 0.505 10 570052 1793 1978 186 0.992 0.269 0.338 3.462 0.216 0.512 11 570061 1742 1978 237 0.993 0.405 0.927 4.553 0.332 0.562 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.996 0.415 0.212 3.158 0.351 0.618 13 570071 1690 1960 271 0.993 0.451 0.687 3.420 0.292 0.636 14 570072 1806 1920 115 0.997 0.351 0.317 3.865 0.336 0.261 15 570081 1739 1966 228 0.992 0.303 0.415 3.669 0.253 0.399 16 570082 1705 1978 274 0.997 0.262 0.238 3.362 0.213 0.496 17 570091 1851 1940 90 0.998 0.437 0.923 3.646 0.300 0.598 18 570092 1809 1978 170 0.997 0.296 0.018 2.963 0.232 0.553 19 570101 1734 1976 243 0.987 0.403 1.079 6.289 0.257 0.660 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 0.997 0.311 1.183 7.398 0.237 0.534 21 570111 1833 1978 146 0.994 0.289 0.779 3.732 0.204 0.584 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 0.993 0.337 0.666 4.092 0.243 0.573 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.005 0.074 0.419 1.340 0.051 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.994 0.339 0.754 3.669 0.229 0.564 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.005 0.123 0.609 1.389 0.044 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.981 0.206 0.018 2.296 0.167 0.261 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.992 0.282 0.317 3.164 0.213 0.512 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 0.997 0.405 0.927 4.553 0.257 0.660 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.000 0.451 1.458 7.398 0.351 0.753 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.184 0.147 0.010 -0.176 2.866 -0.233 0.632 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.233 SERIES 570072 AND 570111 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.632 SERIES 570101 AND 570102 243 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.259 0.264 0.397 0.323 0.149 0.166 0.153 0.221 0.273 SDEV 0.254 0.255 0.158 0.201 0.177 0.192 0.194 0.222 0.208 SERR 0.080 0.066 0.026 0.033 0.024 0.016 0.013 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.699 0.753 0.862 0.852 0.743 0.798 0.792 0.853 0.877 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.977 0.201 0.476 4.896 0.139 0.656 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.356 0.227 0.063 93 215 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.70 1.00 1.09 1.79 10.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.654 0.392 0.206 0.101 0.013 -0.052 -0.105 -0.089 -0.095 -0.086 PACF 0.654 -0.061 -0.045 0.001 -0.059 -0.045 -0.055 0.040 -0.053 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.114 0.155 0.168 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.174 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.430 0.654 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.610 0.310 0.123 0.033 -0.031 -0.088 -0.140 -0.129 -0.101 -0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.610 2 0.670 -0.099 3 0.666 -0.072 -0.039 4 0.666 -0.073 -0.037 -0.003 5 0.666 -0.075 -0.041 0.030 -0.049 6 0.663 -0.073 -0.043 0.025 -0.007 -0.063 7 0.658 -0.073 -0.042 0.022 -0.012 -0.016 -0.071 8 0.659 -0.073 -0.042 0.022 -0.012 -0.016 -0.076 0.007 9 0.659 -0.074 -0.042 0.022 -0.012 -0.016 -0.077 0.015 -0.012 10 0.659 -0.074 -0.042 0.022 -0.012 -0.016 -0.077 0.015 -0.014 0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2315.97 2174.80 2173.77 2175.30 2177.29 2178.54 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2179.30 2179.73 2181.71 2183.67 2185.67 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.670 -0.099 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 37.79 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 160.75 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.670 0.350 0.168 0.078 0.036 0.016 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.0007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 570011 2 0.359 0.439 0.223 2 570012 2 0.667 0.591 0.259 3 570021 2 0.478 0.689 -0.001 4 570022 2 0.571 0.687 0.088 5 570031 2 0.453 0.638 0.049 6 570032 2 0.505 0.715 -0.025 7 570041 2 0.321 0.440 0.188 8 570042 2 0.234 0.439 0.080 9 570051 2 0.264 0.514 -0.009 10 570052 2 0.268 0.537 -0.040 11 570061 2 0.328 0.521 0.081 12 570062 2 0.415 0.592 0.044 13 570071 2 0.431 0.568 0.126 14 570072 2 0.079 0.243 0.072 15 570081 2 0.195 0.395 0.016 16 570082 2 0.262 0.442 0.111 17 570091 2 0.400 0.615 -0.027 18 570092 2 0.314 0.571 -0.027 19 570101 2 0.470 0.643 0.060 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 570102 2 0.300 0.462 0.135 21 570111 2 0.345 0.613 -0.047 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.365 0.541 0.065 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.134 0.116 0.087 MEDIAN 2 0.345 0.568 0.060 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.185 0.173 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.079 0.243 -0.047 LOWER HINGE 2 0.268 0.442 -0.009 UPPER HINGE 2 0.453 0.615 0.111 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.667 0.715 0.259 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.226 0.204 2.471 0.258 0.021 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.254 1.067 5.743 0.258 0.084 3 570021 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.258 0.552 3.209 0.281 0.000 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.000 0.285 0.465 4.773 0.304 0.000 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.251 0.346 3.693 0.280 0.004 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.245 0.672 4.594 0.273 -0.006 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.191 0.610 3.053 0.208 -0.011 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.180 0.364 3.914 0.204 0.003 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.000 0.229 0.664 4.041 0.256 0.005 10 570052 1793 1978 186 1.000 0.230 0.514 3.470 0.252 -0.004 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.000 0.332 0.625 4.475 0.380 -0.002 12 570062 1722 1943 222 1.000 0.325 -0.012 3.281 0.390 -0.010 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.000 0.338 0.875 5.234 0.341 -0.012 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.000 0.338 0.389 4.256 0.362 0.006 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.000 0.277 0.638 5.940 0.296 -0.002 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.226 0.045 3.587 0.256 -0.009 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.000 0.350 0.761 4.080 0.367 -0.007 18 570092 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.245 -0.004 3.515 0.287 0.002 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.288 0.671 5.581 0.313 -0.025 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.000 0.261 0.773 5.702 0.292 0.006 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.234 0.714 3.988 0.255 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.265 0.521 4.219 0.291 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.049 0.287 0.978 0.052 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.254 0.610 4.041 0.281 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.000 0.058 0.308 1.258 0.056 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.180 -0.012 2.471 0.204 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.230 0.364 3.515 0.256 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.288 0.672 4.773 0.313 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.000 0.350 1.067 5.940 0.390 0.084 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.191 0.125 0.009 -0.124 3.291 -0.237 0.514 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.237 SERIES 570072 AND 570091 70 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.514 SERIES 570101 AND 570102 243 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.265 0.318 0.262 0.235 0.151 0.154 0.182 0.222 0.264 SDEV 0.183 0.126 0.130 0.145 0.125 0.166 0.179 0.152 0.147 SERR 0.058 0.033 0.022 0.024 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.706 0.799 0.770 0.787 0.746 0.784 0.823 0.854 0.872 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.993 0.144 0.194 4.654 0.152 0.187 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.240 0.153 0.060 97 211 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.68 1.00 1.07 1.75 4.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.187 0.000 -0.034 -0.001 -0.029 -0.057 -0.142 -0.036 -0.048 -0.010 PACF 0.187 -0.036 -0.029 0.011 -0.033 -0.048 -0.128 0.011 -0.053 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.114 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.036 0.187 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.006 -0.031 0.010 -0.026 -0.027 -0.137 -0.002 -0.049 0.010 PACF -0.001 0.006 -0.031 0.010 -0.026 -0.028 -0.136 -0.005 -0.051 0.001 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.117 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.001 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.993 0.179 0.330 4.761 0.130 0.604 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.602 0.289 0.103 0.014 -0.059 -0.123 -0.177 -0.135 -0.117 -0.090 PACF 0.602 -0.115 -0.036 -0.011 -0.070 -0.074 -0.085 0.043 -0.062 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.114 0.150 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.162 0.163 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.372 0.672 -0.115 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 6.45 MINUTES