RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit026l.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit026l.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 570 1 Coulin WIDTH_LATE PISY - 570 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 250 5732-521 1671 1978 - 570 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 570042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 570062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 570071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 570072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 570081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 1 GAPS / 1876 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 570082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1734 1734 / 1793 1799 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 570092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 570101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1837 1840 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 0.399 0.194 1.220 4.166 0.322 0.550 2 570012 1840 1978 139 0.307 0.233 1.550 6.455 0.331 0.734 3 570021 1794 1978 185 0.289 0.187 1.233 4.202 0.338 0.725 4 570022 1687 1978 292 0.163 0.098 1.358 5.381 0.391 0.623 5 570031 1702 1978 277 0.249 0.188 1.837 6.700 0.369 0.789 6 570032 1830 1978 149 0.320 0.178 0.981 4.046 0.395 0.626 7 570041 1851 1978 128 0.307 0.149 1.165 4.266 0.374 0.405 8 570042 1807 1978 172 0.366 0.185 0.784 3.138 0.362 0.603 9 570051 1823 1912 90 0.460 0.239 0.602 2.657 0.292 0.735 10 570052 1793 1978 186 0.303 0.127 0.729 3.291 0.287 0.623 11 570061 1742 1978 237 0.340 0.233 2.577 14.761 0.340 0.744 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.493 0.235 0.814 3.408 0.258 0.791 13 570071 1690 1960 271 0.225 0.198 2.269 9.455 0.428 0.706 14 570072 1806 1920 115 0.194 0.109 0.761 3.329 0.392 0.589 15 570081 1739 1966 228 0.218 0.162 1.738 5.540 0.369 0.680 16 570082 1705 1978 274 0.187 0.100 1.609 8.299 0.445 0.430 17 570091 1851 1940 90 0.456 0.382 2.312 8.586 0.445 0.713 18 570092 1809 1978 170 0.222 0.139 1.470 5.730 0.501 0.622 19 570101 1734 1976 243 0.385 0.250 2.484 14.941 0.373 0.581 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 0.250 0.290 2.634 10.536 0.373 0.851 21 570111 1833 1978 146 0.524 0.602 5.545 35.245 0.361 0.551 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1671 TO 1978 308 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.317 0.213 1.699 7.816 0.369 0.651 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.105 0.112 1.092 7.220 0.057 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.307 0.188 1.470 5.540 0.369 0.626 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.160 0.086 1.288 4.540 0.055 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.163 0.098 0.602 2.657 0.258 0.405 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.225 0.149 0.981 4.046 0.338 0.589 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 0.385 0.235 2.269 8.586 0.392 0.734 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 0.524 0.602 5.545 35.245 0.501 0.851 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.332 0.235 0.016 -0.669 2.780 -0.319 0.777 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.319 SERIES 570051 AND 570102 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.777 SERIES 570091 AND 570111 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.181 0.197 0.347 0.254 0.198 0.360 0.352 0.216 0.271 SDEV 0.267 0.304 0.231 0.257 0.268 0.169 0.227 0.212 0.242 SERR 0.085 0.078 0.038 0.043 0.036 0.014 0.016 0.016 0.021 EPS 0.595 0.675 0.834 0.804 0.803 0.918 0.919 0.849 0.876 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.314 0.185 3.133 17.324 0.283 0.711 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.284 0.174 0.117 83 225 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 2.23 1.01 1.10 3.33 136.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 185. 97. 90. 146. 243. 308. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.709 0.504 0.348 0.314 0.314 0.371 0.369 0.342 0.328 0.311 PACF 0.709 0.002 -0.019 0.146 0.091 0.170 0.025 0.022 0.088 0.029 95% C.L. 0.114 0.161 0.181 0.189 0.196 0.202 0.211 0.219 0.226 0.232 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.514 0.717 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 570011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00137914 0.50610387 2 570012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00379351 0.57223648 3 570021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00136134 0.41600999 4 570022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024987 0.12644188 5 570031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00129090 0.42842489 6 570032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00274333 0.52534735 7 570041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038655 0.33165109 8 570042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00218081 0.55441189 9 570051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00734338 0.79423475 10 570052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065978 0.36459285 11 570061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00206507 0.58603877 12 570062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140950 0.65189540 13 570071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00152948 0.43004707 14 570072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00133555 0.27152660 15 570081 1 0.38814235 0.02800336 0.00000000 0.14597164 16 570082 1 0.36957294 0.08633234 0.00000000 0.17038691 17 570091 1 0.89425147 0.01780159 0.00000000 0.01381525 18 570092 1 0.25178793 0.01364021 0.00000000 0.12026308 19 570101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080094 0.48583448 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 570102 1 0.88621318 0.01671224 0.00000000 0.07978190 21 570111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00464506 0.86504203 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 0.999 0.448 1.141 4.201 0.320 0.527 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.019 0.632 2.102 9.151 0.329 0.696 3 570021 1794 1978 185 0.987 0.537 0.902 3.330 0.336 0.672 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.001 0.612 1.786 8.309 0.389 0.579 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.006 0.547 1.145 4.221 0.368 0.619 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.004 0.429 0.982 4.139 0.392 0.416 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.485 1.276 4.793 0.371 0.406 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.001 0.414 0.749 3.432 0.358 0.433 9 570051 1823 1912 90 0.999 0.307 0.868 3.721 0.289 0.323 10 570052 1793 1978 186 0.999 0.387 0.547 3.250 0.286 0.570 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.002 0.479 1.721 8.777 0.340 0.564 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.995 0.423 0.667 3.314 0.255 0.747 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.131 0.888 2.786 14.447 0.430 0.681 14 570072 1806 1920 115 0.986 0.486 0.797 3.549 0.387 0.476 15 570081 1739 1966 228 0.999 0.600 1.994 8.107 0.381 0.508 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.472 0.801 4.025 0.437 0.323 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.008 0.657 1.417 4.398 0.438 0.578 18 570092 1809 1978 170 1.001 0.574 1.110 4.364 0.506 0.502 19 570101 1734 1976 243 0.996 0.584 1.793 10.187 0.371 0.553 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.031 0.614 1.879 9.910 0.371 0.667 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.020 0.893 4.848 30.080 0.358 0.508 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.009 0.546 1.491 7.129 0.367 0.540 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.030 0.146 0.961 6.103 0.057 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.001 0.537 1.145 4.364 0.371 0.553 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.007 0.164 0.925 5.056 0.053 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.986 0.307 0.547 3.250 0.255 0.323 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.999 0.448 0.868 3.721 0.336 0.476 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.006 0.612 1.793 8.777 0.389 0.619 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.131 0.893 4.848 30.080 0.506 0.747 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 570011 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 570012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 570021 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 570022 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 570031 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 570032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 570041 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 570042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 570051 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 570052 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 570061 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 570062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 570071 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 570072 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 570081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 570082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 570091 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 570092 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 570101 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 570102 -67 206 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 570111 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 0.995 0.426 1.170 4.627 0.320 0.476 2 570012 1840 1978 139 0.979 0.488 1.227 4.619 0.328 0.600 3 570021 1794 1978 185 0.978 0.450 0.990 3.704 0.336 0.575 4 570022 1687 1978 292 0.985 0.551 1.561 7.050 0.390 0.562 5 570031 1702 1978 277 0.992 0.502 0.918 3.519 0.368 0.567 6 570032 1830 1978 149 0.994 0.398 0.784 3.760 0.392 0.351 7 570041 1851 1978 128 0.983 0.389 0.955 3.966 0.371 0.220 8 570042 1807 1978 172 0.996 0.394 0.763 3.963 0.358 0.382 9 570051 1823 1912 90 0.998 0.294 0.722 3.473 0.290 0.282 10 570052 1793 1978 186 0.991 0.337 0.516 3.267 0.286 0.460 11 570061 1742 1978 237 0.997 0.466 1.739 9.146 0.340 0.545 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.994 0.380 0.610 3.365 0.255 0.656 13 570071 1690 1960 271 0.994 0.588 1.297 4.915 0.430 0.523 14 570072 1806 1920 115 0.991 0.359 0.290 3.266 0.387 0.097 15 570081 1739 1966 228 0.991 0.474 1.483 6.124 0.381 0.413 16 570082 1705 1978 274 0.997 0.443 0.599 3.722 0.438 0.274 17 570091 1851 1940 90 0.990 0.600 1.214 3.979 0.438 0.561 18 570092 1809 1978 170 0.987 0.501 0.816 3.953 0.506 0.358 19 570101 1734 1976 243 0.993 0.574 3.122 21.488 0.371 0.481 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 0.991 0.566 2.728 16.600 0.371 0.618 21 570111 1833 1978 146 0.974 0.699 4.811 30.096 0.358 0.435 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 0.990 0.470 1.348 7.076 0.367 0.449 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.007 0.100 1.050 7.039 0.057 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.991 0.466 0.990 3.966 0.371 0.476 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.008 0.157 0.720 2.420 0.054 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.974 0.294 0.290 3.266 0.255 0.097 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.987 0.394 0.763 3.704 0.336 0.358 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 0.994 0.551 1.483 6.124 0.390 0.562 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 0.998 0.699 4.811 30.096 0.506 0.656 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.293 0.137 0.009 0.066 2.510 -0.016 0.608 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.016 SERIES 570071 AND 570091 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.608 SERIES 570011 AND 570052 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.212 0.202 0.380 0.257 0.211 0.359 0.361 0.254 0.296 SDEV 0.238 0.278 0.217 0.268 0.256 0.150 0.163 0.206 0.215 SERR 0.075 0.072 0.036 0.045 0.035 0.013 0.011 0.016 0.018 EPS 0.642 0.683 0.853 0.807 0.815 0.918 0.922 0.875 0.889 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.951 0.304 1.193 6.947 0.276 0.385 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.572 0.409 -0.025 100 208 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 1.00 1.00 1.13 2.13 21.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.384 0.239 0.082 0.071 -0.003 -0.037 0.003 -0.047 -0.077 -0.104 PACF 0.384 0.107 -0.049 0.037 -0.044 -0.042 0.046 -0.059 -0.060 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.114 0.130 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.137 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.159 0.343 0.107 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.282 0.206 0.037 0.069 0.053 -0.005 -0.019 -0.062 -0.134 -0.104 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.282 2 0.243 0.138 3 0.251 0.152 -0.057 4 0.253 0.144 -0.069 0.049 5 0.252 0.147 -0.074 0.040 0.035 6 0.253 0.148 -0.078 0.047 0.047 -0.049 7 0.252 0.149 -0.077 0.046 0.050 -0.044 -0.020 8 0.252 0.147 -0.075 0.048 0.046 -0.037 -0.008 -0.048 9 0.246 0.146 -0.079 0.053 0.052 -0.045 0.010 -0.019 -0.117 10 0.242 0.146 -0.079 0.052 0.053 -0.044 0.007 -0.015 -0.110 -0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2603.56 2580.12 2576.22 2577.22 2578.48 2580.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2581.38 2583.26 2584.53 2582.26 2583.99 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.243 0.138 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.68 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.71 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.243 0.197 0.081 0.047 0.023 0.012 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.0008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 570011 2 0.250 0.395 0.171 2 570012 2 0.455 0.377 0.375 3 570021 2 0.338 0.574 0.005 4 570022 2 0.363 0.478 0.174 5 570031 2 0.368 0.432 0.244 6 570032 2 0.189 0.259 0.266 7 570041 2 0.136 0.154 0.300 8 570042 2 0.161 0.334 0.124 9 570051 2 0.145 0.310 -0.093 10 570052 2 0.263 0.423 0.083 11 570061 2 0.308 0.518 0.061 12 570062 2 0.488 0.474 0.286 13 570071 2 0.300 0.444 0.163 14 570072 2 0.032 0.085 0.143 15 570081 2 0.178 0.418 0.008 16 570082 2 0.085 0.250 0.091 17 570091 2 0.333 0.591 -0.042 18 570092 2 0.144 0.315 0.124 19 570101 2 0.246 0.453 0.072 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 570102 2 0.389 0.651 -0.053 21 570111 2 0.239 0.540 -0.239 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.258 0.404 0.108 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.121 0.142 0.147 MEDIAN 2 0.250 0.423 0.124 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.176 0.162 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.032 0.085 -0.239 LOWER HINGE 2 0.161 0.315 0.008 UPPER HINGE 2 0.338 0.478 0.174 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.488 0.651 0.375 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.369 1.040 5.202 0.390 -0.004 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.360 1.303 5.566 0.365 0.024 3 570021 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.367 0.658 3.723 0.420 0.001 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.000 0.439 1.370 8.809 0.477 -0.034 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.399 0.791 4.163 0.436 0.006 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.359 0.419 3.062 0.430 0.014 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.362 0.791 3.287 0.384 0.011 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.361 0.587 4.081 0.410 0.006 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.000 0.281 0.622 3.562 0.329 -0.022 10 570052 1793 1978 186 1.000 0.298 0.734 3.576 0.326 -0.021 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.000 0.388 1.629 10.553 0.410 0.002 12 570062 1722 1943 222 1.000 0.272 0.436 3.319 0.298 -0.024 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.001 0.487 1.371 7.147 0.505 -0.011 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.000 0.354 0.198 3.119 0.392 0.004 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.000 0.430 1.316 5.820 0.451 0.008 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.424 0.621 3.585 0.471 0.005 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.000 0.492 1.353 5.981 0.569 0.000 18 570092 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.464 0.599 3.549 0.545 0.007 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.496 3.979 32.374 0.421 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.001 0.441 1.672 8.639 0.444 0.015 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.005 0.600 4.491 30.811 0.468 0.054 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.402 1.237 7.616 0.426 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.001 0.079 1.084 8.251 0.068 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.388 0.791 4.163 0.421 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.000 0.081 0.749 3.585 0.078 0.019 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.272 0.198 3.062 0.298 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.360 0.621 3.562 0.390 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.441 1.370 7.147 0.468 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.005 0.600 4.491 32.374 0.569 0.054 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.352 0.104 0.007 0.209 2.762 0.085 0.599 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.085 SERIES 570012 AND 570111 139 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.599 SERIES 570091 AND 570111 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.195 0.308 0.457 0.287 0.238 0.368 0.402 0.336 0.373 SDEV 0.248 0.206 0.140 0.129 0.168 0.134 0.126 0.142 0.141 SERR 0.078 0.053 0.023 0.022 0.023 0.012 0.009 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.617 0.791 0.888 0.829 0.837 0.920 0.934 0.912 0.919 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.975 0.268 1.458 10.013 0.299 -0.071 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.559 0.349 -0.044 99 209 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 1.01 1.01 1.08 2.09 13.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.071 -0.024 -0.046 0.047 -0.041 -0.041 0.021 0.006 -0.008 -0.047 PACF -0.071 -0.029 -0.050 0.039 -0.038 -0.047 0.017 0.001 -0.008 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.002 -0.048 0.039 -0.042 -0.041 0.017 0.005 -0.014 -0.053 PACF -0.001 -0.002 -0.048 0.039 -0.042 -0.043 0.021 -0.001 -0.015 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.001 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.975 0.280 1.521 9.125 0.262 0.270 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.270 0.192 0.037 0.054 -0.028 -0.037 -0.007 -0.021 -0.045 -0.077 PACF 0.270 0.129 -0.047 0.034 -0.049 -0.035 0.027 -0.018 -0.041 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.114 0.122 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.090 0.235 0.129 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES