RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit026n.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit026n.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 570 1 Coulin DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 570 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 250 5732-521 1671 1978 - 570 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 570042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 570062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 570071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1699 1703 / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 570072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 570081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 1 GAPS / 1876 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 570082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1734 1734 / 1793 1799 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 570092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 570101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1837 1840 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 570111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 0.380 0.028 0.666 4.047 0.052 0.560 2 570012 1840 1978 139 0.355 0.028 0.186 2.563 0.057 0.567 3 570021 1794 1978 185 0.362 0.027 0.591 4.879 0.055 0.481 4 570022 1687 1978 292 0.334 0.030 0.315 2.854 0.055 0.684 5 570031 1702 1978 277 0.368 0.029 0.068 4.115 0.060 0.519 6 570032 1830 1978 149 0.367 0.032 0.215 2.865 0.070 0.434 7 570041 1851 1978 128 0.343 0.023 0.192 3.621 0.059 0.376 8 570042 1807 1978 172 0.316 0.022 0.555 3.729 0.053 0.452 9 570051 1823 1912 90 0.373 0.032 -0.155 3.994 0.063 0.552 10 570052 1793 1978 186 0.399 0.042 -0.093 2.536 0.057 0.759 11 570061 1742 1978 237 0.491 0.045 0.020 3.665 0.069 0.497 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.454 0.059 0.600 2.973 0.067 0.766 13 570071 1690 1960 271 0.402 0.047 1.039 4.415 0.064 0.734 14 570072 1806 1920 115 0.388 0.038 0.576 3.475 0.069 0.606 15 570081 1739 1966 228 0.415 0.041 0.725 3.326 0.054 0.758 16 570082 1705 1978 274 0.370 0.027 0.166 2.815 0.045 0.651 17 570091 1851 1940 90 0.362 0.047 0.698 4.127 0.080 0.652 18 570092 1809 1978 170 0.366 0.039 0.345 2.929 0.060 0.743 19 570101 1734 1976 243 0.384 0.032 0.671 3.329 0.059 0.606 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 0.337 0.038 0.883 4.468 0.062 0.740 21 570111 1833 1978 146 0.351 0.042 1.321 5.713 0.081 0.511 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1671 TO 1978 308 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.377 0.036 0.456 3.640 0.062 0.602 STANDARD DEVIATION 65 0.040 0.009 0.380 0.816 0.009 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.368 0.032 0.555 3.621 0.060 0.606 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 99 0.032 0.014 0.486 1.186 0.012 0.223 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.316 0.022 -0.155 2.536 0.045 0.376 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 140 0.355 0.028 0.186 2.929 0.055 0.511 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 0.388 0.042 0.671 4.115 0.067 0.734 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 0.491 0.059 1.321 5.713 0.081 0.766 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.123 0.248 0.017 -0.201 2.593 -0.587 0.656 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.587 SERIES 570052 AND 570062 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.656 SERIES 570052 AND 570071 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.073 0.155 0.300 0.277 0.133 0.147 0.167 0.175 0.186 SDEV 0.195 0.212 0.270 0.265 0.257 0.264 0.262 0.238 0.199 SERR 0.062 0.055 0.045 0.044 0.035 0.023 0.018 0.018 0.017 EPS 0.346 0.608 0.802 0.822 0.717 0.774 0.808 0.813 0.813 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.371 0.019 -0.198 4.563 0.039 0.559 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.522 0.497 -0.140 126 182 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.67 1.00 1.08 1.75 15.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 185. 97. 90. 146. 243. 308. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.557 0.509 0.408 0.420 0.381 0.374 0.375 0.343 0.338 0.355 PACF 0.557 0.288 0.073 0.150 0.074 0.071 0.092 0.022 0.044 0.090 95% C.L. 0.114 0.145 0.167 0.179 0.192 0.201 0.210 0.218 0.225 0.232 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.372 0.395 0.291 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 570011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020166 0.36430609 2 570012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026038 0.33709729 3 570021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007560 0.35502291 4 570022 1 0.02390208 0.00680958 0.00000000 0.32322198 5 570031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009670 0.35439256 6 570032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015291 0.35537729 7 570041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015831 0.33283588 8 570042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006041 0.32111737 9 570051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057884 0.34699625 10 570052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050293 0.35227665 11 570061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012864 0.47545162 12 570062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007818 0.46278211 13 570071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039804 0.34692040 14 570072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024240 0.40244618 15 570081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015541 0.39856026 16 570082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013362 0.35298610 17 570091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00133910 0.30151561 18 570092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007126 0.36026701 19 570101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003136 0.37946367 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 570102 1 0.08986484 0.00262717 0.00000000 0.27546552 21 570111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037173 0.37660238 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.069 0.366 3.105 0.052 0.504 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.073 0.142 2.365 0.057 0.494 3 570021 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.073 0.713 5.013 0.055 0.466 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.000 0.089 0.112 2.823 0.055 0.668 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.078 0.576 4.780 0.059 0.489 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.084 0.115 2.789 0.069 0.404 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.066 0.209 3.750 0.058 0.331 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.068 0.410 3.585 0.053 0.436 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.000 0.077 0.450 3.790 0.063 0.419 10 570052 1793 1978 186 1.000 0.080 0.169 2.670 0.056 0.563 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.000 0.091 0.235 3.790 0.069 0.480 12 570062 1722 1943 222 1.000 0.129 0.618 3.053 0.067 0.758 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.000 0.087 0.361 3.625 0.064 0.544 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.000 0.095 0.397 3.273 0.068 0.591 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.000 0.091 0.917 3.856 0.054 0.717 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.069 0.160 3.335 0.045 0.616 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.000 0.084 0.261 4.887 0.079 0.214 18 570092 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.104 0.228 2.887 0.059 0.735 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.085 0.698 3.372 0.058 0.604 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.000 0.103 0.898 4.757 0.062 0.688 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.112 1.140 4.928 0.082 0.436 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.086 0.437 3.640 0.061 0.531 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.016 0.297 0.813 0.009 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.084 0.366 3.585 0.059 0.504 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.000 0.018 0.409 0.803 0.012 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.066 0.112 2.365 0.045 0.214 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.073 0.209 3.053 0.055 0.436 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.091 0.618 3.856 0.067 0.616 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.000 0.129 1.140 5.013 0.082 0.758 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 570011 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 570012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 570021 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 570022 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 570031 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 570032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 570041 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 570042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 570051 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 570052 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 570061 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 570062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 570071 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 570072 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 570081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 570082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 570091 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 570092 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 570101 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 570102 -67 206 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 570111 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.054 0.111 2.377 0.052 0.234 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.056 0.046 2.822 0.057 0.155 3 570021 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.069 1.038 6.397 0.055 0.399 4 570022 1687 1978 292 0.999 0.072 0.125 3.110 0.055 0.497 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.075 0.740 4.952 0.059 0.449 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.075 0.296 3.864 0.070 0.245 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.061 -0.033 3.508 0.059 0.222 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.062 0.176 3.289 0.053 0.325 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.000 0.069 0.609 4.253 0.063 0.245 10 570052 1793 1978 186 0.999 0.064 0.334 3.036 0.056 0.331 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.000 0.073 0.442 4.248 0.069 0.179 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.999 0.083 0.487 3.867 0.067 0.434 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.000 0.083 0.368 3.632 0.064 0.494 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.000 0.072 0.487 3.290 0.068 0.300 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.000 0.075 0.376 3.659 0.054 0.575 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.056 0.014 3.761 0.045 0.427 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.000 0.082 0.248 4.925 0.079 0.190 18 570092 1809 1978 170 0.999 0.079 0.207 2.854 0.059 0.549 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.078 0.565 3.543 0.058 0.527 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.000 0.096 0.734 4.851 0.062 0.647 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.094 1.210 6.971 0.082 0.228 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.073 0.409 3.962 0.061 0.364 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.012 0.326 1.141 0.009 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.073 0.368 3.659 0.059 0.331 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.000 0.016 0.389 0.964 0.012 0.260 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.999 0.054 -0.033 2.377 0.045 0.155 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.064 0.176 3.289 0.055 0.234 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.079 0.565 4.253 0.067 0.494 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.000 0.096 1.210 6.971 0.082 0.647 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.183 0.129 0.009 -0.161 2.978 -0.188 0.555 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.188 SERIES 570081 AND 570102 228 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.555 SERIES 570062 AND 570092 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.077 0.205 0.283 0.264 0.151 0.168 0.210 0.190 0.204 SDEV 0.204 0.173 0.209 0.266 0.240 0.208 0.181 0.206 0.169 SERR 0.064 0.045 0.035 0.044 0.032 0.018 0.013 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.357 0.687 0.789 0.812 0.745 0.801 0.848 0.828 0.830 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.996 0.039 0.337 3.800 0.037 0.268 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.128 0.087 -0.024 80 228 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 0.76 1.00 1.09 1.85 16.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.267 0.201 0.111 0.101 0.063 0.070 0.090 0.085 -0.005 0.010 PACF 0.267 0.139 0.030 0.045 0.011 0.033 0.056 0.037 -0.065 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.114 0.122 0.126 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.131 0.131 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.091 0.230 0.140 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.170 0.108 0.049 0.075 0.045 0.079 0.051 0.049 -0.033 0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.170 2 0.157 0.081 3 0.155 0.078 0.018 4 0.154 0.074 0.009 0.058 5 0.153 0.073 0.008 0.055 0.020 6 0.152 0.070 0.007 0.051 0.011 0.059 7 0.150 0.070 0.006 0.051 0.010 0.055 0.023 8 0.150 0.069 0.006 0.050 0.009 0.054 0.019 0.023 9 0.151 0.070 0.009 0.050 0.012 0.054 0.023 0.031 -0.058 10 0.151 0.070 0.009 0.050 0.012 0.054 0.023 0.031 -0.058 -0.001 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1352.24 1345.15 1345.12 1347.01 1347.96 1349.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1350.77 1352.62 1354.46 1355.42 1357.42 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.157 0.081 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.54 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.67 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.157 0.106 0.029 0.013 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 570011 2 0.077 0.214 0.091 2 570012 2 0.053 0.130 0.165 3 570021 2 0.187 0.333 0.168 4 570022 2 0.265 0.440 0.118 5 570031 2 0.229 0.381 0.160 6 570032 2 0.077 0.216 0.128 7 570041 2 0.051 0.217 0.022 8 570042 2 0.175 0.262 0.202 9 570051 2 0.144 0.182 0.289 10 570052 2 0.162 0.304 0.096 11 570061 2 0.067 0.146 0.189 12 570062 2 0.245 0.355 0.191 13 570071 2 0.265 0.448 0.104 14 570072 2 0.091 0.302 -0.005 15 570081 2 0.379 0.451 0.231 16 570082 2 0.228 0.330 0.232 17 570091 2 0.046 0.177 0.092 18 570092 2 0.367 0.396 0.280 19 570101 2 0.349 0.370 0.299 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 570102 2 0.457 0.484 0.253 21 570111 2 0.065 0.250 -0.083 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.189 0.304 0.153 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.124 0.107 0.099 MEDIAN 2 0.175 0.304 0.165 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.188 0.165 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.046 0.130 -0.083 LOWER HINGE 2 0.077 0.216 0.096 UPPER HINGE 2 0.265 0.381 0.231 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.457 0.484 0.299 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.052 0.135 2.407 0.059 -0.009 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.054 0.064 2.806 0.061 -0.008 3 570021 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.062 1.478 9.559 0.064 0.009 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.000 0.062 0.221 3.404 0.068 -0.011 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.066 0.450 4.412 0.072 -0.014 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.072 0.266 3.818 0.078 -0.002 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.059 -0.202 3.586 0.066 -0.001 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.057 0.108 3.553 0.062 -0.042 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.000 0.064 0.690 4.168 0.068 -0.005 10 570052 1793 1978 186 1.000 0.060 0.299 3.448 0.068 -0.025 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.000 0.070 0.535 4.552 0.075 -0.003 12 570062 1722 1943 222 1.000 0.074 0.431 3.305 0.081 -0.030 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.000 0.072 0.280 3.911 0.079 -0.005 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.000 0.068 0.439 2.953 0.076 -0.001 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.000 0.059 0.517 3.306 0.065 0.001 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.050 0.112 4.214 0.054 -0.002 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.000 0.081 0.206 4.665 0.086 0.002 18 570092 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.064 0.295 3.376 0.072 -0.035 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.063 0.276 3.708 0.070 -0.027 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.000 0.071 0.119 3.535 0.078 -0.001 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.091 1.172 6.927 0.092 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.065 0.376 4.077 0.071 -0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.010 0.374 1.551 0.009 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.064 0.280 3.586 0.070 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.000 0.012 0.316 0.839 0.013 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.050 -0.202 2.407 0.054 -0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.059 0.135 3.376 0.065 -0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.071 0.450 4.214 0.078 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.000 0.091 1.478 9.559 0.092 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.240 0.102 0.007 -0.025 2.981 -0.038 0.500 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.038 SERIES 570021 AND 570102 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.500 SERIES 570062 AND 570092 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.100 0.240 0.363 0.339 0.211 0.239 0.287 0.248 0.266 SDEV 0.217 0.146 0.110 0.157 0.165 0.150 0.147 0.150 0.134 SERR 0.069 0.038 0.018 0.026 0.022 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.425 0.729 0.844 0.861 0.815 0.862 0.894 0.871 0.873 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.998 0.036 0.417 3.928 0.044 -0.156 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.038 0.023 0.029 87 221 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.95 1.00 1.07 2.02 22.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.155 -0.084 -0.015 -0.031 -0.028 0.029 0.029 0.037 -0.046 -0.025 PACF -0.155 -0.110 -0.048 -0.053 -0.051 0.006 0.026 0.049 -0.027 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.114 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.038 -0.173 -0.110 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.014 -0.060 -0.048 -0.030 0.033 0.036 0.038 -0.042 -0.036 PACF -0.005 -0.014 -0.060 -0.049 -0.032 0.027 0.030 0.033 -0.040 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 -0.005 -0.014 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.998 0.036 0.369 4.184 0.038 0.155 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.154 0.077 -0.043 -0.048 -0.032 0.031 0.037 0.034 -0.039 -0.044 PACF 0.154 0.055 -0.064 -0.037 -0.012 0.042 0.026 0.016 -0.051 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.114 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.027 0.154 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES