RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit026x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit026x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 570 1 Coulin DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 570 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 250 5732-521 1671 1978 - 570 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 570042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 570062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 570071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 570072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 570081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 1 GAPS / 1876 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 570082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1734 1734 / 1793 1799 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 570092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 570101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1837 1840 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 0.931 0.067 -0.354 2.291 0.061 0.457 2 570012 1840 1978 139 0.870 0.094 -0.814 3.287 0.059 0.759 3 570021 1794 1978 185 0.844 0.075 -0.238 2.378 0.061 0.625 4 570022 1687 1978 292 0.804 0.086 -0.683 3.664 0.087 0.479 5 570031 1702 1978 277 0.832 0.074 -0.366 2.981 0.077 0.416 6 570032 1830 1978 149 0.894 0.089 -0.655 2.902 0.078 0.512 7 570041 1851 1978 128 0.796 0.059 -0.313 3.413 0.075 0.214 8 570042 1807 1978 172 0.810 0.071 -0.130 3.209 0.091 0.238 9 570051 1823 1912 90 0.932 0.080 -0.983 4.627 0.063 0.532 10 570052 1793 1978 186 0.901 0.063 -0.396 2.969 0.071 0.241 11 570061 1742 1978 237 0.974 0.070 -1.442 5.965 0.055 0.503 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.921 0.119 -0.548 2.222 0.063 0.818 13 570071 1690 1960 271 0.759 0.094 -0.128 2.398 0.098 0.489 14 570072 1806 1920 115 0.654 0.075 0.132 2.088 0.100 0.347 15 570081 1739 1966 228 0.801 0.081 -0.008 3.246 0.073 0.591 16 570082 1705 1978 274 0.704 0.084 -0.315 2.483 0.085 0.582 17 570091 1851 1940 90 0.880 0.105 -0.768 3.439 0.095 0.456 18 570092 1809 1978 170 0.726 0.095 0.218 2.811 0.104 0.515 19 570101 1734 1976 243 0.858 0.118 -0.830 3.590 0.099 0.621 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 0.732 0.130 0.304 2.247 0.104 0.740 21 570111 1833 1978 146 0.936 0.073 -0.488 2.957 0.075 0.283 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1671 TO 1978 308 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.836 0.086 -0.419 3.103 0.080 0.496 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.087 0.019 0.424 0.898 0.016 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.844 0.081 -0.366 2.969 0.077 0.503 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.106 0.022 0.553 1.015 0.032 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.654 0.059 -1.442 2.088 0.055 0.214 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.796 0.073 -0.683 2.398 0.063 0.416 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 239 0.901 0.094 -0.130 3.413 0.095 0.591 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 0.974 0.130 0.304 5.965 0.104 0.818 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.231 0.195 0.013 -0.512 3.078 -0.358 0.626 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.358 SERIES 570021 AND 570082 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.626 SERIES 570012 AND 570032 139 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.224 0.173 0.253 0.235 0.279 0.274 0.280 0.289 0.307 SDEV 0.174 0.259 0.179 0.259 0.189 0.195 0.200 0.192 0.174 SERR 0.055 0.067 0.030 0.043 0.025 0.017 0.014 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.658 0.641 0.762 0.787 0.865 0.883 0.891 0.893 0.894 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 0.829 0.049 -0.248 3.030 0.060 0.233 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.050 0.045 0.072 31 277 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.43 1.00 1.05 1.48 35.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 185. 97. 90. 146. 243. 308. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.232 0.192 0.141 0.120 0.035 0.104 0.045 0.018 0.016 -0.037 PACF 0.232 0.146 0.075 0.056 -0.032 0.075 -0.003 -0.021 -0.002 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.114 0.120 0.124 0.126 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.079 0.198 0.145 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 570011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042782 0.89794755 2 570012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00114313 0.95023459 3 570021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077351 0.91545004 4 570022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014519 0.78242761 5 570031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012539 0.84916258 6 570032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039648 0.92389715 7 570041 1 0.00061025 0.00014064 0.00000000 0.79494214 8 570042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030465 0.83591706 9 570051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00154266 1.00185764 10 570052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015361 0.88692766 11 570061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041330 1.02276909 12 570062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00129013 1.06597352 13 570071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064398 0.84473073 14 570072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086819 0.70325029 15 570081 1 0.09200953 0.02623609 0.00000000 0.78363353 16 570082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021135 0.67511457 17 570091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023838 0.89062423 18 570092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075072 0.78538132 19 570101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029099 0.89346325 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 570102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094302 0.87777382 21 570111 1 0.12150399 0.04702339 0.00000000 0.91834968 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.069 -0.272 2.531 0.060 0.409 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.095 -0.387 2.798 0.059 0.674 3 570021 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.073 -0.289 3.027 0.060 0.449 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.000 0.106 -0.606 3.580 0.087 0.467 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.089 -0.396 2.959 0.077 0.400 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.098 -0.381 2.602 0.078 0.496 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.074 -0.313 3.413 0.075 0.212 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.085 -0.246 3.069 0.090 0.191 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.000 0.074 -1.019 4.505 0.062 0.343 10 570052 1793 1978 186 1.000 0.070 -0.408 2.852 0.071 0.224 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.000 0.067 -1.402 6.015 0.055 0.409 12 570062 1722 1943 222 1.000 0.095 0.053 2.813 0.063 0.661 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.000 0.106 -0.396 3.026 0.098 0.321 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.000 0.106 0.044 2.572 0.098 0.285 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.000 0.095 0.026 3.029 0.075 0.508 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.117 -0.179 2.675 0.085 0.563 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.000 0.120 -0.708 3.325 0.094 0.451 18 570092 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.124 0.004 2.577 0.104 0.465 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.134 -0.849 3.906 0.098 0.599 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.000 0.135 0.093 2.707 0.104 0.533 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.073 -0.495 3.057 0.075 0.162 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.095 -0.387 3.192 0.079 0.420 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.022 0.376 0.808 0.016 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.095 -0.381 3.026 0.077 0.449 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.000 0.032 0.316 0.617 0.032 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.067 -1.402 2.531 0.055 0.162 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.074 -0.495 2.707 0.063 0.321 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.106 -0.179 3.325 0.094 0.508 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.000 0.135 0.093 6.015 0.104 0.674 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 570011 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 570012 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 570021 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 570022 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 570031 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 570032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 570041 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 570042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 570051 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 570052 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 570061 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 570062 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 570071 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 570072 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 570081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 570082 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 570091 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 570092 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 570101 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 570102 -67 206 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 570111 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.066 -0.349 2.521 0.060 0.348 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.079 -0.155 3.372 0.059 0.522 3 570021 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.065 -0.160 2.444 0.060 0.324 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.000 0.104 -0.597 3.762 0.087 0.442 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.085 -0.372 3.005 0.077 0.351 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.081 -0.485 2.710 0.078 0.264 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.073 -0.322 3.381 0.075 0.189 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.078 -0.306 3.262 0.090 0.052 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.000 0.063 -1.025 5.157 0.063 0.091 10 570052 1793 1978 186 1.000 0.069 -0.539 2.943 0.071 0.197 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.000 0.063 -1.334 5.747 0.055 0.328 12 570062 1722 1943 222 0.999 0.073 -0.589 3.314 0.063 0.423 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.000 0.103 -0.382 3.107 0.098 0.275 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.000 0.095 -0.169 2.616 0.098 0.109 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.000 0.087 0.054 3.135 0.075 0.402 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.098 0.038 3.002 0.086 0.354 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.000 0.114 -0.725 3.682 0.094 0.406 18 570092 1809 1978 170 0.999 0.115 -0.166 2.603 0.103 0.382 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.116 -0.807 4.236 0.098 0.444 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 0.999 0.123 0.112 3.184 0.104 0.441 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.071 -0.477 3.144 0.075 0.115 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.087 -0.417 3.349 0.079 0.308 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.020 0.356 0.827 0.016 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.081 -0.372 3.144 0.077 0.348 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.000 0.032 0.422 0.438 0.032 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.999 0.063 -1.334 2.444 0.055 0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.071 -0.589 2.943 0.063 0.197 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.103 -0.166 3.381 0.094 0.406 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.000 0.123 0.112 5.747 0.104 0.522 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.286 0.120 0.008 -0.492 3.857 -0.133 0.668 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.133 SERIES 570071 AND 570091 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.668 SERIES 570051 AND 570111 80 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.221 0.147 0.261 0.258 0.272 0.307 0.323 0.301 0.323 SDEV 0.165 0.243 0.191 0.213 0.191 0.178 0.160 0.179 0.155 SERR 0.052 0.063 0.032 0.036 0.026 0.015 0.011 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.654 0.594 0.770 0.807 0.861 0.898 0.909 0.898 0.901 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 1.000 0.056 -0.167 2.514 0.059 0.195 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.097 -0.058 0.131 81 227 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.82 1.00 1.09 1.91 58.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.194 0.161 0.066 0.075 -0.011 0.075 -0.005 -0.064 -0.084 -0.155 PACF 0.194 0.128 0.015 0.043 -0.044 0.071 -0.026 -0.084 -0.060 -0.128 95% C.L. 0.114 0.118 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.054 0.169 0.128 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.108 0.156 -0.030 0.073 -0.041 0.092 -0.006 -0.055 -0.131 -0.162 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.108 2 0.092 0.146 3 0.101 0.152 -0.062 4 0.105 0.142 -0.068 0.061 5 0.107 0.140 -0.062 0.065 -0.042 6 0.111 0.134 -0.057 0.054 -0.051 0.083 7 0.111 0.134 -0.057 0.053 -0.050 0.083 -0.007 8 0.111 0.141 -0.061 0.058 -0.055 0.095 0.003 -0.091 9 0.101 0.142 -0.051 0.053 -0.049 0.089 0.018 -0.079 -0.105 10 0.087 0.131 -0.049 0.065 -0.056 0.096 0.011 -0.059 -0.091 -0.140 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1566.36 1564.77 1560.13 1560.94 1561.79 1563.25 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1563.14 1565.13 1564.58 1563.15 1559.09 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.092 0.146 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.27 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.38 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.092 0.154 0.028 0.025 0.006 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 570011 2 0.157 0.280 0.196 2 570012 2 0.294 0.435 0.166 3 570021 2 0.137 0.267 0.180 4 570022 2 0.221 0.371 0.159 5 570031 2 0.168 0.283 0.209 6 570032 2 0.082 0.247 0.073 7 570041 2 0.058 0.192 -0.018 8 570042 2 0.014 0.047 0.105 9 570051 2 0.056 0.072 0.217 10 570052 2 0.111 0.144 0.269 11 570061 2 0.138 0.273 0.170 12 570062 2 0.246 0.331 0.217 13 570071 2 0.146 0.200 0.275 14 570072 2 0.056 0.087 0.207 15 570081 2 0.200 0.323 0.200 16 570082 2 0.160 0.285 0.197 17 570091 2 0.209 0.343 0.187 18 570092 2 0.178 0.317 0.175 19 570101 2 0.224 0.397 0.111 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 570102 2 0.242 0.346 0.217 21 570111 2 0.101 0.084 0.273 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.152 0.254 0.180 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.074 0.112 0.069 MEDIAN 2 0.157 0.280 0.196 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.108 0.139 0.051 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.014 0.047 -0.018 LOWER HINGE 2 0.101 0.192 0.166 UPPER HINGE 2 0.209 0.331 0.217 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.294 0.435 0.275 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 570011 1825 1978 154 1.000 0.061 -0.605 3.184 0.069 -0.010 2 570012 1840 1978 139 1.000 0.066 -0.214 3.299 0.071 0.007 3 570021 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.061 0.009 2.708 0.068 -0.012 4 570022 1687 1978 292 1.000 0.092 -0.725 4.192 0.102 -0.013 5 570031 1702 1978 277 1.000 0.078 -0.443 3.129 0.087 -0.012 6 570032 1830 1978 149 1.000 0.078 -0.478 2.660 0.087 0.005 7 570041 1851 1978 128 1.000 0.071 -0.218 3.454 0.082 -0.003 8 570042 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.078 -0.305 3.302 0.092 0.002 9 570051 1823 1912 90 1.000 0.061 -0.874 4.855 0.064 0.005 10 570052 1793 1978 186 1.000 0.065 -0.500 2.689 0.074 -0.013 11 570061 1742 1978 237 1.000 0.059 -1.379 5.963 0.062 0.011 12 570062 1722 1943 222 1.000 0.064 -0.593 3.326 0.075 -0.041 13 570071 1690 1960 271 1.000 0.095 -0.384 3.118 0.108 -0.001 14 570072 1806 1920 115 1.000 0.092 -0.224 2.677 0.100 -0.007 15 570081 1739 1966 228 1.000 0.078 -0.142 2.956 0.087 -0.008 16 570082 1705 1978 274 1.000 0.089 -0.159 3.459 0.098 -0.003 17 570091 1851 1940 90 1.000 0.102 -0.867 4.795 0.108 0.029 18 570092 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.104 -0.112 2.596 0.119 0.015 19 570101 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.103 -0.603 3.974 0.118 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 570102 1671 1978 308 1.000 0.108 -0.112 3.313 0.124 -0.024 21 570111 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.067 -0.489 2.983 0.075 0.034 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 1.000 0.080 -0.448 3.459 0.089 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.017 0.329 0.861 0.019 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 1.000 0.078 -0.443 3.299 0.087 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 97 0.000 0.027 0.390 0.503 0.028 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.059 -1.379 2.596 0.062 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.065 -0.603 2.956 0.074 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 243 1.000 0.092 -0.214 3.459 0.102 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 308 1.000 0.108 0.009 5.963 0.124 0.034 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.333 0.100 0.007 -0.558 4.762 -0.055 0.668 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.055 SERIES 570012 AND 570072 81 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.668 SERIES 570051 AND 570111 80 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 15. 36. 36. 55. 136. 210. 171. 136. RBAR 0.199 0.190 0.405 0.405 0.311 0.315 0.365 0.362 0.332 SDEV 0.160 0.181 0.131 0.126 0.147 0.152 0.132 0.133 0.135 SERR 0.051 0.047 0.022 0.021 0.020 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.623 0.666 0.866 0.892 0.882 0.901 0.924 0.921 0.904 NSS 6.7 8.5 9.5 12.1 16.5 19.9 21.0 20.5 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 1.002 0.054 -0.255 2.809 0.066 -0.109 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.103 -0.054 0.116 85 223 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.86 1.00 1.08 1.94 988.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.109 -0.073 -0.005 0.024 -0.056 0.117 -0.016 -0.038 0.018 -0.106 PACF -0.109 -0.086 -0.024 0.014 -0.055 0.109 0.002 -0.024 0.015 -0.119 95% C.L. 0.114 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.020 -0.118 -0.086 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.001 -0.026 0.021 -0.042 0.111 -0.010 -0.038 -0.007 -0.119 PACF -0.002 -0.001 -0.026 0.021 -0.042 0.110 -0.009 -0.041 0.000 -0.128 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.002 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1978 308 1.002 0.055 -0.222 2.564 0.059 0.101 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.101 0.156 0.001 0.054 -0.030 0.102 -0.014 -0.044 -0.033 -0.132 PACF 0.101 0.147 -0.028 0.034 -0.034 0.098 -0.022 -0.075 -0.012 -0.126 95% C.L. 0.114 0.115 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.032 0.086 0.147 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES