RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit048x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit048x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 390 1 Plockton DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 390 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 100 5720-540 1879 1976 - 390 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 390011 1887 1976 90 0.889 0.097 -1.455 4.518 0.058 0.737 2 390012 1892 1976 85 0.888 0.080 -1.069 4.157 0.058 0.603 3 390021 1900 1976 77 0.897 0.068 -0.047 3.146 0.073 0.259 4 390022 1904 1976 73 0.900 0.082 -0.120 2.421 0.091 0.246 5 390031 1898 1976 79 0.946 0.103 -1.149 3.148 0.055 0.787 6 390032 1894 1976 83 0.886 0.117 -0.287 1.981 0.061 0.836 7 390041 1911 1976 66 0.853 0.113 -0.764 2.646 0.082 0.672 8 390042 1909 1976 68 0.864 0.106 -0.907 3.171 0.062 0.754 9 390051 1890 1976 87 0.791 0.087 -0.117 2.563 0.065 0.722 10 390052 1885 1976 92 0.812 0.096 -0.601 2.941 0.067 0.722 11 390061 1904 1976 73 0.915 0.077 -0.559 2.309 0.048 0.768 12 390062 1906 1976 71 0.831 0.086 -0.066 2.452 0.076 0.569 13 390071 1920 1976 57 0.948 0.063 -1.196 4.746 0.051 0.509 14 390072 1895 1976 82 0.977 0.052 -0.588 3.114 0.041 0.483 15 391081 1886 1976 91 0.884 0.058 -0.700 3.712 0.056 0.451 16 391082 1890 1976 87 0.847 0.082 -0.621 2.784 0.060 0.726 17 391091 1899 1976 78 0.922 0.057 -0.282 2.407 0.053 0.409 18 391092 1899 1976 78 0.844 0.090 0.141 2.011 0.067 0.665 19 391101 1893 1976 84 0.782 0.068 -0.119 2.254 0.086 0.253 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 391102 1885 1976 92 0.879 0.094 -1.093 5.545 0.058 0.680 21 391111 1879 1976 98 0.729 0.088 0.368 2.743 0.101 0.382 22 391112 1892 1976 85 0.758 0.110 0.099 2.117 0.090 0.641 23 391121 1904 1976 73 0.790 0.055 -0.154 3.864 0.060 0.320 24 391122 1908 1976 69 0.858 0.056 -0.854 3.953 0.054 0.399 25 391131 1881 1976 96 0.958 0.084 -1.685 5.990 0.058 0.647 26 391132 1884 1976 93 0.941 0.086 -1.079 4.564 0.059 0.632 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1879 TO 1976 98 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 0.869 0.083 -0.573 3.279 0.065 0.572 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.064 0.019 0.533 1.096 0.015 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 82 0.882 0.085 -0.595 3.027 0.060 0.637 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.084 0.028 0.950 1.532 0.017 0.313 MINIMUM VALUE 57 0.729 0.052 -1.685 1.981 0.041 0.246 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 0.831 0.068 -1.069 2.421 0.056 0.409 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 0.915 0.096 -0.119 3.953 0.073 0.722 MAXIMUM VALUE 98 0.977 0.117 0.368 5.990 0.101 0.836 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.406 0.212 0.012 -0.169 2.265 -0.117 0.845 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.117 SERIES 390031 AND 390072 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.845 SERIES 390041 AND 390042 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.62 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. CORR 210. RBAR 0.385 SDEV 0.233 SERR 0.016 EPS 0.941 NSS 25.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1879 1976 98 0.848 0.075 -0.601 3.054 0.044 0.779 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.074 -0.028 0.116 12 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.07 0.05 1.02 1.06 1.11 1.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 82. 17. 57. 73. 90. 98. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.771 0.740 0.697 0.647 0.653 0.610 0.593 0.587 0.491 0.499 PACF 0.771 0.359 0.153 0.039 0.152 0.014 0.033 0.069 -0.191 0.047 95% C.L. 0.202 0.299 0.366 0.417 0.456 0.493 0.522 0.549 0.574 0.591 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.750 0.285 0.405 0.235 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 390011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00240005 0.78024220 2 390012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00192496 0.80510926 3 390021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099664 0.85840398 4 390022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037332 0.91340184 5 390031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00285248 0.83159691 6 390032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00392112 0.72097564 7 390041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00406784 0.71630305 8 390042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00392736 0.72877085 9 390051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00263614 0.67469931 10 390052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00290546 0.67652655 11 390061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00283074 0.81019408 12 390062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00238431 0.74515092 13 390071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00237620 0.87916040 14 390072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042468 0.95920503 15 391081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00101497 0.83770698 16 391082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00249708 0.73759955 17 391091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00132070 0.86962706 18 391092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00282174 0.73264402 19 391101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022163 0.77308089 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 391102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197818 0.78692788 21 391111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00132752 0.66347146 22 391112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00359273 0.60374790 23 391121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00166852 0.72799087 24 391122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003507 0.85645354 25 391131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00140267 0.89019954 26 391132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00107383 0.89017534 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 390011 1887 1976 90 1.000 0.087 -0.843 3.531 0.057 0.614 2 390012 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.074 -0.967 4.608 0.057 0.436 3 390021 1900 1976 77 1.000 0.072 -0.087 3.000 0.072 0.164 4 390022 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.091 -0.105 2.560 0.090 0.233 5 390031 1898 1976 79 1.000 0.087 -0.391 2.149 0.054 0.650 6 390032 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.080 0.319 2.365 0.060 0.539 7 390041 1911 1976 66 1.000 0.097 -0.214 2.930 0.081 0.458 8 390042 1909 1976 68 1.000 0.085 -0.357 2.733 0.061 0.579 9 390051 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.071 0.319 2.969 0.064 0.335 10 390052 1885 1976 92 1.000 0.071 -0.246 3.051 0.066 0.350 11 390061 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.055 0.101 2.507 0.047 0.407 12 390062 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.088 0.993 4.582 0.075 0.373 13 390071 1920 1976 57 1.000 0.053 -0.741 4.610 0.050 0.267 14 390072 1895 1976 82 1.000 0.052 -0.479 3.048 0.041 0.470 15 391081 1886 1976 91 1.000 0.058 -1.223 5.542 0.055 0.309 16 391082 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.066 0.341 4.120 0.059 0.366 17 391091 1899 1976 78 1.000 0.053 -0.340 3.177 0.053 0.215 18 391092 1899 1976 78 1.000 0.074 -0.243 3.641 0.066 0.361 19 391101 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.087 -0.072 2.273 0.085 0.245 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 391102 1885 1976 92 1.000 0.092 -0.798 5.156 0.057 0.611 21 391111 1879 1976 98 1.000 0.108 0.142 3.191 0.100 0.256 22 391112 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.089 0.377 3.559 0.089 0.128 23 391121 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.054 0.242 5.725 0.060 -0.098 24 391122 1908 1976 69 1.000 0.065 -0.836 3.934 0.054 0.393 25 391131 1881 1976 96 1.000 0.079 -1.168 4.548 0.058 0.591 26 391132 1884 1976 93 1.000 0.086 -1.224 4.514 0.059 0.601 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.076 -0.288 3.616 0.064 0.379 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.016 0.568 1.028 0.015 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.077 -0.244 3.361 0.059 0.370 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.022 0.940 1.617 0.017 0.283 MINIMUM VALUE 57 1.000 0.052 -1.224 2.149 0.041 -0.098 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.065 -0.798 2.930 0.055 0.256 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.087 0.142 4.548 0.072 0.539 MAXIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.108 0.993 5.725 0.100 0.650 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 390011 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 390012 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 390021 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 390022 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 390031 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 390032 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 390041 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 390042 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 390051 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 390052 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 390061 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 390062 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 390071 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 390072 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 391081 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 391082 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 391091 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 391092 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 391101 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 391102 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 391111 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 391112 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 391121 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 391122 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 391131 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 391132 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 390011 1887 1976 90 0.999 0.055 -0.583 3.796 0.056 0.127 2 390012 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.062 -1.180 5.213 0.057 0.239 3 390021 1900 1976 77 1.000 0.069 -0.108 2.893 0.072 0.104 4 390022 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.080 0.002 3.123 0.090 -0.007 5 390031 1898 1976 79 1.000 0.056 -0.588 4.066 0.054 0.123 6 390032 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.074 0.131 2.464 0.060 0.452 7 390041 1911 1976 66 1.000 0.077 -0.635 3.305 0.081 0.164 8 390042 1909 1976 68 1.000 0.064 -0.319 2.444 0.061 0.318 9 390051 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.065 0.259 2.576 0.064 0.224 10 390052 1885 1976 92 1.000 0.057 -0.206 2.976 0.066 0.032 11 390061 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.044 0.243 2.448 0.047 0.105 12 390062 1906 1976 71 0.999 0.073 0.497 2.958 0.075 0.195 13 390071 1920 1976 57 1.000 0.046 -0.847 5.335 0.050 0.046 14 390072 1895 1976 82 1.000 0.044 -0.595 3.155 0.041 0.251 15 391081 1886 1976 91 1.000 0.055 -1.280 6.036 0.055 0.234 16 391082 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.062 0.367 4.272 0.059 0.306 17 391091 1899 1976 78 1.000 0.052 -0.334 3.123 0.053 0.174 18 391092 1899 1976 78 1.000 0.070 -0.260 3.668 0.066 0.301 19 391101 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.079 0.099 2.740 0.085 0.101 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 391102 1885 1976 92 0.999 0.075 -1.196 6.288 0.056 0.462 21 391111 1879 1976 98 1.000 0.103 0.148 3.153 0.100 0.190 22 391112 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.084 0.248 3.061 0.089 0.012 23 391121 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.052 -0.146 6.002 0.059 -0.157 24 391122 1908 1976 69 1.000 0.058 -0.989 4.479 0.054 0.218 25 391131 1881 1976 96 0.999 0.061 -0.393 3.532 0.057 0.324 26 391132 1884 1976 93 0.999 0.072 -0.812 5.024 0.058 0.441 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.065 -0.326 3.774 0.064 0.192 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.014 0.515 1.192 0.015 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.063 -0.289 3.230 0.059 0.192 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.018 0.766 1.521 0.017 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 57 0.999 0.044 -1.280 2.444 0.041 -0.157 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.055 -0.635 2.958 0.055 0.104 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.074 0.131 4.479 0.072 0.301 MAXIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.103 0.497 6.288 0.100 0.462 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.286 0.138 0.008 -0.364 3.363 -0.169 0.740 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 390032 AND 391092 78 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.740 SERIES 390021 AND 390022 73 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.62 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. CORR 210. RBAR 0.325 SDEV 0.161 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.924 NSS 25.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1879 1976 98 0.997 0.041 -0.264 3.395 0.044 0.115 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.060 0.036 0.020 32 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.42 1.02 1.07 1.48 8.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.114 0.202 -0.009 -0.060 0.079 0.016 0.002 0.105 -0.250 -0.064 PACF 0.114 0.192 -0.053 -0.098 0.113 0.031 -0.052 0.108 -0.267 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.202 0.205 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.215 0.215 0.215 0.217 0.228 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.055 0.093 0.198 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.056 0.071 -0.012 -0.228 0.004 -0.117 -0.045 0.192 -0.170 -0.082 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.056 2 0.052 0.068 3 0.054 0.069 -0.019 4 0.049 0.085 -0.007 -0.233 5 0.056 0.085 -0.010 -0.234 0.032 6 0.059 0.065 -0.011 -0.227 0.037 -0.089 7 0.055 0.066 -0.021 -0.227 0.040 -0.086 -0.044 8 0.063 0.081 -0.027 -0.188 0.043 -0.097 -0.054 0.172 9 0.097 0.070 -0.047 -0.180 0.006 -0.103 -0.038 0.184 -0.198 10 0.068 0.098 -0.052 -0.195 0.007 -0.129 -0.045 0.194 -0.183 -0.148 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 411.49 413.18 414.73 416.69 413.23 415.13 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 416.36 418.17 417.24 415.33 415.16 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 390011 0 0.017 2 390012 0 0.064 3 390021 0 0.011 4 390022 0 0.000 5 390031 0 0.016 6 390032 0 0.207 7 390041 0 0.028 8 390042 0 0.104 9 390051 0 0.051 10 390052 0 0.001 11 390061 0 0.012 12 390062 0 0.041 13 390071 0 0.002 14 390072 0 0.065 15 391081 0 0.055 16 391082 0 0.098 17 391091 0 0.031 18 391092 0 0.091 19 391101 0 0.010 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 391102 0 0.268 21 391111 0 0.037 22 391112 0 0.000 23 391121 0 0.025 24 391122 0 0.048 25 391131 0 0.106 26 391132 0 0.199 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.061 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.069 MEDIAN 0 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.012 UPPER HINGE 0 0.091 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.268 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 390011 1887 1976 90 1.000 0.055 -0.583 3.796 0.056 0.127 2 390012 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.062 -1.180 5.213 0.057 0.239 3 390021 1900 1976 77 1.000 0.069 -0.108 2.893 0.072 0.104 4 390022 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.080 0.002 3.123 0.090 -0.007 5 390031 1898 1976 79 1.000 0.056 -0.588 4.066 0.054 0.123 6 390032 1894 1976 83 1.000 0.074 0.131 2.464 0.060 0.452 7 390041 1911 1976 66 1.000 0.077 -0.635 3.305 0.081 0.164 8 390042 1909 1976 68 1.000 0.064 -0.319 2.444 0.061 0.318 9 390051 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.065 0.259 2.576 0.064 0.224 10 390052 1885 1976 92 1.000 0.057 -0.206 2.976 0.066 0.032 11 390061 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.044 0.243 2.448 0.047 0.105 12 390062 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.073 0.497 2.958 0.075 0.195 13 390071 1920 1976 57 1.000 0.046 -0.847 5.335 0.050 0.046 14 390072 1895 1976 82 1.000 0.044 -0.595 3.155 0.041 0.251 15 391081 1886 1976 91 1.000 0.055 -1.280 6.036 0.055 0.234 16 391082 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.062 0.367 4.272 0.059 0.306 17 391091 1899 1976 78 1.000 0.052 -0.334 3.123 0.053 0.174 18 391092 1899 1976 78 1.000 0.070 -0.260 3.668 0.066 0.301 19 391101 1893 1976 84 1.000 0.079 0.099 2.740 0.085 0.101 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 391102 1885 1976 92 1.000 0.075 -1.196 6.288 0.056 0.462 21 391111 1879 1976 98 1.000 0.103 0.148 3.153 0.100 0.190 22 391112 1892 1976 85 1.000 0.084 0.248 3.061 0.089 0.012 23 391121 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.052 -0.146 6.002 0.059 -0.157 24 391122 1908 1976 69 1.000 0.058 -0.989 4.479 0.054 0.218 25 391131 1881 1976 96 1.000 0.061 -0.393 3.532 0.057 0.324 26 391132 1884 1976 93 1.000 0.072 -0.812 5.023 0.058 0.441 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.065 -0.326 3.774 0.064 0.192 STANDARD DEVIATION 10 0.000 0.014 0.515 1.192 0.015 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 82 1.000 0.063 -0.289 3.230 0.059 0.192 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.018 0.766 1.521 0.017 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 57 1.000 0.044 -1.280 2.444 0.041 -0.157 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.055 -0.635 2.958 0.055 0.104 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.074 0.131 4.479 0.072 0.301 MAXIMUM VALUE 98 1.000 0.103 0.497 6.288 0.100 0.462 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.286 0.138 0.008 -0.364 3.363 -0.169 0.740 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 390032 AND 391092 78 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.740 SERIES 390021 AND 390022 73 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.62 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1930. CORR 210. RBAR 0.325 SDEV 0.161 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.924 NSS 25.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1879 1976 98 0.997 0.041 -0.262 3.395 0.044 0.114 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.062 0.037 0.019 32 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.40 1.02 1.07 1.47 8.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.113 0.202 -0.010 -0.060 0.079 0.015 0.001 0.105 -0.250 -0.064 PACF 0.113 0.192 -0.053 -0.098 0.113 0.031 -0.053 0.108 -0.267 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.202 0.205 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.214 0.215 0.215 0.217 0.228 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.055 0.092 0.198 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1879 1976 98 0.997 0.041 -0.262 3.395 0.044 0.114 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.113 0.202 -0.010 -0.060 0.079 0.015 0.001 0.105 -0.250 -0.064 PACF 0.113 0.192 -0.053 -0.098 0.113 0.031 -0.053 0.108 -0.267 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.202 0.205 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.214 0.215 0.215 0.217 0.228 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.055 0.092 0.198 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES