RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit049n.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit049n.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 392 1 Mallaig, Loch Morar DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 392 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 20 5658-545 1903 1976 - 392 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 26 394132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 392011 1921 1976 56 0.365 0.028 0.019 4.160 0.065 0.429 2 392012 1917 1968 52 0.339 0.029 1.429 5.864 0.054 0.684 3 392021 1904 1976 73 0.305 0.025 0.720 3.388 0.066 0.547 4 392022 1906 1976 71 0.308 0.030 2.309 9.941 0.071 0.456 5 392031 1930 1976 47 0.316 0.034 0.726 5.165 0.076 0.441 6 392032 1921 1976 56 0.323 0.024 0.634 4.540 0.069 0.205 7 392041 1950 1976 27 0.330 0.026 0.246 2.594 0.065 0.416 8 392042 1937 1976 40 0.325 0.025 0.196 4.073 0.064 0.409 9 392051 1933 1976 44 0.362 0.029 0.430 3.070 0.070 0.383 10 392052 1928 1976 49 0.356 0.027 0.785 3.127 0.067 0.377 11 392061 1938 1976 39 0.338 0.021 0.128 3.390 0.068 0.080 12 392062 1920 1976 57 0.324 0.021 0.682 2.797 0.048 0.520 13 393071 1922 1976 55 0.378 0.025 -0.156 3.295 0.070 -0.006 14 393072 1921 1976 56 0.343 0.022 0.730 5.183 0.059 0.311 15 393081 1914 1976 63 0.345 0.033 0.245 6.036 0.077 0.348 16 393082 1904 1976 73 0.326 0.023 -0.168 2.683 0.072 0.224 17 393091 1916 1976 61 0.328 0.025 -0.067 3.990 0.076 0.076 18 393092 1921 1976 56 0.341 0.027 -0.656 3.592 0.080 0.170 19 393101 1903 1976 74 0.378 0.028 -0.582 3.781 0.051 0.595 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 393102 1906 1976 71 0.389 0.025 -0.014 2.577 0.039 0.702 21 394111 1931 1976 46 0.316 0.023 -0.758 3.408 0.037 0.692 22 394112 1934 1976 43 0.317 0.030 1.108 4.283 0.059 0.655 23 394121 1913 1976 64 0.313 0.021 0.707 3.102 0.049 0.577 24 394122 1916 1976 61 0.317 0.014 -0.262 3.223 0.044 0.217 25 394131 1934 1976 43 0.317 0.021 0.140 2.355 0.065 0.232 26 394132 1932 1976 45 0.332 0.023 -0.108 3.707 0.054 0.401 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1903 TO 1976 74 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 0.336 0.025 0.325 3.974 0.062 0.390 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.023 0.004 0.671 1.560 0.012 0.200 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 0.329 0.025 0.220 3.500 0.065 0.405 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.029 0.005 0.828 1.181 0.017 0.323 MINIMUM VALUE 27 0.305 0.014 -0.758 2.355 0.037 -0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 44 0.317 0.023 -0.108 3.102 0.054 0.224 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 63 0.345 0.028 0.720 4.283 0.070 0.547 MAXIMUM VALUE 74 0.389 0.034 2.309 9.941 0.080 0.702 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.181 0.254 0.014 -0.225 2.720 -0.554 0.739 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.554 SERIES 392041 AND 394111 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.739 SERIES 392032 AND 392041 27 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.69 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1903 1976 74 0.337 0.020 1.508 7.929 0.055 0.041 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.063 0.042 0.021 12 62 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.63 1.00 1.06 1.69 6.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 56. 18. 27. 45. 63. 74. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.041 0.015 0.266 0.051 -0.214 0.168 -0.095 -0.160 0.006 -0.006 PACF 0.041 0.014 0.265 0.033 -0.240 0.127 -0.133 -0.051 -0.027 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.232 0.233 0.233 0.249 0.249 0.259 0.265 0.267 0.272 0.272 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 392011 1 0.04919585 0.18168384 0.00000000 0.36076945 2 392012 1 0.09402592 0.12387290 0.00000000 0.32573333 3 392021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051771 0.28536531 4 392022 1 0.17836541 0.29751194 0.00000000 0.30049640 5 392031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00129278 0.34655875 6 392032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027751 0.33112338 7 392041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00231990 0.29715100 8 392042 1 0.06868316 0.05932510 0.00000000 0.30002517 9 392051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00142918 0.32966176 10 392052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039388 0.34566328 11 392061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089474 0.35635626 12 392062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089253 0.29815164 13 393071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024098 0.37125254 14 393072 1 0.05292843 0.25267905 0.00000000 0.33974791 15 393081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088038 0.37356889 16 393082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032272 0.31436074 17 393091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011687 0.33198360 18 393092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005058 0.33927274 19 393101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078638 0.40732691 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 393102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00082763 0.41894969 21 394111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122849 0.34452173 22 394112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00146481 0.34943521 23 394121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015430 0.31845239 24 394122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026600 0.30847540 25 394131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063274 0.33066446 26 394132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007541 0.33184469 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 392011 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.072 -0.424 3.796 0.064 0.324 2 392012 1917 1968 52 1.000 0.057 0.090 4.714 0.054 0.236 3 392021 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.075 0.824 3.579 0.065 0.432 4 392022 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.064 0.279 3.033 0.070 -0.015 5 392031 1930 1976 47 1.000 0.092 1.832 8.950 0.074 0.292 6 392032 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.074 0.766 4.784 0.068 0.173 7 392041 1950 1976 27 1.000 0.056 -0.178 3.562 0.063 -0.058 8 392042 1937 1976 40 1.000 0.056 -0.719 2.635 0.064 -0.136 9 392051 1933 1976 44 1.000 0.061 -0.129 3.657 0.069 0.011 10 392052 1928 1976 49 1.000 0.073 0.519 2.837 0.066 0.339 11 392061 1938 1976 39 1.000 0.056 0.136 2.871 0.067 -0.128 12 392062 1920 1976 57 1.000 0.048 0.592 3.582 0.048 0.128 13 393071 1922 1976 55 1.000 0.065 -0.034 3.241 0.069 -0.028 14 393072 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.058 0.046 2.928 0.059 0.163 15 393081 1914 1976 63 1.000 0.082 0.166 5.922 0.076 0.153 16 393082 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.067 -0.137 3.283 0.071 0.147 17 393091 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.075 -0.031 4.173 0.075 0.076 18 393092 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.078 -0.675 3.627 0.079 0.163 19 393101 1903 1976 74 1.000 0.060 -0.254 3.316 0.050 0.362 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 393102 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.045 -0.157 3.024 0.038 0.451 21 394111 1931 1976 46 1.000 0.053 0.230 2.794 0.037 0.534 22 394112 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.071 0.541 3.664 0.058 0.419 23 394121 1913 1976 64 1.000 0.067 0.746 3.135 0.048 0.558 24 394122 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.043 0.140 2.862 0.044 0.134 25 394131 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.060 0.119 2.416 0.064 0.126 26 394132 1932 1976 45 1.000 0.066 -0.282 3.942 0.049 0.421 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.064 0.154 3.705 0.061 0.203 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.012 0.532 1.313 0.012 0.198 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.064 0.104 3.439 0.064 0.163 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.017 0.676 0.868 0.019 0.286 MINIMUM VALUE 26 1.000 0.043 -0.719 2.416 0.037 -0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 45 1.000 0.056 -0.157 2.928 0.050 0.076 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.073 0.519 3.796 0.069 0.362 MAXIMUM VALUE 74 1.000 0.092 1.832 8.950 0.079 0.558 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 392011 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 392012 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 392021 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 392022 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 392031 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 392032 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 392041 -67 18 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 392042 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 392051 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 392052 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 392061 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 392062 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 393071 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 393072 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 393081 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 393082 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 393091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 393092 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 393101 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 393102 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 394111 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 394112 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 394121 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 394122 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 394131 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 394132 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 392011 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.066 -0.383 4.137 0.064 0.192 2 392012 1917 1968 52 1.000 0.053 -0.057 4.630 0.055 0.126 3 392021 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.068 0.527 3.228 0.065 0.318 4 392022 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.059 0.068 3.075 0.070 -0.157 5 392031 1930 1976 47 0.999 0.079 2.052 8.563 0.074 0.112 6 392032 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.062 0.284 4.072 0.069 -0.110 7 392041 1950 1976 27 1.000 0.053 -0.258 4.061 0.063 -0.151 8 392042 1937 1976 40 1.000 0.055 -0.768 2.706 0.064 -0.157 9 392051 1933 1976 44 1.000 0.059 -0.108 4.015 0.069 -0.020 10 392052 1928 1976 49 1.000 0.063 0.275 2.330 0.066 0.112 11 392061 1938 1976 39 1.000 0.053 0.176 2.650 0.067 -0.273 12 392062 1920 1976 57 1.000 0.045 0.933 4.077 0.048 0.011 13 393071 1922 1976 55 1.000 0.062 -0.011 3.312 0.069 -0.129 14 393072 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.054 0.285 3.314 0.059 0.058 15 393081 1914 1976 63 1.000 0.075 0.474 5.055 0.076 0.041 16 393082 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.063 -0.158 3.111 0.071 0.045 17 393091 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.073 0.065 4.105 0.075 0.029 18 393092 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.069 -0.485 3.559 0.078 -0.039 19 393101 1903 1976 74 1.000 0.055 -0.286 3.085 0.050 0.246 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 393102 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.041 -0.141 2.906 0.038 0.320 21 394111 1931 1976 46 1.000 0.034 0.617 2.621 0.037 0.013 22 394112 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.065 0.585 4.133 0.058 0.330 23 394121 1913 1976 64 1.000 0.048 0.968 4.143 0.048 0.171 24 394122 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.040 0.376 3.047 0.044 0.019 25 394131 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.054 -0.010 2.826 0.064 -0.065 26 394132 1932 1976 45 1.000 0.046 0.042 3.687 0.050 0.019 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.058 0.195 3.710 0.061 0.041 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.011 0.561 1.203 0.012 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.057 0.066 3.437 0.064 0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.013 0.616 1.058 0.019 0.191 MINIMUM VALUE 26 0.999 0.034 -0.768 2.330 0.037 -0.273 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 45 1.000 0.053 -0.141 3.047 0.050 -0.065 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.065 0.474 4.105 0.069 0.126 MAXIMUM VALUE 74 1.000 0.079 2.052 8.563 0.078 0.330 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.269 0.173 0.010 -0.580 3.503 -0.441 0.618 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.441 SERIES 392012 AND 394112 35 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.618 SERIES 392032 AND 392041 27 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.69 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1903 1976 74 0.998 0.033 -0.123 2.318 0.044 -0.237 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.021 -0.010 0.057 28 46 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.33 1.01 1.06 1.39 2.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.234 -0.240 0.264 -0.037 -0.151 0.004 0.078 -0.153 -0.044 0.109 PACF -0.234 -0.312 0.137 0.000 -0.069 -0.117 0.008 -0.136 -0.093 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.232 0.245 0.257 0.271 0.272 0.276 0.276 0.277 0.282 0.282 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.168 -0.311 -0.314 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.257 -0.229 0.306 -0.105 -0.216 -0.031 0.144 -0.108 -0.098 0.220 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.257 2 -0.339 -0.317 3 -0.284 -0.258 0.174 4 -0.277 -0.268 0.163 -0.040 5 -0.284 -0.241 0.118 -0.086 -0.168 6 -0.330 -0.264 0.150 -0.152 -0.245 -0.274 7 -0.325 -0.260 0.152 -0.155 -0.241 -0.268 0.016 8 -0.324 -0.274 0.140 -0.162 -0.234 -0.281 0.000 -0.050 9 -0.330 -0.274 0.111 -0.187 -0.251 -0.266 -0.029 -0.083 -0.105 10 -0.327 -0.272 0.112 -0.181 -0.245 -0.262 -0.031 -0.077 -0.097 0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 257.65 254.58 248.75 248.48 250.36 250.24 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 246.49 248.47 250.29 251.47 253.43 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.284 -0.258 0.174 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 18.54 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 122.77 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.284 -0.177 0.298 -0.088 -0.082 0.098 -0.022 -0.033 0.032 -.0043 -0.013 0.010 0.000 -0.005 0.003 0.000 -0.002 0.001 0.000 -.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 392011 3 0.109 0.206 -0.061 0.244 2 392012 3 0.094 0.154 -0.162 -0.012 3 392021 3 0.231 0.163 0.189 0.285 4 392022 3 0.069 -0.156 -0.044 0.186 5 392031 3 0.110 0.142 -0.143 0.110 6 392032 3 0.071 -0.105 -0.117 0.143 7 392041 3 0.157 -0.170 -0.175 0.047 8 392042 3 0.288 -0.159 -0.410 0.177 9 392051 3 0.182 -0.022 -0.051 0.007 10 392052 3 0.060 0.128 -0.067 0.047 11 392061 3 0.160 -0.393 -0.287 -0.171 12 392062 3 0.007 0.011 0.003 0.017 13 393071 3 0.060 -0.132 0.004 -0.026 14 393072 3 0.084 0.084 -0.153 0.108 15 393081 3 0.077 0.041 0.026 0.062 16 393082 3 0.108 0.091 -0.148 0.294 17 393091 3 0.081 0.028 0.125 -0.018 18 393092 3 0.046 -0.054 -0.112 -0.082 19 393101 3 0.091 0.270 -0.074 0.099 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 393102 3 0.173 0.356 -0.149 0.266 21 394111 3 0.010 0.014 0.009 -0.089 22 394112 3 0.164 0.393 -0.179 -0.016 23 394121 3 0.058 0.166 0.044 0.001 24 394122 3 0.010 0.019 0.013 -0.055 25 394131 3 0.060 -0.080 -0.213 -0.005 26 394132 3 0.003 0.021 -0.026 -0.004 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.099 0.039 -0.083 0.062 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.070 0.175 0.125 0.122 MEDIAN 3 0.083 0.025 -0.070 0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.097 0.234 0.157 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.003 -0.393 -0.410 -0.171 LOWER HINGE 3 0.060 -0.080 -0.153 -0.016 UPPER HINGE 3 0.157 0.154 0.004 0.143 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.288 0.393 0.189 0.294 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 392011 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.062 0.081 4.806 0.068 0.013 2 392012 1917 1968 52 1.000 0.052 -0.078 4.449 0.056 -0.009 3 392021 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.060 0.703 4.204 0.068 0.015 4 392022 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.057 0.111 3.087 0.063 0.012 5 392031 1930 1976 47 1.000 0.077 2.019 7.971 0.075 0.030 6 392032 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.060 0.109 3.709 0.064 0.020 7 392041 1950 1976 27 1.000 0.051 -0.008 3.682 0.060 0.014 8 392042 1937 1976 40 1.000 0.047 -0.349 2.509 0.053 0.047 9 392051 1933 1976 44 1.000 0.059 -0.096 4.104 0.068 0.002 10 392052 1928 1976 49 1.000 0.062 0.349 2.329 0.068 0.008 11 392061 1938 1976 39 1.000 0.048 0.205 3.093 0.055 0.024 12 392062 1920 1976 57 1.000 0.045 0.912 4.014 0.048 0.001 13 393071 1922 1976 55 1.000 0.062 0.010 3.233 0.065 -0.003 14 393072 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.053 0.146 2.874 0.059 0.019 15 393081 1914 1976 63 1.000 0.075 0.597 5.541 0.076 0.014 16 393082 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.060 -0.102 2.961 0.070 0.021 17 393091 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.072 -0.003 4.132 0.077 -0.004 18 393092 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.068 -0.517 3.785 0.078 -0.012 19 393101 1903 1976 74 1.000 0.053 0.095 2.986 0.057 0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 393102 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.037 -0.118 2.958 0.042 0.017 21 394111 1931 1976 46 1.000 0.034 0.499 2.547 0.038 0.003 22 394112 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.060 0.398 2.807 0.066 -0.006 23 394121 1913 1976 64 1.000 0.048 1.050 4.347 0.053 0.000 24 394122 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.040 0.326 3.026 0.044 -0.004 25 394131 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.052 0.199 2.530 0.062 -0.001 26 394132 1932 1976 45 1.000 0.046 0.090 3.618 0.050 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.055 0.255 3.665 0.061 0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.011 0.506 1.184 0.011 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.055 0.110 3.426 0.062 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.014 0.406 1.174 0.015 0.019 MINIMUM VALUE 26 1.000 0.034 -0.517 2.329 0.038 -0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 45 1.000 0.048 -0.008 2.958 0.053 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.062 0.398 4.132 0.068 0.018 MAXIMUM VALUE 74 1.000 0.077 2.019 7.971 0.078 0.047 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.258 0.158 0.009 -0.469 3.272 -0.325 0.639 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.325 SERIES 392012 AND 394112 35 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.639 SERIES 393091 AND 393092 56 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.69 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1903 1976 74 0.999 0.031 0.069 2.296 0.041 -0.286 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.013 -0.006 0.050 26 48 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.77 1.00 1.06 1.84 3.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.89 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.282 -0.183 0.160 -0.074 -0.074 -0.031 0.089 -0.102 -0.032 0.124 PACF -0.282 -0.285 0.016 -0.075 -0.090 -0.143 0.010 -0.114 -0.093 0.013 95% C.L. 0.232 0.250 0.257 0.263 0.264 0.265 0.265 0.267 0.269 0.269 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.156 -0.365 -0.286 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.023 -0.044 -0.126 -0.072 -0.095 0.019 -0.079 -0.010 0.062 PACF 0.004 -0.023 -0.044 -0.127 -0.075 -0.107 0.001 -0.113 -0.044 0.022 95% C.L. 0.232 0.232 0.233 0.233 0.237 0.238 0.240 0.240 0.241 0.242 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.020 0.003 -0.023 -0.045 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1903 1976 74 0.999 0.031 -0.015 2.549 0.042 -0.260 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.257 -0.240 0.280 -0.102 -0.155 0.021 0.087 -0.138 -0.035 0.150 PACF -0.257 -0.328 0.137 -0.063 -0.109 -0.159 0.023 -0.117 -0.091 0.007 95% C.L. 0.232 0.247 0.260 0.275 0.278 0.282 0.282 0.284 0.287 0.288 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.186 -0.344 -0.330 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES