RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit049p.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit049p.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 392 1 Mallaig, Loch Morar LATEWOOD_PERCENT PISY - 392 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 20 5658-545 1903 1976 - 392 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 392011 1921 1976 56 3.791 0.792 1.289 4.808 0.220 0.007 2 392012 1917 1968 52 3.440 0.811 0.169 2.665 0.244 0.250 3 392021 1904 1976 73 2.970 1.069 -0.229 2.768 0.238 0.668 4 392022 1906 1976 71 3.171 0.838 1.421 5.802 0.204 0.465 5 392031 1930 1976 47 3.032 0.636 0.079 2.614 0.199 0.286 6 392032 1921 1976 56 3.447 0.683 -0.186 2.921 0.188 0.339 7 392041 1950 1976 27 3.655 0.636 0.095 2.830 0.232 -0.221 8 392042 1937 1976 40 4.035 0.915 0.541 3.161 0.259 0.037 9 392051 1933 1976 44 3.751 0.729 0.079 2.770 0.117 0.645 10 392052 1928 1976 49 3.931 0.774 0.777 4.399 0.209 -0.018 11 392061 1938 1976 39 4.099 0.689 0.576 2.535 0.202 -0.070 12 392062 1920 1976 57 3.674 0.741 0.477 3.804 0.220 0.006 13 393071 1922 1976 55 4.217 0.940 -1.762 9.549 0.252 0.268 14 393072 1921 1976 56 4.111 0.706 -0.612 3.483 0.154 0.489 15 393081 1914 1976 63 3.263 0.797 0.493 3.398 0.238 0.266 16 393082 1904 1976 73 3.383 0.934 -0.658 3.637 0.221 0.509 17 393091 1916 1976 61 2.375 0.606 0.777 3.217 0.212 0.458 18 393092 1921 1976 56 2.510 0.567 0.331 3.233 0.239 0.160 19 393101 1903 1976 74 3.386 1.042 -0.520 2.992 0.283 0.392 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 393102 1906 1976 71 3.635 0.811 0.030 2.903 0.230 0.292 21 394111 1931 1976 46 2.410 0.613 1.013 4.455 0.265 -0.041 22 394112 1934 1976 43 3.554 1.268 0.154 3.070 0.208 0.770 23 394121 1913 1976 64 2.324 1.356 0.399 3.705 0.627 0.219 24 394122 1916 1976 61 2.879 0.813 0.492 2.768 0.289 0.132 25 394131 1934 1976 43 3.369 0.694 0.027 3.152 0.276 -0.250 26 394132 1932 1976 45 3.399 0.883 0.677 3.837 0.284 0.081 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1903 TO 1976 74 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 3.377 0.821 0.228 3.634 0.243 0.236 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.547 0.194 0.662 1.430 0.088 0.267 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 3.420 0.795 0.250 3.189 0.231 0.258 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.719 0.226 0.548 0.974 0.051 0.451 MINIMUM VALUE 26 2.324 0.567 -1.762 2.535 0.117 -0.250 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 45 3.032 0.689 0.027 2.830 0.208 0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 63 3.751 0.915 0.576 3.804 0.259 0.458 MAXIMUM VALUE 74 4.217 1.356 1.421 9.549 0.627 0.770 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.263 0.225 0.013 -0.274 2.522 -0.391 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.391 SERIES 393091 AND 394112 43 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 393101 AND 393102 71 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.69 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1903 1976 74 3.259 0.562 -1.112 7.275 0.157 0.371 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.294 0.166 0.376 20 54 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.41 1.01 1.03 1.44 1.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 56. 18. 27. 45. 63. 74. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.366 0.194 0.113 0.036 0.108 -0.026 0.079 0.136 -0.042 0.057 PACF 0.366 0.069 0.025 -0.027 0.107 -0.112 0.119 0.093 -0.153 0.090 95% C.L. 0.232 0.262 0.269 0.272 0.272 0.275 0.275 0.276 0.280 0.280 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.147 0.371 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 392011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00201811 3.73337650 2 392012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00794331 3.22988677 3 392021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02713069 1.96575344 4 392022 1 4.72058392 0.29545474 0.00000000 2.97713995 5 392031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01432123 3.37562442 6 392032 1 0.82946169 0.13465573 0.00000000 3.34479737 7 392041 1 1.02688897 0.47874182 0.00000000 3.59287667 8 392042 1 1.96894360 0.34480423 0.00000000 3.91569257 9 392051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03505356 2.96197677 10 392052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00857755 3.71678567 11 392061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02184008 4.53577614 12 392062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01164701 3.33627200 13 393071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022439 4.22355556 14 393072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00969207 4.38747406 15 393081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00266081 3.34768558 16 393082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01252746 2.91990876 17 393091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01382020 1.94665575 18 393092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00491148 2.36984420 19 393101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01998238 4.13514996 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 393102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01473709 4.16504240 21 394111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00877767 2.61649275 22 394112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.07153730 5.12777424 23 394121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01006708 2.65139890 24 394122 1 0.81554699 0.30823472 0.00000000 2.84181976 25 394131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01190275 3.63093019 26 394132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01475889 3.73834348 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 392011 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.210 1.382 5.157 0.216 0.007 2 392012 1917 1968 52 1.000 0.236 0.372 3.137 0.239 0.246 3 392021 1904 1976 73 0.995 0.318 0.048 2.856 0.235 0.485 4 392022 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.190 -0.036 2.701 0.199 0.135 5 392031 1930 1976 47 1.000 0.203 0.269 2.319 0.195 0.145 6 392032 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.194 -0.063 2.981 0.186 0.301 7 392041 1950 1976 27 1.000 0.171 0.209 3.119 0.221 -0.239 8 392042 1937 1976 40 1.000 0.217 0.554 3.154 0.255 -0.085 9 392051 1933 1976 44 1.000 0.155 -0.169 2.845 0.116 0.475 10 392052 1928 1976 49 1.000 0.196 0.922 4.666 0.205 -0.038 11 392061 1938 1976 39 1.000 0.155 0.408 2.616 0.196 -0.220 12 392062 1920 1976 57 1.000 0.192 0.273 3.461 0.216 -0.037 13 393071 1922 1976 55 1.000 0.223 -1.764 9.554 0.247 0.263 14 393072 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.169 -0.475 3.209 0.151 0.446 15 393081 1914 1976 63 1.000 0.245 0.564 3.483 0.234 0.259 16 393082 1904 1976 73 0.999 0.270 -0.541 3.539 0.217 0.483 17 393091 1916 1976 61 1.001 0.235 0.716 3.703 0.209 0.363 18 393092 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.223 0.215 2.982 0.235 0.148 19 393101 1903 1976 74 0.998 0.298 -0.042 3.199 0.279 0.222 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 393102 1906 1976 71 0.999 0.209 0.129 2.741 0.227 0.148 21 394111 1931 1976 46 1.000 0.245 0.771 3.918 0.259 -0.057 22 394112 1934 1976 43 0.996 0.240 -0.680 3.870 0.201 0.430 23 394121 1913 1976 64 1.000 0.587 0.498 3.927 0.617 0.189 24 394122 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.283 0.615 2.973 0.284 0.112 25 394131 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.202 0.051 3.061 0.270 -0.305 26 394132 1932 1976 45 1.000 0.254 0.654 3.288 0.278 0.006 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.235 0.188 3.556 0.238 0.149 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.001 0.083 0.611 1.372 0.086 0.229 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.220 0.242 3.176 0.224 0.148 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.051 0.606 0.730 0.054 0.337 MINIMUM VALUE 26 0.995 0.155 -1.764 2.319 0.116 -0.305 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 45 1.000 0.194 -0.042 2.973 0.201 -0.037 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.245 0.564 3.703 0.255 0.301 MAXIMUM VALUE 74 1.001 0.587 1.382 9.554 0.617 0.485 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 392011 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 392012 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 392021 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 392022 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 392031 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 392032 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 392041 -67 18 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 392042 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 392051 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 392052 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 392061 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 392062 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 393071 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 393072 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 393081 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 393082 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 393091 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 393092 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 393101 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 393102 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 394111 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 394112 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 394121 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 394122 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 394131 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 394132 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 392011 1921 1976 56 0.999 0.197 1.259 4.801 0.216 -0.079 2 392012 1917 1968 52 0.998 0.217 0.137 2.662 0.238 0.139 3 392021 1904 1976 73 0.997 0.269 0.582 7.427 0.236 0.210 4 392022 1906 1976 71 0.999 0.178 -0.196 2.894 0.199 0.023 5 392031 1930 1976 47 0.998 0.192 0.303 2.577 0.194 0.058 6 392032 1921 1976 56 0.999 0.189 0.018 3.346 0.186 0.264 7 392041 1950 1976 27 0.999 0.155 -0.101 2.734 0.221 -0.377 8 392042 1937 1976 40 0.999 0.206 0.457 3.203 0.255 -0.160 9 392051 1933 1976 44 0.999 0.148 -0.074 2.785 0.115 0.429 10 392052 1928 1976 49 0.999 0.190 0.894 4.804 0.204 -0.080 11 392061 1938 1976 39 1.000 0.153 0.385 2.565 0.196 -0.247 12 392062 1920 1976 57 0.999 0.171 0.281 3.279 0.216 -0.296 13 393071 1922 1976 55 0.998 0.216 -1.853 10.539 0.247 0.150 14 393072 1921 1976 56 0.999 0.138 -0.351 3.301 0.151 0.079 15 393081 1914 1976 63 0.998 0.231 0.426 3.081 0.233 0.198 16 393082 1904 1976 73 0.994 0.215 -0.091 3.426 0.216 0.204 17 393091 1916 1976 61 0.998 0.204 0.911 4.126 0.207 0.160 18 393092 1921 1976 56 0.999 0.220 0.322 3.097 0.235 0.120 19 393101 1903 1976 74 0.998 0.275 0.338 4.896 0.279 0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 393102 1906 1976 71 0.999 0.187 0.077 2.780 0.226 -0.042 21 394111 1931 1976 46 1.000 0.241 0.929 4.179 0.258 -0.121 22 394112 1934 1976 43 0.995 0.217 -0.342 3.915 0.197 0.300 23 394121 1913 1976 64 0.982 0.542 0.123 3.302 0.617 0.046 24 394122 1916 1976 61 0.997 0.260 0.483 3.054 0.283 -0.021 25 394131 1934 1976 43 0.999 0.192 -0.104 3.270 0.269 -0.385 26 394132 1932 1976 45 0.998 0.224 0.312 2.682 0.277 -0.234 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 0.998 0.216 0.197 3.797 0.237 0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.004 0.075 0.581 1.732 0.087 0.210 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 0.999 0.205 0.292 3.275 0.224 0.035 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.002 0.036 0.548 1.341 0.055 0.280 MINIMUM VALUE 26 0.982 0.138 -1.853 2.565 0.115 -0.385 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 45 0.998 0.187 -0.091 2.785 0.199 -0.121 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 63 0.999 0.224 0.457 4.126 0.255 0.160 MAXIMUM VALUE 74 1.000 0.542 1.259 10.539 0.617 0.429 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.300 0.183 0.010 -0.404 3.000 -0.244 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.244 SERIES 392012 AND 393092 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 394131 AND 394132 43 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.69 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1903 1976 74 0.990 0.122 0.307 3.308 0.137 0.081 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.141 0.061 0.110 41 33 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.70 1.34 1.00 1.20 2.54 5.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.080 -0.063 -0.106 -0.213 -0.032 -0.041 0.118 0.099 -0.248 -0.052 PACF 0.080 -0.070 -0.096 -0.205 -0.017 -0.080 0.088 0.032 -0.281 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.232 0.234 0.235 0.237 0.248 0.248 0.248 0.251 0.253 0.266 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.002 0.034 -0.136 -0.185 -0.058 -0.087 -0.008 0.182 -0.247 -0.025 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.002 2 0.002 0.034 3 0.006 0.034 -0.136 4 -0.019 0.041 -0.135 -0.188 5 -0.030 0.033 -0.133 -0.190 -0.054 6 -0.035 0.014 -0.146 -0.186 -0.057 -0.100 7 -0.041 0.011 -0.158 -0.196 -0.056 -0.102 -0.065 8 -0.032 0.025 -0.150 -0.168 -0.034 -0.104 -0.059 0.143 9 0.012 0.007 -0.182 -0.178 -0.086 -0.150 -0.051 0.133 -0.310 10 -0.019 0.021 -0.187 -0.193 -0.094 -0.168 -0.069 0.134 -0.309 -0.101 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 460.45 462.45 464.36 464.98 464.30 466.08 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 467.34 469.03 469.49 464.01 465.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 392011 0 0.006 2 392012 0 0.020 3 392021 0 0.045 4 392022 0 0.001 5 392031 0 0.003 6 392032 0 0.070 7 392041 0 0.150 8 392042 0 0.028 9 392051 0 0.186 10 392052 0 0.007 11 392061 0 0.063 12 392062 0 0.089 13 393071 0 0.023 14 393072 0 0.007 15 393081 0 0.043 16 393082 0 0.046 17 393091 0 0.026 18 393092 0 0.015 19 393101 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 393102 0 0.002 21 394111 0 0.015 22 394112 0 0.117 23 394121 0 0.002 24 394122 0 0.000 25 394131 0 0.151 26 394132 0 0.057 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.045 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.053 MEDIAN 0 0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.057 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.006 UPPER HINGE 0 0.063 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.186 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 392011 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.197 1.259 4.801 0.216 -0.079 2 392012 1917 1968 52 1.000 0.217 0.137 2.662 0.237 0.139 3 392021 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.269 0.582 7.427 0.235 0.210 4 392022 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.178 -0.196 2.894 0.199 0.023 5 392031 1930 1976 47 1.000 0.192 0.303 2.577 0.193 0.058 6 392032 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.189 0.018 3.346 0.186 0.264 7 392041 1950 1976 27 1.000 0.155 -0.101 2.734 0.221 -0.377 8 392042 1937 1976 40 1.000 0.206 0.457 3.203 0.254 -0.160 9 392051 1933 1976 44 1.000 0.148 -0.074 2.785 0.115 0.429 10 392052 1928 1976 49 1.000 0.190 0.894 4.804 0.204 -0.080 11 392061 1938 1976 39 1.000 0.153 0.385 2.565 0.196 -0.247 12 392062 1920 1976 57 1.000 0.171 0.281 3.279 0.216 -0.296 13 393071 1922 1976 55 1.000 0.216 -1.853 10.539 0.246 0.150 14 393072 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.138 -0.351 3.301 0.151 0.079 15 393081 1914 1976 63 1.000 0.231 0.426 3.081 0.233 0.198 16 393082 1904 1976 73 1.000 0.215 -0.091 3.426 0.214 0.204 17 393091 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.204 0.911 4.126 0.206 0.160 18 393092 1921 1976 56 1.000 0.220 0.322 3.097 0.235 0.120 19 393101 1903 1976 74 1.000 0.275 0.338 4.896 0.278 0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 393102 1906 1976 71 1.000 0.187 0.077 2.780 0.226 -0.042 21 394111 1931 1976 46 1.000 0.241 0.929 4.179 0.258 -0.121 22 394112 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.217 -0.342 3.915 0.196 0.300 23 394121 1913 1976 64 1.000 0.542 0.123 3.302 0.600 0.046 24 394122 1916 1976 61 1.000 0.260 0.483 3.054 0.282 -0.021 25 394131 1934 1976 43 1.000 0.192 -0.104 3.270 0.269 -0.385 26 394132 1932 1976 45 1.000 0.224 0.312 2.682 0.276 -0.234 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 55 1.000 0.216 0.197 3.797 0.236 0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.075 0.581 1.732 0.083 0.210 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 56 1.000 0.205 0.292 3.275 0.223 0.035 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.036 0.548 1.341 0.055 0.280 MINIMUM VALUE 26 1.000 0.138 -1.853 2.565 0.115 -0.385 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 45 1.000 0.187 -0.091 2.785 0.199 -0.121 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.224 0.457 4.126 0.254 0.160 MAXIMUM VALUE 74 1.000 0.542 1.259 10.539 0.600 0.429 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.300 0.183 0.010 -0.404 3.000 -0.244 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.244 SERIES 392012 AND 393092 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 394131 AND 394132 43 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.69 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1903 1976 74 0.992 0.122 0.309 3.298 0.137 0.081 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.151 0.065 0.105 40 34 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.73 1.31 1.06 1.21 2.52 5.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.080 -0.065 -0.106 -0.214 -0.032 -0.040 0.120 0.098 -0.248 -0.053 PACF 0.080 -0.072 -0.096 -0.206 -0.017 -0.080 0.090 0.030 -0.279 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.232 0.234 0.235 0.238 0.248 0.248 0.248 0.251 0.253 0.266 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1903 1976 74 0.992 0.122 0.309 3.298 0.137 0.081 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.080 -0.065 -0.106 -0.214 -0.032 -0.040 0.120 0.098 -0.248 -0.053 PACF 0.080 -0.072 -0.096 -0.206 -0.017 -0.080 0.090 0.030 -0.279 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.232 0.234 0.235 0.238 0.248 0.248 0.248 0.251 0.253 0.266 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.17 MINUTES