RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA556E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA556E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 732 1 Lone Lake WIDTH_EARLY PICO - 732 2 United States of America lodgepole pine 2850 3710-11828 1548 1983 - 732 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 732011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1929 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 732032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1858 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 732082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1839 1839 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 732111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 0.696 0.507 1.055 3.417 0.304 0.884 2 732012 1583 1983 401 0.647 0.305 0.976 3.753 0.243 0.794 3 732021 1682 1983 302 1.001 0.519 1.282 4.456 0.211 0.856 4 732022 1679 1983 305 0.899 0.659 0.983 2.973 0.216 0.918 5 732032 1603 1983 381 0.665 0.383 1.103 5.048 0.278 0.824 6 732041 1695 1983 289 0.699 0.406 0.860 2.684 0.198 0.913 7 732042 1682 1983 302 0.637 0.370 1.202 4.026 0.241 0.873 8 732051 1797 1983 187 0.804 0.242 -0.083 3.036 0.250 0.590 9 732052 1759 1983 225 0.964 0.313 0.720 4.173 0.215 0.690 10 732061 1548 1980 433 0.523 0.359 2.225 10.543 0.286 0.837 11 732062 1566 1983 418 0.475 0.299 1.671 6.940 0.257 0.838 12 732071 1660 1983 324 0.535 0.260 0.821 3.681 0.264 0.814 13 732072 1711 1983 273 0.418 0.187 0.748 3.488 0.285 0.725 14 732081 1633 1983 351 0.764 0.424 1.973 7.931 0.215 0.847 15 732082 1608 1983 376 0.702 0.558 2.286 8.436 0.277 0.876 16 732091 1691 1983 293 0.564 0.298 1.539 6.027 0.251 0.768 17 732092 1800 1983 184 0.446 0.257 1.614 6.076 0.252 0.813 18 732101 1630 1983 354 0.463 0.380 1.428 4.969 0.309 0.890 19 732102 1620 1983 364 0.487 0.430 1.873 7.143 0.304 0.910 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 0.520 0.338 1.147 4.545 0.258 0.852 21 732112 1629 1983 355 0.579 0.446 1.375 4.807 0.256 0.900 22 732121 1758 1983 226 0.853 0.247 0.876 4.508 0.196 0.639 23 732122 1736 1983 248 0.587 0.200 0.279 3.287 0.248 0.555 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1548 TO 1983 436 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 0.649 0.365 1.215 5.041 0.253 0.809 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.168 0.119 0.576 2.005 0.033 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 0.637 0.359 1.147 4.508 0.252 0.838 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.211 0.148 0.709 2.467 0.050 0.099 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.418 0.187 -0.083 2.684 0.196 0.555 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 0.521 0.279 0.868 3.584 0.228 0.781 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 0.733 0.427 1.577 6.052 0.278 0.880 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.001 0.659 2.286 10.543 0.309 0.918 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.472 0.263 0.017 -0.396 2.360 -0.166 0.921 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.166 SERIES 732092 AND 732111 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.921 SERIES 732111 AND 732112 355 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.823 0.385 0.268 0.235 0.312 0.412 0.501 0.492 0.371 0.430 SDEV 0.000 0.037 0.299 0.330 0.221 0.187 0.174 0.237 0.213 0.195 SERR 0.000 0.021 0.065 0.044 0.027 0.016 0.014 0.018 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.946 0.822 0.798 0.802 0.880 0.927 0.951 0.953 0.929 0.946 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.427 0.411 0.343 0.425 0.453 SDEV 0.232 0.192 0.251 0.206 0.208 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.016 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.945 0.941 0.923 0.944 0.950 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.704 0.351 1.435 5.956 0.188 0.849 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.286 0.128 0.184 226 210 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.79 1.00 1.15 1.94 9.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 324. 82. 184. 281. 362. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.847 0.773 0.762 0.735 0.718 0.674 0.673 0.662 0.613 0.562 PACF 0.847 0.198 0.255 0.081 0.110 -0.056 0.133 0.017 -0.078 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.096 0.149 0.182 0.210 0.232 0.252 0.268 0.283 0.297 0.308 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.752 0.595 -0.002 0.206 0.017 0.109 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 732011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00354874 1.30445564 2 732012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00102584 0.85337669 3 732021 1 0.70728904 0.01218751 0.00000000 0.81492412 4 732022 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 732032 1 0.55909306 0.00740076 0.00000000 0.47841612 6 732041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00417175 1.30369234 7 732042 1 1.10776687 0.00950015 0.00000000 0.27445084 8 732051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00146820 0.94223565 9 732052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100009 0.85098928 10 732061 1 1.13048506 0.01560386 0.00000000 0.35680673 11 732062 1 0.92004210 0.00814555 0.00000000 0.21482465 12 732071 1 0.68401968 0.01586038 0.00000000 0.40372542 13 732072 1 0.34155738 0.02786048 0.00000000 0.37332183 14 732081 1 1.50017381 0.01422387 0.00000000 0.46754229 15 732082 1 1.95690894 0.01587164 0.00000000 0.37681615 16 732091 1 0.62255770 0.01159625 0.00000000 0.38772637 17 732092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00230500 0.23309159 18 732101 1 1.37103534 0.01054382 0.00000000 0.10651927 19 732102 1 1.54775929 0.01202281 0.00000000 0.14004213 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 732111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00266808 1.00200748 21 732112 1 1.59763527 0.00881193 0.00000000 0.09255143 22 732121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018481 0.87442714 23 732122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033272 0.54514921 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 1.155 1.105 4.552 28.676 0.307 0.788 2 732012 1583 1983 401 0.998 0.423 0.864 3.679 0.243 0.746 3 732021 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.492 1.356 4.554 0.210 0.844 4 732022 1679 1983 305 0.995 0.331 0.519 3.351 0.215 0.700 5 732032 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.554 1.278 6.165 0.280 0.800 6 732041 1695 1983 289 1.091 0.586 4.002 24.348 0.198 0.755 7 732042 1682 1983 302 1.003 0.374 0.571 2.994 0.240 0.666 8 732051 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.290 -0.047 2.951 0.248 0.524 9 732052 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.314 0.461 3.279 0.214 0.670 10 732061 1548 1980 433 1.001 0.462 0.329 2.615 0.285 0.701 11 732062 1566 1983 418 0.996 0.359 0.186 2.580 0.256 0.641 12 732071 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.388 0.353 3.391 0.264 0.707 13 732072 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.406 0.339 2.709 0.284 0.668 14 732081 1633 1983 351 0.999 0.244 0.296 2.718 0.214 0.400 15 732082 1608 1983 376 1.003 0.373 0.865 4.373 0.278 0.535 16 732091 1691 1983 293 1.000 0.447 1.582 7.264 0.250 0.661 17 732092 1800 1983 184 0.997 0.455 1.094 4.272 0.251 0.747 18 732101 1630 1983 354 0.997 0.385 1.468 7.551 0.308 0.420 19 732102 1620 1983 364 1.009 0.364 0.593 3.113 0.303 0.426 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 1.089 0.674 4.484 28.328 0.260 0.782 21 732112 1629 1983 355 0.995 0.342 0.475 4.390 0.256 0.545 22 732121 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.289 0.857 4.461 0.195 0.634 23 732122 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.340 0.246 3.085 0.247 0.549 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 1.014 0.435 1.162 6.993 0.252 0.648 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.040 0.178 1.336 8.118 0.034 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 1.000 0.385 0.593 3.679 0.251 0.668 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.003 0.118 0.972 2.320 0.052 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.995 0.244 -0.047 2.580 0.195 0.400 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 0.999 0.341 0.346 3.039 0.227 0.547 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 1.002 0.459 1.317 5.359 0.279 0.747 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.155 1.105 4.552 28.676 0.308 0.844 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 732011 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 732012 -67 268 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 732021 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 732022 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 732032 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 732041 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 732042 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 732051 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 732052 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 732061 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 732062 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 732071 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 732072 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 732081 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 732082 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 732091 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 732092 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 732101 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 732102 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 732111 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 732112 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 732121 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 732122 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 0.989 0.484 0.758 3.919 0.306 0.715 2 732012 1583 1983 401 0.989 0.346 0.408 2.914 0.243 0.635 3 732021 1682 1983 302 0.987 0.445 1.424 5.135 0.210 0.816 4 732022 1679 1983 305 0.997 0.323 0.607 3.619 0.215 0.684 5 732032 1603 1983 381 0.971 0.419 1.029 5.520 0.280 0.682 6 732041 1695 1983 289 0.997 0.284 0.800 5.009 0.198 0.572 7 732042 1682 1983 302 0.996 0.350 0.510 2.909 0.240 0.625 8 732051 1797 1983 187 0.998 0.282 -0.080 2.944 0.249 0.498 9 732052 1759 1983 225 0.996 0.286 0.131 2.914 0.214 0.623 10 732061 1548 1980 433 0.985 0.380 0.524 3.175 0.285 0.584 11 732062 1566 1983 418 0.995 0.328 0.122 2.578 0.256 0.576 12 732071 1660 1983 324 0.996 0.368 0.127 3.114 0.264 0.681 13 732072 1711 1983 273 0.996 0.393 0.265 2.630 0.284 0.649 14 732081 1633 1983 351 0.999 0.239 0.313 2.777 0.214 0.366 15 732082 1608 1983 376 0.994 0.338 0.547 3.546 0.278 0.453 16 732091 1691 1983 293 0.994 0.415 1.287 6.101 0.250 0.652 17 732092 1800 1983 184 0.987 0.391 0.678 3.125 0.251 0.672 18 732101 1630 1983 354 0.994 0.342 0.799 4.308 0.308 0.354 19 732102 1620 1983 364 0.997 0.323 0.604 3.949 0.303 0.280 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 0.994 0.373 0.950 5.195 0.260 0.639 21 732112 1629 1983 355 0.996 0.338 0.654 4.968 0.255 0.510 22 732121 1758 1983 226 0.997 0.256 0.730 3.656 0.195 0.553 23 732122 1736 1983 248 0.992 0.302 0.270 2.929 0.248 0.429 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 0.993 0.348 0.585 3.780 0.252 0.576 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.006 0.060 0.374 1.051 0.034 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 0.995 0.342 0.604 3.546 0.251 0.623 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.006 0.073 0.487 1.716 0.052 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.971 0.239 -0.080 2.578 0.195 0.280 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 0.991 0.313 0.291 2.922 0.227 0.504 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 0.997 0.385 0.779 4.638 0.279 0.662 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 0.999 0.484 1.424 6.101 0.308 0.816 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.409 0.147 0.009 -0.031 2.641 0.039 0.762 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.039 SERIES 732061 AND 732082 373 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.762 SERIES 732071 AND 732072 273 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.758 0.463 0.313 0.287 0.255 0.445 0.455 0.395 0.361 0.414 SDEV 0.000 0.064 0.200 0.248 0.204 0.183 0.168 0.211 0.196 0.192 SERR 0.000 0.037 0.044 0.033 0.025 0.016 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.922 0.864 0.830 0.842 0.847 0.935 0.942 0.931 0.926 0.942 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.463 0.421 0.391 0.427 0.456 SDEV 0.200 0.183 0.222 0.198 0.197 SERR 0.013 0.012 0.014 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.952 0.944 0.937 0.945 0.951 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.990 0.258 0.467 3.289 0.189 0.592 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.261 0.103 0.135 124 312 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.59 1.00 1.08 1.67 31.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.590 0.397 0.332 0.292 0.303 0.197 0.149 0.141 0.019 -0.063 PACF 0.590 0.075 0.110 0.066 0.118 -0.092 0.010 0.020 -0.161 -0.101 95% C.L. 0.096 0.125 0.136 0.143 0.148 0.154 0.156 0.158 0.159 0.159 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.389 0.536 0.010 0.071 0.018 0.167 -0.090 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.594 0.419 0.347 0.317 0.349 0.248 0.165 0.152 0.015 -0.039 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.594 2 0.533 0.103 3 0.523 0.051 0.097 4 0.514 0.046 0.051 0.089 5 0.501 0.038 0.044 0.010 0.153 6 0.513 0.039 0.047 0.013 0.194 -0.081 7 0.509 0.048 0.048 0.015 0.195 -0.057 -0.047 8 0.511 0.050 0.042 0.015 0.194 -0.058 -0.062 0.030 9 0.517 0.038 0.030 0.053 0.197 -0.050 -0.052 0.131 -0.198 10 0.502 0.047 0.027 0.050 0.211 -0.046 -0.050 0.134 -0.160 -0.073 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3920.77 3733.08 3730.47 3728.32 3726.87 3718.52 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3717.67 3718.73 3720.32 3704.95 3704.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 6 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.513 0.039 0.047 0.013 0.194 -0.081 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 38.94 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 163.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 6) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.513 0.303 0.223 0.164 0.307 0.197 0.141 0.115 0.092 0.1072 0.079 0.062 0.052 0.043 0.041 0.033 0.027 0.023 0.019 0.0168 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0030 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 732011 6 0.554 0.643 0.035 0.034 0.023 0.111 -0.038 2 732012 6 0.433 0.550 0.088 0.103 -0.061 0.039 0.003 3 732021 6 0.683 0.862 -0.118 -0.034 0.135 0.011 -0.005 4 732022 6 0.488 0.647 -0.041 0.026 0.032 0.045 0.078 5 732032 6 0.485 0.626 0.036 -0.016 0.008 0.145 -0.030 6 732041 6 0.415 0.470 0.054 0.193 -0.048 0.171 -0.094 7 732042 6 0.438 0.662 -0.176 0.098 0.071 0.124 -0.048 8 732051 6 0.352 0.617 -0.202 0.128 -0.151 0.386 -0.226 9 732052 6 0.428 0.579 0.000 -0.011 0.056 0.194 -0.076 10 732061 6 0.389 0.435 0.068 0.116 0.044 0.052 0.057 11 732062 6 0.364 0.474 0.064 0.077 0.045 0.103 -0.051 12 732071 6 0.495 0.646 -0.031 0.006 0.148 -0.016 0.025 13 732072 6 0.469 0.489 0.131 0.047 0.094 0.042 -0.017 14 732081 6 0.200 0.262 0.219 -0.014 0.064 0.093 -0.022 15 732082 6 0.354 0.234 0.294 -0.004 0.188 0.102 -0.063 16 732091 6 0.477 0.576 0.082 0.063 0.016 0.092 -0.091 17 732092 6 0.499 0.542 0.141 0.069 -0.063 0.201 -0.126 18 732101 6 0.253 0.202 0.180 0.059 -0.042 0.197 0.133 19 732102 6 0.103 0.239 0.053 0.072 0.028 0.095 -0.005 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 732111 6 0.474 0.481 0.123 0.070 0.044 0.089 -0.007 21 732112 6 0.360 0.336 0.121 0.151 0.041 0.143 -0.032 22 732121 6 0.338 0.548 0.110 -0.203 0.143 0.040 -0.055 23 732122 6 0.233 0.342 0.194 -0.068 0.071 0.053 0.029 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 6 0.404 0.498 0.062 0.042 0.038 0.109 -0.029 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.125 0.167 0.119 0.082 0.078 0.085 0.072 MEDIAN 6 0.428 0.542 0.068 0.059 0.044 0.095 -0.030 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.128 0.233 0.109 0.095 0.059 0.095 0.058 MINIMUM VALUE 6 0.103 0.202 -0.202 -0.203 -0.151 -0.016 -0.226 LOWER HINGE 6 0.353 0.388 0.018 -0.007 0.012 0.048 -0.059 UPPER HINGE 6 0.481 0.621 0.127 0.088 0.071 0.144 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 6 0.683 0.862 0.294 0.193 0.188 0.386 0.133 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.322 0.438 4.153 0.353 0.021 2 732012 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.260 0.178 3.511 0.287 0.005 3 732021 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.250 0.683 6.430 0.280 0.004 4 732022 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.231 0.256 2.906 0.267 0.005 5 732032 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.301 0.772 4.959 0.321 0.001 6 732041 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.217 0.430 3.661 0.239 0.017 7 732042 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.262 0.551 3.351 0.290 0.005 8 732051 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.227 0.021 3.467 0.255 0.005 9 732052 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.217 -0.203 3.077 0.254 0.001 10 732061 1548 1980 433 1.000 0.297 0.350 3.968 0.333 0.000 11 732062 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.261 0.031 3.086 0.304 -0.003 12 732071 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.261 -0.030 2.759 0.303 0.009 13 732072 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.286 -0.124 3.240 0.334 0.004 14 732081 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.213 0.065 3.000 0.241 -0.002 15 732082 1608 1983 376 1.000 0.271 0.472 3.886 0.307 0.002 16 732091 1691 1983 293 1.000 0.299 0.862 4.795 0.320 0.007 17 732092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.277 0.863 4.226 0.298 -0.007 18 732101 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.295 0.511 3.393 0.328 0.014 19 732102 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.306 0.732 4.681 0.333 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.269 0.278 3.493 0.309 0.022 21 732112 1629 1983 355 1.000 0.270 0.639 4.047 0.284 0.016 22 732121 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.208 0.297 3.290 0.236 0.001 23 732122 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.264 0.432 3.504 0.286 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 1.000 0.264 0.370 3.778 0.294 0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.000 0.033 0.312 0.834 0.034 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 1.000 0.264 0.430 3.504 0.298 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.050 0.473 0.835 0.047 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 184 1.000 0.208 -0.203 2.759 0.236 -0.007 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 1.000 0.241 0.121 3.265 0.273 0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 1.000 0.291 0.595 4.100 0.320 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.322 0.863 6.430 0.353 0.022 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.413 0.122 0.008 -0.268 3.207 0.053 0.771 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.053 SERIES 732061 AND 732122 245 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.771 SERIES 732071 AND 732072 273 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.834 0.618 0.414 0.356 0.307 0.407 0.487 0.435 0.429 0.466 SDEV 0.000 0.056 0.149 0.150 0.162 0.156 0.140 0.176 0.171 0.167 SERR 0.000 0.033 0.033 0.020 0.020 0.013 0.011 0.013 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.950 0.923 0.884 0.880 0.878 0.925 0.949 0.941 0.943 0.953 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.416 0.351 0.457 0.490 0.431 SDEV 0.156 0.166 0.166 0.133 0.146 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.942 0.925 0.951 0.957 0.946 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.999 0.199 0.099 3.178 0.221 0.074 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.140 0.052 0.127 141 295 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.38 1.01 1.08 1.46 9.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.073 -0.040 -0.009 -0.005 0.072 -0.041 0.023 0.121 -0.053 -0.095 PACF 0.073 -0.046 -0.002 -0.006 0.073 -0.054 0.037 0.115 -0.071 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.099 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.008 0.074 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.004 -0.012 0.001 0.003 0.005 0.031 0.113 -0.058 -0.086 PACF 0.002 0.004 -0.012 0.001 0.003 0.005 0.031 0.113 -0.059 -0.087 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.001 0.002 0.004 -0.012 0.001 0.003 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.991 0.247 0.542 3.536 0.187 0.564 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.563 0.380 0.303 0.252 0.281 0.177 0.139 0.128 -0.005 -0.075 PACF 0.563 0.093 0.083 0.050 0.135 -0.086 0.016 0.019 -0.167 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.096 0.122 0.133 0.139 0.143 0.148 0.150 0.151 0.152 0.152 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.339 0.508 0.053 0.083 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.51 MINUTES