RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA556L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA556L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 732 1 Lone Lake WIDTH_LATE PICO - 732 2 United States of America lodgepole pine 2850 3710-11828 1548 1983 - 732 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 732011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 2 GAPS / 1887 1891 / 1929 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 732012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1834 1838 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 732032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1848 1852 / 1858 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 732042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 732061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1890 1895 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 732062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 732082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1809 1813 / 1839 1839 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 732101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 732102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1858 1866 / 1961 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 732111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 0.148 0.094 1.678 5.642 0.241 0.846 2 732012 1583 1983 401 0.117 0.047 1.365 5.210 0.241 0.621 3 732021 1682 1983 302 0.182 0.115 2.038 8.135 0.287 0.657 4 732022 1679 1983 305 0.170 0.120 1.907 7.012 0.254 0.787 5 732032 1603 1983 381 0.149 0.074 1.434 6.014 0.251 0.693 6 732041 1695 1983 289 0.136 0.131 8.912110.427 0.214 0.461 7 732042 1682 1983 302 0.124 0.066 2.885 15.935 0.216 0.683 8 732051 1797 1983 187 0.132 0.039 0.956 4.058 0.200 0.548 9 732052 1759 1983 225 0.142 0.046 1.031 4.634 0.240 0.520 10 732061 1548 1980 433 0.106 0.069 3.264 18.779 0.257 0.766 11 732062 1566 1983 418 0.112 0.050 2.728 13.063 0.211 0.663 12 732071 1660 1983 324 0.109 0.038 1.184 4.809 0.221 0.635 13 732072 1711 1983 273 0.107 0.054 1.672 5.134 0.192 0.826 14 732081 1633 1983 351 0.161 0.092 2.464 12.074 0.309 0.699 15 732082 1608 1983 376 0.177 0.183 2.998 12.035 0.259 0.907 16 732091 1691 1983 293 0.129 0.074 5.095 46.443 0.263 0.333 17 732092 1800 1983 184 0.103 0.034 1.007 3.452 0.203 0.549 18 732101 1630 1983 354 0.116 0.058 2.460 12.784 0.248 0.672 19 732102 1620 1983 364 0.121 0.080 2.554 11.309 0.265 0.707 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 0.101 0.083 4.740 38.950 0.237 0.736 21 732112 1629 1983 355 0.109 0.051 2.601 11.116 0.218 0.744 22 732121 1758 1983 226 0.175 0.083 1.305 4.526 0.375 0.419 23 732122 1736 1983 248 0.182 0.064 0.811 3.463 0.217 0.592 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1548 TO 1983 436 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 315 0.135 0.076 2.482 15.870 0.244 0.655 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.028 0.035 1.797 23.258 0.040 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 0.129 0.069 2.038 8.135 0.241 0.672 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.045 0.037 1.472 7.952 0.042 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.101 0.034 0.811 3.452 0.192 0.333 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 0.111 0.051 1.335 4.972 0.216 0.571 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 357 0.155 0.088 2.806 12.923 0.258 0.740 MAXIMUM VALUE 427 0.182 0.183 8.912110.427 0.375 0.907 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.363 0.190 0.012 0.210 2.449 -0.066 0.815 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.066 SERIES 732112 AND 732122 248 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.815 SERIES 732111 AND 732112 355 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.546 0.221 0.179 0.141 0.195 0.210 0.254 0.243 0.179 0.229 SDEV 0.000 0.104 0.262 0.292 0.210 0.193 0.200 0.258 0.178 0.195 SERR 0.000 0.060 0.057 0.039 0.026 0.017 0.016 0.020 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.819 0.677 0.702 0.685 0.797 0.827 0.869 0.870 0.828 0.872 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.230 0.169 0.116 0.169 0.204 SDEV 0.211 0.228 0.225 0.235 0.212 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.873 0.824 0.751 0.824 0.855 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.144 0.069 2.498 13.285 0.162 0.770 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.370 0.208 0.023 239 197 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.64 1.48 1.00 1.19 2.68 39.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 324. 82. 184. 281. 362. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.768 0.714 0.712 0.668 0.642 0.625 0.589 0.607 0.602 0.551 PACF 0.768 0.301 0.260 0.077 0.066 0.055 -0.004 0.131 0.071 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.096 0.141 0.171 0.197 0.216 0.233 0.248 0.261 0.273 0.285 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.679 0.416 0.137 0.199 0.025 0.060 0.077 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 732011 1 0.24418117 0.00609528 0.00000000 0.04381823 2 732012 1 0.15126906 0.00209932 0.00000000 0.01415457 3 732021 1 0.22022881 0.02028251 0.00000000 0.14670590 4 732022 1 0.38772145 0.01260434 0.00000000 0.07166824 5 732032 1 0.16646793 0.00719423 0.00000000 0.09100822 6 732041 1 0.50086683 0.04400827 0.00000000 0.09770826 7 732042 1 0.18464039 0.01100151 0.00000000 0.06958254 8 732051 1 0.04390768 0.05108204 0.00000000 0.12771279 9 732052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019443 0.12007421 10 732061 1 0.31482115 0.03632208 0.00000000 0.08662769 11 732062 1 0.20460929 0.02759518 0.00000000 0.09473899 12 732071 1 0.09314299 0.01242274 0.00000000 0.08621092 13 732072 1 0.21600708 0.03006587 0.00000000 0.08078814 14 732081 1 0.32771879 0.02201583 0.00000000 0.11927482 15 732082 1 0.76346427 0.02342707 0.00000000 0.09066356 16 732091 1 0.19758506 0.04162841 0.00000000 0.11314622 17 732092 1 0.07867157 0.13789161 0.00000000 0.10053207 18 732101 1 0.23735389 0.03513508 0.00000000 0.09596859 19 732102 1 0.26027027 0.01481624 0.00000000 0.07135577 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 732111 1 0.37176523 0.03154789 0.00000000 0.06860791 21 732112 1 0.24329270 0.03675999 0.00000000 0.09076811 22 732121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042226 0.22274926 23 732122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031329 0.22126257 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 1.006 0.446 1.054 3.959 0.242 0.692 2 732012 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.330 1.276 5.408 0.240 0.460 3 732021 1682 1983 302 0.999 0.609 3.197 17.493 0.286 0.583 4 732022 1679 1983 305 1.001 0.345 1.239 5.800 0.254 0.438 5 732032 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.414 1.109 4.915 0.250 0.622 6 732041 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.368 3.114 22.152 0.214 0.392 7 732042 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.298 1.670 9.476 0.215 0.404 8 732051 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.288 1.019 4.537 0.199 0.541 9 732052 1759 1983 225 1.001 0.307 0.812 3.552 0.239 0.472 10 732061 1548 1980 433 1.001 0.390 1.155 5.419 0.256 0.637 11 732062 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.257 0.948 4.646 0.209 0.377 12 732071 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.272 0.898 5.121 0.221 0.440 13 732072 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.287 1.922 13.115 0.192 0.426 14 732081 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.337 1.160 4.673 0.308 0.215 15 732082 1608 1983 376 1.012 0.308 0.700 3.934 0.258 0.365 16 732091 1691 1983 293 1.000 0.425 2.852 16.341 0.262 0.344 17 732092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.320 1.234 4.210 0.203 0.506 18 732101 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.339 0.873 3.611 0.245 0.511 19 732102 1620 1983 364 0.999 0.314 1.041 4.052 0.262 0.363 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 0.998 0.305 0.683 4.392 0.236 0.437 21 732112 1629 1983 355 1.000 0.243 0.700 3.672 0.218 0.295 22 732121 1758 1983 226 0.999 0.441 1.272 4.435 0.373 0.339 23 732122 1736 1983 248 0.999 0.323 0.900 4.661 0.216 0.489 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 1.001 0.346 1.340 6.938 0.243 0.450 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.003 0.080 0.740 5.179 0.040 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 1.000 0.323 1.109 4.661 0.240 0.438 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.001 0.077 0.375 1.478 0.041 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.998 0.243 0.683 3.552 0.192 0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 1.000 0.302 0.899 4.131 0.216 0.371 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 1.000 0.379 1.274 5.610 0.257 0.508 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.012 0.609 3.197 22.152 0.373 0.692 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 732011 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 732012 -67 268 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 732021 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 732022 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 732032 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 732041 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 732042 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 732051 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 732052 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 732061 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 732062 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 732071 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 732072 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 732081 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 732082 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 732091 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 732092 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 732101 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 732102 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 732111 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 732112 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 732121 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 732122 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 0.991 0.371 0.791 3.456 0.242 0.610 2 732012 1583 1983 401 0.997 0.301 1.020 4.565 0.240 0.384 3 732021 1682 1983 302 0.991 0.566 3.145 16.915 0.286 0.555 4 732022 1679 1983 305 0.996 0.326 1.233 5.956 0.254 0.377 5 732032 1603 1983 381 0.990 0.358 1.074 4.990 0.250 0.543 6 732041 1695 1983 289 0.996 0.342 3.732 31.562 0.214 0.301 7 732042 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.296 1.684 9.585 0.215 0.398 8 732051 1797 1983 187 0.998 0.276 0.831 3.568 0.199 0.508 9 732052 1759 1983 225 0.998 0.282 0.505 2.779 0.239 0.418 10 732061 1548 1980 433 0.996 0.347 1.258 7.172 0.256 0.516 11 732062 1566 1983 418 0.999 0.244 0.773 4.282 0.209 0.319 12 732071 1660 1983 324 0.998 0.263 0.845 4.770 0.221 0.394 13 732072 1711 1983 273 0.998 0.275 1.959 13.792 0.192 0.395 14 732081 1633 1983 351 0.999 0.326 1.122 4.710 0.308 0.169 15 732082 1608 1983 376 0.998 0.289 0.692 3.685 0.258 0.320 16 732091 1691 1983 293 0.998 0.414 2.740 15.563 0.262 0.324 17 732092 1800 1983 184 0.996 0.293 0.976 3.502 0.203 0.471 18 732101 1630 1983 354 0.998 0.333 1.003 4.181 0.245 0.485 19 732102 1620 1983 364 0.998 0.303 1.072 4.292 0.262 0.315 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 0.999 0.260 0.915 6.490 0.237 0.232 21 732112 1629 1983 355 0.999 0.235 0.626 3.650 0.218 0.253 22 732121 1758 1983 226 0.999 0.430 1.246 4.628 0.373 0.298 23 732122 1736 1983 248 0.996 0.311 1.320 7.033 0.216 0.417 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 0.997 0.323 1.329 7.440 0.244 0.391 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.003 0.072 0.824 6.570 0.040 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 0.998 0.303 1.072 4.710 0.240 0.394 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.002 0.065 0.451 3.169 0.041 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.990 0.235 0.505 2.779 0.192 0.169 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 0.996 0.279 0.838 3.933 0.215 0.317 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 0.998 0.345 1.289 7.102 0.257 0.478 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.566 3.732 31.562 0.373 0.610 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.206 0.123 0.008 0.389 2.838 -0.042 0.546 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.042 SERIES 732061 AND 732082 373 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.546 SERIES 732091 AND 732092 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.367 0.145 0.162 0.214 0.167 0.195 0.212 0.200 0.166 0.205 SDEV 0.000 0.073 0.184 0.213 0.166 0.187 0.187 0.202 0.189 0.185 SERR 0.000 0.042 0.040 0.029 0.020 0.016 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.686 0.555 0.675 0.783 0.764 0.814 0.840 0.838 0.815 0.856 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.240 0.171 0.131 0.164 0.203 SDEV 0.210 0.223 0.227 0.216 0.205 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.879 0.826 0.777 0.819 0.854 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.977 0.203 0.852 5.278 0.166 0.420 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.288 0.144 0.098 160 276 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 0.79 1.00 1.10 1.89 16.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.419 0.247 0.193 0.132 0.130 0.070 0.018 0.070 0.051 -0.054 PACF 0.419 0.086 0.076 0.017 0.055 -0.026 -0.035 0.069 0.001 -0.111 95% C.L. 0.096 0.111 0.116 0.119 0.120 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.192 0.379 0.064 0.075 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.463 0.291 0.222 0.195 0.223 0.191 0.152 0.144 0.061 -0.035 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.463 2 0.417 0.098 3 0.411 0.068 0.071 4 0.406 0.064 0.044 0.066 5 0.398 0.059 0.037 0.020 0.112 6 0.395 0.058 0.036 0.018 0.099 0.033 7 0.394 0.057 0.036 0.018 0.098 0.028 0.012 8 0.394 0.056 0.032 0.017 0.097 0.026 -0.002 0.035 9 0.396 0.056 0.034 0.024 0.098 0.028 0.002 0.063 -0.071 10 0.388 0.063 0.034 0.028 0.110 0.031 0.006 0.069 -0.024 -0.119 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3580.86 3477.75 3475.55 3475.34 3475.45 3471.95 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3473.48 3475.42 3476.90 3476.69 3472.45 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.411 0.068 0.071 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.57 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 129.15 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.411 0.237 0.196 0.126 0.082 0.056 0.038 0.025 0.017 0.0113 0.008 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 732011 3 0.413 0.468 0.172 0.084 2 732012 3 0.181 0.315 0.122 0.096 3 732021 3 0.386 0.375 0.315 0.018 4 732022 3 0.161 0.360 -0.012 0.128 5 732032 3 0.315 0.452 0.129 0.055 6 732041 3 0.132 0.241 0.105 0.138 7 732042 3 0.168 0.366 0.089 0.001 8 732051 3 0.270 0.470 0.058 0.039 9 732052 3 0.194 0.397 0.002 0.105 10 732061 3 0.303 0.394 0.161 0.096 11 732062 3 0.129 0.261 0.138 0.066 12 732071 3 0.173 0.372 0.015 0.099 13 732072 3 0.194 0.308 0.163 0.077 14 732081 3 0.041 0.158 0.054 0.025 15 732082 3 0.135 0.270 0.093 0.114 16 732091 3 0.124 0.297 0.093 0.030 17 732092 3 0.267 0.373 0.134 0.114 18 732101 3 0.333 0.297 0.185 0.229 19 732102 3 0.120 0.286 0.061 0.065 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 732111 3 0.089 0.182 0.150 0.081 21 732112 3 0.072 0.233 0.057 0.048 22 732121 3 0.096 0.320 -0.067 0.005 23 732122 3 0.195 0.406 -0.030 0.127 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.195 0.330 0.095 0.080 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.101 0.085 0.084 0.052 MEDIAN 3 0.173 0.320 0.093 0.081 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.142 0.106 0.089 0.066 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.041 0.158 -0.067 0.001 LOWER HINGE 3 0.126 0.278 0.055 0.044 UPPER HINGE 3 0.269 0.384 0.144 0.109 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.413 0.470 0.315 0.229 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.284 0.952 4.689 0.296 0.001 2 732012 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.272 0.886 4.669 0.280 0.002 3 732021 1682 1983 302 1.003 0.434 3.250 22.456 0.355 0.017 4 732022 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.299 0.982 5.450 0.308 0.008 5 732032 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.296 0.806 4.705 0.303 -0.002 6 732041 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.320 4.545 45.069 0.245 -0.007 7 732042 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.270 2.117 12.908 0.253 0.004 8 732051 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.236 0.819 4.724 0.254 -0.002 9 732052 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.254 0.771 3.891 0.275 -0.012 10 732061 1548 1980 433 1.000 0.290 1.167 8.148 0.308 0.001 11 732062 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.227 0.719 4.176 0.242 -0.003 12 732071 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.239 0.943 4.706 0.259 0.009 13 732072 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.247 2.780 22.279 0.221 -0.002 14 732081 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.321 1.081 4.577 0.335 -0.002 15 732082 1608 1983 376 1.000 0.269 0.791 4.085 0.293 -0.005 16 732091 1691 1983 293 1.000 0.388 2.755 18.002 0.312 0.015 17 732092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.252 1.023 4.675 0.248 0.000 18 732101 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.272 1.023 4.869 0.283 -0.005 19 732102 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.286 0.845 3.871 0.304 0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.248 1.062 6.951 0.259 -0.004 21 732112 1629 1983 355 1.000 0.226 0.635 3.823 0.243 -0.002 22 732121 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.409 1.016 4.268 0.445 0.002 23 732122 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.280 1.729 9.283 0.260 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 1.000 0.288 1.422 9.229 0.286 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.001 0.055 1.001 9.695 0.048 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 1.000 0.272 1.016 4.706 0.280 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.048 0.616 4.293 0.053 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 184 1.000 0.226 0.635 3.823 0.221 -0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 1.000 0.250 0.832 4.423 0.253 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 1.000 0.298 1.448 8.716 0.306 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.003 0.434 4.545 45.069 0.445 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.184 0.117 0.007 0.600 3.459 -0.097 0.573 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.097 SERIES 732101 AND 732121 226 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.573 SERIES 732041 AND 732091 289 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.421 0.107 0.187 0.225 0.180 0.217 0.236 0.220 0.159 0.203 SDEV 0.000 0.156 0.159 0.177 0.155 0.165 0.178 0.160 0.160 0.169 SERR 0.000 0.090 0.035 0.024 0.019 0.014 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.732 0.470 0.712 0.793 0.780 0.834 0.858 0.854 0.807 0.854 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.214 0.144 0.097 0.123 0.170 SDEV 0.186 0.189 0.187 0.188 0.180 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.862 0.795 0.712 0.763 0.825 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.983 0.175 0.812 5.244 0.185 0.058 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.262 0.147 0.065 175 261 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 0.92 1.00 1.12 2.04 29.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.058 -0.047 -0.034 -0.019 0.028 0.016 -0.032 0.074 0.071 -0.059 PACF 0.058 -0.051 -0.028 -0.018 0.028 0.010 -0.032 0.081 0.062 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.001 0.002 -0.020 0.026 0.021 -0.036 0.067 0.064 -0.053 PACF -0.001 -0.001 0.002 -0.020 0.026 0.021 -0.036 0.067 0.066 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.981 0.198 0.809 5.142 0.157 0.450 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.449 0.276 0.213 0.128 0.112 0.076 0.031 0.074 0.055 -0.043 PACF 0.449 0.093 0.074 -0.010 0.039 -0.005 -0.025 0.067 0.000 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.096 0.113 0.119 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.219 0.403 0.068 0.073 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES