RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA556W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA556W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 732 1 Lone Lake WIDTH_RING PICO - 732 2 United States of America lodgepole pine 2850 3710-11828 1548 1983 - 732 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 732011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1929 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 732032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1858 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 732082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1839 1839 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 732111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 0.842 0.588 1.084 3.385 0.263 0.896 2 732012 1583 1983 401 0.763 0.336 0.992 3.721 0.219 0.792 3 732021 1682 1983 302 1.183 0.617 1.357 4.690 0.201 0.851 4 732022 1679 1983 305 1.068 0.760 1.042 3.200 0.195 0.921 5 732032 1603 1983 381 0.813 0.436 1.085 4.934 0.239 0.825 6 732041 1695 1983 289 0.835 0.487 1.199 4.346 0.180 0.908 7 732042 1682 1983 302 0.760 0.417 1.193 3.964 0.213 0.883 8 732051 1797 1983 187 0.936 0.263 -0.022 2.988 0.218 0.621 9 732052 1759 1983 225 1.106 0.346 0.787 4.389 0.200 0.701 10 732061 1548 1980 433 0.629 0.414 2.378 11.531 0.245 0.849 11 732062 1566 1983 418 0.587 0.338 1.802 7.371 0.217 0.838 12 732071 1660 1983 324 0.644 0.288 0.872 3.854 0.228 0.823 13 732072 1711 1983 273 0.524 0.221 0.921 3.966 0.238 0.766 14 732081 1633 1983 351 0.925 0.504 2.056 8.338 0.207 0.854 15 732082 1608 1983 376 0.878 0.724 2.407 8.635 0.245 0.906 16 732091 1691 1983 293 0.693 0.349 1.903 8.550 0.231 0.727 17 732092 1800 1983 184 0.550 0.279 1.636 6.010 0.222 0.793 18 732101 1630 1983 354 0.578 0.423 1.547 5.413 0.248 0.893 19 732102 1620 1983 364 0.606 0.499 1.930 7.457 0.259 0.908 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 0.621 0.398 1.331 5.133 0.228 0.856 21 732112 1629 1983 355 0.688 0.486 1.514 5.296 0.206 0.903 22 732121 1758 1983 226 1.028 0.306 1.094 4.856 0.196 0.633 23 732122 1736 1983 248 0.769 0.234 0.317 3.221 0.210 0.570 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1548 TO 1983 436 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 0.784 0.422 1.323 5.446 0.222 0.814 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.189 0.146 0.596 2.206 0.022 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 0.763 0.414 1.199 4.856 0.219 0.849 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.277 0.172 0.702 2.781 0.033 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.524 0.221 -0.022 2.988 0.180 0.570 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 0.625 0.321 1.017 3.909 0.206 0.779 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 0.902 0.493 1.719 6.691 0.239 0.895 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.183 0.760 2.407 11.531 0.263 0.921 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.495 0.251 0.016 -0.359 2.302 -0.136 0.931 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.136 SERIES 732092 AND 732111 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.931 SERIES 732111 AND 732112 355 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.848 0.381 0.274 0.226 0.308 0.403 0.511 0.500 0.397 0.443 SDEV 0.000 0.085 0.303 0.341 0.232 0.187 0.173 0.259 0.199 0.192 SERR 0.000 0.049 0.066 0.046 0.029 0.016 0.014 0.020 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.955 0.819 0.802 0.794 0.878 0.924 0.953 0.954 0.936 0.948 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.430 0.412 0.341 0.437 0.454 SDEV 0.234 0.194 0.248 0.206 0.207 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.016 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.945 0.941 0.923 0.947 0.950 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.849 0.411 1.548 6.753 0.171 0.856 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.308 0.137 0.194 228 208 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.81 1.00 1.17 1.98 22.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 324. 82. 184. 281. 362. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.854 0.780 0.771 0.746 0.731 0.687 0.685 0.679 0.635 0.581 PACF 0.854 0.189 0.264 0.084 0.114 -0.061 0.135 0.030 -0.065 -0.138 95% C.L. 0.096 0.150 0.184 0.211 0.234 0.254 0.271 0.286 0.301 0.313 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.765 0.603 -0.021 0.218 0.015 0.116 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 732011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00410546 1.54667342 2 732012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00123716 1.01213491 3 732021 1 0.90908837 0.01319847 0.00000000 0.96097833 4 732022 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 732032 1 0.72507280 0.00737367 0.00000000 0.57026917 6 732041 1 1.71335983 0.00863825 0.00000000 0.20806314 7 732042 1 1.29077756 0.00967019 0.00000000 0.34386218 8 732051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00156170 1.08321714 9 732052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00119452 0.97106349 10 732061 1 1.42714190 0.01858855 0.00000000 0.45291996 11 732062 1 1.07846308 0.01028211 0.00000000 0.34066927 12 732071 1 0.77613181 0.01544550 0.00000000 0.49094111 13 732072 1 0.55598378 0.02848196 0.00000000 0.45382977 14 732081 1 1.81192124 0.01516103 0.00000000 0.58882141 15 732082 1 2.69874787 0.01760644 0.00000000 0.47382972 16 732091 1 0.75262988 0.01414203 0.00000000 0.51530528 17 732092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00227598 0.33919993 18 732101 1 1.54101741 0.01184595 0.00000000 0.21811479 19 732102 1 1.80522466 0.01233306 0.00000000 0.21058336 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 732111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00318025 1.19545031 21 732112 1 1.74785137 0.01018714 0.00000000 0.21984899 22 732121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060707 1.09717643 23 732122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001943 0.76641178 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 1.113 0.866 3.760 21.946 0.265 0.793 2 732012 1583 1983 401 0.999 0.388 0.948 3.875 0.218 0.733 3 732021 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.495 1.584 5.535 0.200 0.833 4 732022 1679 1983 305 0.996 0.302 0.505 3.301 0.194 0.695 5 732032 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.505 1.260 6.110 0.240 0.798 6 732041 1695 1983 289 1.002 0.263 0.956 4.638 0.180 0.589 7 732042 1682 1983 302 1.002 0.334 0.593 2.996 0.212 0.663 8 732051 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.272 0.033 2.914 0.217 0.567 9 732052 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.301 0.490 3.306 0.199 0.680 10 732061 1548 1980 433 1.002 0.427 0.391 2.753 0.244 0.730 11 732062 1566 1983 418 0.999 0.316 0.287 2.754 0.216 0.643 12 732071 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.346 0.318 3.333 0.227 0.709 13 732072 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.352 0.318 2.813 0.237 0.668 14 732081 1633 1983 351 0.999 0.236 0.409 2.756 0.206 0.396 15 732082 1608 1983 376 1.004 0.337 0.832 4.259 0.246 0.543 16 732091 1691 1983 293 1.000 0.415 1.837 8.582 0.230 0.636 17 732092 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.414 1.067 4.145 0.221 0.739 18 732101 1630 1983 354 0.996 0.308 1.215 5.817 0.247 0.474 19 732102 1620 1983 364 1.005 0.309 0.554 3.026 0.258 0.443 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 1.111 0.701 4.676 29.447 0.229 0.800 21 732112 1629 1983 355 0.997 0.267 0.272 3.272 0.205 0.543 22 732121 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.293 1.066 4.773 0.195 0.621 23 732122 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.305 0.317 3.215 0.210 0.568 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 1.010 0.381 1.030 5.894 0.222 0.646 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.032 0.147 1.113 6.505 0.022 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 1.000 0.334 0.593 3.333 0.218 0.663 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.002 0.113 0.786 2.143 0.033 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.996 0.236 0.033 2.753 0.180 0.396 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 0.999 0.302 0.355 3.011 0.206 0.567 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 1.002 0.415 1.141 5.154 0.239 0.731 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.113 0.866 4.676 29.447 0.265 0.833 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 732011 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 732012 -67 268 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 732021 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 732022 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 732032 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 732041 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 732042 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 732051 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 732052 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 732061 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 732062 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 732071 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 732072 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 732081 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 732082 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 732091 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 732092 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 732101 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 732102 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 732111 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 732112 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 732121 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 732122 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 0.987 0.432 0.646 3.402 0.264 0.724 2 732012 1583 1983 401 0.991 0.317 0.509 3.020 0.218 0.625 3 732021 1682 1983 302 0.988 0.451 1.692 6.351 0.200 0.805 4 732022 1679 1983 305 0.997 0.293 0.569 3.437 0.194 0.675 5 732032 1603 1983 381 0.976 0.382 1.095 5.767 0.240 0.692 6 732041 1695 1983 289 0.999 0.249 0.696 3.866 0.180 0.556 7 732042 1682 1983 302 0.997 0.316 0.528 2.926 0.212 0.628 8 732051 1797 1983 187 0.998 0.263 -0.020 2.833 0.217 0.543 9 732052 1759 1983 225 0.997 0.273 0.143 2.880 0.199 0.633 10 732061 1548 1980 433 0.989 0.342 0.572 3.593 0.245 0.605 11 732062 1566 1983 418 0.997 0.285 0.175 2.690 0.216 0.574 12 732071 1660 1983 324 0.997 0.329 0.106 3.115 0.227 0.682 13 732072 1711 1983 273 0.997 0.340 0.259 2.761 0.237 0.647 14 732081 1633 1983 351 0.999 0.229 0.418 2.800 0.206 0.361 15 732082 1608 1983 376 0.995 0.307 0.556 3.465 0.245 0.467 16 732091 1691 1983 293 0.996 0.389 1.596 7.549 0.230 0.624 17 732092 1800 1983 184 0.989 0.359 0.718 3.195 0.221 0.680 18 732101 1630 1983 354 0.997 0.283 0.849 4.554 0.247 0.405 19 732102 1620 1983 364 0.997 0.276 0.707 4.297 0.258 0.294 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 0.996 0.337 1.000 5.293 0.229 0.634 21 732112 1629 1983 355 0.998 0.263 0.469 3.763 0.205 0.509 22 732121 1758 1983 226 0.998 0.265 0.942 4.021 0.195 0.550 23 732122 1736 1983 248 0.994 0.274 0.387 3.035 0.210 0.471 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 0.994 0.315 0.635 3.853 0.222 0.582 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.005 0.058 0.428 1.276 0.022 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 0.997 0.307 0.569 3.437 0.218 0.624 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.005 0.067 0.381 1.186 0.033 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 184 0.976 0.229 -0.020 2.690 0.180 0.294 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 0.992 0.273 0.402 2.973 0.206 0.526 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 0.997 0.341 0.784 4.159 0.239 0.661 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 0.999 0.451 1.692 7.549 0.264 0.805 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.416 0.145 0.009 -0.124 2.710 0.019 0.757 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.019 SERIES 732061 AND 732082 373 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.757 SERIES 732071 AND 732072 273 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.779 0.440 0.312 0.288 0.244 0.431 0.463 0.408 0.374 0.424 SDEV 0.000 0.050 0.201 0.250 0.210 0.184 0.167 0.218 0.196 0.193 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.044 0.034 0.026 0.016 0.013 0.017 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.930 0.853 0.830 0.842 0.840 0.932 0.944 0.935 0.929 0.944 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.463 0.424 0.392 0.437 0.459 SDEV 0.206 0.184 0.220 0.194 0.194 SERR 0.013 0.012 0.014 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.952 0.944 0.937 0.947 0.951 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.991 0.237 0.521 3.477 0.171 0.596 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.271 0.106 0.109 126 310 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.51 1.01 1.08 1.60 9.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.594 0.391 0.327 0.290 0.294 0.185 0.135 0.137 0.023 -0.071 PACF 0.594 0.059 0.113 0.069 0.105 -0.097 0.009 0.034 -0.154 -0.113 95% C.L. 0.096 0.125 0.136 0.143 0.148 0.153 0.156 0.157 0.158 0.158 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.366 0.603 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.604 0.422 0.344 0.315 0.343 0.248 0.173 0.154 0.019 -0.045 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.604 2 0.551 0.089 3 0.543 0.038 0.092 4 0.534 0.035 0.042 0.092 5 0.521 0.029 0.037 0.015 0.144 6 0.532 0.030 0.040 0.017 0.183 -0.076 7 0.529 0.035 0.040 0.019 0.184 -0.059 -0.031 8 0.530 0.037 0.036 0.018 0.183 -0.060 -0.045 0.025 9 0.535 0.028 0.024 0.054 0.186 -0.053 -0.037 0.129 -0.196 10 0.519 0.039 0.021 0.050 0.202 -0.048 -0.035 0.131 -0.152 -0.082 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3834.90 3638.71 3637.27 3635.58 3633.88 3626.80 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3626.30 3627.87 3629.60 3614.49 3613.57 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 6 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.532 0.030 0.040 0.017 0.183 -0.076 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 39.71 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 165.86 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 6) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.532 0.313 0.222 0.166 0.299 0.200 0.143 0.114 0.091 0.1034 0.079 0.062 0.051 0.042 0.040 0.032 0.026 0.022 0.018 0.0160 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0027 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 732011 6 0.563 0.650 0.051 0.024 0.013 0.093 -0.020 2 732012 6 0.421 0.533 0.100 0.095 -0.039 0.035 -0.011 3 732021 6 0.664 0.811 -0.034 -0.069 0.100 0.061 -0.025 4 732022 6 0.477 0.674 -0.076 0.014 0.059 -0.002 0.102 5 732032 6 0.496 0.649 0.024 -0.018 0.009 0.142 -0.041 6 732041 6 0.375 0.496 -0.024 0.222 -0.053 0.176 -0.117 7 732042 6 0.439 0.667 -0.166 0.088 0.062 0.128 -0.049 8 732051 6 0.390 0.670 -0.231 0.153 -0.152 0.376 -0.229 9 732052 6 0.442 0.611 -0.046 0.006 0.051 0.199 -0.076 10 732061 6 0.404 0.469 0.069 0.102 0.022 0.062 0.044 11 732062 6 0.364 0.466 0.080 0.068 0.062 0.086 -0.052 12 732071 6 0.493 0.653 -0.025 0.012 0.108 -0.010 0.035 13 732072 6 0.473 0.470 0.136 0.079 0.094 0.031 -0.020 14 732081 6 0.179 0.277 0.172 -0.014 0.063 0.101 -0.023 15 732082 6 0.355 0.245 0.272 0.003 0.172 0.113 -0.044 16 732091 6 0.435 0.559 0.083 0.040 0.021 0.075 -0.061 17 732092 6 0.504 0.532 0.148 0.077 -0.038 0.156 -0.104 18 732101 6 0.294 0.218 0.203 0.058 -0.016 0.146 0.151 19 732102 6 0.105 0.261 0.052 0.071 0.003 0.086 -0.020 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 732111 6 0.479 0.459 0.146 0.067 0.061 0.075 0.000 21 732112 6 0.332 0.388 0.105 0.085 0.011 0.176 -0.042 22 732121 6 0.324 0.572 0.029 -0.154 0.109 0.041 -0.041 23 732122 6 0.264 0.389 0.172 -0.082 0.097 0.026 0.037 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 6 0.403 0.509 0.054 0.040 0.036 0.103 -0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 0.159 0.118 0.079 0.069 0.083 0.075 MEDIAN 6 0.421 0.532 0.069 0.058 0.051 0.086 -0.025 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.135 0.226 0.165 0.077 0.073 0.093 0.045 MINIMUM VALUE 6 0.105 0.218 -0.231 -0.154 -0.152 -0.010 -0.229 LOWER HINGE 6 0.343 0.424 -0.024 0.004 0.006 0.051 -0.050 UPPER HINGE 6 0.478 0.650 0.141 0.082 0.079 0.144 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 6 0.664 0.811 0.272 0.222 0.172 0.376 0.151 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 732011 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.286 0.410 4.058 0.311 0.016 2 732012 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.241 0.298 3.631 0.265 0.007 3 732021 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.260 1.117 9.058 0.271 0.005 4 732022 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.212 0.242 3.042 0.245 0.007 5 732032 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.271 0.760 4.665 0.293 0.002 6 732041 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.197 0.468 3.659 0.217 0.005 7 732042 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.236 0.576 3.406 0.257 0.006 8 732051 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.205 0.099 3.413 0.235 0.008 9 732052 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.204 -0.126 2.969 0.238 0.001 10 732061 1548 1980 433 1.000 0.264 0.517 4.436 0.292 -0.002 11 732062 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.227 0.117 3.301 0.261 -0.002 12 732071 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.234 0.018 2.722 0.268 0.009 13 732072 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.247 -0.086 3.088 0.285 0.005 14 732081 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.208 0.167 2.980 0.237 -0.001 15 732082 1608 1983 376 1.000 0.246 0.453 3.844 0.276 0.001 16 732091 1691 1983 293 1.000 0.292 1.198 6.065 0.298 0.014 17 732092 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.254 0.974 4.568 0.270 -0.005 18 732101 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.238 0.534 3.578 0.266 0.016 19 732102 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.261 0.758 4.709 0.287 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 732111 1623 1983 361 1.000 0.244 0.366 3.666 0.273 0.025 21 732112 1629 1983 355 1.000 0.215 0.428 3.334 0.234 0.011 22 732121 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.217 0.395 3.372 0.239 0.001 23 732122 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.234 0.575 3.542 0.249 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 317 1.000 0.239 0.446 3.961 0.264 0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.000 0.026 0.351 1.341 0.024 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 1.000 0.238 0.428 3.578 0.266 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.041 0.371 0.930 0.039 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 184 1.000 0.197 -0.126 2.722 0.217 -0.005 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 281 1.000 0.216 0.204 3.317 0.242 0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 362 1.000 0.257 0.575 4.247 0.281 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.292 1.198 9.058 0.311 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.417 0.124 0.008 -0.343 3.258 0.036 0.756 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.036 SERIES 732061 AND 732121 223 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.756 SERIES 732071 AND 732072 273 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.48 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. CORR 1. 3. 21. 55. 66. 136. 153. 171. 210. 253. RBAR 0.817 0.591 0.399 0.350 0.298 0.414 0.491 0.451 0.439 0.473 SDEV 0.000 0.078 0.137 0.151 0.165 0.146 0.137 0.167 0.176 0.174 SERR 0.000 0.045 0.030 0.020 0.020 0.013 0.011 0.013 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.944 0.914 0.877 0.877 0.873 0.927 0.949 0.944 0.945 0.954 NSS 3.8 7.4 10.8 13.2 16.2 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.0 YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.425 0.353 0.448 0.490 0.428 SDEV 0.157 0.164 0.172 0.135 0.147 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.944 0.926 0.949 0.957 0.945 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.998 0.183 0.211 3.619 0.203 0.070 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.154 0.058 0.103 133 303 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.47 1.00 1.06 1.53 7.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.070 -0.044 -0.001 -0.005 0.066 -0.048 0.016 0.122 -0.032 -0.094 PACF 0.070 -0.049 0.006 -0.007 0.067 -0.059 0.031 0.115 -0.048 -0.086 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.071 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.005 -0.011 -0.002 0.001 0.006 0.026 0.111 -0.036 -0.087 PACF 0.001 0.005 -0.011 -0.002 0.001 0.006 0.026 0.111 -0.037 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.001 0.001 0.005 -0.011 -0.002 0.001 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1548 1983 436 0.992 0.229 0.606 3.776 0.168 0.578 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.577 0.388 0.305 0.257 0.279 0.183 0.146 0.135 0.015 -0.066 PACF 0.577 0.082 0.079 0.055 0.127 -0.078 0.019 0.024 -0.152 -0.105 95% C.L. 0.096 0.124 0.134 0.141 0.145 0.150 0.152 0.153 0.154 0.154 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.353 0.529 0.042 0.079 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.75 MINUTES