RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA557E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA557E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 760 1 Lassen National-Park WIDTH_EARLY TSME - 760 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 2550 4027-12131 1525 1983 760 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 760021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1862 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 760091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1888 1888 / 1918 1918 / 1921 1921 / 1959 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 760011 1562 1983 422 0.485 0.203 0.635 3.834 0.327 0.538 2 760012 1565 1983 419 0.439 0.188 0.548 3.399 0.346 0.516 3 760021 1624 1983 360 0.404 0.257 1.076 3.669 0.330 0.786 4 760022 1597 1983 387 0.413 0.237 1.531 6.492 0.388 0.565 5 760031 1564 1983 420 0.400 0.210 0.955 3.375 0.300 0.756 6 760032 1579 1982 404 0.307 0.129 0.650 3.872 0.366 0.424 7 760041 1615 1983 369 0.298 0.123 0.596 3.498 0.374 0.459 8 760042 1662 1983 322 0.443 0.168 0.265 2.629 0.274 0.669 9 760051 1581 1983 403 0.447 0.181 0.627 3.893 0.317 0.541 10 760052 1583 1983 401 0.437 0.176 1.077 4.952 0.295 0.560 11 760061 1579 1983 405 0.404 0.161 0.942 3.813 0.220 0.760 12 760062 1604 1983 380 0.477 0.141 0.484 3.433 0.187 0.694 13 760071 1644 1983 340 0.713 0.220 0.422 2.925 0.188 0.730 14 760072 1630 1983 354 0.712 0.158 0.168 3.423 0.196 0.440 15 760081 1625 1983 359 0.498 0.191 0.730 3.831 0.283 0.603 16 760082 1728 1983 256 0.523 0.192 0.918 3.718 0.234 0.704 17 760091 1525 1980 456 0.464 0.333 0.733 2.706 0.318 0.907 18 760092 1525 1983 459 0.483 0.288 1.068 4.111 0.258 0.867 19 760111 1582 1983 402 0.396 0.173 0.656 3.615 0.334 0.608 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 760112 1561 1983 423 0.457 0.164 0.565 3.404 0.250 0.643 21 760121 1651 1983 333 0.585 0.220 0.643 3.146 0.262 0.657 22 760122 1636 1983 348 0.504 0.189 0.368 2.670 0.269 0.653 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1525 TO 1983 459 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 383 0.468 0.195 0.712 3.655 0.287 0.640 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.102 0.050 0.313 0.822 0.059 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 394 0.452 0.188 0.647 3.557 0.289 0.648 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 65 0.093 0.056 0.393 0.459 0.080 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 256 0.298 0.123 0.168 2.629 0.187 0.424 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 354 0.404 0.164 0.548 3.375 0.250 0.541 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 419 0.498 0.220 0.942 3.834 0.330 0.730 MAXIMUM VALUE 459 0.713 0.333 1.531 6.492 0.388 0.907 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.432 0.180 0.012 -0.370 2.981 -0.104 0.826 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.104 SERIES 760042 AND 760061 322 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.826 SERIES 760011 AND 760012 419 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. CORR 1. 1. 28. 78. 136. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.048 0.102 0.442 0.232 0.305 0.384 0.381 0.397 0.352 0.386 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.162 0.281 0.259 0.229 0.212 0.203 0.226 0.196 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.031 0.032 0.022 0.017 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.130 0.475 0.909 0.830 0.896 0.929 0.928 0.934 0.923 0.933 NSS 3.0 8.0 12.6 16.2 19.5 20.9 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.457 0.443 0.475 0.430 0.419 0.414 0.321 SDEV 0.220 0.203 0.181 0.197 0.177 0.172 0.227 SERR 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.015 EPS 0.949 0.946 0.952 0.943 0.941 0.940 0.912 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1525 1983 459 0.503 0.193 1.182 4.711 0.212 0.745 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.450 0.165 0.099 155 304 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.47 1.00 1.08 1.55 18.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.65 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 394. 65. 256. 354. 419. 459. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.743 0.719 0.703 0.672 0.650 0.649 0.620 0.650 0.663 0.642 PACF 0.743 0.372 0.235 0.115 0.075 0.107 0.028 0.156 0.146 0.044 95% C.L. 0.093 0.135 0.165 0.190 0.209 0.226 0.242 0.255 0.269 0.283 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.671 0.296 0.189 0.158 0.088 0.072 0.121 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 760011 1 0.44229931 0.00679520 0.00000000 0.33979899 2 760012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078595 0.60390389 3 760021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00185860 0.73876679 4 760022 1 0.60788643 0.01352418 0.00000000 0.29789761 5 760031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121176 0.65490818 6 760032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038716 0.38545391 7 760041 1 0.16012876 0.02287960 0.00000000 0.27878806 8 760042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00119775 0.63632435 9 760051 1 0.26669392 0.01745399 0.00000000 0.40972042 10 760052 1 0.44848394 0.02068831 0.00000000 0.38371998 11 760061 1 0.54465246 0.03421072 0.00000000 0.36491537 12 760062 1 0.38949344 0.03788107 0.00000000 0.45000398 13 760071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00148948 0.96742737 14 760072 1 0.20258915 0.00440012 0.00000000 0.60970467 15 760081 1 0.44369048 0.02034591 0.00000000 0.43768898 16 760082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028355 0.55991268 17 760091 -67 305 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 760092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00178314 0.89297730 19 760111 1 0.49167135 0.00877193 0.00000000 0.26102430 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 760112 1 0.42464364 0.00457531 0.00000000 0.27006862 21 760121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126317 0.79623502 22 760122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070428 0.62686229 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 760011 1562 1983 422 1.000 0.347 0.059 2.860 0.327 0.369 2 760012 1565 1983 419 1.001 0.364 0.141 2.993 0.345 0.348 3 760021 1624 1983 360 1.046 0.470 1.190 5.886 0.331 0.507 4 760022 1597 1983 387 1.000 0.435 0.616 3.695 0.387 0.382 5 760031 1564 1983 420 1.011 0.361 0.438 3.260 0.299 0.477 6 760032 1579 1982 404 0.999 0.391 0.571 3.442 0.365 0.366 7 760041 1615 1983 369 1.000 0.405 0.626 3.665 0.373 0.437 8 760042 1662 1983 322 0.999 0.297 0.280 3.356 0.273 0.406 9 760051 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.394 0.826 5.121 0.316 0.507 10 760052 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.340 0.703 4.005 0.295 0.428 11 760061 1579 1983 405 0.999 0.332 0.528 3.218 0.219 0.690 12 760062 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.264 0.287 3.927 0.186 0.627 13 760071 1644 1983 340 0.999 0.224 0.143 2.781 0.187 0.475 14 760072 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.212 0.068 3.415 0.196 0.382 15 760081 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.331 0.322 3.018 0.282 0.482 16 760082 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.363 0.900 3.607 0.234 0.694 17 760091 1525 1980 456 1.008 0.363 1.418 10.366 0.323 0.248 18 760092 1525 1983 459 1.058 0.495 3.643 26.378 0.258 0.664 19 760111 1582 1983 402 1.000 0.320 0.012 3.584 0.333 0.212 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 760112 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.279 -0.147 3.114 0.249 0.404 21 760121 1651 1983 333 1.001 0.326 0.833 4.137 0.262 0.481 22 760122 1636 1983 348 0.998 0.343 0.292 2.886 0.268 0.579 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 383 1.005 0.348 0.625 4.942 0.287 0.462 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.015 0.070 0.780 5.053 0.060 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 394 1.000 0.345 0.483 3.513 0.288 0.456 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 65 0.001 0.071 0.682 0.890 0.082 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 256 0.998 0.212 -0.147 2.781 0.186 0.212 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 354 1.000 0.320 0.143 3.114 0.249 0.382 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 419 1.001 0.391 0.826 4.005 0.331 0.507 MAXIMUM VALUE 459 1.058 0.495 3.643 26.378 0.387 0.694 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 760011 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 760012 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 760021 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 760022 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 760031 -67 281 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 760032 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 760041 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 760042 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 760051 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 760052 -67 268 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 760061 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 760062 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 760071 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 760072 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 760081 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 760082 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 760091 -67 305 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 760092 -67 307 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 760111 -67 269 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 760112 -67 283 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 760121 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 760122 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 760011 1562 1983 422 0.998 0.333 0.007 2.954 0.327 0.310 2 760012 1565 1983 419 0.998 0.358 0.125 2.950 0.345 0.330 3 760021 1624 1983 360 0.995 0.377 0.569 3.917 0.331 0.424 4 760022 1597 1983 387 0.996 0.420 0.716 4.103 0.387 0.332 5 760031 1564 1983 420 0.997 0.326 0.116 2.675 0.299 0.388 6 760032 1579 1982 404 0.993 0.359 0.448 3.583 0.366 0.268 7 760041 1615 1983 369 0.999 0.400 0.572 3.510 0.373 0.429 8 760042 1662 1983 322 0.998 0.290 0.291 3.444 0.273 0.378 9 760051 1581 1983 403 0.995 0.375 0.755 4.379 0.316 0.468 10 760052 1583 1983 401 0.998 0.329 0.598 3.740 0.295 0.402 11 760061 1579 1983 405 0.997 0.297 0.211 2.591 0.219 0.602 12 760062 1604 1983 380 0.998 0.242 -0.033 3.725 0.186 0.554 13 760071 1644 1983 340 0.999 0.218 0.186 2.929 0.187 0.449 14 760072 1630 1983 354 0.999 0.207 0.046 3.522 0.196 0.353 15 760081 1625 1983 359 0.998 0.319 0.228 3.008 0.282 0.447 16 760082 1728 1983 256 0.995 0.289 0.254 2.778 0.234 0.518 17 760091 1525 1980 456 0.999 0.335 0.588 5.855 0.323 0.227 18 760092 1525 1983 459 0.996 0.328 1.049 6.908 0.258 0.507 19 760111 1582 1983 402 0.997 0.305 -0.132 3.517 0.333 0.118 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 760112 1561 1983 423 0.999 0.274 -0.167 3.214 0.249 0.384 21 760121 1651 1983 333 0.995 0.284 0.460 3.281 0.262 0.348 22 760122 1636 1983 348 0.996 0.315 0.193 2.886 0.268 0.474 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 383 0.997 0.317 0.322 3.612 0.287 0.396 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.002 0.054 0.314 1.024 0.060 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 394 0.998 0.322 0.241 3.477 0.288 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 65 0.003 0.069 0.456 0.790 0.082 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 256 0.993 0.207 -0.167 2.591 0.186 0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 354 0.996 0.289 0.116 2.950 0.249 0.332 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 419 0.998 0.358 0.572 3.740 0.331 0.468 MAXIMUM VALUE 459 0.999 0.420 1.049 6.908 0.387 0.602 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.377 0.131 0.009 0.281 3.482 0.007 0.813 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.007 SERIES 760051 AND 760091 400 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.813 SERIES 760011 AND 760012 419 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. CORR 1. 1. 28. 78. 136. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.110 0.102 0.337 0.279 0.324 0.363 0.383 0.394 0.360 0.410 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.227 0.216 0.221 0.239 0.212 0.192 0.210 0.181 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.043 0.024 0.019 0.017 0.015 0.013 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.267 0.474 0.865 0.862 0.903 0.922 0.929 0.933 0.925 0.939 NSS 3.0 8.0 12.6 16.2 19.5 20.9 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.457 0.472 0.475 0.431 0.410 0.424 0.346 SDEV 0.213 0.190 0.183 0.189 0.177 0.163 0.211 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.949 0.952 0.952 0.943 0.939 0.942 0.921 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1525 1983 459 0.986 0.200 -0.115 3.244 0.210 0.168 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.230 0.092 0.155 132 327 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.53 1.00 1.07 1.60 188.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.53 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.168 0.127 0.108 0.097 0.033 0.057 -0.049 -0.033 0.103 0.045 PACF 0.168 0.102 0.074 0.060 -0.008 0.032 -0.080 -0.032 0.123 0.026 95% C.L. 0.093 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.048 0.143 0.094 0.075 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.178 0.145 0.088 0.109 0.024 0.077 -0.045 -0.050 0.091 0.047 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.178 2 0.157 0.117 3 0.152 0.109 0.047 4 0.148 0.101 0.035 0.075 5 0.150 0.102 0.038 0.078 -0.021 6 0.151 0.098 0.036 0.072 -0.029 0.054 7 0.155 0.095 0.041 0.075 -0.021 0.066 -0.079 8 0.151 0.099 0.040 0.079 -0.019 0.072 -0.071 -0.056 9 0.158 0.108 0.031 0.082 -0.028 0.067 -0.083 -0.074 0.122 10 0.155 0.110 0.033 0.080 -0.028 0.065 -0.084 -0.077 0.118 0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4076.98 4064.16 4059.88 4060.87 4060.29 4062.10 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4062.74 4061.84 4062.40 4057.50 4059.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.157 0.117 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.49 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.71 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.157 0.141 0.041 0.023 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 760011 2 0.114 0.273 0.122 2 760012 2 0.116 0.317 0.040 3 760021 2 0.188 0.386 0.090 4 760022 2 0.161 0.256 0.231 5 760031 2 0.171 0.347 0.108 6 760032 2 0.111 0.226 0.176 7 760041 2 0.221 0.342 0.206 8 760042 2 0.182 0.300 0.205 9 760051 2 0.245 0.400 0.151 10 760052 2 0.191 0.344 0.145 11 760061 2 0.379 0.538 0.107 12 760062 2 0.325 0.497 0.107 13 760071 2 0.245 0.366 0.191 14 760072 2 0.178 0.301 0.150 15 760081 2 0.208 0.419 0.064 16 760082 2 0.292 0.472 0.096 17 760091 2 0.080 0.210 0.080 18 760092 2 0.298 0.407 0.198 19 760111 2 0.053 0.095 0.194 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 760112 2 0.171 0.326 0.158 21 760121 2 0.142 0.299 0.145 22 760122 2 0.249 0.417 0.133 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.196 0.343 0.141 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.081 0.100 0.051 MEDIAN 2 0.185 0.343 0.145 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.104 0.108 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.053 0.095 0.040 LOWER HINGE 2 0.142 0.299 0.107 UPPER HINGE 2 0.245 0.407 0.191 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.379 0.538 0.231 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 760011 1562 1983 422 1.000 0.314 0.019 3.110 0.363 -0.006 2 760012 1565 1983 419 1.000 0.337 0.217 3.173 0.384 -0.003 3 760021 1624 1983 360 1.000 0.340 0.565 4.067 0.377 -0.005 4 760022 1597 1983 387 1.000 0.385 0.597 4.361 0.421 0.014 5 760031 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.299 0.229 3.026 0.341 -0.011 6 760032 1579 1982 404 1.000 0.339 0.442 3.534 0.391 -0.022 7 760041 1615 1983 369 1.000 0.353 0.524 3.210 0.410 -0.008 8 760042 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.263 0.191 3.188 0.301 -0.014 9 760051 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.327 0.423 3.648 0.371 -0.009 10 760052 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.298 0.263 3.328 0.347 -0.016 11 760061 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.236 0.187 3.485 0.271 -0.012 12 760062 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.200 0.022 4.289 0.224 -0.007 13 760071 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.191 0.247 3.232 0.219 -0.025 14 760072 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.192 0.046 3.469 0.228 -0.030 15 760081 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.284 0.118 2.949 0.327 -0.005 16 760082 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.244 0.154 3.204 0.279 -0.016 17 760091 1525 1980 456 1.000 0.325 0.536 5.833 0.352 -0.012 18 760092 1525 1983 459 1.000 0.277 0.839 7.155 0.307 -0.025 19 760111 1582 1983 402 1.000 0.297 -0.170 3.362 0.340 -0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 760112 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.249 -0.065 3.464 0.278 0.000 21 760121 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.263 0.083 3.397 0.300 -0.001 22 760122 1636 1983 348 1.001 0.271 -0.017 3.212 0.313 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 383 1.000 0.286 0.248 3.713 0.325 -0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.053 0.253 0.995 0.058 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 394 1.000 0.290 0.204 3.380 0.333 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 65 0.000 0.078 0.396 0.444 0.091 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 256 1.000 0.191 -0.170 2.949 0.219 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 354 1.000 0.249 0.046 3.204 0.279 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 419 1.000 0.327 0.442 3.648 0.371 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 459 1.001 0.385 0.839 7.155 0.421 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.454 0.130 0.009 -0.147 3.665 0.088 0.851 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.088 SERIES 760042 AND 760091 319 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.851 SERIES 760011 AND 760012 419 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. CORR 1. 1. 28. 78. 136. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.304 0.381 0.459 0.405 0.478 0.479 0.469 0.491 0.466 0.464 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.164 0.148 0.135 0.157 0.153 0.151 0.162 0.169 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.031 0.017 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.564 0.830 0.914 0.917 0.947 0.950 0.949 0.954 0.951 0.950 NSS 3.0 8.0 12.6 16.2 19.5 20.9 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.482 0.504 0.564 0.499 0.437 0.435 0.395 SDEV 0.168 0.165 0.170 0.185 0.184 0.165 0.189 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.953 0.957 0.966 0.956 0.945 0.944 0.935 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1525 1983 459 0.992 0.197 -0.076 3.206 0.242 -0.162 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.156 0.057 0.146 151 308 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.72 1.00 1.07 1.79 22.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.44 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.161 -0.080 0.020 0.050 -0.017 0.057 -0.083 -0.063 0.119 0.050 PACF -0.161 -0.109 -0.013 0.045 0.001 0.066 -0.066 -0.084 0.084 0.073 95% C.L. 0.093 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.038 -0.179 -0.111 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.001 -0.005 0.052 -0.002 0.039 -0.079 -0.046 0.111 0.065 PACF -0.002 0.001 -0.005 0.052 -0.002 0.039 -0.079 -0.050 0.113 0.062 95% C.L. 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.002 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1525 1983 459 0.993 0.198 -0.120 3.234 0.206 0.176 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.175 0.146 0.045 0.076 0.013 0.034 -0.059 -0.022 0.102 0.072 PACF 0.175 0.119 0.002 0.054 -0.013 0.018 -0.072 -0.013 0.130 0.044 95% C.L. 0.093 0.096 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.046 0.154 0.123 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.55 MINUTES