RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA557L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA557L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 760 1 Lassen National-Park WIDTH_LATE TSME - 760 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 2550 4027-12131 1525 1983 760 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 760021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1773 1777 / 1862 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 760022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1933 1937 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 760041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1854 1858 / 1900 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 760061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1810 1814 / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 760062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 760082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1746 1750 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 760091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1888 1888 / 1918 1918 / 1921 1921 / 1959 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 760092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1932 1936 / 1967 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 760122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 760011 1562 1983 422 0.127 0.060 2.133 9.141 0.236 0.659 2 760012 1565 1983 419 0.133 0.071 1.430 5.004 0.233 0.753 3 760021 1624 1983 360 0.106 0.072 3.011 17.489 0.261 0.657 4 760022 1597 1983 387 0.127 0.109 2.849 11.844 0.274 0.794 5 760031 1564 1983 420 0.132 0.084 2.191 8.511 0.237 0.741 6 760032 1579 1982 404 0.105 0.037 1.835 8.872 0.212 0.653 7 760041 1615 1983 369 0.091 0.023 0.243 3.932 0.220 0.431 8 760042 1662 1983 322 0.101 0.032 0.977 4.694 0.191 0.663 9 760051 1581 1983 403 0.128 0.065 2.074 9.142 0.219 0.739 10 760052 1583 1983 401 0.126 0.067 2.734 12.280 0.207 0.710 11 760061 1579 1983 405 0.103 0.047 2.739 11.562 0.176 0.780 12 760062 1604 1983 380 0.114 0.042 2.818 13.740 0.160 0.772 13 760071 1644 1983 340 0.159 0.093 2.298 8.977 0.218 0.819 14 760072 1630 1983 354 0.141 0.045 1.221 4.656 0.201 0.621 15 760081 1625 1983 359 0.158 0.070 1.159 6.975 0.181 0.764 16 760082 1728 1983 256 0.108 0.028 0.341 2.787 0.159 0.683 17 760091 1525 1980 456 0.121 0.101 1.970 6.753 0.214 0.889 18 760092 1525 1983 459 0.107 0.056 2.244 10.021 0.180 0.822 19 760111 1582 1983 402 0.128 0.044 0.364 2.834 0.190 0.708 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 760112 1561 1983 423 0.124 0.059 2.047 8.122 0.190 0.817 21 760121 1651 1983 333 0.145 0.089 3.392 19.846 0.228 0.634 22 760122 1636 1983 348 0.132 0.063 2.677 17.348 0.207 0.664 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1525 TO 1983 459 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 380 0.124 0.062 1.943 9.297 0.209 0.717 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.018 0.024 0.907 4.742 0.030 0.096 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 388 0.126 0.061 2.104 8.925 0.209 0.724 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 66 0.025 0.028 1.513 6.839 0.038 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 251 0.091 0.023 0.243 2.787 0.159 0.431 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 353 0.107 0.044 1.221 5.004 0.190 0.659 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 419 0.132 0.072 2.734 11.844 0.228 0.780 MAXIMUM VALUE 451 0.159 0.109 3.392 19.846 0.274 0.889 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.372 0.207 0.014 -0.154 2.268 -0.078 0.789 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.078 SERIES 760041 AND 760082 256 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.789 SERIES 760091 AND 760092 456 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. CORR 1. 1. 28. 78. 136. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.147 0.385 0.311 0.265 0.164 0.174 0.169 0.164 0.177 0.119 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.217 0.294 0.232 0.206 0.240 0.195 0.193 0.192 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.041 0.033 0.020 0.015 0.017 0.013 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.338 0.833 0.850 0.854 0.794 0.814 0.811 0.808 0.826 0.748 NSS 3.0 8.0 12.6 16.2 19.5 20.9 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.218 0.213 0.172 0.161 0.215 0.214 0.101 SDEV 0.186 0.191 0.206 0.182 0.163 0.172 0.224 SERR 0.012 0.013 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.015 EPS 0.859 0.856 0.821 0.808 0.858 0.857 0.713 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1525 1983 459 0.136 0.066 1.827 6.343 0.124 0.886 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.699 0.362 -0.005 255 204 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 1.39 1.00 1.18 2.57 39.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.59 0.87 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 394. 65. 256. 354. 419. 459. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.884 0.858 0.812 0.785 0.759 0.746 0.729 0.745 0.745 0.743 PACF 0.884 0.348 0.054 0.068 0.056 0.087 0.046 0.190 0.091 0.028 95% C.L. 0.093 0.149 0.188 0.216 0.240 0.260 0.278 0.294 0.310 0.325 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.844 0.442 0.290 0.144 0.078 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 760011 1 0.19232079 0.01303102 0.00000000 0.09219979 2 760012 1 0.21262975 0.00718604 0.00000000 0.06576436 3 760021 1 0.19209482 0.00613119 0.00000000 0.02879991 4 760022 1 0.36852062 0.01841176 0.00000000 0.07574718 5 760031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041113 0.21861438 6 760032 1 0.12615560 0.02164891 0.00000000 0.09053700 7 760041 1 0.02056041 0.02565887 0.00000000 0.08895862 8 760042 1 0.07634287 0.00675182 0.00000000 0.07025955 9 760051 1 0.17360729 0.01340851 0.00000000 0.09612373 10 760052 1 0.22737381 0.02259291 0.00000000 0.10072654 11 760061 1 0.22957231 0.03536057 0.00000000 0.08695241 12 760062 1 0.21992427 0.04743814 0.00000000 0.10201488 13 760071 1 0.31553665 0.01506293 0.00000000 0.09813192 14 760072 1 0.11688241 0.01938713 0.00000000 0.12380207 15 760081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039584 0.22966278 16 760082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014818 0.12714846 17 760091 1 0.34845483 0.00922780 0.00000000 0.03898206 18 760092 1 0.20360677 0.01292023 0.00000000 0.07223675 19 760111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017135 0.16281050 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 760112 1 0.20196857 0.01272042 0.00000000 0.08727445 21 760121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044811 0.21933898 22 760122 1 0.18948729 0.00330882 0.00000000 0.01951900 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 760011 1562 1983 422 1.000 0.257 0.549 4.522 0.236 0.279 2 760012 1565 1983 419 1.000 0.313 0.710 3.935 0.233 0.518 3 760021 1624 1983 360 1.002 0.381 1.790 8.967 0.262 0.437 4 760022 1597 1983 387 0.998 0.434 2.578 15.107 0.273 0.465 5 760031 1564 1983 420 1.007 0.433 1.949 7.728 0.237 0.591 6 760032 1579 1982 404 1.000 0.233 0.193 2.739 0.211 0.394 7 760041 1615 1983 369 1.000 0.252 0.269 4.074 0.218 0.431 8 760042 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.250 0.723 3.961 0.191 0.511 9 760051 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.387 2.324 11.789 0.218 0.623 10 760052 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.345 2.206 12.442 0.207 0.601 11 760061 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.219 0.705 3.616 0.175 0.433 12 760062 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.205 0.967 6.074 0.160 0.432 13 760071 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.272 1.258 5.754 0.218 0.432 14 760072 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.259 1.104 4.999 0.200 0.511 15 760081 1625 1983 359 0.992 0.325 0.761 4.940 0.181 0.653 16 760082 1728 1983 256 0.999 0.236 0.562 3.035 0.158 0.622 17 760091 1525 1980 456 1.005 0.294 0.688 4.597 0.219 0.454 18 760092 1525 1983 459 1.000 0.228 0.793 4.020 0.179 0.439 19 760111 1582 1983 402 0.998 0.304 0.482 2.957 0.190 0.631 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 760112 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.235 0.440 3.728 0.190 0.429 21 760121 1651 1983 333 1.007 0.475 2.717 13.962 0.227 0.565 22 760122 1636 1983 348 1.000 0.334 1.732 8.339 0.206 0.544 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 383 1.000 0.303 1.159 6.422 0.209 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.003 0.078 0.782 3.758 0.030 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 394 1.000 0.283 0.777 4.769 0.209 0.488 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 65 0.001 0.109 1.228 4.404 0.038 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 256 0.992 0.205 0.193 2.739 0.158 0.279 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 354 1.000 0.236 0.562 3.935 0.190 0.432 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 419 1.000 0.345 1.790 8.339 0.227 0.591 MAXIMUM VALUE 459 1.007 0.475 2.717 15.107 0.273 0.653 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 760011 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 760012 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 760021 -67 241 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 760022 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 760031 -67 281 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 760032 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 760041 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 760042 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 760051 -67 270 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 760052 -67 268 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 760061 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 760062 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 760071 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 760072 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 760081 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 760082 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 760091 -67 305 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 760092 -67 307 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 760111 -67 269 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 760112 -67 283 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 760121 -67 223 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 760122 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 760011 1562 1983 422 1.000 0.257 0.542 4.502 0.236 0.275 2 760012 1565 1983 419 0.997 0.283 0.673 4.417 0.233 0.414 3 760021 1624 1983 360 0.999 0.375 1.813 8.951 0.262 0.428 4 760022 1597 1983 387 0.998 0.417 2.386 13.303 0.273 0.437 5 760031 1564 1983 420 0.990 0.351 1.628 6.839 0.237 0.479 6 760032 1579 1982 404 0.999 0.221 0.120 2.678 0.211 0.326 7 760041 1615 1983 369 0.999 0.246 0.311 4.361 0.218 0.398 8 760042 1662 1983 322 0.997 0.213 0.468 4.127 0.191 0.352 9 760051 1581 1983 403 0.997 0.373 2.393 12.156 0.219 0.600 10 760052 1583 1983 401 0.997 0.327 2.693 17.072 0.207 0.553 11 760061 1579 1983 405 0.999 0.212 0.774 3.908 0.175 0.388 12 760062 1604 1983 380 0.999 0.197 0.817 5.458 0.160 0.395 13 760071 1644 1983 340 0.999 0.259 1.254 6.044 0.218 0.388 14 760072 1630 1983 354 0.998 0.224 0.560 3.388 0.200 0.342 15 760081 1625 1983 359 0.996 0.300 2.056 12.882 0.181 0.506 16 760082 1728 1983 256 0.997 0.191 0.500 3.506 0.158 0.429 17 760091 1525 1980 456 0.999 0.285 0.632 4.407 0.219 0.442 18 760092 1525 1983 459 0.999 0.216 0.702 3.805 0.179 0.379 19 760111 1582 1983 402 0.995 0.255 0.165 3.432 0.190 0.509 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 760112 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.230 0.414 3.675 0.190 0.413 21 760121 1651 1983 333 0.993 0.413 3.151 19.331 0.227 0.475 22 760122 1636 1983 348 0.997 0.319 1.813 9.436 0.206 0.509 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 383 0.997 0.280 1.176 7.167 0.209 0.429 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.002 0.070 0.905 4.827 0.030 0.077 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 394 0.998 0.258 0.738 4.460 0.209 0.421 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 65 0.002 0.106 1.313 5.632 0.038 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 256 0.990 0.191 0.120 2.678 0.158 0.275 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 354 0.997 0.221 0.500 3.805 0.190 0.388 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 419 0.999 0.327 1.813 9.436 0.227 0.479 MAXIMUM VALUE 459 1.000 0.417 3.151 19.331 0.273 0.600 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.160 0.098 0.006 0.835 4.820 -0.069 0.577 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.069 SERIES 760082 AND 760092 256 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.577 SERIES 760051 AND 760052 401 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. CORR 1. 1. 28. 78. 136. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.017 0.346 0.150 0.133 0.164 0.179 0.143 0.144 0.162 0.154 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.227 0.216 0.189 0.206 0.226 0.189 0.191 0.185 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.043 0.024 0.016 0.015 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.050 0.808 0.690 0.714 0.794 0.820 0.778 0.784 0.810 0.801 NSS 3.0 8.0 12.6 16.2 19.5 20.9 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.198 0.224 0.164 0.152 0.205 0.223 0.110 SDEV 0.178 0.174 0.189 0.178 0.166 0.166 0.213 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.845 0.864 0.811 0.798 0.850 0.863 0.732 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1525 1983 459 0.980 0.133 0.182 2.709 0.119 0.421 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.367 0.233 0.004 189 270 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.73 1.00 1.11 1.84 102.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.68 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.420 0.260 0.246 0.138 0.075 0.087 0.007 0.008 0.024 0.002 PACF 0.420 0.102 0.129 -0.024 -0.018 0.037 -0.063 0.013 0.014 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.093 0.109 0.114 0.118 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.201 0.364 0.053 0.133 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.448 0.277 0.242 0.143 0.111 0.164 0.043 0.007 0.042 -0.003 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.448 2 0.405 0.096 3 0.394 0.052 0.110 4 0.396 0.053 0.117 -0.020 5 0.397 0.050 0.116 -0.028 0.022 6 0.395 0.053 0.104 -0.034 -0.020 0.106 7 0.405 0.051 0.101 -0.023 -0.015 0.145 -0.098 8 0.402 0.055 0.100 -0.024 -0.012 0.146 -0.088 -0.025 9 0.403 0.058 0.095 -0.024 -0.011 0.142 -0.090 -0.039 0.034 10 0.404 0.056 0.093 -0.019 -0.012 0.142 -0.087 -0.037 0.046 -0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3642.57 3541.84 3539.60 3536.05 3537.87 3539.65 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3536.49 3534.04 3535.75 3537.22 3538.82 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.394 0.052 0.110 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 21.74 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 127.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.394 0.207 0.212 0.137 0.088 0.065 0.045 0.031 0.022 0.0150 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 760011 3 0.108 0.236 0.055 0.152 2 760012 3 0.184 0.374 0.065 0.055 3 760021 3 0.208 0.352 0.150 0.041 4 760022 3 0.207 0.426 -0.015 0.088 5 760031 3 0.278 0.396 0.030 0.213 6 760032 3 0.171 0.225 0.179 0.146 7 760041 3 0.201 0.310 0.217 0.010 8 760042 3 0.168 0.267 0.147 0.125 9 760051 3 0.369 0.545 0.072 0.033 10 760052 3 0.343 0.423 0.210 0.033 11 760061 3 0.183 0.337 0.048 0.143 12 760062 3 0.172 0.350 0.064 0.091 13 760071 3 0.157 0.356 0.089 -0.011 14 760072 3 0.152 0.268 0.155 0.076 15 760081 3 0.283 0.426 0.086 0.106 16 760082 3 0.247 0.321 0.207 0.061 17 760091 3 0.266 0.291 0.244 0.103 18 760092 3 0.197 0.276 0.217 0.065 19 760111 3 0.297 0.404 0.104 0.142 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 760112 3 0.196 0.369 0.045 0.112 21 760121 3 0.238 0.457 0.070 -0.055 22 760122 3 0.299 0.566 -0.039 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.224 0.362 0.109 0.079 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.066 0.090 0.080 0.064 MEDIAN 3 0.204 0.354 0.088 0.082 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.106 0.132 0.124 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.108 0.225 -0.039 -0.055 LOWER HINGE 3 0.172 0.291 0.055 0.033 UPPER HINGE 3 0.278 0.423 0.179 0.125 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.369 0.566 0.244 0.213 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 760011 1562 1983 422 1.000 0.243 0.440 4.140 0.265 -0.008 2 760012 1565 1983 419 1.000 0.256 0.786 5.696 0.276 -0.004 3 760021 1624 1983 360 1.000 0.332 2.078 12.677 0.319 -0.001 4 760022 1597 1983 387 1.001 0.371 2.280 13.616 0.339 0.007 5 760031 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.299 1.458 7.521 0.292 0.012 6 760032 1579 1982 404 1.000 0.202 0.137 2.878 0.235 -0.011 7 760041 1615 1983 369 1.000 0.220 0.409 5.065 0.248 -0.001 8 760042 1662 1983 322 1.000 0.194 0.374 3.982 0.217 -0.003 9 760051 1581 1983 403 1.000 0.296 1.895 10.376 0.284 0.002 10 760052 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.265 2.200 19.607 0.256 0.001 11 760061 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.192 0.884 4.832 0.207 -0.012 12 760062 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.179 0.834 5.792 0.191 0.003 13 760071 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.238 1.005 4.996 0.261 0.000 14 760072 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.207 0.478 3.242 0.230 -0.004 15 760081 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.255 2.348 17.209 0.225 0.010 16 760082 1728 1983 256 1.000 0.167 0.323 3.631 0.187 -0.013 17 760091 1525 1980 456 1.000 0.244 0.649 5.001 0.260 -0.004 18 760092 1525 1983 459 1.000 0.194 0.487 4.024 0.206 -0.005 19 760111 1582 1983 402 1.000 0.213 -0.106 5.070 0.228 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 760112 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.207 0.064 4.715 0.232 -0.010 21 760121 1651 1983 333 1.000 0.363 3.018 20.425 0.291 -0.006 22 760122 1636 1983 348 1.000 0.262 1.307 7.947 0.271 -0.037 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 383 1.000 0.245 1.061 7.838 0.251 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.057 0.880 5.406 0.040 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 394 1.000 0.240 0.810 5.067 0.252 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 65 0.000 0.064 1.486 6.235 0.051 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 256 1.000 0.167 -0.106 2.878 0.187 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 354 1.000 0.202 0.409 4.140 0.225 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 419 1.000 0.265 1.895 10.376 0.276 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 459 1.001 0.371 3.018 20.425 0.339 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.158 0.086 0.006 1.396 6.605 -0.010 0.562 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.010 SERIES 760091 AND 760111 399 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.562 SERIES 760051 AND 760052 401 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 77.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1580. 1605. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. CORR 1. 1. 28. 78. 136. 190. 210. 210. 231. 231. RBAR 0.118 0.391 0.222 0.152 0.211 0.188 0.152 0.156 0.173 0.138 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.189 0.183 0.138 0.183 0.192 0.173 0.160 0.152 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.036 0.021 0.012 0.013 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.284 0.837 0.782 0.744 0.840 0.828 0.790 0.799 0.822 0.779 NSS 3.0 8.0 12.6 16.2 19.5 20.9 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.0 YEAR 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.148 0.180 0.189 0.175 0.160 0.145 0.110 SDEV 0.160 0.153 0.159 0.153 0.143 0.137 0.147 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.793 0.829 0.837 0.824 0.807 0.788 0.731 NSS 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1525 1983 459 0.987 0.116 0.034 2.765 0.134 0.020 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.335 0.207 -0.008 201 258 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.84 1.00 1.10 1.94 12.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.75 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.020 -0.057 0.019 -0.005 -0.021 0.037 -0.053 -0.018 0.035 0.009 PACF 0.020 -0.057 0.022 -0.009 -0.018 0.037 -0.057 -0.010 0.027 0.008 95% C.L. 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.006 -0.022 0.036 -0.053 -0.013 0.029 0.012 PACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.006 -0.022 0.037 -0.053 -0.013 0.029 0.011 95% C.L. 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1525 1983 459 0.987 0.131 0.135 2.629 0.114 0.445 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.444 0.271 0.232 0.141 0.083 0.082 0.013 0.021 0.050 0.034 PACF 0.444 0.092 0.103 -0.013 -0.010 0.029 -0.055 0.023 0.040 0.004 95% C.L. 0.093 0.110 0.116 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.214 0.394 0.049 0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES