RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA558E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA558E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 763 1 Fryday Ridge, oberhalb WIDTH_EARLY PSME - 763 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1560 4045-12340 1642 19 763 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 763012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1825 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 763031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1933 1934 / 1970 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 763032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 763062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1838 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 0.913 0.322 1.429 5.848 0.188 0.761 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.028 0.452 1.123 3.798 0.196 0.850 3 763021 1823 1983 161 0.582 0.210 0.438 2.956 0.243 0.601 4 763022 1773 1983 211 0.968 0.485 0.920 3.578 0.221 0.814 5 763031 1642 1983 342 0.607 0.331 0.673 3.315 0.205 0.864 6 763032 1649 1983 335 0.612 0.304 0.577 3.105 0.195 0.876 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.231 0.376 -0.098 3.150 0.199 0.711 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.268 0.326 0.218 2.720 0.206 0.504 9 763051 1838 1983 146 0.560 0.250 1.008 3.663 0.176 0.828 10 763052 1721 1983 263 0.628 0.213 0.258 2.467 0.171 0.771 11 763061 1770 1983 214 0.796 0.256 0.854 4.236 0.212 0.703 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.377 0.362 0.540 3.476 0.168 0.686 13 763071 1749 1983 235 0.934 0.415 0.675 2.763 0.193 0.851 14 763072 1774 1983 210 0.791 0.395 1.790 7.371 0.227 0.793 15 763081 1756 1983 228 0.952 0.369 1.448 5.822 0.237 0.675 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.019 0.412 1.784 7.020 0.210 0.681 17 763091 1737 1983 247 0.891 0.359 1.258 4.257 0.185 0.827 18 763092 1750 1983 234 0.909 0.300 1.614 7.019 0.159 0.785 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.039 0.357 0.998 3.294 0.166 0.826 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 0.841 0.466 0.486 1.904 0.158 0.934 21 763111 1643 1983 341 0.683 0.388 0.992 3.112 0.144 0.930 22 763112 1679 1983 305 0.728 0.301 1.108 3.962 0.153 0.890 23 763121 1751 1983 233 0.695 0.279 0.821 3.360 0.194 0.758 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.301 0.387 0.988 3.902 0.166 0.756 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.213 0.440 1.077 4.600 0.208 0.719 26 763132 1753 1983 231 0.899 0.271 0.893 5.087 0.235 0.522 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1642 TO 1983 342 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 0.903 0.347 0.918 4.069 0.193 0.766 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.236 0.075 0.471 1.459 0.027 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 0.904 0.358 0.954 3.620 0.195 0.778 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.333 0.094 0.546 1.488 0.042 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.560 0.210 -0.098 1.904 0.144 0.504 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 0.695 0.300 0.577 3.112 0.168 0.703 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.028 0.395 1.123 4.600 0.210 0.850 MAXIMUM VALUE 341 1.377 0.485 1.790 7.371 0.243 0.934 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.477 0.198 0.011 -0.694 3.545 -0.290 0.845 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.290 SERIES 763111 AND 763122 161 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.845 SERIES 763011 AND 763012 200 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.411 0.434 0.425 0.400 0.375 0.402 0.436 0.342 0.416 0.416 SDEV 0.250 0.293 0.241 0.201 0.219 0.236 0.263 0.289 0.217 0.276 SERR 0.144 0.119 0.062 0.033 0.020 0.016 0.015 0.016 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.742 0.808 0.876 0.912 0.925 0.942 0.952 0.931 0.949 0.949 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.290 SDEV 0.238 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.914 NSS 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.913 0.261 0.457 3.301 0.156 0.761 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.143 0.070 0.265 87 255 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.34 1.00 1.05 1.39 7.25 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 221. 54. 146. 193. 247. 342. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.759 0.644 0.615 0.525 0.462 0.460 0.448 0.410 0.403 0.393 PACF 0.759 0.161 0.202 -0.053 0.020 0.111 0.073 -0.002 0.043 0.026 95% C.L. 0.108 0.159 0.187 0.209 0.224 0.235 0.245 0.255 0.262 0.269 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.624 0.618 0.008 0.223 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 763011 1 0.95596832 0.01154038 0.00000000 0.54255283 2 763012 1 1.36917579 0.01106905 0.00000000 0.48274139 3 763021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00239786 0.77577949 4 763022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00611655 1.61622202 5 763031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00253831 1.03742135 6 763032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181139 0.91502613 7 763041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00459238 1.67170620 8 763042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063345 1.32652891 9 763051 1 1.08867002 0.12674360 0.00000000 0.50468057 10 763052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00130710 0.80025631 11 763061 1 0.36168718 0.04473214 0.00000000 0.75922710 12 763062 1 1.02659214 0.02378652 0.00000000 1.13900185 13 763071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00440607 1.45353305 14 763072 1 1.11961317 0.02093393 0.00000000 0.54223478 15 763081 1 1.12472653 0.00417482 0.00000000 0.22811705 16 763082 1 0.94312871 0.01775057 0.00000000 0.75530052 17 763091 1 1.13341749 0.02781041 0.00000000 0.72891545 18 763092 1 0.82494789 0.00692130 0.00000000 0.50202668 19 763101 1 1.05003703 0.01352317 0.00000000 0.71646523 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 763102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00473036 1.47049654 21 763111 1 1.40281415 0.00620427 0.00000000 0.10155281 22 763112 1 0.88961965 0.01346355 0.00000000 0.51656657 23 763121 1 0.66392416 0.01781457 0.00000000 0.53878146 24 763122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081732 1.36719644 25 763131 1 0.86493504 0.02419809 0.00000000 1.03526473 26 763132 1 0.59114277 0.00324140 0.00000000 0.48314247 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.217 0.525 3.474 0.187 0.372 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.267 0.374 3.032 0.196 0.561 3 763021 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.322 0.780 3.874 0.242 0.535 4 763022 1773 1983 211 1.024 0.364 1.009 5.413 0.219 0.658 5 763031 1642 1983 342 0.987 0.343 0.248 4.409 0.210 0.708 6 763032 1649 1983 335 0.996 0.406 0.840 7.544 0.196 0.769 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.247 -0.093 3.413 0.198 0.494 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.256 0.191 2.614 0.205 0.497 9 763051 1838 1983 146 0.999 0.370 0.709 3.322 0.174 0.792 10 763052 1721 1983 263 0.998 0.290 0.008 2.643 0.170 0.720 11 763061 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.311 0.968 5.297 0.212 0.661 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.195 0.171 3.494 0.167 0.397 13 763071 1749 1983 235 0.997 0.292 0.619 3.166 0.192 0.635 14 763072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.342 1.232 4.920 0.225 0.593 15 763081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.302 0.787 3.921 0.235 0.474 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.000 0.295 0.821 4.107 0.209 0.498 17 763091 1737 1983 247 0.999 0.282 0.731 3.973 0.184 0.672 18 763092 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.242 1.300 6.245 0.158 0.616 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.218 0.391 2.690 0.165 0.559 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 1.072 0.598 2.051 7.735 0.158 0.906 21 763111 1643 1983 341 1.006 0.258 0.547 2.940 0.144 0.728 22 763112 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.257 -0.098 3.499 0.152 0.737 23 763121 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.333 0.788 3.728 0.193 0.693 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.294 0.968 3.940 0.165 0.748 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.309 0.561 3.162 0.207 0.613 26 763132 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.278 0.506 3.996 0.234 0.452 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 1.003 0.303 0.651 4.098 0.192 0.619 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.015 0.078 0.470 1.366 0.027 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.293 0.664 3.801 0.195 0.625 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.000 0.076 0.465 1.242 0.043 0.222 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.987 0.195 -0.098 2.614 0.144 0.372 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 1.000 0.257 0.374 3.166 0.167 0.498 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.333 0.840 4.409 0.210 0.720 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.072 0.598 2.051 7.735 0.242 0.906 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 763011 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 763012 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 763021 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 763022 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 763031 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 763032 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 763041 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 763042 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 763051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 763052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 763061 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 763062 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 763071 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 763072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 763081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 763082 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 763091 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 763092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 763101 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 763102 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 763111 -67 228 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 763112 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 763121 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 763122 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 763131 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 763132 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.213 0.615 3.630 0.187 0.341 2 763012 1783 1983 201 0.997 0.252 0.374 3.129 0.196 0.512 3 763021 1823 1983 161 0.997 0.311 0.749 3.836 0.242 0.507 4 763022 1773 1983 211 0.996 0.288 0.439 3.571 0.220 0.479 5 763031 1642 1983 342 0.994 0.337 0.947 8.137 0.210 0.666 6 763032 1649 1983 335 0.992 0.392 1.547 13.251 0.197 0.738 7 763041 1793 1983 191 0.998 0.237 -0.171 3.380 0.198 0.458 8 763042 1800 1983 184 0.998 0.236 0.140 2.789 0.205 0.420 9 763051 1838 1983 146 0.983 0.260 0.518 2.949 0.175 0.606 10 763052 1721 1983 263 0.997 0.270 -0.129 2.643 0.170 0.678 11 763061 1770 1983 214 0.998 0.296 0.729 4.153 0.212 0.636 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.189 0.032 3.213 0.167 0.375 13 763071 1749 1983 235 0.998 0.274 0.458 2.981 0.192 0.590 14 763072 1774 1983 210 0.997 0.328 1.273 5.460 0.225 0.568 15 763081 1756 1983 228 0.999 0.299 0.783 3.926 0.235 0.468 16 763082 1791 1983 193 0.998 0.287 0.849 4.382 0.209 0.470 17 763091 1737 1983 247 0.997 0.245 0.675 4.543 0.184 0.566 18 763092 1750 1983 234 0.998 0.219 1.257 6.299 0.158 0.531 19 763101 1756 1983 228 0.998 0.204 0.373 2.773 0.165 0.492 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 0.979 0.236 0.550 3.475 0.158 0.650 21 763111 1643 1983 341 0.996 0.210 0.562 3.885 0.144 0.598 22 763112 1679 1983 305 0.998 0.246 -0.151 3.456 0.152 0.715 23 763121 1751 1983 233 0.991 0.279 0.635 3.755 0.193 0.578 24 763122 1823 1983 161 0.994 0.210 0.333 3.356 0.165 0.545 25 763131 1787 1983 197 0.998 0.295 0.549 3.180 0.207 0.573 26 763132 1753 1983 231 0.999 0.276 0.522 4.086 0.234 0.446 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 0.996 0.265 0.556 4.240 0.192 0.546 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.005 0.047 0.422 2.190 0.027 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 0.997 0.265 0.550 3.601 0.195 0.556 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.002 0.059 0.377 0.973 0.043 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.979 0.189 -0.171 2.643 0.144 0.341 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 0.996 0.236 0.373 3.180 0.167 0.470 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 0.998 0.295 0.749 4.153 0.210 0.606 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.392 1.547 13.251 0.242 0.738 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.354 0.156 0.009 -0.118 2.942 -0.095 0.834 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.095 SERIES 763052 AND 763072 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.834 SERIES 763081 AND 763132 228 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.290 0.596 0.479 0.466 0.328 0.365 0.374 0.389 0.451 0.433 SDEV 0.332 0.179 0.194 0.172 0.215 0.201 0.261 0.260 0.199 0.215 SERR 0.192 0.073 0.050 0.029 0.020 0.013 0.015 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.627 0.890 0.898 0.931 0.909 0.933 0.939 0.943 0.955 0.952 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.305 SDEV 0.233 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.920 NSS 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.984 0.186 -0.391 4.274 0.149 0.526 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.168 0.072 0.127 94 248 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.40 1.00 1.09 1.48 19.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.525 0.328 0.317 0.177 0.059 0.069 0.054 -0.021 -0.002 -0.001 PACF 0.525 0.073 0.165 -0.082 -0.070 0.040 0.013 -0.058 0.026 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.108 0.135 0.144 0.152 0.154 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.284 0.529 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.355 0.141 0.280 0.115 -0.005 0.040 0.077 -0.036 -0.047 -0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.355 2 0.349 0.017 3 0.345 -0.074 0.258 4 0.365 -0.079 0.284 -0.077 5 0.361 -0.066 0.281 -0.060 -0.046 6 0.361 -0.066 0.282 -0.060 -0.044 -0.005 7 0.361 -0.063 0.286 -0.079 -0.040 -0.030 0.067 8 0.366 -0.066 0.283 -0.085 -0.019 -0.034 0.094 -0.074 9 0.365 -0.064 0.283 -0.086 -0.020 -0.029 0.092 -0.066 -0.020 10 0.363 -0.070 0.291 -0.088 -0.022 -0.036 0.119 -0.072 0.014 -0.092 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2795.87 2751.79 2753.69 2732.16 2732.14 2733.41 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2735.40 2735.85 2735.99 2737.85 2736.92 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.355 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.61 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.43 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.355 0.126 0.045 0.016 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 763011 1 0.120 0.345 2 763012 1 0.288 0.515 3 763021 1 0.272 0.509 4 763022 1 0.231 0.479 5 763031 1 0.455 0.670 6 763032 1 0.550 0.739 7 763041 1 0.249 0.464 8 763042 1 0.184 0.426 9 763051 1 0.374 0.606 10 763052 1 0.472 0.680 11 763061 1 0.428 0.641 12 763062 1 0.164 0.385 13 763071 1 0.377 0.609 14 763072 1 0.333 0.573 15 763081 1 0.222 0.470 16 763082 1 0.226 0.475 17 763091 1 0.325 0.567 18 763092 1 0.285 0.533 19 763101 1 0.245 0.494 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 763102 1 0.452 0.655 21 763111 1 0.359 0.598 22 763112 1 0.516 0.715 23 763121 1 0.352 0.582 24 763122 1 0.298 0.546 25 763131 1 0.331 0.575 26 763132 1 0.199 0.447 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.319 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.111 0.100 MEDIAN 1 0.311 0.557 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.145 0.133 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.120 0.345 LOWER HINGE 1 0.231 0.475 UPPER HINGE 1 0.377 0.609 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.550 0.739 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.199 0.437 3.452 0.222 -0.017 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.216 0.187 3.173 0.253 -0.093 3 763021 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.267 0.479 3.454 0.324 -0.068 4 763022 1773 1983 211 1.000 0.252 0.305 3.733 0.279 -0.019 5 763031 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.250 1.696 15.866 0.264 -0.070 6 763032 1649 1983 335 1.000 0.264 3.410 36.937 0.259 -0.072 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.210 0.056 3.274 0.249 -0.089 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.213 0.204 2.880 0.239 -0.023 9 763051 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.207 1.055 4.899 0.222 -0.062 10 763052 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.197 -0.026 3.756 0.228 -0.091 11 763061 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.227 0.190 3.275 0.279 -0.108 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.175 0.319 3.228 0.201 -0.045 13 763071 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.217 0.445 3.447 0.242 -0.042 14 763072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.269 1.064 5.537 0.288 -0.047 15 763081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.264 0.366 3.760 0.289 0.019 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.000 0.252 0.636 4.527 0.263 0.004 17 763091 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.202 0.527 3.829 0.229 -0.035 18 763092 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.186 0.820 5.533 0.202 -0.017 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.177 0.233 3.148 0.203 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.178 0.252 3.637 0.210 -0.130 21 763111 1643 1983 341 1.000 0.169 0.522 4.435 0.187 -0.023 22 763112 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.172 -0.104 3.491 0.200 -0.068 23 763121 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.227 0.766 5.174 0.251 -0.080 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.176 0.105 3.159 0.202 -0.001 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.241 0.636 3.788 0.255 0.014 26 763132 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.247 0.229 3.787 0.281 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 1.000 0.217 0.570 5.584 0.243 -0.045 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.033 0.698 6.854 0.035 0.040 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.214 0.402 3.744 0.245 -0.044 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.000 0.064 0.432 1.252 0.054 0.055 MINIMUM VALUE 146 1.000 0.169 -0.104 2.880 0.187 -0.130 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 1.000 0.186 0.204 3.275 0.210 -0.072 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.250 0.636 4.527 0.264 -0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.269 3.410 36.937 0.324 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.475 0.126 0.007 -0.144 2.696 0.181 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.181 SERIES 763092 AND 763111 234 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 763081 AND 763132 228 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.472 0.590 0.582 0.507 0.403 0.512 0.542 0.578 0.585 0.509 SDEV 0.170 0.130 0.149 0.111 0.148 0.133 0.149 0.160 0.148 0.145 SERR 0.098 0.053 0.039 0.019 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.787 0.887 0.931 0.941 0.933 0.962 0.968 0.973 0.973 0.964 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.400 SDEV 0.197 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.945 NSS 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.993 0.151 0.015 3.070 0.181 -0.092 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.215 0.081 0.053 93 249 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.58 1.00 1.09 1.68 308.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.092 -0.103 0.171 0.001 -0.075 0.041 0.055 -0.088 0.012 0.025 PACF -0.092 -0.112 0.154 0.020 -0.043 0.007 0.048 -0.059 0.003 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.108 0.109 0.110 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.045 -0.085 -0.097 0.156 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 -0.097 0.164 0.009 -0.073 0.040 0.052 -0.083 0.007 0.018 PACF -0.010 -0.097 0.163 0.001 -0.043 0.015 0.041 -0.063 0.008 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.992 0.159 0.010 3.292 0.147 0.332 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.331 0.082 0.170 0.049 -0.034 0.030 0.031 -0.060 -0.014 -0.008 PACF 0.331 -0.031 0.171 -0.068 -0.034 0.035 0.011 -0.068 0.023 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.108 0.119 0.120 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.112 0.333 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES