RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA558I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA558I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 763 1 Fryday Ridge, oberhalb DENSITY_EARLY PSME - 763 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1560 4045-12340 1642 19 763 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 763012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1825 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 763031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1933 1934 / 1970 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 763032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 763062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1838 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 3.767 0.321 0.309 2.177 0.046 0.788 2 763012 1783 1983 201 3.807 0.306 0.825 3.589 0.049 0.653 3 763021 1823 1983 161 3.791 0.293 0.656 2.626 0.047 0.720 4 763022 1773 1983 211 3.762 0.277 0.441 3.185 0.053 0.536 5 763031 1642 1983 342 4.031 0.221 -0.277 4.208 0.036 0.608 6 763032 1649 1983 335 3.987 0.230 0.385 3.660 0.036 0.628 7 763041 1793 1983 191 4.098 0.309 1.020 4.483 0.038 0.801 8 763042 1800 1983 184 3.759 0.321 0.394 3.140 0.037 0.856 9 763051 1838 1983 146 3.711 0.301 0.656 2.795 0.034 0.857 10 763052 1721 1983 263 3.602 0.277 0.646 3.876 0.038 0.760 11 763061 1770 1983 214 4.058 0.262 0.287 2.716 0.043 0.591 12 763062 1810 1983 174 3.942 0.303 1.216 5.000 0.047 0.638 13 763071 1749 1983 235 3.660 0.245 0.078 2.344 0.043 0.671 14 763072 1774 1983 210 4.041 0.459 -0.034 1.797 0.045 0.862 15 763081 1756 1983 228 3.582 0.235 0.082 3.111 0.044 0.628 16 763082 1791 1983 193 3.488 0.276 0.523 3.903 0.039 0.788 17 763091 1737 1983 247 3.585 0.259 1.265 6.029 0.045 0.607 18 763092 1750 1983 234 3.503 0.252 1.013 4.473 0.055 0.390 19 763101 1756 1983 228 3.445 0.277 0.528 3.942 0.047 0.671 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 3.490 0.228 0.213 2.780 0.045 0.617 21 763111 1643 1983 341 3.164 0.240 0.807 4.268 0.046 0.628 22 763112 1679 1983 305 3.086 0.180 0.893 5.271 0.046 0.451 23 763121 1751 1983 233 4.103 0.456 -1.030 3.386 0.043 0.882 24 763122 1823 1983 161 4.128 0.305 0.029 2.540 0.044 0.711 25 763131 1787 1983 197 3.542 0.290 -0.334 3.895 0.058 0.588 26 763132 1753 1983 231 3.222 0.339 -0.027 2.573 0.049 0.807 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1642 TO 1983 342 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 3.706 0.287 0.406 3.530 0.044 0.682 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.295 0.062 0.521 1.020 0.006 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 3.735 0.277 0.417 3.488 0.045 0.662 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.483 0.062 0.728 1.492 0.008 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 146 3.086 0.180 -1.030 1.797 0.034 0.390 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 3.503 0.245 0.078 2.716 0.039 0.608 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 3.987 0.306 0.807 4.208 0.047 0.788 MAXIMUM VALUE 341 4.128 0.459 1.265 6.029 0.058 0.882 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.240 0.250 0.014 0.077 2.189 -0.317 0.771 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.317 SERIES 763042 AND 763051 146 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.771 SERIES 763012 AND 763051 146 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.022 0.115 0.184 0.154 0.130 0.110 0.224 0.252 0.280 0.330 SDEV 0.298 0.138 0.199 0.218 0.259 0.219 0.248 0.243 0.231 0.226 SERR 0.172 0.056 0.051 0.036 0.024 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.087 0.416 0.684 0.739 0.755 0.749 0.881 0.898 0.910 0.927 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.187 SDEV 0.225 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.857 NSS 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 3.706 0.170 0.335 2.975 0.028 0.711 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.114 -0.096 0.786 56 286 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.20 1.00 1.03 1.22 2.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 221. 54. 146. 193. 247. 342. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.709 0.637 0.587 0.554 0.530 0.534 0.547 0.511 0.447 0.438 PACF 0.709 0.270 0.143 0.102 0.084 0.120 0.128 0.007 -0.083 0.027 95% C.L. 0.108 0.153 0.182 0.203 0.220 0.234 0.248 0.262 0.273 0.281 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.575 0.442 0.154 0.059 0.028 0.002 0.066 0.135 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 763011 1 1.07537329 0.00880621 0.00000000 3.26389837 2 763012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00239769 4.05614424 3 763021 1 0.87216055 0.03553674 0.00000000 3.64180923 4 763022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00199499 3.97331762 5 763031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076577 4.16061640 6 763032 1 0.45420265 0.00361279 0.00000000 3.72334766 7 763041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084143 4.01697111 8 763042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00169232 3.60204744 9 763051 1 1.05847919 0.01838941 0.00000000 3.34665799 10 763052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00167452 3.82278585 11 763061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00263321 4.34087420 12 763062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00200932 4.12046862 13 763071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00226052 3.92686844 14 763072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00589222 4.66243839 15 763081 1 0.21603648 0.01483497 0.00000000 3.52047253 16 763082 1 0.79752898 0.01465057 0.00000000 3.22508121 17 763091 1 0.26484630 0.00446523 0.00000000 3.42463756 18 763092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010552 3.49072123 19 763101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00250926 3.15738320 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 763102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00153332 3.28618193 21 763111 1 1.09922433 0.00169693 0.00000000 2.33055043 22 763112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031046 3.03833508 23 763121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00193976 3.87643814 24 763122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00481628 4.51800680 25 763131 1 0.44798505 0.01709554 0.00000000 3.41463971 26 763132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00339494 3.61615014 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.054 0.545 4.604 0.046 0.455 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.072 0.637 3.417 0.050 0.568 3 763021 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.055 0.370 3.694 0.047 0.430 4 763022 1773 1983 211 1.000 0.066 0.545 4.109 0.053 0.413 5 763031 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.052 -0.078 3.905 0.036 0.553 6 763032 1649 1983 335 1.000 0.053 0.617 4.220 0.036 0.563 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.074 0.689 3.677 0.038 0.789 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.082 0.213 2.616 0.037 0.835 9 763051 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.037 -0.201 3.500 0.034 0.291 10 763052 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.068 0.413 5.121 0.038 0.687 11 763061 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.051 0.435 3.323 0.043 0.342 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.072 0.671 4.053 0.046 0.593 13 763071 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.052 -0.008 3.591 0.043 0.444 14 763072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.071 0.355 3.307 0.045 0.649 15 763081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.064 0.188 3.169 0.044 0.601 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.000 0.054 0.373 3.389 0.039 0.543 17 763091 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.070 1.074 5.661 0.045 0.589 18 763092 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.072 1.009 4.482 0.055 0.388 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.065 1.119 6.074 0.047 0.498 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.056 0.379 2.991 0.045 0.476 21 763111 1643 1983 341 1.000 0.062 0.974 6.031 0.046 0.435 22 763112 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.058 0.917 5.422 0.046 0.436 23 763121 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.109 -0.425 2.591 0.043 0.873 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.050 0.036 3.528 0.044 0.371 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.076 -0.233 4.457 0.057 0.514 26 763132 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.080 0.388 3.461 0.049 0.665 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 1.000 0.064 0.423 4.015 0.044 0.539 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.014 0.414 0.974 0.006 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.064 0.401 3.686 0.045 0.529 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.000 0.018 0.483 1.092 0.008 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 146 1.000 0.037 -0.425 2.591 0.034 0.291 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 1.000 0.054 0.188 3.389 0.039 0.435 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.072 0.671 4.482 0.047 0.601 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.109 1.119 6.074 0.057 0.873 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 763011 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 763012 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 763021 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 763022 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 763031 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 763032 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 763041 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 763042 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 763051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 763052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 763061 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 763062 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 763071 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 763072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 763081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 763082 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 763091 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 763092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 763101 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 763102 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 763111 -67 228 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 763112 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 763121 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 763122 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 763131 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 763132 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.051 0.608 4.683 0.046 0.400 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.057 0.721 3.938 0.050 0.329 3 763021 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.051 0.317 3.382 0.047 0.335 4 763022 1773 1983 211 1.000 0.060 0.823 5.829 0.053 0.279 5 763031 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.049 -0.095 4.427 0.036 0.499 6 763032 1649 1983 335 1.000 0.052 0.623 4.294 0.036 0.552 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.055 0.273 3.159 0.038 0.602 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.054 0.386 3.173 0.037 0.611 9 763051 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.036 -0.192 3.501 0.034 0.259 10 763052 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.063 0.201 5.100 0.038 0.645 11 763061 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.049 0.473 3.424 0.043 0.285 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.063 0.812 4.537 0.046 0.484 13 763071 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.048 0.081 4.360 0.043 0.347 14 763072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.065 0.449 4.012 0.045 0.578 15 763081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.056 0.295 3.789 0.044 0.491 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.000 0.053 0.286 3.274 0.039 0.529 17 763091 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.066 1.086 5.662 0.045 0.529 18 763092 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.065 1.258 5.260 0.055 0.267 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.059 1.203 6.448 0.047 0.401 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.049 0.328 3.588 0.045 0.336 21 763111 1643 1983 341 1.000 0.060 1.058 6.673 0.046 0.400 22 763112 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.055 0.951 5.560 0.046 0.381 23 763121 1751 1983 233 0.999 0.062 0.218 3.483 0.043 0.613 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.048 0.009 3.538 0.044 0.318 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.075 -0.138 4.457 0.057 0.498 26 763132 1753 1983 231 0.999 0.067 0.642 4.667 0.049 0.518 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 1.000 0.056 0.488 4.393 0.044 0.442 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.008 0.413 1.017 0.006 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.056 0.417 4.327 0.045 0.443 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.000 0.012 0.594 1.598 0.008 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.999 0.036 -0.192 3.159 0.034 0.259 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 1.000 0.051 0.218 3.501 0.039 0.335 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.063 0.812 5.100 0.047 0.529 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.075 1.258 6.673 0.057 0.645 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.220 0.131 0.007 -0.313 2.851 -0.175 0.555 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.175 SERIES 763062 AND 763091 174 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.555 SERIES 763021 AND 763022 161 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.035 0.128 0.179 0.162 0.135 0.130 0.164 0.203 0.341 0.339 SDEV 0.315 0.138 0.180 0.204 0.235 0.209 0.201 0.191 0.230 0.198 SERR 0.182 0.056 0.046 0.034 0.021 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.128 0.446 0.677 0.751 0.762 0.782 0.835 0.869 0.931 0.930 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.230 SDEV 0.176 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.886 NSS 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.998 0.029 0.424 3.143 0.026 0.366 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.172 0.103 -0.058 100 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.49 1.00 1.09 1.58 21.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.364 0.287 0.221 0.191 0.167 0.213 0.208 0.151 0.021 0.070 PACF 0.364 0.177 0.084 0.064 0.048 0.114 0.078 -0.002 -0.130 0.024 95% C.L. 0.108 0.122 0.129 0.134 0.137 0.139 0.143 0.146 0.148 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.170 0.285 0.152 0.084 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.357 0.280 0.243 0.244 0.196 0.202 0.234 0.148 0.035 0.042 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.357 2 0.294 0.176 3 0.274 0.142 0.115 4 0.260 0.125 0.083 0.116 5 0.255 0.121 0.078 0.105 0.045 6 0.252 0.114 0.072 0.096 0.027 0.071 7 0.244 0.111 0.062 0.088 0.015 0.045 0.106 8 0.247 0.112 0.063 0.091 0.016 0.047 0.111 -0.024 9 0.244 0.125 0.068 0.092 0.027 0.055 0.125 0.006 -0.119 10 0.240 0.126 0.073 0.094 0.028 0.058 0.127 0.010 -0.111 -0.035 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1600.90 1556.40 1547.70 1545.12 1542.46 1543.77 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1544.02 1542.18 1543.99 1541.09 1542.67 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.260 0.125 0.083 0.116 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.66 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.44 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.260 0.193 0.166 0.206 0.121 0.093 0.076 0.065 0.048 0.0380 0.030 0.024 0.019 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.0036 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 763011 4 0.228 0.272 0.149 0.096 0.128 2 763012 4 0.158 0.246 0.142 0.047 0.118 3 763021 4 0.121 0.312 0.064 0.025 0.014 4 763022 4 0.115 0.251 0.070 -0.031 0.175 5 763031 4 0.295 0.434 0.172 -0.087 0.105 6 763032 4 0.329 0.451 0.139 0.034 0.034 7 763041 4 0.445 0.392 0.268 0.070 0.035 8 763042 4 0.444 0.417 0.255 0.004 0.092 9 763051 4 0.138 0.169 0.186 0.154 0.019 10 763052 4 0.486 0.418 0.168 0.182 0.034 11 763061 4 0.097 0.251 0.086 0.037 0.034 12 763062 4 0.298 0.334 0.152 0.118 0.081 13 763071 4 0.144 0.297 0.085 0.074 0.025 14 763072 4 0.367 0.483 0.024 0.123 0.083 15 763081 4 0.268 0.417 0.066 0.113 0.022 16 763082 4 0.320 0.494 0.054 -0.095 0.208 17 763091 4 0.316 0.413 0.140 0.058 0.058 18 763092 4 0.074 0.267 0.008 -0.013 0.001 19 763101 4 0.217 0.288 0.139 0.131 0.052 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 763102 4 0.158 0.266 0.136 0.069 0.049 21 763111 4 0.181 0.340 0.084 0.098 0.008 22 763112 4 0.191 0.315 0.177 -0.045 0.086 23 763121 4 0.448 0.428 0.168 0.114 0.055 24 763122 4 0.169 0.208 0.210 0.110 0.035 25 763131 4 0.269 0.436 0.075 0.032 0.067 26 763132 4 0.289 0.455 0.043 0.055 0.088 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.253 0.348 0.125 0.057 0.066 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.092 0.067 0.070 0.051 MEDIAN 4 0.248 0.337 0.139 0.064 0.053 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.162 0.161 0.098 0.088 0.054 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.074 0.169 0.008 -0.095 0.001 LOWER HINGE 4 0.158 0.267 0.070 0.025 0.034 UPPER HINGE 4 0.320 0.428 0.168 0.113 0.088 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.486 0.494 0.268 0.182 0.208 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.045 0.525 3.761 0.052 -0.002 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.052 0.739 4.303 0.056 0.007 3 763021 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.048 0.350 3.645 0.053 -0.003 4 763022 1773 1983 211 1.000 0.056 0.979 6.406 0.058 -0.008 5 763031 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.041 0.093 4.007 0.043 0.010 6 763032 1649 1983 335 1.000 0.043 0.540 5.599 0.045 -0.002 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.041 0.172 3.500 0.045 0.012 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.040 0.272 3.097 0.045 0.006 9 763051 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.034 -0.226 3.319 0.037 -0.006 10 763052 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.045 1.167 7.449 0.046 -0.006 11 763061 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.046 0.473 3.536 0.049 -0.001 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.053 1.421 7.782 0.054 -0.010 13 763071 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.045 0.244 4.067 0.050 0.002 14 763072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.052 0.729 5.590 0.056 0.003 15 763081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.048 -0.037 5.240 0.053 -0.002 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.000 0.044 0.233 3.114 0.049 -0.009 17 763091 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.054 0.948 6.546 0.055 -0.005 18 763092 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.063 1.380 5.711 0.062 -0.002 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.053 1.386 8.447 0.054 -0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.045 0.220 3.843 0.052 -0.009 21 763111 1643 1983 341 1.000 0.054 1.307 9.220 0.055 -0.001 22 763112 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.050 0.923 5.130 0.053 0.009 23 763121 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.047 0.453 4.406 0.052 -0.016 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.044 0.204 3.964 0.049 -0.003 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.064 0.443 4.801 0.068 0.006 26 763132 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.056 0.913 5.830 0.060 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 1.000 0.049 0.610 5.089 0.052 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.007 0.471 1.703 0.006 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.047 0.499 4.604 0.052 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.000 0.009 0.714 2.069 0.007 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 146 1.000 0.034 -0.226 3.097 0.037 -0.016 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 1.000 0.044 0.233 3.761 0.049 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.053 0.948 5.830 0.055 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.064 1.421 9.220 0.068 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.241 0.107 0.006 0.161 2.901 -0.025 0.570 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.025 SERIES 763012 AND 763111 201 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.570 SERIES 763081 AND 763132 228 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.067 0.122 0.193 0.214 0.192 0.165 0.214 0.253 0.333 0.318 SDEV 0.241 0.157 0.178 0.165 0.163 0.152 0.158 0.148 0.179 0.164 SERR 0.139 0.064 0.046 0.027 0.015 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.229 0.433 0.697 0.809 0.831 0.827 0.875 0.898 0.928 0.924 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.213 SDEV 0.151 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.875 NSS 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.999 0.025 0.206 3.088 0.030 -0.092 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.177 0.109 -0.072 110 232 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.77 1.00 1.08 1.85 18.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.092 0.024 -0.025 -0.042 0.028 0.056 0.115 0.049 -0.074 -0.024 PACF -0.092 0.016 -0.022 -0.047 0.021 0.062 0.124 0.071 -0.063 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.112 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.092 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.004 0.007 0.007 0.024 0.066 0.127 0.056 -0.070 -0.017 PACF 0.001 0.004 0.007 0.007 0.023 0.066 0.128 0.058 -0.072 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.110 0.111 0.111 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.007 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.999 0.029 0.340 3.123 0.025 0.400 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.399 0.335 0.310 0.315 0.247 0.250 0.270 0.200 0.095 0.111 PACF 0.399 0.210 0.150 0.143 0.036 0.068 0.094 -0.013 -0.110 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.108 0.124 0.134 0.142 0.150 0.155 0.160 0.165 0.168 0.168 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.232 0.262 0.138 0.110 0.144 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES