RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA558W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA558W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 763 1 Fryday Ridge, oberhalb WIDTH_RING PSME - 763 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1560 4045-12340 1642 19 763 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 763012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1825 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 763031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1933 1934 / 1970 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 763032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 763062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1838 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 1.246 0.457 1.146 4.812 0.191 0.785 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.407 0.619 1.111 3.890 0.208 0.835 3 763021 1823 1983 161 0.765 0.279 0.468 2.914 0.235 0.622 4 763022 1773 1983 211 1.356 0.677 1.069 3.747 0.213 0.816 5 763031 1642 1983 342 0.792 0.429 0.667 3.151 0.187 0.869 6 763032 1649 1983 335 0.808 0.409 0.860 4.594 0.187 0.875 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.527 0.485 0.087 3.134 0.198 0.726 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.496 0.399 0.388 2.883 0.208 0.518 9 763051 1838 1983 146 0.782 0.404 1.176 3.947 0.214 0.791 10 763052 1721 1983 263 0.815 0.283 0.326 2.613 0.174 0.761 11 763061 1770 1983 214 1.065 0.340 0.997 4.171 0.195 0.706 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.874 0.616 0.926 3.783 0.208 0.672 13 763071 1749 1983 235 1.291 0.599 0.783 2.905 0.195 0.841 14 763072 1774 1983 210 1.159 0.615 1.649 6.347 0.241 0.748 15 763081 1756 1983 228 1.129 0.454 1.778 7.187 0.236 0.697 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.259 0.575 2.181 9.517 0.220 0.698 17 763091 1737 1983 247 1.167 0.520 1.330 4.560 0.201 0.811 18 763092 1750 1983 234 1.122 0.389 1.581 6.760 0.178 0.759 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.391 0.511 1.103 3.655 0.177 0.815 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 1.062 0.595 0.503 1.955 0.153 0.935 21 763111 1643 1983 341 0.903 0.570 1.101 3.305 0.145 0.922 22 763112 1679 1983 305 0.913 0.417 1.560 5.451 0.149 0.894 23 763121 1751 1983 233 0.977 0.361 0.561 2.579 0.198 0.724 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.836 0.556 0.961 3.729 0.193 0.683 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.636 0.636 1.149 4.693 0.230 0.693 26 763132 1753 1983 231 1.074 0.330 1.016 5.042 0.229 0.559 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1642 TO 1983 342 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 1.187 0.482 1.018 4.282 0.198 0.760 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.315 0.117 0.484 1.682 0.026 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.144 0.471 1.042 3.836 0.198 0.760 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.479 0.196 0.509 1.679 0.027 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.765 0.279 0.087 1.955 0.145 0.518 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 0.913 0.399 0.667 3.134 0.187 0.697 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.391 0.595 1.176 4.812 0.214 0.835 MAXIMUM VALUE 341 1.874 0.677 2.181 9.517 0.241 0.935 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.482 0.196 0.011 -0.791 3.646 -0.255 0.856 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.255 SERIES 763111 AND 763122 161 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.856 SERIES 763081 AND 763132 228 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.457 0.412 0.401 0.399 0.386 0.405 0.485 0.360 0.414 0.402 SDEV 0.138 0.268 0.259 0.206 0.221 0.220 0.242 0.289 0.225 0.277 SERR 0.079 0.109 0.067 0.034 0.020 0.014 0.014 0.016 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.776 0.794 0.865 0.912 0.928 0.943 0.960 0.936 0.948 0.946 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.271 SDEV 0.251 SERR 0.014 EPS 0.906 NSS 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 1.196 0.357 0.648 3.775 0.161 0.754 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.256 0.123 0.293 99 243 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.48 1.00 1.08 1.56 11.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 221. 54. 146. 193. 247. 342. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.751 0.626 0.615 0.530 0.466 0.463 0.446 0.401 0.407 0.396 PACF 0.751 0.141 0.247 -0.049 0.030 0.089 0.060 -0.010 0.083 0.010 95% C.L. 0.108 0.158 0.185 0.207 0.222 0.234 0.244 0.253 0.261 0.268 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.617 0.621 -0.038 0.266 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 763011 1 1.52808774 0.00809285 0.00000000 0.49261940 2 763012 1 1.92217124 0.00944599 0.00000000 0.55241108 3 763021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00326208 1.02963197 4 763022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00825899 2.23123503 5 763031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00328252 1.34791911 6 763032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00251470 1.22881198 7 763041 1 1.31156886 0.00899296 0.00000000 0.90365672 8 763042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050435 1.54301143 9 763051 1 1.76894653 0.13653901 0.00000000 0.69910157 10 763052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00189337 1.06509590 11 763061 1 0.46848303 0.03681459 0.00000000 1.00650811 12 763062 1 1.76962900 0.02072716 0.00000000 1.40845621 13 763071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00627955 2.03179598 14 763072 1 1.65008461 0.01571543 0.00000000 0.68139058 15 763081 1 1.02825713 0.00942693 0.00000000 0.70793062 16 763082 1 1.35124409 0.01665476 0.00000000 0.85859054 17 763091 1 1.60635734 0.02808925 0.00000000 0.93918413 18 763092 1 1.03404486 0.00700992 0.00000000 0.61576819 19 763101 1 1.46815825 0.01472957 0.00000000 0.97252691 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 763102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00596275 1.85519636 21 763111 1 2.02339315 0.00658348 0.00000000 0.10031365 22 763112 1 1.31887436 0.01681982 0.00000000 0.65937728 23 763121 1 0.79509670 0.01383868 0.00000000 0.74140954 24 763122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00212972 2.00878024 25 763131 1 1.18956554 0.02266395 0.00000000 1.37550604 26 763132 1 0.63760740 0.00558189 0.00000000 0.71636206 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.226 0.395 3.156 0.190 0.417 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.272 0.375 2.845 0.208 0.537 3 763021 1823 1983 161 1.001 0.319 0.754 3.794 0.234 0.550 4 763022 1773 1983 211 1.021 0.357 1.013 4.814 0.211 0.662 5 763031 1642 1983 342 0.986 0.332 0.337 3.995 0.190 0.728 6 763032 1649 1983 335 0.996 0.389 0.773 6.627 0.187 0.773 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.271 0.264 4.144 0.197 0.588 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.266 0.357 2.772 0.206 0.513 9 763051 1838 1983 146 0.999 0.439 1.030 3.991 0.211 0.737 10 763052 1721 1983 263 0.998 0.287 -0.019 2.896 0.174 0.697 11 763061 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.306 1.117 5.170 0.195 0.663 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.233 0.584 3.721 0.207 0.381 13 763071 1749 1983 235 0.998 0.309 0.938 4.300 0.194 0.618 14 763072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.374 1.432 5.810 0.240 0.539 15 763081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.304 0.957 4.329 0.235 0.480 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.000 0.318 1.134 5.621 0.218 0.503 17 763091 1737 1983 247 0.999 0.320 0.856 3.884 0.200 0.672 18 763092 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.259 1.223 5.761 0.177 0.580 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.241 0.639 3.052 0.176 0.549 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 1.072 0.612 2.126 8.170 0.153 0.902 21 763111 1643 1983 341 1.011 0.288 0.711 2.979 0.145 0.754 22 763112 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.263 0.210 3.563 0.149 0.733 23 763121 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.314 0.606 3.281 0.197 0.649 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.295 0.928 3.830 0.192 0.667 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.334 0.656 3.140 0.229 0.591 26 763132 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.272 0.544 3.891 0.228 0.454 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 1.003 0.315 0.767 4.213 0.198 0.613 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.015 0.078 0.445 1.307 0.026 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.305 0.732 3.888 0.197 0.605 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.001 0.061 0.618 1.658 0.024 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.986 0.226 -0.019 2.772 0.145 0.381 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 1.000 0.271 0.395 3.156 0.187 0.537 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.332 1.013 4.814 0.211 0.697 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.072 0.612 2.126 8.170 0.240 0.902 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 763011 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 763012 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 763021 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 763022 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 763031 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 763032 -67 224 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 763041 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 763042 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 763051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 763052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 763061 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 763062 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 763071 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 763072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 763081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 763082 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 763091 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 763092 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 763101 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 763102 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 763111 -67 228 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 763112 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 763121 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 763122 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 763131 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 763132 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 0.999 0.219 0.512 3.361 0.190 0.381 2 763012 1783 1983 201 0.996 0.256 0.374 2.902 0.208 0.485 3 763021 1823 1983 161 0.997 0.309 0.780 3.828 0.234 0.525 4 763022 1773 1983 211 0.996 0.287 0.674 3.477 0.211 0.497 5 763031 1642 1983 342 0.995 0.321 0.863 6.917 0.190 0.688 6 763032 1649 1983 335 0.994 0.376 1.305 10.584 0.187 0.745 7 763041 1793 1983 191 0.997 0.254 0.078 3.684 0.197 0.549 8 763042 1800 1983 184 0.998 0.249 0.345 2.920 0.206 0.460 9 763051 1838 1983 146 0.978 0.303 0.761 3.312 0.210 0.542 10 763052 1721 1983 263 0.998 0.274 -0.082 2.949 0.173 0.668 11 763061 1770 1983 214 0.998 0.288 0.888 4.138 0.195 0.624 12 763062 1810 1983 174 0.999 0.220 0.302 3.167 0.207 0.334 13 763071 1749 1983 235 0.997 0.284 0.647 3.653 0.194 0.567 14 763072 1774 1983 210 0.997 0.360 1.407 5.796 0.240 0.523 15 763081 1756 1983 228 0.999 0.301 0.960 4.379 0.235 0.475 16 763082 1791 1983 193 0.998 0.307 1.096 5.447 0.218 0.475 17 763091 1737 1983 247 0.996 0.270 0.827 4.557 0.200 0.551 18 763092 1750 1983 234 0.997 0.238 1.214 5.851 0.177 0.496 19 763101 1756 1983 228 0.998 0.226 0.648 3.329 0.176 0.482 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 0.977 0.239 0.637 3.358 0.152 0.689 21 763111 1643 1983 341 0.995 0.219 0.827 5.019 0.145 0.589 22 763112 1679 1983 305 0.998 0.249 0.135 3.507 0.149 0.707 23 763121 1751 1983 233 0.993 0.274 0.412 2.913 0.197 0.550 24 763122 1823 1983 161 0.995 0.219 0.385 3.512 0.192 0.442 25 763131 1787 1983 197 0.997 0.317 0.640 3.208 0.229 0.552 26 763132 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.271 0.559 3.933 0.228 0.450 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 0.995 0.274 0.661 4.219 0.198 0.540 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.005 0.042 0.368 1.669 0.026 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 0.997 0.273 0.647 3.583 0.197 0.533 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.003 0.063 0.478 1.245 0.024 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.977 0.219 -0.082 2.902 0.145 0.334 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 0.995 0.239 0.385 3.312 0.187 0.475 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 0.998 0.303 0.863 4.557 0.211 0.589 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.376 1.407 10.584 0.240 0.745 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.356 0.155 0.009 -0.115 2.934 -0.072 0.833 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.072 SERIES 763032 AND 763072 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.833 SERIES 763081 AND 763132 228 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.328 0.589 0.455 0.472 0.338 0.372 0.411 0.408 0.458 0.420 SDEV 0.208 0.151 0.203 0.165 0.217 0.197 0.248 0.254 0.196 0.220 SERR 0.120 0.062 0.052 0.027 0.020 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.668 0.887 0.889 0.933 0.913 0.934 0.947 0.947 0.956 0.950 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.286 SDEV 0.247 SERR 0.014 EPS 0.913 NSS 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.983 0.192 -0.192 4.041 0.156 0.501 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.261 0.112 0.093 98 244 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.37 1.00 1.06 1.43 18.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.500 0.289 0.308 0.183 0.060 0.074 0.053 -0.023 0.014 0.031 PACF 0.500 0.053 0.193 -0.063 -0.065 0.035 -0.005 -0.051 0.049 0.008 95% C.L. 0.108 0.132 0.140 0.147 0.150 0.150 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.151 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.257 0.505 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.333 0.093 0.276 0.127 -0.014 0.059 0.072 -0.046 -0.018 -0.011 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.333 2 0.339 -0.020 3 0.345 -0.116 0.283 4 0.363 -0.123 0.305 -0.063 5 0.360 -0.111 0.300 -0.049 -0.041 6 0.361 -0.110 0.295 -0.047 -0.047 0.016 7 0.360 -0.109 0.296 -0.056 -0.043 0.006 0.029 8 0.362 -0.108 0.294 -0.059 -0.024 -0.001 0.053 -0.065 9 0.363 -0.109 0.294 -0.059 -0.023 -0.004 0.054 -0.069 0.010 10 0.363 -0.112 0.296 -0.059 -0.024 -0.007 0.068 -0.074 0.028 -0.048 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2816.84 2778.77 2780.64 2754.08 2754.70 2756.14 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2758.05 2759.75 2760.29 2762.25 2763.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.333 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.43 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.333 0.111 0.037 0.012 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 763011 1 0.147 0.384 2 763012 1 0.260 0.489 3 763021 1 0.281 0.526 4 763022 1 0.247 0.497 5 763031 1 0.486 0.693 6 763032 1 0.561 0.745 7 763041 1 0.315 0.552 8 763042 1 0.220 0.467 9 763051 1 0.297 0.542 10 763052 1 0.460 0.673 11 763061 1 0.416 0.629 12 763062 1 0.129 0.344 13 763071 1 0.350 0.589 14 763072 1 0.286 0.530 15 763081 1 0.230 0.478 16 763082 1 0.232 0.482 17 763091 1 0.310 0.553 18 763092 1 0.249 0.499 19 763101 1 0.237 0.487 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 763102 1 0.497 0.697 21 763111 1 0.348 0.590 22 763112 1 0.503 0.707 23 763121 1 0.328 0.555 24 763122 1 0.198 0.443 25 763131 1 0.308 0.555 26 763132 1 0.204 0.451 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.312 0.545 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.114 0.100 MEDIAN 1 0.291 0.536 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.118 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.129 0.344 LOWER HINGE 1 0.232 0.482 UPPER HINGE 1 0.350 0.590 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.561 0.745 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 763011 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.202 0.330 3.383 0.223 -0.005 2 763012 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.223 0.218 2.967 0.265 -0.082 3 763021 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.263 0.637 3.590 0.309 -0.043 4 763022 1773 1983 211 1.000 0.249 0.618 3.819 0.268 -0.004 5 763031 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.231 1.626 15.136 0.244 -0.073 6 763032 1649 1983 335 1.000 0.251 3.024 29.357 0.248 -0.090 7 763041 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.212 0.181 3.337 0.248 -0.065 8 763042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.220 0.363 2.986 0.244 -0.027 9 763051 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.254 1.274 5.315 0.265 -0.036 10 763052 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.202 0.351 4.189 0.230 -0.080 11 763061 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.224 0.473 3.664 0.268 -0.114 12 763062 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.207 0.397 2.890 0.242 -0.031 13 763071 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.229 0.642 4.526 0.256 -0.017 14 763072 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.305 1.307 6.101 0.307 -0.038 15 763081 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.264 0.562 4.026 0.287 0.026 16 763082 1791 1983 193 1.000 0.269 0.856 4.852 0.271 0.012 17 763091 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.225 0.701 3.755 0.253 -0.041 18 763092 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.206 0.844 5.480 0.219 -0.011 19 763101 1756 1983 228 1.000 0.197 0.516 3.676 0.215 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 763102 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.171 0.137 3.164 0.206 -0.094 21 763111 1643 1983 341 1.000 0.177 0.978 6.416 0.184 -0.020 22 763112 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.176 0.206 3.964 0.198 -0.053 23 763121 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.228 0.423 3.407 0.255 -0.087 24 763122 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.196 0.205 3.075 0.225 0.018 25 763131 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.264 0.567 3.420 0.279 0.009 26 763132 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.242 0.270 3.458 0.269 0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 228 1.000 0.226 0.681 5.383 0.249 -0.036 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.032 0.608 5.439 0.031 0.040 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.224 0.539 3.715 0.251 -0.034 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.000 0.048 0.514 1.469 0.043 0.070 MINIMUM VALUE 146 1.000 0.171 0.137 2.890 0.184 -0.114 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 193 1.000 0.202 0.330 3.383 0.225 -0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.251 0.844 4.852 0.268 -0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 342 1.000 0.305 3.024 29.357 0.309 0.026 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.482 0.124 0.007 -0.149 2.810 0.166 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.166 SERIES 763031 AND 763051 146 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 763081 AND 763132 228 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. CORR 3. 6. 15. 36. 120. 231. 300. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.476 0.589 0.562 0.518 0.414 0.518 0.559 0.590 0.595 0.509 SDEV 0.090 0.088 0.144 0.110 0.140 0.127 0.150 0.162 0.149 0.150 SERR 0.052 0.036 0.037 0.018 0.013 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.789 0.887 0.925 0.944 0.936 0.963 0.970 0.974 0.974 0.964 NSS 4.1 5.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 YEAR 1950. CORR 325. RBAR 0.396 SDEV 0.207 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.945 NSS 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.991 0.158 0.144 3.274 0.189 -0.097 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.323 0.122 0.014 106 236 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.51 1.01 1.09 1.60 44.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.097 -0.142 0.178 0.024 -0.062 0.031 0.063 -0.118 0.032 0.038 PACF -0.097 -0.153 0.152 0.037 -0.012 0.006 0.049 -0.098 0.024 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.108 0.109 0.111 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.117 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.057 -0.089 -0.136 0.154 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.015 -0.137 0.169 0.036 -0.058 0.032 0.055 -0.111 0.025 0.034 PACF -0.015 -0.137 0.168 0.020 -0.014 0.012 0.038 -0.099 0.034 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.108 0.108 0.110 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.019 -0.015 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1642 1983 342 0.991 0.164 0.187 3.315 0.157 0.293 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.292 0.026 0.167 0.072 -0.019 0.029 0.030 -0.081 0.003 0.017 PACF 0.292 -0.065 0.195 -0.041 -0.016 0.018 0.004 -0.091 0.060 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.108 0.117 0.117 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.091 0.294 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES