RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA559E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA559E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 697 1 Squaw Valley, Lake Tahoe WIDTH_EARLY ABMA - 697 2 United States of America California red fir 2280 3906-11916 1712 198 697 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 697011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1975 1976 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 697021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 697031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 697032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 697091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 697092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 697111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.006 0.486 0.492 2.326 0.173 0.877 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.104 0.593 0.988 3.655 0.169 0.912 3 697021 1751 1983 233 0.907 0.530 0.211 2.050 0.224 0.895 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.071 0.544 0.314 2.405 0.203 0.887 5 697031 1712 1983 272 0.918 0.651 1.067 3.232 0.241 0.912 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.008 0.668 0.799 2.890 0.209 0.918 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.162 0.369 0.192 3.385 0.254 0.547 8 697042 1767 1983 217 1.077 0.329 -0.243 3.113 0.236 0.541 9 697051 1731 1983 253 0.963 0.583 0.495 2.030 0.260 0.874 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.159 0.622 0.278 1.824 0.241 0.869 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.199 0.456 0.184 2.815 0.163 0.855 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.224 0.667 0.516 2.134 0.172 0.924 13 697071 1796 1983 188 0.953 0.646 0.560 2.228 0.217 0.912 14 697072 1787 1983 197 0.869 0.625 0.761 2.565 0.288 0.880 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.443 0.530 -0.175 2.944 0.215 0.741 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.380 0.516 -0.082 2.663 0.190 0.792 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.268 0.762 0.113 1.885 0.181 0.926 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.142 0.609 0.312 2.490 0.207 0.891 19 697101 1766 1983 218 1.196 0.482 -0.269 2.488 0.178 0.853 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 1.103 0.494 0.235 2.351 0.158 0.892 21 697111 1776 1983 208 0.872 0.678 0.926 2.871 0.207 0.922 22 697112 1771 1983 213 1.051 0.716 0.879 2.920 0.198 0.932 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.210 0.376 -0.195 2.722 0.160 0.807 24 697122 1806 1983 178 0.954 0.398 0.485 2.390 0.176 0.850 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1712 TO 1983 272 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.093 0.555 0.368 2.599 0.205 0.850 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.153 0.116 0.399 0.474 0.035 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.090 0.563 0.313 2.527 0.205 0.883 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.239 0.164 0.512 0.628 0.056 0.060 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.869 0.329 -0.269 1.824 0.158 0.541 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.958 0.484 0.148 2.277 0.174 0.852 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.197 0.648 0.660 2.905 0.230 0.912 MAXIMUM VALUE 269 1.443 0.762 1.067 3.655 0.288 0.932 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.751 0.204 0.012 -2.085 6.676 0.031 0.957 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.031 SERIES 697041 AND 697091 207 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.957 SERIES 697071 AND 697072 188 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.298 0.432 0.561 0.501 0.573 0.456 0.335 0.454 SDEV 0.250 0.172 0.182 0.153 0.158 0.183 0.295 0.235 SERR 0.102 0.021 0.014 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.018 0.015 EPS 0.836 0.938 0.968 0.960 0.970 0.953 0.924 0.952 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 1.244 0.583 0.279 2.343 0.153 0.901 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.057 -0.013 0.335 62 210 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.28 1.00 1.03 1.32 45.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 214. 28. 178. 198. 226. 272. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.898 0.862 0.840 0.832 0.817 0.816 0.782 0.778 0.756 0.725 PACF 0.898 0.290 0.168 0.168 0.074 0.134 -0.097 0.084 -0.040 -0.109 95% C.L. 0.121 0.196 0.246 0.285 0.318 0.348 0.375 0.398 0.420 0.440 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.872 0.420 0.050 0.076 0.166 0.055 0.210 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 697011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00700211 1.76477087 2 697012 1 2.12261891 0.01271021 0.00000000 0.42916155 3 697021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00718228 1.74344957 4 697022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00713839 1.92434001 5 697031 1 2.36715269 0.01078931 0.00000000 0.14985061 6 697032 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 697041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027627 1.13291025 8 697042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00255425 1.35518694 9 697051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00667525 1.81052327 10 697052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00810536 2.03081226 11 697061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00600399 1.85323727 12 697062 1 2.43134809 0.00867290 0.00000000 0.07138401 13 697071 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 697072 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 697081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00755459 2.14904213 16 697082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00784502 2.09356546 17 697091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01178323 2.50706577 18 697092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00942714 2.10829830 19 697101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00614019 1.86813092 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 697102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00680838 1.85514450 21 697111 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 697112 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 697121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00546839 1.71877611 24 697122 1 1.50093591 0.01016069 0.00000000 0.26372480 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.012 0.262 0.260 4.603 0.177 0.629 2 697012 1751 1983 233 0.999 0.264 -0.243 4.385 0.168 0.649 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.013 0.317 1.081 5.730 0.226 0.442 4 697022 1746 1983 238 0.999 0.238 0.204 3.475 0.202 0.493 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.008 0.317 0.409 3.105 0.240 0.586 6 697032 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.305 0.480 3.271 0.207 0.646 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.315 0.124 3.307 0.253 0.539 8 697042 1767 1983 217 0.999 0.278 -0.256 3.540 0.235 0.470 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.066 0.518 1.645 6.653 0.260 0.694 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.050 0.528 2.341 11.464 0.241 0.800 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.251 -0.033 3.889 0.162 0.666 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.006 0.339 0.062 2.431 0.171 0.779 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.006 0.245 0.122 3.710 0.216 0.359 14 697072 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.308 0.175 3.477 0.286 0.434 15 697081 1798 1983 186 0.994 0.260 -0.355 3.964 0.214 0.572 16 697082 1803 1983 181 0.995 0.246 -0.482 3.329 0.189 0.589 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.142 1.139 9.137 96.388 0.187 0.558 18 697092 1779 1983 205 0.995 0.259 -0.387 3.763 0.208 0.588 19 697101 1766 1983 218 0.986 0.270 -0.355 3.634 0.177 0.676 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 0.996 0.241 0.241 3.386 0.157 0.664 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.008 0.241 0.923 6.116 0.206 0.277 22 697112 1771 1983 213 0.998 0.279 0.787 4.322 0.197 0.593 23 697121 1799 1983 185 0.997 0.217 0.025 3.243 0.159 0.601 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.001 0.225 0.107 3.215 0.175 0.500 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.011 0.328 0.667 8.100 0.205 0.575 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.033 0.190 1.923 18.894 0.035 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.267 0.149 3.672 0.204 0.589 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.010 0.070 0.771 1.176 0.055 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.986 0.217 -0.482 2.431 0.157 0.277 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.998 0.246 -0.138 3.318 0.176 0.496 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.008 0.316 0.633 4.494 0.231 0.656 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.142 1.139 9.137 96.388 0.286 0.800 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 697011 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 697012 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 697021 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 697022 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 697031 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 697032 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 697041 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 697042 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 697051 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 697052 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 697061 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 697062 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 697071 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 697072 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 697081 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 697082 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 697091 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 697092 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 697101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 697102 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 697111 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 697112 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 697121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 697122 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 0.998 0.232 -0.096 4.718 0.177 0.549 2 697012 1751 1983 233 0.996 0.260 0.544 7.111 0.168 0.607 3 697021 1751 1983 233 0.998 0.288 0.517 3.845 0.226 0.455 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.236 0.174 3.333 0.202 0.483 5 697031 1712 1983 272 0.997 0.289 0.191 3.012 0.240 0.517 6 697032 1734 1983 250 0.998 0.293 0.360 3.156 0.207 0.619 7 697041 1777 1983 207 0.992 0.274 -0.208 3.015 0.253 0.416 8 697042 1767 1983 217 0.998 0.268 -0.229 3.293 0.236 0.416 9 697051 1731 1983 253 0.988 0.328 0.384 3.759 0.260 0.511 10 697052 1737 1950 214 0.986 0.307 0.152 3.157 0.240 0.533 11 697061 1767 1983 217 0.996 0.234 -0.234 3.710 0.162 0.610 12 697062 1785 1983 199 0.989 0.286 0.030 2.379 0.171 0.725 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.238 -0.018 3.612 0.216 0.343 14 697072 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.303 0.098 3.360 0.286 0.412 15 697081 1798 1983 186 0.996 0.238 -0.068 5.286 0.214 0.476 16 697082 1803 1983 181 0.996 0.222 -0.352 3.540 0.190 0.454 17 697091 1772 1983 212 0.995 0.426 4.284 40.066 0.187 0.604 18 697092 1779 1983 205 0.998 0.252 -0.398 3.772 0.208 0.537 19 697101 1766 1983 218 0.996 0.233 -0.212 3.653 0.177 0.555 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 0.996 0.224 0.229 3.058 0.158 0.608 21 697111 1776 1983 208 0.999 0.231 0.898 6.780 0.206 0.246 22 697112 1771 1983 213 0.999 0.273 0.739 4.247 0.197 0.560 23 697121 1799 1983 185 0.997 0.198 -0.035 3.191 0.159 0.533 24 697122 1806 1983 178 0.998 0.210 -0.045 3.434 0.175 0.434 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.996 0.264 0.279 5.354 0.205 0.508 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.004 0.048 0.916 7.478 0.035 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 0.997 0.256 0.064 3.576 0.204 0.525 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.002 0.056 0.523 0.872 0.055 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.986 0.198 -0.398 2.379 0.158 0.246 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.996 0.233 -0.152 3.174 0.176 0.444 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 0.998 0.289 0.372 4.046 0.231 0.582 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.426 4.284 40.066 0.286 0.725 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.430 0.143 0.009 -0.717 3.323 -0.016 0.712 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.016 SERIES 697012 AND 697091 212 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.712 SERIES 697011 AND 697012 219 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.269 0.449 0.496 0.451 0.505 0.432 0.358 0.435 SDEV 0.250 0.153 0.149 0.159 0.169 0.185 0.217 0.211 SERR 0.102 0.019 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.816 0.942 0.959 0.952 0.961 0.948 0.931 0.948 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.988 0.170 -0.185 3.805 0.155 0.402 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.103 0.050 0.124 70 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.35 1.00 1.05 1.40 3.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.400 0.165 0.132 0.113 0.034 0.077 -0.026 0.021 0.086 0.012 PACF 0.400 0.006 0.077 0.040 -0.041 0.079 -0.108 0.070 0.069 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.121 0.139 0.142 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.147 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.161 0.401 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.418 0.211 0.154 0.113 0.013 0.047 -0.051 -0.017 0.063 0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.418 2 0.400 0.044 3 0.397 0.018 0.063 4 0.395 0.018 0.053 0.026 5 0.397 0.021 0.054 0.053 -0.068 6 0.401 0.018 0.051 0.051 -0.091 0.059 7 0.407 0.008 0.057 0.057 -0.089 0.103 -0.109 8 0.412 0.004 0.060 0.054 -0.092 0.102 -0.126 0.042 9 0.408 0.015 0.051 0.063 -0.096 0.097 -0.127 0.006 0.088 10 0.414 0.016 0.043 0.069 -0.103 0.101 -0.123 0.007 0.115 -0.066 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2235.29 2185.09 2186.58 2187.49 2189.31 2190.06 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2191.12 2189.84 2191.36 2191.25 2192.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.418 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.46 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.15 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.418 0.175 0.073 0.030 0.013 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 697011 1 0.303 0.549 2 697012 1 0.373 0.610 3 697021 1 0.239 0.466 4 697022 1 0.239 0.486 5 697031 1 0.273 0.517 6 697032 1 0.388 0.621 7 697041 1 0.183 0.418 8 697042 1 0.178 0.422 9 697051 1 0.268 0.512 10 697052 1 0.301 0.534 11 697061 1 0.383 0.611 12 697062 1 0.541 0.732 13 697071 1 0.119 0.344 14 697072 1 0.181 0.413 15 697081 1 0.229 0.477 16 697082 1 0.207 0.454 17 697091 1 0.582 0.763 18 697092 1 0.297 0.538 19 697101 1 0.344 0.571 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 697102 1 0.375 0.612 21 697111 1 0.065 0.255 22 697112 1 0.357 0.577 23 697121 1 0.290 0.536 24 697122 1 0.208 0.440 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.288 0.519 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.113 MEDIAN 1 0.281 0.526 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.158 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.065 0.255 LOWER HINGE 1 0.208 0.447 UPPER HINGE 1 0.365 0.593 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.582 0.763 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.194 0.106 4.087 0.206 0.028 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.206 0.684 8.810 0.217 0.031 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.255 0.510 5.430 0.263 -0.062 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.206 0.113 3.045 0.237 -0.024 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.248 0.339 3.112 0.285 -0.044 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.230 0.339 3.386 0.252 0.035 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.249 0.022 2.963 0.293 -0.040 8 697042 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.243 -0.107 3.134 0.282 -0.004 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.000 0.282 0.103 3.597 0.316 -0.046 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.000 0.259 0.183 3.411 0.296 -0.079 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.186 -0.139 4.440 0.210 -0.078 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.195 -0.023 2.957 0.224 -0.067 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.223 -0.288 4.603 0.252 -0.011 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.276 0.164 3.596 0.331 -0.045 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.209 -0.002 4.213 0.244 0.019 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.198 -0.161 4.135 0.222 -0.011 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.275 4.855 45.006 0.232 0.146 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.212 -0.267 5.261 0.240 -0.055 19 697101 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.191 0.048 3.033 0.223 -0.084 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.177 0.132 2.996 0.202 -0.025 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.223 1.065 7.535 0.224 0.005 22 697112 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.223 0.485 4.393 0.250 -0.091 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.168 -0.068 3.059 0.194 -0.030 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.188 -0.146 4.061 0.207 -0.052 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.221 0.331 5.844 0.246 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.033 1.013 8.466 0.037 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.218 0.104 3.829 0.238 -0.035 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.054 0.427 1.436 0.053 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 178 1.000 0.168 -0.288 2.957 0.194 -0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.194 -0.088 3.085 0.219 -0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.000 0.248 0.339 4.522 0.273 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.282 4.855 45.006 0.331 0.146 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.499 0.095 0.006 -0.487 3.936 0.130 0.770 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.130 SERIES 697091 AND 697122 178 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.770 SERIES 697011 AND 697012 219 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.466 0.512 0.586 0.597 0.630 0.564 0.408 0.463 SDEV 0.185 0.137 0.111 0.110 0.108 0.108 0.147 0.133 SERR 0.076 0.017 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.913 0.954 0.971 0.973 0.976 0.969 0.943 0.953 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.995 0.155 0.158 3.230 0.186 -0.118 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.118 0.047 0.086 80 192 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.39 1.00 1.09 1.48 4.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.117 -0.081 0.030 0.064 -0.079 0.119 -0.104 -0.022 0.102 -0.032 PACF -0.117 -0.096 0.008 0.063 -0.061 0.115 -0.095 -0.027 0.087 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.121 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.023 -0.129 -0.097 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 -0.093 0.029 0.060 -0.060 0.100 -0.095 -0.023 0.100 -0.027 PACF -0.012 -0.094 0.027 0.053 -0.054 0.110 -0.110 -0.004 0.085 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.995 0.166 -0.207 3.736 0.154 0.381 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.379 0.097 0.081 0.073 -0.002 0.053 -0.053 -0.010 0.071 -0.001 PACF 0.379 -0.055 0.074 0.023 -0.046 0.081 -0.126 0.067 0.062 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.121 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.147 0.380 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 6.15 MINUTES