RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA559I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA559I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 697 1 Squaw Valley, Lake Tahoe DENSITY_EARLY ABMA - 697 2 United States of America California red fir 2280 3906-11916 1712 198 697 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 697011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1975 1976 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 697021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 697031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 697032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 697091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 697092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 697111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 3.207 0.157 0.106 3.035 0.036 0.548 2 697012 1751 1983 233 3.284 0.181 0.107 4.584 0.040 0.535 3 697021 1751 1983 233 3.397 0.286 0.155 3.713 0.041 0.793 4 697022 1746 1983 238 3.262 0.201 0.122 4.088 0.039 0.615 5 697031 1712 1983 272 3.483 0.197 0.592 3.557 0.045 0.447 6 697032 1734 1983 250 3.501 0.318 0.912 7.350 0.045 0.721 7 697041 1777 1983 207 3.293 0.206 0.697 4.381 0.041 0.605 8 697042 1767 1983 217 3.349 0.186 0.076 2.984 0.043 0.539 9 697051 1731 1983 253 4.213 0.419 1.218 6.052 0.060 0.574 10 697052 1737 1950 214 3.896 0.310 0.636 3.457 0.052 0.628 11 697061 1767 1983 217 3.882 0.334 0.238 3.015 0.047 0.733 12 697062 1785 1983 199 4.001 0.262 0.731 5.767 0.046 0.575 13 697071 1796 1983 188 3.399 0.247 1.297 8.478 0.049 0.485 14 697072 1787 1983 197 3.566 0.196 1.110 5.373 0.041 0.496 15 697081 1798 1983 186 3.502 0.242 4.063 29.004 0.045 0.312 16 697082 1803 1983 181 3.461 0.277 1.482 6.902 0.046 0.619 17 697091 1772 1983 212 3.448 0.189 0.090 2.555 0.039 0.594 18 697092 1779 1983 205 3.469 0.186 0.360 3.642 0.038 0.534 19 697101 1766 1983 218 3.730 0.205 0.432 4.425 0.036 0.600 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 3.870 0.299 0.071 3.423 0.043 0.716 21 697111 1776 1983 208 3.748 0.341 1.574 11.814 0.055 0.538 22 697112 1771 1983 213 3.791 0.433 0.688 5.553 0.046 0.820 23 697121 1799 1983 185 3.675 0.229 0.319 2.704 0.044 0.571 24 697122 1806 1983 178 3.666 0.335 0.854 4.425 0.047 0.714 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1712 TO 1983 272 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 3.587 0.260 0.747 5.845 0.044 0.596 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.260 0.076 0.848 5.375 0.006 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 3.501 0.245 0.614 4.403 0.045 0.584 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.372 0.117 0.872 2.470 0.006 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 178 3.207 0.157 0.071 2.555 0.036 0.312 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 3.398 0.197 0.138 3.440 0.040 0.537 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 3.769 0.314 1.011 5.910 0.047 0.671 MAXIMUM VALUE 269 4.213 0.433 4.063 29.004 0.060 0.820 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.173 0.233 0.014 -0.350 2.841 -0.533 0.631 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.533 SERIES 697052 AND 697112 180 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.631 SERIES 697082 AND 697091 181 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.211 0.146 0.267 0.250 0.250 0.248 0.166 0.193 SDEV 0.088 0.325 0.222 0.171 0.198 0.198 0.243 0.194 SERR 0.036 0.040 0.017 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.762 0.772 0.895 0.889 0.889 0.888 0.827 0.850 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 3.576 0.145 0.943 4.849 0.030 0.535 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.219 0.209 -0.414 70 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.41 1.00 1.07 1.48 5.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 214. 28. 178. 198. 226. 272. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.533 0.438 0.336 0.337 0.328 0.322 0.339 0.339 0.329 0.312 PACF 0.533 0.215 0.056 0.126 0.101 0.077 0.109 0.082 0.056 0.043 95% C.L. 0.121 0.152 0.169 0.179 0.188 0.196 0.204 0.212 0.220 0.227 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.323 0.417 0.219 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 697011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103298 3.31655097 2 697012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018691 3.30603147 3 697021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00281793 3.72419238 4 697022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00177338 3.47389436 5 697031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040759 3.42820501 6 697032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00272191 3.16483712 7 697041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073163 3.21642232 8 697042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017873 3.32996535 9 697051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00366560 3.74790692 10 697052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040434 3.93949461 11 697061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00339354 3.51176262 12 697062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00147733 3.85347342 13 697071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046661 3.35489488 14 697072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118589 3.44823098 15 697081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008032 3.49421048 16 697082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00238330 3.24416947 17 697091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118400 3.32474351 18 697092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105815 3.36261272 19 697101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038190 3.77154326 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 697102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00166636 3.68545818 21 697111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00258627 3.47932386 22 697112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00326960 3.44090390 23 697121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031341 3.70368743 24 697122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00475977 3.23978662 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.046 0.273 3.291 0.036 0.493 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.055 0.175 4.507 0.040 0.533 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.064 0.319 4.783 0.041 0.640 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.049 0.454 5.164 0.038 0.427 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.056 0.689 3.768 0.046 0.435 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.072 1.948 10.306 0.045 0.561 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.061 0.552 4.060 0.041 0.591 8 697042 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.055 0.087 2.916 0.043 0.537 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.000 0.076 1.734 7.457 0.060 0.285 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.000 0.079 0.653 3.474 0.052 0.622 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.066 0.740 5.157 0.047 0.548 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.062 1.275 9.541 0.046 0.525 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.072 1.219 8.096 0.048 0.480 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.052 1.386 6.395 0.041 0.426 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.069 4.113 29.413 0.045 0.310 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.072 2.528 15.594 0.046 0.528 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.051 -0.082 2.871 0.038 0.541 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.051 0.558 3.549 0.038 0.495 19 697101 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.054 0.265 4.151 0.036 0.593 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.074 1.041 6.185 0.043 0.673 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.079 1.522 10.801 0.056 0.404 22 697112 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.102 0.769 5.096 0.046 0.769 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.062 0.368 2.721 0.044 0.566 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.062 0.883 4.612 0.047 0.438 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.064 0.978 6.829 0.044 0.518 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.013 0.925 5.727 0.006 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.062 0.715 4.939 0.045 0.530 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.018 0.987 4.118 0.006 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 178 1.000 0.046 -0.082 2.721 0.036 0.285 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.055 0.344 3.658 0.040 0.436 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.000 0.072 1.331 7.776 0.046 0.579 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.102 4.113 29.413 0.060 0.769 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 697011 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 697012 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 697021 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 697022 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 697031 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 697032 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 697041 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 697042 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 697051 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 697052 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 697061 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 697062 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 697071 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 697072 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 697081 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 697082 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 697091 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 697092 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 697101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 697102 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 697111 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 697112 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 697121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 697122 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.042 0.229 3.296 0.036 0.391 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.050 0.577 5.205 0.040 0.437 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.058 0.456 5.130 0.041 0.560 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.047 0.630 5.861 0.038 0.393 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.051 0.701 3.809 0.046 0.328 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.067 1.790 10.131 0.045 0.512 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.053 0.777 5.884 0.041 0.461 8 697042 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.050 0.229 3.190 0.043 0.434 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.000 0.071 1.899 8.460 0.060 0.207 10 697052 1737 1950 214 0.999 0.061 0.802 4.258 0.052 0.370 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.062 0.842 5.164 0.047 0.477 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.061 1.379 9.897 0.046 0.500 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.063 1.668 8.984 0.048 0.332 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.051 1.360 6.187 0.041 0.401 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.069 4.223 30.619 0.045 0.303 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.067 2.313 13.739 0.046 0.459 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.045 0.004 2.787 0.038 0.413 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.046 0.406 3.472 0.038 0.390 19 697101 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.044 0.096 3.966 0.036 0.408 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 0.999 0.052 0.366 4.184 0.043 0.392 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.071 2.807 21.237 0.056 0.244 22 697112 1771 1983 213 0.999 0.072 1.186 8.477 0.046 0.570 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.055 0.165 2.647 0.044 0.430 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.057 0.809 4.795 0.047 0.358 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.057 1.071 7.557 0.044 0.407 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.009 0.994 6.445 0.006 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.056 0.789 5.185 0.045 0.405 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.015 1.137 4.843 0.006 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.999 0.042 0.004 2.647 0.036 0.207 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.050 0.386 3.887 0.040 0.364 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.000 0.065 1.523 8.730 0.046 0.460 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.072 4.223 30.619 0.060 0.570 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.210 0.120 0.007 0.729 3.764 -0.043 0.635 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.043 SERIES 697052 AND 697112 180 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.635 SERIES 697081 AND 697082 181 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.157 0.176 0.269 0.238 0.275 0.277 0.188 0.208 SDEV 0.106 0.230 0.204 0.171 0.155 0.176 0.202 0.175 SERR 0.043 0.028 0.016 0.010 0.009 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.691 0.809 0.896 0.882 0.901 0.902 0.847 0.861 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.032 0.599 3.647 0.030 0.300 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.193 0.118 -0.075 96 176 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.64 1.00 1.07 1.71 15.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.299 0.145 0.081 0.034 -0.034 -0.041 0.038 0.046 0.039 0.087 PACF 0.299 0.061 0.024 -0.004 -0.056 -0.023 0.070 0.031 0.013 0.066 95% C.L. 0.121 0.132 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.136 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.093 0.299 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.214 0.006 -0.056 -0.084 -0.175 -0.162 -0.103 -0.012 0.009 0.066 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.214 2 0.223 -0.042 3 0.221 -0.031 -0.051 4 0.218 -0.033 -0.036 -0.064 5 0.208 -0.038 -0.041 -0.031 -0.153 6 0.192 -0.042 -0.046 -0.035 -0.131 -0.106 7 0.184 -0.051 -0.048 -0.038 -0.134 -0.093 -0.068 8 0.184 -0.051 -0.049 -0.038 -0.134 -0.094 -0.067 -0.006 9 0.184 -0.053 -0.051 -0.041 -0.135 -0.095 -0.068 -0.001 -0.026 10 0.184 -0.053 -0.050 -0.039 -0.132 -0.094 -0.067 0.000 -0.030 0.024 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1225.54 1214.79 1216.30 1217.61 1218.49 1214.05 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1212.95 1213.70 1215.69 1217.51 1219.36 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.214 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.58 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.80 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.214 0.046 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 697011 1 0.173 0.393 2 697012 1 0.217 0.438 3 697021 1 0.330 0.562 4 697022 1 0.165 0.405 5 697031 1 0.112 0.330 6 697032 1 0.280 0.521 7 697041 1 0.226 0.473 8 697042 1 0.192 0.438 9 697051 1 0.051 0.210 10 697052 1 0.153 0.374 11 697061 1 0.228 0.477 12 697062 1 0.253 0.501 13 697071 1 0.115 0.336 14 697072 1 0.163 0.404 15 697081 1 0.101 0.304 16 697082 1 0.213 0.461 17 697091 1 0.192 0.420 18 697092 1 0.171 0.392 19 697101 1 0.231 0.422 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 697102 1 0.220 0.396 21 697111 1 0.061 0.246 22 697112 1 0.328 0.573 23 697121 1 0.205 0.435 24 697122 1 0.155 0.366 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.189 0.412 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.072 0.088 MEDIAN 1 0.192 0.413 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.073 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.051 0.210 LOWER HINGE 1 0.154 0.370 UPPER HINGE 1 0.227 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.330 0.573 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.038 0.134 3.142 0.043 -0.056 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.045 0.728 5.874 0.050 -0.077 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.048 0.492 6.289 0.052 -0.078 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.043 0.715 6.585 0.045 -0.017 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.048 0.671 3.744 0.053 -0.017 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.057 1.751 10.403 0.059 -0.062 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.047 0.906 7.048 0.049 -0.012 8 697042 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.045 0.326 3.073 0.052 -0.011 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.000 0.070 1.856 8.705 0.066 -0.021 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.000 0.056 0.607 4.502 0.062 -0.042 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.054 1.079 6.953 0.058 -0.011 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.053 0.695 5.942 0.059 -0.026 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.059 1.717 9.932 0.058 -0.019 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.046 0.970 5.553 0.048 0.007 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.066 4.821 39.046 0.052 0.029 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.059 2.615 19.080 0.060 -0.013 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.041 0.126 3.023 0.048 -0.064 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.043 0.336 3.799 0.047 -0.056 19 697101 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.040 0.072 3.755 0.046 -0.116 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.047 0.613 4.504 0.053 -0.111 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.069 2.567 19.460 0.064 -0.007 22 697112 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.059 1.783 12.513 0.060 -0.012 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.049 0.231 3.169 0.055 -0.055 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.053 1.183 6.250 0.054 -0.048 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.051 1.125 8.431 0.054 -0.037 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.009 1.074 7.920 0.006 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.049 0.722 6.096 0.053 -0.023 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.013 1.320 5.541 0.010 0.047 MINIMUM VALUE 178 1.000 0.038 0.072 3.023 0.043 -0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.045 0.414 3.777 0.049 -0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.000 0.058 1.734 9.318 0.059 -0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.070 4.821 39.046 0.066 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.264 0.098 0.006 0.785 4.236 0.023 0.655 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.023 SERIES 697011 AND 697051 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.655 SERIES 697081 AND 697082 181 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.224 0.265 0.339 0.287 0.317 0.338 0.287 0.266 SDEV 0.106 0.154 0.161 0.147 0.129 0.141 0.159 0.151 SERR 0.043 0.019 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.777 0.877 0.923 0.906 0.918 0.925 0.906 0.895 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.031 0.340 3.113 0.036 -0.087 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.161 0.092 -0.056 101 171 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.02 1.00 1.10 2.12 23.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.087 0.041 0.058 0.056 -0.011 -0.010 0.057 0.050 -0.006 0.055 PACF -0.087 0.033 0.064 0.066 -0.005 -0.020 0.048 0.060 0.003 0.045 95% C.L. 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.087 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.039 0.067 0.061 -0.007 -0.006 0.061 0.056 0.003 0.064 PACF 0.003 0.039 0.067 0.059 -0.012 -0.015 0.054 0.055 0.002 0.054 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.032 0.520 3.510 0.031 0.229 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.228 0.102 0.097 0.077 0.012 0.012 0.073 0.073 0.037 0.091 PACF 0.228 0.052 0.067 0.040 -0.024 0.002 0.067 0.045 0.006 0.070 95% C.L. 0.121 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.132 0.132 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.055 0.228 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES