RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA559W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA559W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 697 1 Squaw Valley, Lake Tahoe WIDTH_RING ABMA - 697 2 United States of America California red fir 2280 3906-11916 1712 198 697 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 697011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1975 1976 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 697021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 697031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 697032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 697091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 697092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 697111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.196 0.556 0.487 2.389 0.156 0.882 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.335 0.732 1.194 4.232 0.158 0.921 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.084 0.615 0.259 2.153 0.202 0.900 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.282 0.637 0.364 2.458 0.191 0.886 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.103 0.738 1.100 3.388 0.212 0.912 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.210 0.791 0.879 3.052 0.193 0.921 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.511 0.468 0.375 3.792 0.229 0.580 8 697042 1767 1983 217 1.414 0.411 -0.346 3.288 0.203 0.622 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.198 0.696 0.522 2.060 0.232 0.880 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.453 0.776 0.278 1.754 0.217 0.885 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.450 0.530 0.253 2.802 0.144 0.862 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.519 0.841 0.593 2.217 0.160 0.929 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.190 0.776 0.588 2.319 0.196 0.912 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.095 0.737 0.717 2.478 0.235 0.895 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.717 0.608 -0.005 2.891 0.199 0.742 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.654 0.596 -0.084 2.711 0.176 0.796 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.526 0.905 0.147 1.908 0.165 0.929 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.346 0.709 0.353 2.512 0.187 0.894 19 697101 1766 1983 218 1.465 0.572 -0.304 2.463 0.167 0.854 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 1.361 0.588 0.154 2.272 0.152 0.894 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.125 0.843 0.886 2.745 0.187 0.932 22 697112 1771 1983 213 1.383 0.965 0.969 2.954 0.173 0.938 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.693 0.540 0.161 2.921 0.157 0.824 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.217 0.489 0.723 3.126 0.161 0.851 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1712 TO 1983 272 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.355 0.672 0.428 2.703 0.185 0.860 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.190 0.143 0.411 0.587 0.027 0.092 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.354 0.666 0.369 2.612 0.187 0.890 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.291 0.212 0.562 0.708 0.042 0.064 MINIMUM VALUE 178 1.084 0.411 -0.346 1.754 0.144 0.580 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.197 0.564 0.157 2.295 0.161 0.852 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.488 0.776 0.720 3.003 0.203 0.917 MAXIMUM VALUE 269 1.717 0.965 1.194 4.232 0.235 0.938 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.753 0.216 0.013 -2.338 7.790 -0.040 0.962 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.040 SERIES 697041 AND 697091 207 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.962 SERIES 697071 AND 697072 188 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.371 0.418 0.553 0.506 0.567 0.432 0.333 0.468 SDEV 0.202 0.180 0.195 0.144 0.160 0.188 0.304 0.234 SERR 0.082 0.022 0.015 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.018 0.015 EPS 0.876 0.934 0.967 0.961 0.969 0.948 0.923 0.954 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 1.524 0.692 0.241 2.271 0.143 0.903 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.018 -0.004 0.397 66 206 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.35 1.01 1.06 1.41 39.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 214. 28. 178. 198. 226. 272. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.900 0.862 0.839 0.832 0.820 0.823 0.788 0.780 0.756 0.726 PACF 0.900 0.279 0.163 0.174 0.089 0.160 -0.106 0.063 -0.056 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.121 0.196 0.246 0.285 0.318 0.348 0.376 0.399 0.421 0.441 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.874 0.433 0.038 0.058 0.160 0.048 0.241 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 697011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00806624 2.07032228 2 697012 1 2.64190722 0.01553765 0.00000000 0.63047934 3 697021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00825218 2.04589391 4 697022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00835002 2.27992868 5 697031 1 2.68047380 0.01098630 0.00000000 0.24629360 6 697032 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 697041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078099 1.42940533 8 697042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00371537 1.81939960 9 697051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00798759 2.21244788 10 697052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01028341 2.55845737 11 697061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00699849 2.21325016 12 697062 1 2.96122718 0.01129111 0.00000000 0.34717017 13 697071 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 697072 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 697081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00883698 2.54281712 16 697082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00908221 2.48007178 17 697091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01393825 2.99130130 18 697092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01102962 2.47620893 19 697101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00727978 2.26213598 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 697102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00818056 2.26499748 21 697111 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 697112 1 3.62707806 0.01137741 0.00000000 0.02696835 23 697121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00786160 2.42383194 24 697122 1 1.72091126 0.01396735 0.00000000 0.58691996 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.009 0.232 0.097 4.024 0.159 0.629 2 697012 1751 1983 233 0.999 0.253 -0.360 4.147 0.156 0.682 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.007 0.283 0.745 4.030 0.203 0.523 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.001 0.222 0.177 3.155 0.190 0.481 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.004 0.286 0.279 2.898 0.211 0.607 6 697032 1734 1983 250 0.998 0.290 0.478 3.013 0.191 0.661 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.303 0.196 3.605 0.228 0.566 8 697042 1767 1983 217 0.999 0.256 -0.347 3.866 0.202 0.526 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.058 0.483 1.710 7.457 0.231 0.721 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.059 0.567 2.871 14.244 0.216 0.817 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.001 0.238 0.190 3.953 0.143 0.673 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.005 0.326 0.088 2.500 0.160 0.789 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.004 0.223 -0.083 3.457 0.195 0.364 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.001 0.270 0.019 3.393 0.233 0.487 15 697081 1798 1983 186 0.996 0.234 -0.240 3.853 0.198 0.528 16 697082 1803 1983 181 0.996 0.238 -0.386 3.372 0.175 0.607 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.069 0.546 5.456 40.325 0.168 0.722 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.245 -0.276 3.588 0.188 0.590 19 697101 1766 1983 218 0.987 0.261 -0.224 3.658 0.166 0.674 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 0.995 0.229 0.239 3.320 0.151 0.654 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.007 0.223 0.843 5.690 0.184 0.349 22 697112 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.268 0.958 5.024 0.172 0.677 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.216 0.007 3.096 0.156 0.611 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.211 0.029 3.070 0.161 0.529 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.008 0.288 0.519 5.781 0.185 0.603 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.021 0.100 1.281 7.726 0.027 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.001 0.255 0.137 3.631 0.186 0.609 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.007 0.058 0.765 0.851 0.042 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.987 0.211 -0.386 2.500 0.143 0.349 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.999 0.231 -0.154 3.237 0.160 0.527 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.006 0.288 0.611 4.089 0.202 0.676 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.069 0.567 5.456 40.325 0.233 0.817 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 697011 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 697012 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 697021 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 697022 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 697031 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 697032 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 697041 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 697042 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 697051 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 697052 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 697061 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 697062 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 697071 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 697072 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 697081 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 697082 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 697091 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 697092 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 697101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 697102 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 697111 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 697112 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 697121 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 697122 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 0.998 0.209 -0.105 4.321 0.159 0.551 2 697012 1751 1983 233 0.996 0.247 0.521 6.395 0.156 0.640 3 697021 1751 1983 233 0.998 0.266 0.486 3.486 0.203 0.522 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.220 0.137 3.098 0.190 0.473 5 697031 1712 1983 272 0.997 0.267 0.149 2.897 0.211 0.553 6 697032 1734 1983 250 0.998 0.280 0.366 2.906 0.191 0.635 7 697041 1777 1983 207 0.993 0.266 -0.109 3.204 0.228 0.454 8 697042 1767 1983 217 0.998 0.250 -0.196 3.666 0.203 0.493 9 697051 1731 1983 253 0.989 0.305 0.418 3.989 0.231 0.544 10 697052 1737 1950 214 0.986 0.292 0.255 3.572 0.216 0.556 11 697061 1767 1983 217 0.997 0.219 -0.086 3.907 0.143 0.613 12 697062 1785 1983 199 0.991 0.277 -0.003 2.359 0.159 0.744 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.220 -0.137 3.454 0.195 0.360 14 697072 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.266 -0.053 3.310 0.233 0.473 15 697081 1798 1983 186 0.998 0.216 -0.089 4.819 0.198 0.442 16 697082 1803 1983 181 0.996 0.211 -0.350 3.529 0.175 0.469 17 697091 1772 1983 212 0.995 0.311 1.689 11.466 0.167 0.700 18 697092 1779 1983 205 0.998 0.235 -0.354 3.658 0.188 0.540 19 697101 1766 1983 218 0.997 0.219 -0.236 3.417 0.167 0.545 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 0.997 0.211 0.259 2.970 0.151 0.592 21 697111 1776 1983 208 0.999 0.214 0.829 6.333 0.184 0.323 22 697112 1771 1983 213 0.998 0.256 0.819 4.382 0.172 0.641 23 697121 1799 1983 185 0.998 0.203 -0.121 3.314 0.156 0.552 24 697122 1806 1983 178 0.998 0.201 -0.061 3.239 0.161 0.482 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.996 0.244 0.168 4.071 0.185 0.537 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.004 0.034 0.464 1.846 0.027 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 0.998 0.241 -0.028 3.507 0.186 0.544 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.002 0.051 0.507 0.934 0.043 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 178 0.986 0.201 -0.354 2.359 0.143 0.323 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.996 0.215 -0.115 3.222 0.160 0.473 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 0.998 0.266 0.392 4.155 0.203 0.603 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.311 1.689 11.466 0.233 0.744 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.436 0.138 0.008 -0.580 2.923 0.046 0.721 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.046 SERIES 697012 AND 697091 212 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.721 SERIES 697071 AND 697072 188 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.344 0.441 0.489 0.445 0.477 0.421 0.374 0.452 SDEV 0.196 0.166 0.147 0.162 0.181 0.190 0.222 0.207 SERR 0.080 0.020 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.863 0.940 0.957 0.951 0.956 0.946 0.935 0.951 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.989 0.161 -0.181 3.643 0.145 0.422 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.106 0.050 0.114 57 215 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.42 1.00 1.06 1.49 2.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.420 0.169 0.125 0.102 0.023 0.077 -0.012 0.022 0.088 0.007 PACF 0.420 -0.009 0.069 0.033 -0.047 0.091 -0.098 0.066 0.072 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.121 0.141 0.144 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.178 0.421 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.455 0.219 0.156 0.108 0.014 0.045 -0.037 -0.002 0.075 0.004 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.455 2 0.448 0.015 3 0.447 -0.014 0.065 4 0.446 -0.014 0.059 0.014 5 0.447 -0.010 0.058 0.044 -0.065 6 0.451 -0.013 0.054 0.044 -0.094 0.065 7 0.458 -0.022 0.058 0.050 -0.095 0.110 -0.100 8 0.464 -0.029 0.064 0.047 -0.099 0.111 -0.127 0.059 9 0.459 -0.018 0.054 0.055 -0.103 0.106 -0.124 0.020 0.085 10 0.466 -0.016 0.044 0.064 -0.111 0.110 -0.120 0.018 0.123 -0.084 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2198.46 2137.35 2139.29 2140.14 2142.08 2142.93 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2143.79 2143.06 2144.11 2144.14 2144.23 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.455 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.71 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 126.12 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.455 0.207 0.094 0.043 0.020 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 697011 1 0.306 0.551 2 697012 1 0.422 0.644 3 697021 1 0.290 0.529 4 697022 1 0.228 0.475 5 697031 1 0.309 0.553 6 697032 1 0.411 0.639 7 697041 1 0.213 0.457 8 697042 1 0.250 0.500 9 697051 1 0.302 0.545 10 697052 1 0.319 0.557 11 697061 1 0.380 0.614 12 697062 1 0.569 0.753 13 697071 1 0.132 0.362 14 697072 1 0.232 0.473 15 697081 1 0.200 0.444 16 697082 1 0.220 0.469 17 697091 1 0.602 0.772 18 697092 1 0.297 0.541 19 697101 1 0.329 0.559 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 697102 1 0.356 0.595 21 697111 1 0.111 0.333 22 697112 1 0.425 0.646 23 697121 1 0.308 0.555 24 697122 1 0.242 0.486 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.311 0.544 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.118 0.104 MEDIAN 1 0.304 0.548 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.138 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.111 0.333 LOWER HINGE 1 0.230 0.474 UPPER HINGE 1 0.368 0.604 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.602 0.772 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 697011 1765 1983 219 1.000 0.174 0.136 3.743 0.187 0.027 2 697012 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.189 0.361 6.011 0.199 0.071 3 697021 1751 1983 233 1.000 0.226 0.386 4.110 0.237 -0.053 4 697022 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.193 0.037 2.891 0.223 -0.025 5 697031 1712 1983 272 1.000 0.222 0.330 2.997 0.254 -0.037 6 697032 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.215 0.357 3.416 0.233 0.040 7 697041 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.237 0.156 3.275 0.273 -0.030 8 697042 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.216 -0.058 3.191 0.246 0.002 9 697051 1731 1983 253 1.000 0.256 0.367 4.034 0.282 -0.047 10 697052 1737 1950 214 1.000 0.243 0.466 3.990 0.274 -0.063 11 697061 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.173 -0.221 5.787 0.189 -0.047 12 697062 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.182 -0.103 2.923 0.211 -0.034 13 697071 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.205 -0.383 4.786 0.230 -0.014 14 697072 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.234 -0.106 3.831 0.282 -0.049 15 697081 1798 1983 186 1.000 0.193 -0.065 4.067 0.226 0.027 16 697082 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.186 -0.223 4.190 0.206 -0.005 17 697091 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.198 1.082 5.307 0.213 -0.010 18 697092 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.198 -0.266 5.079 0.219 -0.042 19 697101 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.181 0.064 3.009 0.208 -0.080 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 697102 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.170 0.201 2.933 0.192 -0.035 21 697111 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.202 1.035 7.250 0.206 0.004 22 697112 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.196 0.303 3.334 0.222 -0.068 23 697121 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.168 -0.098 3.459 0.190 0.006 24 697122 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.175 -0.324 4.527 0.195 -0.040 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 1.000 0.201 0.143 4.089 0.225 -0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 23 0.000 0.025 0.376 1.129 0.030 0.037 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.197 0.100 3.910 0.221 -0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.037 0.464 1.424 0.040 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 178 1.000 0.168 -0.383 2.891 0.187 -0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.182 -0.105 3.233 0.202 -0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.000 0.219 0.359 4.657 0.242 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 272 1.000 0.256 1.082 7.250 0.282 0.071 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.512 0.087 0.005 -0.136 3.464 0.252 0.808 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.252 SERIES 697031 AND 697121 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.808 SERIES 697071 AND 697072 188 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.07 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 171. 276. 276. 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.516 0.501 0.583 0.596 0.617 0.570 0.437 0.471 SDEV 0.159 0.148 0.111 0.110 0.109 0.108 0.152 0.133 SERR 0.065 0.018 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.928 0.952 0.970 0.973 0.975 0.969 0.949 0.955 NSS 12.0 19.8 23.5 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.996 0.146 0.140 3.146 0.174 -0.103 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.111 0.043 0.078 79 193 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.36 1.00 1.09 1.45 5.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.103 -0.082 -0.004 0.062 -0.088 0.124 -0.095 -0.019 0.099 -0.054 PACF -0.103 -0.093 -0.023 0.052 -0.079 0.119 -0.086 -0.020 0.095 -0.067 95% C.L. 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.020 -0.113 -0.094 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 -0.094 -0.006 0.054 -0.071 0.108 -0.086 -0.018 0.095 -0.051 PACF -0.010 -0.094 -0.008 0.045 -0.072 0.117 -0.100 0.000 0.090 -0.078 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1983 272 0.996 0.159 -0.235 3.560 0.143 0.412 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.411 0.113 0.060 0.056 -0.009 0.055 -0.040 -0.005 0.058 -0.021 PACF 0.411 -0.067 0.046 0.025 -0.052 0.095 -0.121 0.068 0.050 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.121 0.140 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.173 0.412 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.57 MINUTES