RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA560I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA560I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 702 1 Yosemite Park, E Eingang DENSITY_EARLY PICO - 702 2 United States of America lodgepole pine 3000 3748-11915 1513 1983 - 702 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 702012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 702022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1914 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 702031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 702041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 702052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 702071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1813 1813 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 702072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1815 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 702082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1731 1731 / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 702091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 702121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1817 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 702122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1818 1818 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 3.947 0.275 0.984 4.754 0.046 0.618 2 702012 1790 1983 194 3.776 0.453 0.883 3.718 0.045 0.847 3 702021 1517 1983 467 3.946 0.273 0.314 3.381 0.034 0.795 4 702022 1521 1983 463 3.848 0.246 0.843 4.457 0.037 0.646 5 702031 1607 1983 377 4.085 0.328 0.926 4.141 0.040 0.773 6 702032 1591 1983 393 4.191 0.288 0.488 2.848 0.044 0.622 7 702041 1606 1983 378 3.564 0.290 1.861 9.109 0.040 0.731 8 702042 1604 1983 380 3.649 0.316 0.820 4.126 0.039 0.810 9 702051 1573 1983 411 4.247 0.290 -0.093 4.624 0.044 0.635 10 702052 1638 1983 346 4.130 0.391 0.032 2.372 0.040 0.851 11 702071 1513 1983 471 3.627 0.278 0.746 4.145 0.038 0.757 12 702072 1513 1983 471 3.485 0.311 1.237 6.946 0.042 0.777 13 702081 1655 1983 329 3.512 0.245 -0.028 2.825 0.040 0.722 14 702082 1619 1983 365 3.823 0.299 -0.205 2.332 0.036 0.822 15 702091 1561 1983 423 3.584 0.270 0.871 4.225 0.046 0.634 16 702092 1552 1983 432 3.679 0.235 0.833 5.812 0.042 0.594 17 702101 1779 1983 205 3.492 0.250 0.087 2.202 0.038 0.786 18 702102 1738 1983 246 3.858 0.233 0.415 3.375 0.037 0.711 19 702111 1786 1983 198 3.713 0.235 0.289 2.704 0.039 0.673 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 3.684 0.360 2.773 13.779 0.045 0.754 21 702121 1607 1983 377 3.654 0.253 0.614 4.387 0.041 0.671 22 702122 1586 1983 398 3.759 0.344 2.815 19.258 0.038 0.838 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1513 TO 1983 471 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 3.784 0.294 0.796 5.251 0.040 0.730 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.227 0.055 0.808 4.067 0.003 0.083 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 376 3.736 0.283 0.783 4.143 0.040 0.742 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 175 0.319 0.066 0.637 1.905 0.006 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 167 3.485 0.233 -0.205 2.202 0.034 0.594 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 3.627 0.250 0.289 2.848 0.038 0.646 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 421 3.946 0.316 0.926 4.754 0.044 0.795 MAXIMUM VALUE 470 4.247 0.453 2.815 19.258 0.046 0.851 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.319 0.245 0.016 -0.790 3.715 -0.440 0.751 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.440 SERIES 702101 AND 702102 205 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.751 SERIES 702081 AND 702082 329 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.580 -0.037 0.462 0.165 0.162 0.158 0.182 0.228 0.314 0.276 SDEV 0.000 0.163 0.213 0.264 0.277 0.282 0.237 0.212 0.166 0.196 SERR 0.000 0.066 0.055 0.044 0.029 0.028 0.022 0.019 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.847 -0.284 0.889 0.716 0.743 0.748 0.781 0.827 0.884 0.873 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.312 0.282 0.287 0.370 0.237 0.289 0.293 SDEV 0.246 0.210 0.205 0.208 0.232 0.232 0.227 SERR 0.020 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.902 0.895 0.899 0.928 0.872 0.900 0.901 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 3.794 0.187 0.779 4.855 0.026 0.728 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.455 0.242 -0.585 68 403 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 1.01 1.00 1.06 2.07 150.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.64 0.86 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 378. 177. 167. 246. 423. 471. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.726 0.652 0.629 0.621 0.612 0.560 0.556 0.503 0.494 0.468 PACF 0.726 0.263 0.203 0.166 0.126 -0.006 0.078 -0.059 0.032 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.092 0.132 0.157 0.177 0.195 0.210 0.223 0.234 0.243 0.252 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.629 0.390 0.128 0.113 0.121 0.150 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 702011 1 0.62971896 0.02453819 0.00000000 3.79726171 2 702012 1 1.46314895 0.02021612 0.00000000 3.42025375 3 702021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024969 4.00450897 4 702022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010777 3.87307525 5 702031 1 1.07252288 0.04517402 0.00000000 4.02319717 6 702032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122491 4.43207026 7 702041 1 1.21872604 0.03359193 0.00000000 3.46885061 8 702042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00179385 3.99085927 9 702051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073440 4.39829445 10 702052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00226176 4.52128553 11 702071 1 0.82729524 0.03828390 0.00000000 3.58327246 12 702072 1 1.74846458 0.08902910 0.00000000 3.44654441 13 702081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121435 3.71188736 14 702082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00210346 4.20778370 15 702091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033166 3.65522289 16 702092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019794 3.63621926 17 702101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00319749 3.82100010 18 702102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088095 3.74969912 19 702111 1 0.55232877 0.00888310 0.00000000 3.45387650 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 702112 1 2.41610050 0.13547595 0.00000000 3.60624647 21 702121 1 0.45968735 0.00566746 0.00000000 3.46595001 22 702122 1 0.77638769 0.00626575 0.00000000 3.47451186 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.056 0.749 4.859 0.045 0.456 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.071 0.137 3.123 0.045 0.657 3 702021 1517 1983 467 1.000 0.069 0.455 3.450 0.034 0.791 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.064 0.848 4.408 0.038 0.644 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.069 0.569 3.271 0.040 0.683 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.060 0.716 3.537 0.044 0.506 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.053 0.605 3.965 0.040 0.490 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.066 0.585 3.477 0.039 0.688 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.065 -0.406 5.834 0.043 0.595 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.077 0.336 2.672 0.039 0.766 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.068 0.725 4.719 0.038 0.706 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.073 0.325 3.806 0.042 0.710 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.062 0.551 3.198 0.040 0.642 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.052 0.299 2.670 0.036 0.580 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.074 0.771 4.064 0.046 0.629 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.064 0.874 6.039 0.041 0.589 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.047 0.130 3.381 0.038 0.490 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.059 0.901 5.183 0.036 0.688 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.053 0.118 3.016 0.039 0.524 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.059 0.854 5.904 0.045 0.489 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.062 0.538 4.141 0.041 0.587 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.073 3.012 21.472 0.038 0.743 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.063 0.622 4.827 0.040 0.621 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.008 0.622 3.854 0.003 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.064 0.577 3.886 0.040 0.636 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.010 0.446 1.588 0.005 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.047 -0.406 2.670 0.034 0.456 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.059 0.325 3.271 0.038 0.524 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.069 0.771 4.859 0.043 0.688 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.077 3.012 21.472 0.046 0.791 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 702011 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 702012 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 702021 -67 312 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 702022 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 702031 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 702032 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 702041 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 702042 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 702051 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 702052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 702071 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 702072 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 702081 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 702082 -67 244 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 702091 -67 283 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 702092 -67 289 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 702101 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 702102 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 702111 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 702112 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 702121 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 702122 -67 266 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.054 0.773 4.736 0.045 0.404 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.065 0.438 3.304 0.045 0.593 3 702021 1517 1983 467 1.000 0.049 0.639 3.948 0.034 0.605 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.059 1.183 5.324 0.038 0.585 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.061 0.538 3.200 0.040 0.606 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.056 0.733 4.009 0.044 0.440 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.050 0.790 4.968 0.040 0.406 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.058 0.570 3.755 0.039 0.597 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.059 -0.498 6.535 0.043 0.512 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.061 0.411 3.178 0.039 0.624 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.065 0.821 5.396 0.038 0.674 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.061 0.513 4.282 0.042 0.585 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.049 0.193 3.495 0.040 0.418 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.044 0.283 2.948 0.036 0.423 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.068 0.875 4.398 0.046 0.558 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.061 0.948 5.950 0.042 0.551 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.040 0.209 3.694 0.038 0.326 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.043 0.477 3.911 0.036 0.430 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.051 0.122 2.992 0.039 0.495 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.055 1.076 6.609 0.045 0.393 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.060 0.634 4.465 0.041 0.565 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.070 3.237 23.208 0.038 0.724 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.056 0.680 5.196 0.040 0.523 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.008 0.678 4.166 0.003 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.058 0.602 4.145 0.040 0.554 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.012 0.410 1.829 0.005 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.040 -0.498 2.948 0.034 0.326 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.050 0.411 3.495 0.038 0.423 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.061 0.821 5.324 0.043 0.597 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.070 3.237 23.208 0.046 0.724 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.239 0.111 0.007 0.154 3.215 -0.079 0.575 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.079 SERIES 702022 AND 702111 198 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.575 SERIES 702081 AND 702082 329 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.273 -0.032 0.465 0.176 0.135 0.154 0.193 0.228 0.316 0.293 SDEV 0.000 0.185 0.198 0.262 0.248 0.273 0.222 0.216 0.166 0.167 SERR 0.000 0.075 0.051 0.044 0.026 0.027 0.020 0.020 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.602 -0.238 0.890 0.732 0.699 0.742 0.793 0.827 0.885 0.882 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.353 0.319 0.255 0.325 0.243 0.332 0.313 SDEV 0.216 0.198 0.210 0.204 0.210 0.221 0.202 SERR 0.017 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.917 0.910 0.883 0.914 0.876 0.916 0.909 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.997 0.031 0.782 5.148 0.026 0.382 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.389 0.195 -0.148 142 329 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.60 1.00 1.07 1.67 44.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.52 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.382 0.241 0.206 0.191 0.217 0.111 0.086 -0.003 0.019 0.001 PACF 0.382 0.112 0.097 0.080 0.112 -0.043 0.001 -0.094 0.008 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.092 0.105 0.109 0.113 0.115 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.183 0.311 0.065 0.063 0.045 0.113 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.411 0.231 0.206 0.202 0.266 0.178 0.117 0.052 0.081 0.062 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.411 2 0.380 0.075 3 0.372 0.035 0.105 4 0.363 0.032 0.072 0.091 5 0.348 0.020 0.067 0.031 0.164 6 0.349 0.020 0.067 0.031 0.166 -0.008 7 0.349 0.021 0.067 0.032 0.167 -0.006 -0.007 8 0.349 0.021 0.077 0.034 0.171 -0.005 0.014 -0.060 9 0.351 0.020 0.077 0.028 0.170 -0.007 0.013 -0.071 0.032 10 0.352 0.018 0.078 0.028 0.175 -0.006 0.016 -0.070 0.043 -0.031 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2300.79 2215.74 2215.09 2211.82 2209.93 2199.16 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2201.13 2203.11 2203.43 2204.96 2206.49 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.348 0.020 0.067 0.031 0.164 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 21.10 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 126.74 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.348 0.141 0.122 0.100 0.221 0.148 0.089 0.072 0.060 0.0690 0.057 0.042 0.034 0.028 0.026 0.023 0.018 0.015 0.013 0.0109 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.0020 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 702011 5 0.191 0.380 -0.003 0.064 0.053 0.050 2 702012 5 0.417 0.444 0.219 -0.015 0.091 -0.022 3 702021 5 0.410 0.476 0.031 0.050 0.107 0.112 4 702022 5 0.378 0.447 0.140 0.099 0.000 0.031 5 702031 5 0.426 0.422 0.131 0.113 0.064 0.049 6 702032 5 0.259 0.297 0.133 0.127 0.056 0.069 7 702041 5 0.242 0.323 0.045 0.109 0.026 0.151 8 702042 5 0.412 0.452 0.061 0.048 0.057 0.167 9 702051 5 0.297 0.435 0.043 0.162 0.023 -0.024 10 702052 5 0.471 0.400 0.057 0.172 0.082 0.118 11 702071 5 0.489 0.512 0.136 0.042 0.009 0.100 12 702072 5 0.382 0.443 0.125 0.057 0.095 0.011 13 702081 5 0.203 0.352 0.109 0.005 0.061 0.059 14 702082 5 0.196 0.375 0.088 0.010 0.056 0.013 15 702091 5 0.347 0.440 0.165 0.008 0.002 0.082 16 702092 5 0.371 0.374 0.160 0.138 -0.017 0.089 17 702101 5 0.154 0.282 0.021 0.158 -0.041 0.137 18 702102 5 0.237 0.371 -0.001 0.141 -0.037 0.170 19 702111 5 0.260 0.493 0.009 0.045 -0.117 -0.021 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 702112 5 0.174 0.376 0.043 -0.044 0.018 0.102 21 702121 5 0.338 0.482 0.175 -0.031 -0.001 -0.011 22 702122 5 0.549 0.623 0.248 -0.077 -0.092 0.023 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.327 0.418 0.097 0.063 0.023 0.066 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.077 0.072 0.072 0.058 0.062 MEDIAN 5 0.342 0.428 0.098 0.053 0.025 0.064 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.175 0.079 0.097 0.119 0.062 0.099 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.154 0.282 -0.003 -0.077 -0.117 -0.024 LOWER HINGE 5 0.237 0.374 0.043 0.008 -0.001 0.013 UPPER HINGE 5 0.412 0.452 0.140 0.127 0.061 0.112 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.549 0.623 0.248 0.172 0.107 0.170 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.049 0.867 5.105 0.053 -0.010 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.051 0.649 4.100 0.054 -0.004 3 702021 1517 1983 467 1.000 0.038 0.683 6.230 0.041 0.003 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.046 0.842 6.579 0.047 -0.002 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.046 0.771 4.808 0.048 0.000 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.049 1.102 6.828 0.051 0.000 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.044 0.917 5.269 0.046 0.016 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.044 0.686 5.036 0.048 0.000 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.049 0.048 5.334 0.053 -0.001 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.044 0.149 3.443 0.048 0.002 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.046 0.788 7.803 0.049 -0.001 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.048 0.652 5.694 0.052 0.001 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.043 0.282 3.368 0.047 0.003 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.040 0.373 3.842 0.043 -0.002 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.055 0.965 5.542 0.057 -0.006 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.048 1.122 7.463 0.050 -0.007 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.037 0.346 3.534 0.042 0.000 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.038 0.356 3.785 0.042 0.009 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.044 0.491 3.968 0.047 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.050 0.920 5.122 0.053 0.009 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.049 0.631 5.552 0.051 0.000 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.047 1.347 9.709 0.052 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.046 0.681 5.369 0.049 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.005 0.330 1.599 0.004 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.046 0.684 5.195 0.049 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.005 0.543 2.261 0.005 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.037 0.048 3.368 0.041 -0.010 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.044 0.373 3.968 0.047 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.049 0.917 6.230 0.052 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.055 1.347 9.709 0.057 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.303 0.095 0.006 0.076 3.724 0.036 0.608 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.036 SERIES 702071 AND 702111 198 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.608 SERIES 702091 AND 702092 423 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.488 0.168 0.479 0.311 0.202 0.258 0.259 0.242 0.326 0.347 SDEV 0.000 0.248 0.163 0.177 0.175 0.156 0.161 0.177 0.136 0.150 SERR 0.000 0.101 0.042 0.030 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.016 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.793 0.557 0.896 0.852 0.790 0.846 0.848 0.837 0.890 0.906 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.312 0.289 0.318 0.334 0.289 0.397 0.439 SDEV 0.177 0.174 0.158 0.144 0.173 0.166 0.168 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.901 0.898 0.911 0.917 0.900 0.935 0.945 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.998 0.027 0.537 5.001 0.032 -0.100 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.301 0.139 -0.105 158 313 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.84 1.00 1.09 1.94 212.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.55 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.100 -0.099 -0.024 0.006 0.064 -0.050 0.024 -0.081 0.008 -0.025 PACF -0.100 -0.110 -0.047 -0.013 0.057 -0.039 0.028 -0.084 -0.007 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.092 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.024 -0.111 -0.111 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.003 0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.039 0.019 -0.094 -0.013 -0.045 PACF 0.002 -0.003 0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.039 0.019 -0.094 -0.012 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.002 0.002 -0.003 0.003 -0.003 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.998 0.030 0.726 5.035 0.025 0.379 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.378 0.187 0.155 0.148 0.202 0.094 0.064 -0.023 -0.005 -0.023 PACF 0.378 0.051 0.080 0.069 0.131 -0.046 0.008 -0.093 0.005 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.092 0.105 0.107 0.109 0.111 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.146 0.379 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES