RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA560T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA560T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 702 1 Yosemite Park, E Eingang DENSITY_LATE PICO - 702 2 United States of America lodgepole pine 3000 3748-11915 1513 1983 - 702 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 702012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 702022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1914 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 702031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 702041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 702052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 702071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1813 1813 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 702072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1815 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 702082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1731 1731 / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 702091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 702121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1817 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 702122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1818 1818 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 6.415 0.637 -0.156 2.900 0.113 -0.002 2 702012 1790 1983 194 6.245 0.614 -0.048 2.562 0.082 0.452 3 702021 1517 1983 467 5.247 0.706 0.194 2.949 0.073 0.758 4 702022 1521 1983 463 5.334 0.569 -0.195 2.443 0.083 0.523 5 702031 1607 1983 377 6.335 0.575 -0.075 3.077 0.067 0.580 6 702032 1591 1983 393 6.584 0.675 -0.412 2.920 0.078 0.543 7 702041 1606 1983 378 5.675 0.801 -0.039 2.201 0.081 0.747 8 702042 1604 1983 380 5.869 0.945 0.054 1.930 0.099 0.696 9 702051 1573 1983 411 6.130 0.660 0.040 2.644 0.094 0.396 10 702052 1638 1983 346 6.195 0.598 -0.024 2.843 0.075 0.534 11 702071 1513 1983 471 5.097 0.684 0.183 2.574 0.117 0.411 12 702072 1513 1983 471 4.983 0.731 0.399 2.575 0.115 0.544 13 702081 1655 1983 329 5.201 0.445 -0.467 3.178 0.067 0.527 14 702082 1619 1983 365 5.376 0.625 0.543 3.418 0.086 0.573 15 702091 1561 1983 423 5.719 0.670 -0.255 2.803 0.106 0.385 16 702092 1552 1983 432 5.940 0.626 -0.615 2.865 0.084 0.461 17 702101 1779 1983 205 6.423 0.590 -0.558 2.920 0.083 0.313 18 702102 1738 1983 246 6.555 0.663 -0.297 3.366 0.111 0.060 19 702111 1786 1983 198 6.139 0.539 -0.373 3.090 0.076 0.422 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 6.115 0.508 0.874 5.765 0.074 0.397 21 702121 1607 1983 377 5.648 0.935 0.373 2.103 0.086 0.794 22 702122 1586 1983 398 5.839 0.807 0.189 2.496 0.073 0.772 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1513 TO 1983 471 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 5.866 0.664 -0.030 2.892 0.087 0.495 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.493 0.123 0.371 0.746 0.016 0.204 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 376 5.904 0.649 -0.043 2.854 0.083 0.525 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 175 0.868 0.116 0.486 0.515 0.024 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 167 4.983 0.445 -0.615 1.930 0.067 -0.002 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 5.376 0.590 -0.297 2.562 0.075 0.397 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 421 6.245 0.706 0.189 3.077 0.099 0.580 MAXIMUM VALUE 470 6.584 0.945 0.874 5.765 0.117 0.794 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.368 0.146 0.010 -0.010 2.732 -0.024 0.750 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.024 SERIES 702011 AND 702041 167 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.750 SERIES 702021 AND 702022 463 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.752 0.476 0.484 0.439 0.375 0.363 0.481 0.426 0.495 0.383 SDEV 0.000 0.132 0.159 0.197 0.201 0.197 0.174 0.268 0.221 0.243 SERR 0.000 0.054 0.041 0.033 0.021 0.019 0.016 0.024 0.020 0.021 EPS 0.924 0.850 0.898 0.909 0.899 0.900 0.937 0.923 0.942 0.918 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.456 0.316 0.232 0.295 0.380 0.336 0.304 SDEV 0.201 0.219 0.247 0.223 0.193 0.220 0.228 SERR 0.016 0.015 0.016 0.015 0.013 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.944 0.909 0.869 0.902 0.931 0.918 0.906 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 5.834 0.417 0.011 3.076 0.066 0.297 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.148 -0.079 1.201 28 443 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.44 1.01 1.06 1.50 24.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.60 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 378. 177. 167. 246. 423. 471. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.296 0.435 0.343 0.341 0.355 0.288 0.308 0.260 0.259 0.189 PACF 0.296 0.381 0.193 0.127 0.145 0.043 0.055 0.017 0.016 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.092 0.100 0.115 0.123 0.131 0.139 0.144 0.149 0.153 0.157 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.285 0.061 0.275 0.135 0.121 0.151 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 702011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00217875 6.23195505 2 702012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075770 6.16918325 3 702021 1 2.93397975 0.00187022 0.00000000 3.29268312 4 702022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00260452 5.93770027 5 702031 1 1.01086581 0.01210257 0.00000000 6.11550713 6 702032 1 1.06991696 0.00702364 0.00000000 6.22260618 7 702041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00529229 6.67343330 8 702042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00607585 7.02618551 9 702051 1 1.88001704 0.00190477 0.00000000 4.82787371 10 702052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128993 6.41926861 11 702071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00292140 5.78539991 12 702072 1 1.80662155 0.00966084 0.00000000 4.58634663 13 702081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022521 5.23782921 14 702082 1 2.62122536 0.00211321 0.00000000 3.54951549 15 702091 1 1.08567679 0.00792811 0.00000000 5.40293169 16 702092 1 0.73604506 0.01602071 0.00000000 5.83431530 17 702101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00322560 6.75545645 18 702102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115525 6.69722700 19 702111 1 1.28396726 0.00343122 0.00000000 5.20876265 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 702112 1 2.12359929 0.11425253 0.00000000 6.03315258 21 702121 1 2.59242344 0.00836192 0.00000000 4.86078453 22 702122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00476517 6.78598070 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.098 -0.302 2.910 0.112 -0.029 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.098 0.028 2.674 0.082 0.454 3 702021 1517 1983 467 1.000 0.098 0.133 2.480 0.073 0.537 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.085 -0.207 3.215 0.082 0.244 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.081 -0.427 3.100 0.067 0.475 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.094 -0.618 3.333 0.078 0.451 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.101 0.227 3.189 0.081 0.501 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.112 -0.032 2.827 0.098 0.385 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.097 0.012 2.780 0.094 0.261 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.094 0.020 2.828 0.074 0.512 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.109 0.109 2.586 0.117 0.137 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.117 0.119 2.645 0.115 0.282 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.086 -0.467 3.121 0.067 0.525 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.087 0.028 2.719 0.086 0.246 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.108 -0.344 2.808 0.106 0.251 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.102 -0.550 2.839 0.084 0.430 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.087 -0.717 3.236 0.083 0.228 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.100 -0.249 3.526 0.110 0.046 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.083 -0.204 3.145 0.076 0.347 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.069 -0.213 3.210 0.073 0.159 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.118 0.097 2.113 0.085 0.574 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.100 -0.279 2.783 0.073 0.578 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.097 -0.174 2.912 0.087 0.345 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.012 0.269 0.324 0.016 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.098 -0.205 2.833 0.083 0.366 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.015 0.372 0.470 0.024 0.257 MINIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.069 -0.717 2.113 0.067 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.087 -0.344 2.719 0.074 0.244 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.102 0.028 3.189 0.098 0.501 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.118 0.227 3.526 0.117 0.578 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 702011 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 702012 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 702021 -67 312 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 702022 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 702031 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 702032 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 702041 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 702042 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 702051 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 702052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 702071 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 702072 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 702081 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 702082 -67 244 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 702091 -67 283 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 702092 -67 289 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 702101 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 702102 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 702111 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 702112 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 702121 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 702122 -67 266 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.094 -0.385 2.960 0.112 -0.113 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.092 -0.100 2.515 0.082 0.382 3 702021 1517 1983 467 0.999 0.084 0.439 3.235 0.073 0.358 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.081 -0.149 3.272 0.082 0.173 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.080 -0.367 3.202 0.067 0.454 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.090 -0.647 3.322 0.078 0.404 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.096 0.221 3.212 0.081 0.459 8 702042 1604 1983 380 0.999 0.102 -0.074 2.917 0.098 0.262 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.096 0.014 2.764 0.094 0.244 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.092 -0.010 2.828 0.074 0.488 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.108 0.129 2.625 0.117 0.116 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.111 0.056 2.590 0.115 0.213 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.080 -0.306 3.090 0.067 0.452 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.085 -0.028 2.700 0.086 0.214 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.104 -0.325 2.830 0.106 0.189 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.096 -0.341 2.966 0.084 0.341 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.083 -0.750 3.378 0.083 0.159 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.095 -0.429 3.453 0.110 -0.052 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.083 -0.197 3.138 0.076 0.337 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.069 -0.206 3.185 0.073 0.151 21 702121 1607 1983 377 0.999 0.108 0.141 2.266 0.085 0.495 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.096 -0.273 2.687 0.073 0.537 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.092 -0.163 2.961 0.087 0.285 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.011 0.281 0.315 0.016 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.093 -0.173 2.963 0.083 0.299 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.013 0.355 0.512 0.024 0.278 MINIMUM VALUE 167 0.999 0.069 -0.750 2.266 0.067 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.083 -0.341 2.700 0.074 0.173 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.096 0.014 3.212 0.098 0.452 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.111 0.439 3.453 0.117 0.537 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.335 0.124 0.008 -0.108 2.395 0.034 0.624 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.034 SERIES 702052 AND 702102 246 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.624 SERIES 702011 AND 702102 167 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.735 0.480 0.500 0.451 0.348 0.365 0.464 0.446 0.478 0.411 SDEV 0.000 0.126 0.142 0.182 0.209 0.200 0.185 0.258 0.221 0.235 SERR 0.000 0.051 0.037 0.030 0.022 0.020 0.017 0.024 0.020 0.020 EPS 0.918 0.852 0.903 0.913 0.888 0.901 0.933 0.929 0.938 0.927 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.431 0.331 0.237 0.303 0.368 0.350 0.316 SDEV 0.203 0.214 0.242 0.218 0.197 0.211 0.213 SERR 0.016 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.939 0.914 0.872 0.906 0.928 0.922 0.910 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.999 0.059 -0.553 2.945 0.067 -0.008 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.022 -0.008 0.081 110 361 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.43 1.00 1.06 1.49 35.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.60 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 0.180 0.068 0.085 0.092 0.051 0.054 0.018 0.000 -0.079 PACF -0.008 0.180 0.073 0.056 0.072 0.027 0.019 -0.009 -0.029 -0.102 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.041 -0.020 0.181 0.073 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.025 0.166 0.050 0.090 0.076 0.076 0.052 0.055 0.002 -0.044 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.025 2 -0.021 0.166 3 -0.031 0.167 0.059 4 -0.035 0.156 0.061 0.067 5 -0.039 0.151 0.051 0.070 0.066 6 -0.043 0.148 0.048 0.061 0.068 0.055 7 -0.044 0.146 0.046 0.060 0.064 0.056 0.027 8 -0.045 0.144 0.045 0.058 0.063 0.052 0.029 0.027 9 -0.044 0.145 0.046 0.060 0.064 0.053 0.032 0.026 -0.024 10 -0.046 0.147 0.048 0.064 0.069 0.058 0.036 0.038 -0.028 -0.079 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2891.13 2892.83 2881.75 2882.11 2881.97 2881.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2882.50 2884.15 2885.80 2887.53 2886.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.021 0.166 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.80 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.021 0.166 -0.007 0.028 -0.002 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 702011 2 0.065 -0.088 0.228 2 702012 2 0.207 0.282 0.263 3 702021 2 0.265 0.233 0.351 4 702022 2 0.084 0.136 0.213 5 702031 2 0.226 0.401 0.124 6 702032 2 0.238 0.290 0.282 7 702041 2 0.262 0.354 0.233 8 702042 2 0.119 0.205 0.221 9 702051 2 0.124 0.187 0.234 10 702052 2 0.327 0.349 0.287 11 702071 2 0.100 0.086 0.257 12 702072 2 0.190 0.136 0.360 13 702081 2 0.225 0.382 0.156 14 702082 2 0.082 0.173 0.191 15 702091 2 0.088 0.146 0.231 16 702092 2 0.187 0.251 0.264 17 702101 2 0.058 0.131 0.179 18 702102 2 0.033 -0.043 0.173 19 702111 2 0.158 0.262 0.222 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 702112 2 0.040 0.150 0.010 21 702121 2 0.337 0.328 0.339 22 702122 2 0.371 0.363 0.325 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.172 0.214 0.234 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.101 0.130 0.080 MEDIAN 2 0.172 0.219 0.232 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.153 0.191 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.033 -0.088 0.010 LOWER HINGE 2 0.084 0.136 0.191 UPPER HINGE 2 0.238 0.328 0.282 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.371 0.401 0.360 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.091 -0.387 3.029 0.102 0.008 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.082 -0.136 2.675 0.092 -0.011 3 702021 1517 1983 467 1.000 0.073 0.216 3.250 0.082 -0.068 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.078 -0.071 3.380 0.089 -0.023 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.070 -0.312 2.738 0.080 -0.013 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.079 -0.648 3.424 0.089 -0.029 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.083 0.296 2.994 0.096 -0.022 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.096 -0.067 2.981 0.109 -0.016 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.090 0.025 2.623 0.103 -0.026 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.077 0.162 3.174 0.088 -0.056 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.103 0.094 2.679 0.121 -0.039 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.101 -0.010 2.611 0.119 -0.055 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.070 -0.334 3.329 0.079 -0.007 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.082 -0.106 2.682 0.094 -0.006 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.099 -0.324 2.891 0.112 -0.006 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.087 -0.554 3.386 0.095 -0.028 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.081 -0.626 3.536 0.087 -0.007 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.094 -0.490 3.560 0.107 0.005 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.076 -0.164 3.152 0.085 0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.068 -0.229 3.058 0.079 0.001 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.088 0.155 3.295 0.100 -0.028 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.076 -0.002 2.739 0.088 -0.032 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.084 -0.160 3.054 0.095 -0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.010 0.274 0.314 0.012 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.082 -0.121 3.043 0.093 -0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.015 0.359 0.591 0.017 0.023 MINIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.068 -0.648 2.611 0.079 -0.068 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.076 -0.334 2.738 0.087 -0.029 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.091 0.025 3.329 0.103 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.103 0.296 3.560 0.121 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.412 0.113 0.007 -0.165 2.312 0.141 0.647 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.141 SERIES 702031 AND 702112 214 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.647 SERIES 702091 AND 702092 423 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.703 0.541 0.598 0.498 0.378 0.442 0.548 0.545 0.548 0.444 SDEV 0.000 0.143 0.107 0.167 0.187 0.192 0.164 0.197 0.180 0.210 SERR 0.000 0.058 0.028 0.028 0.020 0.019 0.015 0.018 0.016 0.018 EPS 0.905 0.880 0.933 0.927 0.901 0.926 0.951 0.951 0.953 0.935 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.434 0.380 0.286 0.363 0.441 0.439 0.415 SDEV 0.225 0.230 0.231 0.185 0.166 0.149 0.156 SERR 0.018 0.016 0.015 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.939 0.930 0.898 0.926 0.946 0.945 0.940 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.059 -0.547 2.983 0.074 -0.213 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.012 -0.004 0.066 86 385 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.40 1.00 1.07 1.47 8.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.46 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.213 -0.082 0.017 -0.001 0.047 -0.003 0.012 0.029 -0.013 -0.094 PACF -0.213 -0.134 -0.033 -0.017 0.045 0.019 0.028 0.043 0.008 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.092 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.063 -0.241 -0.134 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.009 -0.028 0.005 0.057 0.016 0.026 0.019 -0.024 -0.088 PACF -0.004 -0.009 -0.028 0.004 0.056 0.016 0.028 0.023 -0.023 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.005 -0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.058 -0.557 3.032 0.066 -0.034 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.034 0.157 -0.026 0.032 0.055 0.019 0.031 0.007 -0.013 -0.082 PACF -0.034 0.156 -0.016 0.006 0.064 0.017 0.015 0.006 -0.022 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.026 -0.028 0.157 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES