RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA560W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA560W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 702 1 Yosemite Park, E Eingang WIDTH_RING PICO - 702 2 United States of America lodgepole pine 3000 3748-11915 1513 1983 - 702 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 702012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 702022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1914 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 702031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 702041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 702052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 702071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1813 1813 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 702072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1815 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 702082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1731 1731 / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 702091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 702121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1817 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 702122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1818 1818 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.787 0.762 -0.001 2.399 0.221 0.793 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.229 0.580 0.331 3.240 0.269 0.727 3 702021 1517 1983 467 0.737 0.529 1.630 5.666 0.228 0.889 4 702022 1521 1983 463 0.729 0.488 0.937 3.369 0.235 0.869 5 702031 1607 1983 377 0.832 0.313 0.985 3.838 0.218 0.726 6 702032 1591 1983 393 0.872 0.337 0.396 3.193 0.230 0.726 7 702041 1606 1983 378 0.778 0.330 0.743 4.146 0.243 0.739 8 702042 1604 1983 380 0.762 0.363 0.774 3.490 0.227 0.841 9 702051 1573 1983 411 0.788 0.449 1.537 5.816 0.251 0.841 10 702052 1638 1983 346 0.805 0.356 0.824 4.036 0.227 0.770 11 702071 1513 1983 471 0.643 0.443 1.736 5.967 0.197 0.925 12 702072 1513 1983 471 0.672 0.466 2.615 13.613 0.192 0.901 13 702081 1655 1983 329 0.488 0.137 0.697 5.009 0.174 0.677 14 702082 1619 1983 365 0.516 0.179 0.981 3.946 0.224 0.680 15 702091 1561 1983 423 0.900 0.445 0.969 3.588 0.231 0.843 16 702092 1552 1983 432 0.807 0.422 1.099 3.676 0.243 0.843 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.609 0.491 0.831 3.529 0.176 0.708 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.187 0.450 0.313 2.642 0.200 0.774 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.776 0.684 0.966 3.703 0.256 0.625 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.551 0.533 0.281 2.672 0.290 0.488 21 702121 1607 1983 377 0.952 0.526 1.247 4.374 0.244 0.815 22 702122 1586 1983 398 0.951 0.452 1.394 8.117 0.244 0.720 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1513 TO 1983 471 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 0.971 0.442 0.967 4.547 0.228 0.769 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.386 0.142 0.582 2.416 0.028 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 376 0.819 0.450 0.951 3.771 0.229 0.772 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 175 0.450 0.171 0.550 1.640 0.026 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 167 0.488 0.137 -0.001 2.399 0.174 0.488 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.737 0.356 0.697 3.369 0.218 0.720 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 421 1.187 0.526 1.247 5.009 0.244 0.843 MAXIMUM VALUE 470 1.787 0.762 2.615 13.613 0.290 0.925 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.370 0.246 0.016 -0.254 2.234 -0.268 0.897 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.268 SERIES 702021 AND 702111 198 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.897 SERIES 702021 AND 702022 463 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR -0.184 0.413 0.672 0.397 0.328 0.308 0.398 0.403 0.545 0.457 SDEV 0.000 0.255 0.108 0.218 0.243 0.244 0.211 0.225 0.171 0.226 SERR 0.000 0.104 0.028 0.036 0.025 0.024 0.019 0.021 0.016 0.019 EPS -1.656 0.815 0.950 0.894 0.879 0.876 0.914 0.916 0.952 0.938 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.525 0.382 0.197 0.333 0.418 0.513 0.301 SDEV 0.219 0.226 0.256 0.183 0.192 0.170 0.227 SERR 0.018 0.016 0.017 0.012 0.013 0.011 0.015 EPS 0.957 0.930 0.843 0.917 0.940 0.959 0.904 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.911 0.383 1.326 4.720 0.162 0.876 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.361 0.185 0.219 203 268 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.79 1.47 1.00 1.23 2.70 18.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.55 0.86 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 378. 177. 167. 246. 423. 471. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.874 0.815 0.797 0.764 0.739 0.699 0.666 0.647 0.627 0.613 PACF 0.874 0.217 0.223 0.045 0.069 -0.054 0.000 0.029 0.037 0.047 95% C.L. 0.092 0.146 0.181 0.209 0.231 0.250 0.266 0.280 0.293 0.304 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.808 0.539 0.063 0.212 0.012 0.121 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 702011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00683256 1.21289158 2 702012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00544633 0.69280887 3 702021 1 1.91283882 0.01023957 0.00000000 0.34267160 4 702022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00302325 1.42895591 5 702031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00132757 1.08193433 6 702032 1 0.49426541 0.00613022 0.00000000 0.68596572 7 702041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00157376 1.07486236 8 702042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00216166 1.17406011 9 702051 1 1.10503924 0.01109979 0.00000000 0.54931509 10 702052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084558 0.65837997 11 702071 1 1.46552491 0.00821511 0.00000000 0.27237806 12 702072 1 1.85148227 0.01625450 0.00000000 0.42898124 13 702081 1 0.35388339 0.04291029 0.00000000 0.46343049 14 702082 1 0.54571408 0.03013165 0.00000000 0.46673584 15 702091 1 1.21057701 0.01277076 0.00000000 0.67646444 16 702092 1 1.18521917 0.01112355 0.00000000 0.56355602 17 702101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00513091 2.13765430 18 702102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00230145 1.47162735 19 702111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00367654 2.14137149 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 702112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00182110 1.74675000 21 702121 1 1.49110782 0.00660988 0.00000000 0.40299994 22 702122 1 0.67303139 0.00424738 0.00000000 0.62478489 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 0.991 0.390 0.062 2.660 0.219 0.740 2 702012 1790 1983 194 0.994 0.444 0.531 3.644 0.277 0.683 3 702021 1517 1983 467 0.998 0.330 0.316 3.018 0.228 0.657 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.234 1.202 5.068 35.681 0.238 0.817 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.001 0.322 0.608 3.277 0.219 0.615 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.352 0.079 2.796 0.229 0.682 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.351 0.300 3.216 0.243 0.601 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.336 0.386 4.156 0.227 0.632 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.426 0.858 4.244 0.250 0.715 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.001 0.432 0.682 3.228 0.227 0.762 11 702071 1513 1983 471 0.999 0.321 0.444 2.985 0.197 0.722 12 702072 1513 1983 471 0.999 0.325 0.098 2.950 0.191 0.735 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.253 0.263 3.018 0.173 0.606 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.283 0.486 3.215 0.225 0.503 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.381 0.769 5.246 0.230 0.723 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.354 0.152 3.270 0.243 0.669 17 702101 1779 1983 205 0.999 0.223 0.521 4.804 0.175 0.471 18 702102 1738 1983 246 0.996 0.353 0.499 3.132 0.199 0.734 19 702111 1786 1983 198 0.999 0.357 0.901 3.814 0.254 0.555 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.333 0.201 2.643 0.289 0.449 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.002 0.352 0.167 2.825 0.245 0.618 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.441 1.056 5.452 0.245 0.728 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.010 0.389 0.657 4.967 0.228 0.655 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.050 0.190 1.025 6.907 0.029 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.352 0.465 3.222 0.229 0.676 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.002 0.065 0.482 1.171 0.026 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 167 0.991 0.223 0.062 2.643 0.173 0.449 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.999 0.325 0.201 2.985 0.219 0.606 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.390 0.682 4.156 0.245 0.728 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.234 1.202 5.068 35.681 0.289 0.817 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 702011 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 702012 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 702021 -67 312 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 702022 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 702031 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 702032 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 702041 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 702042 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 702051 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 702052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 702071 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 702072 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 702081 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 702082 -67 244 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 702091 -67 283 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 702092 -67 289 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 702101 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 702102 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 702111 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 702112 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 702121 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 702122 -67 266 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 0.993 0.290 -0.163 3.510 0.217 0.574 2 702012 1790 1983 194 0.985 0.387 0.336 4.133 0.277 0.604 3 702021 1517 1983 467 0.995 0.315 0.404 3.442 0.228 0.618 4 702022 1521 1983 463 0.997 0.396 0.966 5.164 0.238 0.699 5 702031 1607 1983 377 0.993 0.290 0.584 3.591 0.218 0.545 6 702032 1591 1983 393 0.993 0.327 0.121 2.818 0.229 0.639 7 702041 1606 1983 378 0.996 0.344 0.540 3.763 0.243 0.580 8 702042 1604 1983 380 0.996 0.323 0.465 4.194 0.227 0.604 9 702051 1573 1983 411 0.994 0.392 0.785 4.052 0.250 0.678 10 702052 1638 1983 346 0.987 0.350 0.638 3.411 0.227 0.648 11 702071 1513 1983 471 0.997 0.302 0.362 3.227 0.197 0.684 12 702072 1513 1983 471 0.996 0.307 -0.023 2.977 0.191 0.705 13 702081 1655 1983 329 0.998 0.226 0.442 3.468 0.173 0.503 14 702082 1619 1983 365 0.999 0.271 0.464 3.003 0.225 0.452 15 702091 1561 1983 423 0.994 0.344 0.385 4.302 0.230 0.668 16 702092 1552 1983 432 0.999 0.347 0.111 3.237 0.243 0.652 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.219 0.426 4.442 0.175 0.453 18 702102 1738 1983 246 0.997 0.252 0.118 2.800 0.200 0.505 19 702111 1786 1983 198 0.996 0.314 0.704 3.342 0.254 0.457 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 0.998 0.298 -0.059 2.588 0.289 0.357 21 702121 1607 1983 377 0.995 0.335 0.183 2.963 0.245 0.581 22 702122 1586 1983 398 0.982 0.377 1.039 6.210 0.245 0.656 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 0.994 0.318 0.401 3.665 0.228 0.585 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.005 0.049 0.315 0.847 0.029 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 0.996 0.319 0.415 3.455 0.229 0.604 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.004 0.057 0.463 1.130 0.027 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 167 0.982 0.219 -0.163 2.588 0.173 0.357 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.993 0.290 0.121 3.003 0.217 0.505 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 0.997 0.347 0.584 4.133 0.245 0.656 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.396 1.039 6.210 0.289 0.705 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.345 0.122 0.008 -0.256 3.470 -0.080 0.680 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.080 SERIES 702021 AND 702111 198 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.680 SERIES 702091 AND 702092 423 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR -0.107 0.353 0.572 0.440 0.332 0.330 0.357 0.414 0.485 0.462 SDEV 0.000 0.272 0.140 0.215 0.227 0.218 0.213 0.230 0.182 0.194 SERR 0.000 0.111 0.036 0.036 0.024 0.021 0.019 0.021 0.017 0.017 EPS -0.636 0.773 0.926 0.910 0.881 0.886 0.899 0.919 0.940 0.939 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.522 0.405 0.201 0.342 0.437 0.480 0.291 SDEV 0.180 0.204 0.237 0.173 0.164 0.172 0.207 SERR 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.957 0.936 0.847 0.919 0.945 0.953 0.900 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.990 0.200 0.036 3.125 0.151 0.570 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.313 0.143 0.104 130 341 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.66 1.00 1.06 1.71 14.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.47 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.569 0.391 0.352 0.293 0.246 0.170 0.078 -0.029 -0.064 -0.084 PACF 0.569 0.099 0.142 0.040 0.034 -0.043 -0.083 -0.131 -0.039 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.092 0.118 0.129 0.137 0.142 0.145 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.346 0.501 0.023 0.144 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.577 0.415 0.337 0.287 0.246 0.164 0.084 -0.028 -0.054 -0.072 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.577 2 0.506 0.123 3 0.495 0.080 0.086 4 0.490 0.075 0.057 0.058 5 0.488 0.073 0.055 0.041 0.034 6 0.490 0.075 0.057 0.045 0.058 -0.050 7 0.487 0.079 0.060 0.048 0.063 -0.017 -0.066 8 0.478 0.077 0.069 0.055 0.072 -0.007 0.000 -0.135 9 0.475 0.077 0.069 0.056 0.073 -0.005 0.002 -0.126 -0.019 10 0.475 0.074 0.069 0.056 0.074 -0.004 0.003 -0.125 -0.009 -0.021 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4072.37 3883.79 3878.57 3877.08 3877.51 3878.95 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3879.80 3879.77 3873.08 3874.92 3876.71 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.495 0.080 0.086 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 34.78 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 153.32 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.495 0.325 0.286 0.210 0.155 0.118 0.089 0.067 0.050 0.0379 0.029 0.021 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0022 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 702011 3 0.355 0.526 0.137 -0.047 2 702012 3 0.412 0.434 0.226 0.065 3 702021 3 0.435 0.499 0.011 0.242 4 702022 3 0.557 0.526 0.085 0.212 5 702031 3 0.340 0.417 0.187 0.064 6 702032 3 0.422 0.597 -0.014 0.116 7 702041 3 0.361 0.526 0.050 0.080 8 702042 3 0.406 0.484 0.132 0.101 9 702051 3 0.474 0.585 0.072 0.085 10 702052 3 0.481 0.481 0.252 0.007 11 702071 3 0.499 0.525 0.148 0.102 12 702072 3 0.535 0.557 0.068 0.178 13 702081 3 0.275 0.436 0.117 0.032 14 702082 3 0.220 0.420 0.055 0.043 15 702091 3 0.458 0.612 0.014 0.095 16 702092 3 0.442 0.569 0.105 0.030 17 702101 3 0.235 0.380 0.073 0.134 18 702102 3 0.273 0.492 -0.017 0.107 19 702111 3 0.226 0.409 0.152 -0.070 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 702112 3 0.149 0.330 0.141 -0.087 21 702121 3 0.381 0.462 0.146 0.089 22 702122 3 0.463 0.500 0.177 0.074 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.382 0.490 0.105 0.075 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.111 0.073 0.073 0.081 MEDIAN 3 0.409 0.496 0.111 0.083 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.188 0.092 0.093 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.149 0.330 -0.017 -0.087 LOWER HINGE 3 0.275 0.434 0.055 0.032 UPPER HINGE 3 0.463 0.526 0.148 0.107 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.557 0.612 0.252 0.242 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.231 -0.236 3.347 0.271 -0.014 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.296 0.725 4.409 0.313 0.001 3 702021 1517 1983 467 1.000 0.237 0.298 3.124 0.268 -0.019 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.263 1.002 6.761 0.285 0.010 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.236 0.351 3.803 0.265 -0.009 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.249 0.467 3.691 0.282 -0.009 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.275 0.261 4.028 0.304 -0.011 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.248 0.316 4.411 0.271 -0.003 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.001 0.280 0.290 4.191 0.316 0.004 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.257 0.763 4.575 0.270 -0.001 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.214 0.139 4.020 0.243 -0.008 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.209 0.021 4.264 0.234 -0.003 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.193 0.436 3.408 0.212 -0.003 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.240 0.293 3.744 0.269 0.000 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.254 0.261 5.069 0.280 -0.009 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.261 0.228 3.392 0.288 -0.003 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.192 0.338 4.222 0.203 -0.003 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.215 -0.002 2.849 0.243 0.006 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.277 0.686 3.522 0.309 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.275 -0.042 2.856 0.318 0.005 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.264 0.316 3.115 0.297 -0.006 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.276 0.848 8.243 0.298 -0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.247 0.353 4.138 0.274 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.029 0.304 1.252 0.032 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.252 0.307 3.912 0.276 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.044 0.239 1.017 0.033 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.192 -0.236 2.849 0.203 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.231 0.228 3.392 0.265 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.275 0.467 4.409 0.298 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.001 0.296 1.002 8.243 0.318 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.364 0.099 0.007 -0.196 4.125 -0.012 0.650 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.012 SERIES 702021 AND 702111 198 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.650 SERIES 702091 AND 702092 423 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.359 0.432 0.465 0.404 0.450 0.464 0.435 0.456 0.473 0.473 SDEV 0.000 0.252 0.164 0.184 0.136 0.121 0.160 0.138 0.138 0.150 SERR 0.000 0.103 0.042 0.031 0.014 0.012 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.693 0.826 0.890 0.897 0.924 0.932 0.925 0.931 0.937 0.942 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.398 0.299 0.232 0.306 0.428 0.467 0.397 SDEV 0.173 0.159 0.208 0.187 0.153 0.147 0.147 SERR 0.014 0.011 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.930 0.902 0.869 0.907 0.943 0.951 0.935 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.997 0.159 0.072 3.033 0.182 -0.006 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.234 0.101 0.080 139 332 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.55 1.01 1.06 1.61 12.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.48 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.068 -0.004 0.015 0.082 0.038 -0.004 -0.097 -0.049 -0.074 PACF -0.006 -0.068 -0.005 0.010 0.082 0.041 0.008 -0.093 -0.055 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.013 0.082 0.033 -0.003 -0.101 -0.051 -0.081 PACF 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.013 0.082 0.033 -0.003 -0.103 -0.055 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.996 0.198 0.048 3.060 0.146 0.583 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.582 0.427 0.352 0.272 0.223 0.137 0.045 -0.051 -0.078 -0.103 PACF 0.582 0.133 0.091 0.013 0.024 -0.060 -0.086 -0.114 -0.018 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.092 0.119 0.132 0.139 0.144 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.358 0.495 0.084 0.093 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES