RUN: BULGCA1 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CA560X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CA560X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 702 1 Yosemite Park, E Eingang DENSITY_MAXIMUM PICO - 702 2 United States of America lodgepole pine 3000 3748-11915 1513 1983 - 702 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 702012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 702022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1914 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 702031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 702041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 702052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 702071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1813 1813 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 702072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1815 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 702082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1731 1731 / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 702091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1862 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 702121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1817 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 702122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1818 1818 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 0.713 0.074 0.012 2.629 0.114 0.040 2 702012 1790 1983 194 0.692 0.075 -0.142 2.559 0.087 0.475 3 702021 1517 1983 467 0.564 0.088 0.284 2.888 0.081 0.770 4 702022 1521 1983 463 0.578 0.070 -0.193 2.372 0.091 0.545 5 702031 1607 1983 377 0.695 0.067 -0.270 3.218 0.071 0.590 6 702032 1591 1983 393 0.722 0.079 -0.514 2.909 0.082 0.546 7 702041 1606 1983 378 0.623 0.094 -0.123 2.222 0.085 0.756 8 702042 1604 1983 380 0.643 0.109 0.010 1.945 0.103 0.699 9 702051 1573 1983 411 0.670 0.079 -0.034 2.660 0.103 0.393 10 702052 1638 1983 346 0.677 0.069 -0.020 2.873 0.080 0.515 11 702071 1513 1983 471 0.552 0.080 0.149 2.468 0.126 0.421 12 702072 1513 1983 471 0.542 0.084 0.329 2.483 0.121 0.551 13 702081 1655 1983 329 0.565 0.052 -0.566 3.376 0.070 0.529 14 702082 1619 1983 365 0.582 0.072 0.525 3.340 0.093 0.546 15 702091 1561 1983 423 0.629 0.079 -0.216 2.891 0.112 0.400 16 702092 1552 1983 432 0.655 0.073 -0.579 2.901 0.088 0.480 17 702101 1779 1983 205 0.714 0.066 -0.612 2.949 0.088 0.251 18 702102 1738 1983 246 0.724 0.074 -0.386 3.392 0.111 0.065 19 702111 1786 1983 198 0.681 0.063 -0.296 2.789 0.076 0.444 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 0.680 0.054 0.550 5.106 0.072 0.364 21 702121 1607 1983 377 0.621 0.111 0.339 2.015 0.091 0.793 22 702122 1586 1983 398 0.642 0.095 0.069 2.398 0.077 0.785 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1513 TO 1983 471 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 0.644 0.078 -0.077 2.836 0.092 0.498 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.059 0.015 0.345 0.649 0.017 0.204 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 376 0.649 0.075 -0.079 2.831 0.088 0.522 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 175 0.110 0.015 0.445 0.482 0.023 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 167 0.542 0.052 -0.612 1.945 0.070 0.040 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 0.582 0.069 -0.296 2.468 0.080 0.400 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 421 0.692 0.084 0.149 2.949 0.103 0.590 MAXIMUM VALUE 470 0.724 0.111 0.550 5.106 0.126 0.793 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.371 0.151 0.010 -0.020 2.739 -0.038 0.774 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.038 SERIES 702011 AND 702041 167 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.774 SERIES 702021 AND 702022 463 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.743 0.459 0.522 0.480 0.399 0.369 0.498 0.423 0.484 0.385 SDEV 0.000 0.118 0.142 0.192 0.200 0.210 0.164 0.264 0.232 0.249 SERR 0.000 0.048 0.037 0.032 0.021 0.021 0.015 0.024 0.021 0.021 EPS 0.921 0.841 0.911 0.922 0.908 0.902 0.941 0.922 0.940 0.919 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.471 0.318 0.226 0.293 0.393 0.351 0.304 SDEV 0.200 0.216 0.246 0.217 0.184 0.219 0.230 SERR 0.016 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.947 0.909 0.865 0.901 0.934 0.923 0.906 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.640 0.049 0.041 3.179 0.071 0.304 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.202 -0.109 0.156 25 446 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.61 1.00 1.05 1.66 30.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.43 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 378. 177. 167. 246. 423. 471. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.304 0.438 0.347 0.337 0.363 0.294 0.320 0.263 0.262 0.205 PACF 0.304 0.381 0.192 0.118 0.152 0.050 0.066 0.013 0.010 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.092 0.100 0.115 0.124 0.132 0.140 0.145 0.151 0.155 0.158 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.287 0.070 0.278 0.132 0.108 0.156 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 702011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043127 0.67640793 2 702012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028047 0.66478068 3 702021 1 0.26677254 0.00408443 0.00000000 0.44495630 4 702022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033882 0.65635413 5 702031 1 0.10825701 0.01122465 0.00000000 0.66976070 6 702032 1 0.11887686 0.00670579 0.00000000 0.68033195 7 702041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061202 0.73865700 8 702042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070432 0.77696168 9 702051 1 0.15173936 0.00399370 0.00000000 0.59550071 10 702052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010502 0.69522995 11 702071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035413 0.63588077 12 702072 1 0.20437783 0.00933892 0.00000000 0.49536169 13 702081 1 0.12490295 0.10036594 0.00000000 0.56175357 14 702082 1 0.21463242 0.00384655 0.00000000 0.46692398 15 702091 1 0.13767713 0.00835225 0.00000000 0.59103346 16 702092 1 0.09222709 0.01557794 0.00000000 0.64128101 17 702101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036438 0.75133574 18 702102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012071 0.73864776 19 702111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031413 0.71272063 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 702112 1 0.22857411 0.13993442 0.00000000 0.67260838 21 702121 1 0.30752477 0.00815223 0.00000000 0.52535272 22 702122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055495 0.75246727 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.099 -0.253 2.673 0.113 -0.038 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.107 0.047 2.686 0.087 0.473 3 702021 1517 1983 467 1.000 0.109 0.098 2.430 0.081 0.526 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.092 -0.268 3.187 0.091 0.220 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.088 -0.587 3.388 0.070 0.504 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.101 -0.739 3.304 0.082 0.467 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.109 0.172 3.162 0.085 0.533 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.117 -0.107 2.957 0.103 0.380 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.106 -0.031 2.875 0.103 0.262 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.101 0.002 2.897 0.080 0.503 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.116 0.085 2.557 0.125 0.120 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.125 0.061 2.541 0.120 0.301 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.088 -0.688 3.530 0.069 0.499 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.095 -0.094 2.709 0.094 0.220 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.114 -0.372 2.856 0.113 0.246 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.108 -0.530 2.850 0.088 0.444 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.087 -0.801 3.236 0.087 0.154 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.101 -0.325 3.503 0.110 0.053 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.089 -0.128 2.803 0.075 0.390 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.068 -0.357 3.263 0.072 0.187 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.128 0.020 2.084 0.091 0.571 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.110 -0.414 2.842 0.076 0.610 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.103 -0.237 2.924 0.092 0.347 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.014 0.295 0.367 0.017 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.104 -0.190 2.865 0.088 0.385 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.018 0.435 0.551 0.024 0.284 MINIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.068 -0.801 2.084 0.069 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.092 -0.414 2.686 0.080 0.220 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.110 0.020 3.236 0.103 0.503 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.128 0.172 3.530 0.125 0.610 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 702011 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 702012 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 702021 -67 312 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 702022 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 702031 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 702032 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 702041 -67 253 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 702042 -67 254 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 702051 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 702052 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 702071 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 702072 -67 315 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 702081 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 702082 -67 244 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 702091 -67 283 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 702092 -67 289 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 702101 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 702102 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 702111 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 702112 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 702121 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 702122 -67 266 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.096 -0.312 2.652 0.113 -0.123 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.100 -0.053 2.637 0.087 0.404 3 702021 1517 1983 467 0.999 0.095 0.394 3.004 0.081 0.357 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.088 -0.215 3.238 0.091 0.151 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.086 -0.507 3.499 0.070 0.480 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.097 -0.769 3.306 0.082 0.420 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.104 0.176 3.193 0.085 0.490 8 702042 1604 1983 380 0.999 0.106 -0.132 3.071 0.103 0.253 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.105 -0.033 2.835 0.103 0.247 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.099 -0.016 2.883 0.080 0.489 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.114 0.100 2.594 0.125 0.101 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.119 0.009 2.496 0.120 0.234 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.084 -0.487 3.379 0.069 0.445 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.093 -0.134 2.692 0.094 0.189 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.110 -0.352 2.891 0.113 0.184 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.101 -0.335 2.918 0.088 0.359 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.084 -0.814 3.278 0.087 0.092 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.096 -0.480 3.477 0.110 -0.040 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.088 -0.143 2.768 0.075 0.377 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.068 -0.363 3.289 0.072 0.176 21 702121 1607 1983 377 0.999 0.117 0.079 2.217 0.091 0.491 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.104 -0.425 2.794 0.076 0.568 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.098 -0.219 2.960 0.092 0.288 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.012 0.299 0.343 0.017 0.185 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.098 -0.179 2.905 0.088 0.305 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.017 0.409 0.586 0.024 0.269 MINIMUM VALUE 167 0.999 0.068 -0.814 2.217 0.069 -0.123 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.088 -0.425 2.692 0.080 0.176 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.105 -0.016 3.278 0.103 0.445 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.119 0.394 3.499 0.125 0.568 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.342 0.122 0.008 -0.023 2.375 0.075 0.618 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.075 SERIES 702052 AND 702102 246 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.618 SERIES 702011 AND 702102 167 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.734 0.467 0.527 0.494 0.375 0.373 0.479 0.446 0.462 0.413 SDEV 0.000 0.116 0.133 0.175 0.207 0.213 0.177 0.255 0.235 0.244 SERR 0.000 0.048 0.034 0.029 0.022 0.021 0.016 0.023 0.021 0.021 EPS 0.917 0.845 0.912 0.926 0.900 0.904 0.936 0.928 0.935 0.927 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.448 0.329 0.231 0.302 0.384 0.364 0.314 SDEV 0.203 0.214 0.242 0.214 0.190 0.213 0.218 SERR 0.016 0.015 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.942 0.914 0.869 0.905 0.932 0.926 0.910 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 0.999 0.065 -0.556 2.929 0.073 -0.014 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.031 -0.011 0.088 120 351 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.37 1.00 1.07 1.44 11.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.60 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 0.194 0.073 0.088 0.104 0.058 0.053 0.025 0.002 -0.069 PACF -0.014 0.194 0.081 0.056 0.082 0.033 0.013 -0.007 -0.029 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.047 -0.027 0.196 0.081 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.023 0.184 0.062 0.096 0.087 0.085 0.059 0.060 0.011 -0.039 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.023 2 -0.019 0.184 3 -0.032 0.185 0.072 4 -0.037 0.173 0.075 0.068 5 -0.042 0.167 0.062 0.071 0.071 6 -0.046 0.163 0.059 0.061 0.074 0.060 7 -0.048 0.161 0.057 0.059 0.069 0.062 0.028 8 -0.048 0.159 0.055 0.058 0.068 0.058 0.029 0.024 9 -0.048 0.160 0.056 0.059 0.069 0.059 0.033 0.023 -0.021 10 -0.050 0.162 0.059 0.064 0.074 0.064 0.037 0.036 -0.025 -0.079 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2962.72 2964.48 2950.27 2949.79 2949.57 2949.18 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2949.46 2951.09 2952.80 2954.59 2953.66 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.042 0.167 0.062 0.071 0.071 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.87 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.12 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.042 0.169 0.048 0.095 0.083 0.024 0.034 0.018 0.019 0.0120 0.008 0.007 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 702011 5 0.057 -0.089 0.189 -0.037 0.026 -0.016 2 702012 5 0.224 0.293 0.235 0.016 0.071 -0.034 3 702021 5 0.284 0.139 0.286 0.158 0.035 0.102 4 702022 5 0.093 0.086 0.194 0.076 0.051 0.071 5 702031 5 0.257 0.422 0.079 0.069 -0.050 0.084 6 702032 5 0.284 0.235 0.231 0.038 0.117 0.096 7 702041 5 0.301 0.347 0.189 0.041 0.024 0.092 8 702042 5 0.132 0.162 0.203 0.066 0.075 0.035 9 702051 5 0.138 0.150 0.197 0.091 0.087 0.025 10 702052 5 0.353 0.266 0.200 0.161 0.049 0.077 11 702071 5 0.104 0.024 0.176 0.102 0.077 0.150 12 702072 5 0.213 0.070 0.295 0.119 0.103 0.070 13 702081 5 0.233 0.356 0.126 0.000 0.104 0.036 14 702082 5 0.087 0.141 0.191 0.022 -0.003 0.097 15 702091 5 0.106 0.129 0.232 -0.011 0.045 0.086 16 702092 5 0.220 0.212 0.204 0.053 0.104 0.091 17 702101 5 0.037 0.079 0.124 0.028 0.071 -0.073 18 702102 5 0.061 -0.010 0.174 -0.054 0.118 -0.023 19 702111 5 0.170 0.321 0.190 -0.046 -0.032 0.023 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 702112 5 0.086 0.166 0.003 -0.118 -0.013 -0.148 21 702121 5 0.341 0.294 0.309 0.056 -0.025 0.088 22 702122 5 0.403 0.355 0.295 0.087 0.036 -0.044 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.190 0.189 0.197 0.042 0.049 0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.108 0.134 0.071 0.069 0.050 0.071 MEDIAN 5 0.191 0.164 0.195 0.047 0.050 0.070 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.190 0.208 0.056 0.088 0.063 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.037 -0.089 0.003 -0.118 -0.050 -0.148 LOWER HINGE 5 0.093 0.086 0.176 0.000 0.024 -0.016 UPPER HINGE 5 0.284 0.294 0.232 0.087 0.087 0.091 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.403 0.422 0.309 0.161 0.118 0.150 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 702011 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.093 -0.265 2.586 0.105 0.001 2 702012 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.088 -0.057 2.947 0.097 0.000 3 702021 1517 1983 467 1.000 0.080 0.152 3.343 0.086 -0.004 4 702022 1521 1983 463 1.000 0.084 -0.123 3.510 0.094 -0.005 5 702031 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.074 -0.329 2.826 0.085 -0.010 6 702032 1591 1983 393 1.000 0.082 -0.785 3.630 0.092 -0.006 7 702041 1606 1983 378 1.000 0.088 0.286 3.017 0.100 -0.007 8 702042 1604 1983 380 1.000 0.099 -0.048 3.063 0.112 -0.002 9 702051 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.098 -0.040 2.787 0.110 0.000 10 702052 1638 1983 346 1.000 0.080 0.140 3.314 0.090 -0.011 11 702071 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.108 0.062 2.617 0.126 -0.003 12 702072 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.105 0.055 2.568 0.121 0.002 13 702081 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.074 -0.524 3.765 0.083 -0.002 14 702082 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.089 -0.193 2.697 0.102 -0.004 15 702091 1561 1983 423 1.000 0.104 -0.375 2.920 0.119 -0.003 16 702092 1552 1983 432 1.000 0.089 -0.588 3.408 0.098 -0.004 17 702101 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.082 -0.718 3.425 0.089 -0.003 18 702102 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.093 -0.505 3.716 0.106 0.001 19 702111 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.080 -0.191 3.135 0.087 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 702112 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.065 -0.377 3.031 0.077 -0.020 21 702121 1607 1983 377 1.000 0.095 0.199 3.521 0.104 0.000 22 702122 1586 1983 398 1.000 0.080 -0.050 2.868 0.091 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 350 1.000 0.088 -0.194 3.122 0.099 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.011 0.301 0.377 0.013 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 377 1.000 0.088 -0.157 3.047 0.098 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 177 0.000 0.015 0.432 0.599 0.017 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 167 1.000 0.065 -0.785 2.568 0.077 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 246 1.000 0.080 -0.377 2.826 0.089 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 423 1.000 0.095 0.055 3.425 0.106 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 471 1.000 0.108 0.286 3.765 0.126 0.002 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.417 0.111 0.007 -0.074 2.331 0.106 0.653 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.106 SERIES 702031 AND 702112 214 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.653 SERIES 702091 AND 702092 423 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1538. 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. CORR 1. 6. 15. 36. 91. 105. 120. 120. 120. 136. RBAR 0.696 0.521 0.592 0.506 0.402 0.446 0.554 0.541 0.534 0.438 SDEV 0.000 0.144 0.099 0.165 0.194 0.214 0.153 0.184 0.184 0.206 SERR 0.000 0.059 0.025 0.027 0.020 0.021 0.014 0.017 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.902 0.871 0.931 0.929 0.909 0.927 0.952 0.950 0.950 0.934 NSS 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.1 YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 153. 210. 231. 231. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.427 0.369 0.275 0.367 0.454 0.443 0.401 SDEV 0.222 0.230 0.241 0.182 0.155 0.151 0.151 SERR 0.018 0.016 0.016 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.938 0.926 0.893 0.927 0.948 0.946 0.936 NSS 20.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.063 -0.569 3.073 0.077 -0.193 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.028 -0.009 0.074 102 369 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.28 1.00 1.06 1.33 7.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.28 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.193 -0.022 -0.026 -0.027 0.007 0.000 0.013 0.010 -0.014 -0.087 PACF -0.193 -0.061 -0.044 -0.044 -0.011 -0.006 0.010 0.014 -0.008 -0.094 95% C.L. 0.092 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.041 -0.193 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.007 0.009 0.004 -0.030 -0.088 PACF 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.007 0.009 0.004 -0.030 -0.088 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1513 1983 471 1.000 0.063 -0.560 2.946 0.071 -0.027 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.027 0.180 0.058 0.089 0.076 0.009 0.033 0.000 -0.011 -0.086 PACF -0.027 0.179 0.069 0.063 0.061 -0.017 0.000 -0.012 -0.028 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.092 0.092 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.042 -0.035 0.181 0.069 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES