RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana044w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana044w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 811 1 Willow Lake WIDTH_RING PCMA - 811 2 Canada Black Spruce 620 6210-11908 1850 1988 - 811 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 811441 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 811491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1958 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 811411 1890 1988 99 0.841 0.403 0.613 2.228 0.197 0.870 2 811412 1898 1988 91 0.934 0.267 0.191 2.365 0.181 0.689 3 811421 1950 1988 39 1.550 0.357 0.189 2.812 0.155 0.670 4 811422 1951 1988 38 1.929 0.457 0.192 2.507 0.162 0.612 5 811441 1830 1987 158 0.598 0.334 1.191 4.390 0.201 0.800 6 811442 1830 1987 158 0.566 0.370 1.217 4.164 0.217 0.850 7 811451 1857 1987 131 0.729 0.298 0.352 3.132 0.226 0.673 8 811452 1864 1942 79 0.649 0.187 1.225 5.168 0.220 0.447 9 811481 1870 1958 89 0.510 0.148 0.542 3.358 0.194 0.685 10 811482 1869 1986 118 0.408 0.254 1.975 6.605 0.195 0.825 11 811491 1911 1988 78 0.879 0.308 0.781 3.157 0.259 0.520 12 811492 1921 1988 68 0.696 0.398 0.645 3.076 0.209 0.862 13 811501 1932 1988 57 0.727 0.280 0.264 2.364 0.233 0.696 14 811511 1878 1988 111 0.694 0.277 0.794 3.467 0.150 0.843 15 811512 1877 1988 112 0.693 0.421 0.422 1.821 0.153 0.938 16 811521 1853 1988 136 0.476 0.371 0.707 2.183 0.196 0.959 17 811522 1895 1988 94 0.563 0.333 0.428 1.797 0.152 0.952 18 811531 1875 1988 114 0.479 0.341 1.278 4.488 0.159 0.939 19 811532 1886 1969 84 0.457 0.213 0.383 2.720 0.171 0.828 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 811541 1919 1988 70 0.871 0.270 0.396 2.295 0.227 0.568 21 811542 1923 1988 66 0.614 0.164 0.689 3.666 0.221 0.482 22 811551 1901 1988 88 0.963 0.254 0.471 2.807 0.169 0.630 23 811552 1910 1988 79 0.809 0.157 0.270 2.691 0.148 0.458 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1830 TO 1988 159 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 0.767 0.298 0.662 3.185 0.191 0.730 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.349 0.087 0.449 1.151 0.032 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 89 0.694 0.298 0.542 2.812 0.195 0.696 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.291 0.109 0.420 1.202 0.058 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.408 0.148 0.189 1.797 0.148 0.447 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 0.565 0.254 0.368 2.364 0.160 0.621 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 113 0.856 0.363 0.788 3.567 0.218 0.856 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.929 0.457 1.975 6.605 0.259 0.959 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 245 0.383 0.332 0.021 -0.655 2.933 -0.601 0.937 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.601 SERIES 811422 AND 811522 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.937 SERIES 811531 AND 811532 84 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.84 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1855. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 10. 66. 105. RBAR 0.917 0.570 0.298 0.362 SDEV 0.000 0.140 0.316 0.277 SERR 0.000 0.044 0.039 0.027 EPS 0.978 0.938 0.878 0.920 NSS 3.9 11.4 17.0 20.3 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1830 1988 159 0.728 0.269 0.978 5.291 0.159 0.740 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.249 -0.116 0.345 55 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.77 1.33 1.01 1.28 2.61 7.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.51 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 89. 39. 38. 74. 113. 158. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.736 0.611 0.504 0.477 0.432 0.365 0.291 0.252 0.268 0.207 PACF 0.736 0.151 0.025 0.140 0.031 -0.046 -0.045 0.018 0.107 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.159 0.229 0.267 0.290 0.309 0.324 0.334 0.340 0.345 0.350 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.635 0.673 0.150 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 811411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00633173 1.15749538 2 811412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00632617 1.22463000 3 811421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01442915 1.26141703 4 811422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02817595 1.37951636 5 811441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00523571 1.01481605 6 811442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00633315 1.06911790 7 811451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00384813 0.98321313 8 811452 1 0.50838840 0.07029630 0.00000000 0.56083900 9 811481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049762 0.53261745 10 811482 1 0.61972648 0.02258458 0.00000000 0.19430259 11 811491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00429481 1.05141783 12 811492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01737374 1.29557073 13 811501 1 1.07800543 0.01672041 0.00000000 0.03783590 14 811511 1 0.98427731 0.01518494 0.00000000 0.22168225 15 811512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01210907 1.37746620 16 811521 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 811522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01134198 1.10214829 18 811531 1 1.25269735 0.02299693 0.00000000 0.04050123 19 811532 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00810054 0.80153471 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 811541 1 0.98941880 0.01566642 0.00000000 0.27439398 21 811542 1 0.60856229 0.20422314 0.00000000 0.57354635 22 811551 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00202890 0.87278217 23 811552 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037853 0.82400197 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 811411 1890 1988 99 0.989 0.391 0.461 2.405 0.195 0.801 2 811412 1898 1988 91 1.000 0.229 0.130 2.505 0.179 0.471 3 811421 1950 1988 39 1.001 0.207 -0.057 2.704 0.152 0.510 4 811422 1951 1988 38 1.000 0.188 1.664 7.366 0.158 0.276 5 811441 1830 1987 158 1.005 0.307 -0.109 3.322 0.200 0.612 6 811442 1830 1987 158 1.045 0.400 1.195 6.109 0.214 0.701 7 811451 1857 1987 131 0.994 0.381 0.974 4.017 0.225 0.662 8 811452 1864 1942 79 1.000 0.214 0.002 2.748 0.219 0.199 9 811481 1870 1958 89 1.000 0.290 0.548 3.434 0.191 0.674 10 811482 1869 1986 118 1.001 0.440 0.980 3.099 0.193 0.793 11 811491 1911 1988 78 0.999 0.331 0.855 3.370 0.261 0.439 12 811492 1921 1988 68 1.023 0.335 1.359 5.609 0.208 0.676 13 811501 1932 1988 57 1.002 0.334 1.487 5.362 0.228 0.567 14 811511 1878 1988 111 0.999 0.239 0.757 3.661 0.149 0.688 15 811512 1877 1988 112 1.229 1.194 6.765 51.174 0.156 0.527 16 811521 1853 1988 136 1.005 0.329 0.836 4.095 0.196 0.694 17 811522 1895 1988 94 1.096 0.421 2.214 8.539 0.149 0.812 18 811531 1875 1988 114 0.984 0.282 0.429 3.303 0.157 0.765 19 811532 1886 1969 84 1.003 0.173 -0.027 3.347 0.166 0.280 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 811541 1919 1988 70 1.000 0.232 0.723 3.482 0.224 0.294 21 811542 1923 1988 66 1.000 0.221 0.215 3.143 0.214 0.338 22 811551 1901 1988 88 1.000 0.258 0.424 2.353 0.168 0.617 23 811552 1910 1988 79 1.000 0.193 0.216 2.616 0.146 0.456 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.016 0.330 0.958 5.990 0.189 0.559 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.052 0.205 1.402 9.981 0.032 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 89 1.000 0.290 0.723 3.370 0.193 0.612 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.004 0.133 0.872 1.804 0.056 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.984 0.173 -0.109 2.353 0.146 0.199 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 1.000 0.225 0.215 2.924 0.158 0.447 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 113 1.004 0.358 1.087 4.728 0.214 0.691 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.229 1.194 6.765 51.174 0.261 0.812 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 811411 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 811412 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 811421 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 811422 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 811441 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 811442 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 811451 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 811452 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 811481 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 811482 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 811491 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 811492 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 811501 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 811511 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 811512 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 811521 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 811522 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 811531 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 811532 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 811541 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 811542 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 811551 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 811552 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 811411 1890 1988 99 0.989 0.216 0.060 3.329 0.194 0.421 2 811412 1898 1988 91 0.998 0.218 0.157 2.547 0.178 0.413 3 811421 1950 1988 39 0.997 0.169 -0.388 2.657 0.153 0.319 4 811422 1951 1988 38 0.999 0.178 1.515 7.127 0.158 0.223 5 811441 1830 1987 158 0.997 0.287 -0.264 3.445 0.200 0.579 6 811442 1830 1987 158 0.996 0.309 0.233 3.906 0.215 0.608 7 811451 1857 1987 131 0.992 0.288 0.762 3.666 0.226 0.464 8 811452 1864 1942 79 0.999 0.208 0.057 2.896 0.219 0.154 9 811481 1870 1958 89 0.993 0.232 0.931 4.602 0.190 0.496 10 811482 1869 1986 118 0.990 0.393 0.826 2.966 0.193 0.741 11 811491 1911 1988 78 0.998 0.308 0.645 2.999 0.261 0.383 12 811492 1921 1988 68 0.990 0.246 0.370 2.827 0.208 0.509 13 811501 1932 1988 57 0.989 0.229 0.482 3.156 0.223 0.301 14 811511 1878 1988 111 0.998 0.216 0.540 3.387 0.149 0.620 15 811512 1877 1988 112 0.998 0.293 2.709 19.544 0.154 0.487 16 811521 1853 1988 136 0.996 0.302 0.608 3.292 0.195 0.689 17 811522 1895 1988 94 0.992 0.159 0.459 4.000 0.147 0.375 18 811531 1875 1988 114 0.995 0.235 0.764 3.922 0.157 0.618 19 811532 1886 1969 84 0.998 0.159 -0.125 3.375 0.166 0.156 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 811541 1919 1988 70 1.000 0.229 0.722 3.539 0.224 0.283 21 811542 1923 1988 66 0.999 0.201 0.079 3.478 0.214 0.175 22 811551 1901 1988 88 0.997 0.229 0.459 2.980 0.167 0.517 23 811552 1910 1988 79 0.999 0.181 0.589 4.172 0.146 0.345 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 0.996 0.238 0.530 4.253 0.188 0.429 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.004 0.058 0.638 3.459 0.032 0.170 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 89 0.997 0.229 0.482 3.387 0.193 0.421 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.006 0.083 0.624 0.924 0.057 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.989 0.159 -0.388 2.547 0.146 0.154 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 0.992 0.204 0.118 2.990 0.157 0.310 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 113 0.998 0.287 0.742 3.914 0.214 0.548 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.000 0.393 2.709 19.544 0.261 0.741 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 245 0.309 0.171 0.011 -0.011 2.688 -0.178 0.710 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.178 SERIES 811422 AND 811521 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.710 SERIES 811441 AND 811442 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.84 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1855. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 10. 66. 105. RBAR 0.908 0.320 0.364 0.302 SDEV 0.000 0.227 0.158 0.231 SERR 0.000 0.072 0.019 0.023 EPS 0.975 0.843 0.907 0.898 NSS 3.9 11.4 17.0 20.3 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1830 1988 159 0.984 0.216 -0.419 4.756 0.166 0.503 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.399 0.146 0.036 38 121 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.96 1.01 1.11 2.07 85.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.78 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.500 0.338 0.266 0.203 0.113 0.080 0.028 -0.048 -0.013 -0.086 PACF 0.500 0.118 0.079 0.028 -0.044 0.002 -0.038 -0.083 0.050 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.159 0.194 0.209 0.217 0.222 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.224 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.284 0.455 0.120 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.392 0.261 0.312 0.155 -0.022 0.000 0.030 -0.089 -0.088 -0.019 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.392 2 0.342 0.127 3 0.316 0.056 0.208 4 0.326 0.058 0.224 -0.049 5 0.318 0.095 0.233 0.004 -0.164 6 0.314 0.095 0.238 0.006 -0.157 -0.022 7 0.316 0.104 0.238 -0.007 -0.162 -0.039 0.055 8 0.319 0.101 0.227 -0.007 -0.146 -0.032 0.076 -0.068 9 0.317 0.103 0.226 -0.012 -0.146 -0.025 0.079 -0.058 -0.030 10 0.318 0.105 0.224 -0.011 -0.144 -0.025 0.075 -0.060 -0.036 0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1063.87 1039.37 1038.79 1033.76 1035.38 1033.05 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1034.97 1036.49 1037.76 1039.61 1041.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.316 0.056 0.208 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.32 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 125.50 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.316 0.155 0.275 0.161 0.098 0.097 0.070 0.048 0.039 0.0295 0.021 0.017 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0017 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 811411 3 0.217 0.393 -0.020 0.182 2 811412 3 0.188 0.389 0.031 0.083 3 811421 3 0.226 0.337 0.115 -0.354 4 811422 3 0.160 0.238 -0.137 -0.154 5 811441 3 0.362 0.527 0.091 0.031 6 811442 3 0.404 0.532 0.078 0.092 7 811451 3 0.220 0.486 -0.068 0.053 8 811452 3 0.027 0.158 -0.016 -0.032 9 811481 3 0.253 0.472 0.088 -0.066 10 811482 3 0.578 0.820 -0.057 -0.041 11 811491 3 0.156 0.416 -0.077 -0.037 12 811492 3 0.289 0.517 -0.037 0.048 13 811501 3 0.112 0.314 -0.055 0.095 14 811511 3 0.422 0.493 0.162 0.066 15 811512 3 0.426 0.449 0.265 -0.006 16 811521 3 0.513 0.588 0.054 0.129 17 811522 3 0.161 0.360 0.106 -0.085 18 811531 3 0.408 0.528 0.073 0.107 19 811532 3 0.131 0.109 0.213 0.069 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 811541 3 0.116 0.335 -0.175 0.022 21 811542 3 0.064 0.185 -0.046 0.108 22 811551 3 0.315 0.525 -0.087 0.150 23 811552 3 0.226 0.449 -0.196 0.118 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.260 0.418 0.013 0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.146 0.157 0.119 0.117 MEDIAN 3 0.226 0.449 -0.016 0.053 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.225 0.185 0.152 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.027 0.109 -0.196 -0.354 LOWER HINGE 3 0.158 0.336 -0.063 -0.034 UPPER HINGE 3 0.383 0.521 0.089 0.101 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.578 0.820 0.265 0.182 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 811411 1890 1988 99 1.000 0.191 0.194 2.929 0.219 -0.020 2 811412 1898 1988 91 1.000 0.196 0.610 3.085 0.212 0.002 3 811421 1950 1988 39 1.000 0.146 -0.443 2.439 0.168 -0.005 4 811422 1951 1988 38 1.000 0.169 1.749 8.313 0.167 -0.036 5 811441 1830 1987 158 1.000 0.227 -0.539 4.826 0.261 -0.017 6 811442 1830 1987 158 1.000 0.237 0.247 4.045 0.262 -0.013 7 811451 1857 1987 131 1.000 0.254 0.978 4.844 0.258 0.002 8 811452 1864 1942 79 1.000 0.205 0.037 3.069 0.231 -0.001 9 811481 1870 1958 89 1.000 0.200 0.498 3.164 0.223 0.002 10 811482 1869 1986 118 1.000 0.256 1.700 9.510 0.251 0.018 11 811491 1911 1988 78 1.000 0.283 0.508 3.409 0.319 -0.001 12 811492 1921 1988 68 1.000 0.211 0.238 2.520 0.246 0.007 13 811501 1932 1988 57 1.000 0.217 0.685 3.044 0.253 0.017 14 811511 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.164 0.297 3.003 0.182 0.005 15 811512 1877 1988 112 1.000 0.224 3.634 25.680 0.190 0.068 16 811521 1853 1988 136 1.000 0.213 0.416 3.504 0.233 0.027 17 811522 1895 1988 94 1.000 0.146 -0.116 3.600 0.169 0.002 18 811531 1875 1988 114 1.000 0.181 0.355 4.804 0.197 0.003 19 811532 1886 1969 84 1.000 0.152 -0.131 3.280 0.172 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 811541 1919 1988 70 1.000 0.216 0.561 2.767 0.247 0.002 21 811542 1923 1988 66 1.000 0.197 0.148 3.360 0.230 0.017 22 811551 1901 1988 88 1.000 0.193 0.361 3.849 0.209 0.025 23 811552 1910 1988 79 1.000 0.162 0.359 3.508 0.168 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.202 0.537 4.894 0.220 0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.000 0.036 0.866 4.844 0.040 0.020 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 89 1.000 0.200 0.359 3.409 0.223 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.046 0.415 1.368 0.063 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.146 -0.539 2.439 0.167 -0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 74 1.000 0.175 0.171 3.056 0.186 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.221 0.586 4.424 0.249 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.000 0.283 3.634 25.680 0.319 0.068 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 245 0.349 0.160 0.010 -0.163 2.660 -0.081 0.721 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.081 SERIES 811422 AND 811522 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.721 SERIES 811452 AND 811541 24 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.84 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 44.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1855. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 10. 66. 105. RBAR 0.797 0.468 0.436 0.359 SDEV 0.000 0.124 0.107 0.172 SERR 0.000 0.039 0.013 0.017 EPS 0.939 0.909 0.929 0.919 NSS 3.9 11.4 17.0 20.3 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1830 1988 159 0.989 0.166 -0.578 5.582 0.189 -0.072 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.162 0.057 0.077 41 118 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.83 1.00 1.11 1.94 10.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.54 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.072 0.001 -0.025 0.042 -0.008 -0.023 0.045 -0.143 0.086 -0.038 PACF -0.072 -0.004 -0.026 0.039 -0.002 -0.025 0.044 -0.140 0.069 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.163 0.165 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.000 0.002 0.039 -0.010 -0.020 0.034 -0.133 0.069 -0.027 PACF 0.003 0.000 0.002 0.039 -0.010 -0.020 0.034 -0.135 0.073 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.162 0.163 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 0.003 0.000 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1830 1988 159 0.988 0.186 -0.531 4.447 0.156 0.390 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.387 0.252 0.292 0.191 0.082 0.063 0.036 -0.082 -0.008 -0.058 PACF 0.387 0.119 0.191 0.013 -0.056 -0.020 -0.019 -0.118 0.061 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.159 0.181 0.189 0.200 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.206 0.207 0.207 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.204 0.327 0.046 0.204 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.02 MINUTES