RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana054e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana054e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 819 1 Lac PŽribonca WIDTH_EARLY PCMA - 819 2 Canada Black Spruce 1400 5002-7129 1829 1988 - 819 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 819012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 819021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 819042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 819092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1858 1860 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 819011 1866 1988 123 0.837 0.336 -0.308 2.964 0.198 0.814 2 819012 1872 1988 117 0.670 0.406 0.603 2.917 0.218 0.883 3 819021 1876 1988 113 0.658 0.213 0.815 3.685 0.226 0.554 4 819022 1875 1988 114 0.543 0.212 1.332 5.458 0.208 0.743 5 819031 1865 1988 124 0.704 0.371 0.705 2.867 0.203 0.855 6 819032 1874 1988 115 0.643 0.302 1.188 5.678 0.223 0.758 7 819041 1829 1977 149 0.511 0.212 0.238 2.400 0.188 0.853 8 819042 1826 1988 163 0.536 0.259 -0.041 2.391 0.189 0.905 9 819051 1843 1988 146 0.707 0.224 0.435 2.803 0.209 0.659 10 819052 1830 1988 159 0.558 0.242 1.422 7.633 0.206 0.794 11 819061 1843 1988 146 0.562 0.161 0.508 3.607 0.170 0.665 12 819062 1847 1988 142 0.417 0.152 0.314 3.207 0.166 0.807 13 819071 1872 1988 117 0.456 0.141 1.316 6.744 0.207 0.611 14 819072 1882 1988 107 0.526 0.164 0.616 3.563 0.188 0.672 15 819081 1837 1988 152 0.562 0.211 -0.168 2.111 0.187 0.808 16 819082 1844 1988 145 0.643 0.182 -0.244 2.433 0.182 0.702 17 819091 1855 1988 134 0.660 0.258 0.742 4.676 0.211 0.800 18 819092 1847 1988 142 0.761 0.252 0.169 3.319 0.247 0.605 19 819101 1882 1988 107 0.686 0.275 0.814 2.841 0.189 0.835 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 819102 1881 1988 108 0.718 0.282 0.791 4.405 0.204 0.701 21 819111 1862 1988 127 0.875 0.334 0.601 3.365 0.216 0.744 22 819112 1854 1988 135 1.200 0.459 0.541 2.949 0.213 0.794 23 819121 1845 1988 144 0.706 0.267 0.484 2.621 0.258 0.681 24 819122 1855 1988 134 0.961 0.313 1.135 4.766 0.199 0.711 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1826 TO 1988 163 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 0.671 0.259 0.584 3.725 0.204 0.748 STANDARD DEVIATION 17 0.172 0.081 0.489 1.437 0.021 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 0.659 0.255 0.602 3.263 0.205 0.751 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.162 0.096 0.539 1.718 0.026 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.417 0.141 -0.308 2.111 0.166 0.554 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 115 0.550 0.211 0.276 2.822 0.189 0.676 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 0.712 0.308 0.814 4.541 0.215 0.811 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 1.200 0.459 1.422 7.633 0.258 0.905 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.313 0.279 0.017 -0.076 2.549 -0.393 0.932 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.393 SERIES 819072 AND 819112 107 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.932 SERIES 819041 AND 819042 149 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 78. 210. 276. 253. RBAR 0.393 0.330 0.298 0.338 SDEV 0.241 0.265 0.308 0.293 SERR 0.027 0.018 0.019 0.018 EPS 0.928 0.922 0.911 0.924 NSS 20.0 23.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1826 1988 163 0.624 0.150 0.413 3.143 0.141 0.766 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.572 0.301 0.046 77 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.56 0.92 1.01 1.12 2.04 4.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 134. 30. 107. 116. 146. 163. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.761 0.671 0.610 0.576 0.571 0.523 0.477 0.443 0.408 0.339 PACF 0.761 0.218 0.111 0.104 0.134 -0.014 -0.016 0.008 -0.009 -0.115 95% C.L. 0.157 0.230 0.274 0.306 0.331 0.354 0.373 0.388 0.400 0.410 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.617 0.573 0.147 0.119 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 819011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00708401 1.27628148 2 819012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01071799 1.29720616 3 819021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013245 0.64969289 4 819022 1 0.38745579 0.02561439 0.00000000 0.41861629 5 819031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00865177 1.24428403 6 819032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00719774 1.06025171 7 819041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00240094 0.69148016 8 819042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00356616 0.82585073 9 819051 1 0.25201431 0.03136422 0.00000000 0.65302521 10 819052 1 0.89480954 0.12334410 0.00000000 0.51555812 11 819061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055651 0.52156258 12 819062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00222016 0.57620615 13 819071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00127808 0.38031977 14 819072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00236231 0.39804268 15 819081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023027 0.54416084 16 819082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054617 0.68269825 17 819091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00400294 0.93049711 18 819092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00328060 0.99594456 19 819101 1 0.85336399 0.05950523 0.00000000 0.55575317 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 819102 1 0.82050043 0.06870095 0.00000000 0.61129224 21 819111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00097166 0.81308961 22 819112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002946 1.19762635 23 819121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00313279 0.93296039 24 819122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00179823 0.83921671 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 819011 1866 1988 123 0.990 0.323 -0.124 3.611 0.195 0.732 2 819012 1872 1988 117 1.059 0.476 2.387 12.637 0.221 0.635 3 819021 1876 1988 113 1.000 0.323 0.799 3.685 0.226 0.559 4 819022 1875 1988 114 1.000 0.342 1.117 4.930 0.207 0.679 5 819031 1865 1988 124 1.007 0.272 0.417 2.762 0.201 0.567 6 819032 1874 1988 115 1.000 0.266 0.610 3.391 0.219 0.470 7 819041 1829 1977 149 0.992 0.355 0.243 2.438 0.187 0.792 8 819042 1826 1988 163 0.971 0.388 0.192 2.485 0.192 0.845 9 819051 1843 1988 146 1.000 0.304 0.403 3.074 0.207 0.608 10 819052 1830 1988 159 0.999 0.359 0.244 2.652 0.205 0.765 11 819061 1843 1988 146 1.000 0.284 0.653 4.337 0.169 0.654 12 819062 1847 1988 142 0.997 0.290 -0.024 2.764 0.165 0.673 13 819071 1872 1988 117 1.001 0.291 1.057 5.560 0.205 0.555 14 819072 1882 1988 107 1.002 0.290 0.828 4.095 0.187 0.602 15 819081 1837 1988 152 1.000 0.374 -0.174 2.142 0.186 0.800 16 819082 1844 1988 145 1.000 0.281 -0.262 2.429 0.181 0.694 17 819091 1855 1988 134 0.998 0.302 -0.023 3.975 0.209 0.672 18 819092 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.295 0.439 3.790 0.245 0.467 19 819101 1882 1988 107 0.999 0.293 0.213 2.280 0.188 0.704 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 819102 1881 1988 108 0.999 0.324 0.480 3.319 0.202 0.684 21 819111 1862 1988 127 1.000 0.385 0.754 3.615 0.215 0.740 22 819112 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.383 0.543 2.950 0.212 0.789 23 819121 1845 1988 144 0.999 0.336 0.741 3.740 0.256 0.527 24 819122 1855 1988 134 1.000 0.307 0.650 3.661 0.197 0.684 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 1.001 0.327 0.507 3.763 0.203 0.662 STANDARD DEVIATION 17 0.014 0.049 0.549 2.070 0.021 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 1.000 0.315 0.459 3.501 0.203 0.676 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.001 0.066 0.545 1.176 0.026 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.971 0.266 -0.262 2.142 0.165 0.467 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 0.999 0.291 0.203 2.707 0.187 0.585 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 1.000 0.357 0.748 3.882 0.213 0.736 MAXIMUM VALUE 163 1.059 0.476 2.387 12.637 0.256 0.845 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 819011 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 819012 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 819021 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 819022 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 819031 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 819032 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 819041 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 819042 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 819051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 819052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 819061 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 819062 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 819071 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 819072 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 819081 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 819082 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 819091 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 819092 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 819101 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 819102 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 819111 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 819112 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 819121 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 819122 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 819011 1866 1988 123 0.990 0.297 0.131 3.306 0.194 0.676 2 819012 1872 1988 117 0.997 0.349 0.714 5.980 0.220 0.607 3 819021 1876 1988 113 0.996 0.297 0.698 3.137 0.225 0.507 4 819022 1875 1988 114 0.996 0.318 1.021 5.029 0.206 0.639 5 819031 1865 1988 124 0.996 0.249 0.321 2.776 0.201 0.504 6 819032 1874 1988 115 0.998 0.254 0.564 3.127 0.219 0.441 7 819041 1829 1977 149 0.994 0.259 0.100 2.806 0.187 0.587 8 819042 1826 1988 163 0.994 0.245 0.306 3.242 0.192 0.388 9 819051 1843 1988 146 0.995 0.282 0.263 2.854 0.207 0.567 10 819052 1830 1988 159 0.994 0.323 0.399 3.268 0.203 0.680 11 819061 1843 1988 146 0.997 0.270 1.320 7.848 0.168 0.591 12 819062 1847 1988 142 0.997 0.284 0.395 3.533 0.165 0.632 13 819071 1872 1988 117 0.997 0.252 1.120 6.410 0.205 0.399 14 819072 1882 1988 107 0.995 0.232 0.458 3.780 0.186 0.471 15 819081 1837 1988 152 0.990 0.240 -0.124 2.994 0.187 0.553 16 819082 1844 1988 145 0.997 0.211 0.094 5.080 0.181 0.458 17 819091 1855 1988 134 0.996 0.281 -0.092 4.051 0.209 0.601 18 819092 1847 1988 142 0.998 0.282 0.368 3.912 0.245 0.426 19 819101 1882 1988 107 0.993 0.214 0.158 3.232 0.189 0.476 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 819102 1881 1988 108 0.993 0.234 -0.111 2.895 0.202 0.444 21 819111 1862 1988 127 0.992 0.286 0.616 4.710 0.213 0.543 22 819112 1854 1988 135 0.994 0.316 1.108 6.735 0.212 0.603 23 819121 1845 1988 144 0.994 0.301 0.824 4.752 0.256 0.380 24 819122 1855 1988 134 0.998 0.286 0.446 3.601 0.197 0.658 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 0.995 0.273 0.462 4.127 0.203 0.535 STANDARD DEVIATION 17 0.002 0.035 0.403 1.407 0.021 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 0.995 0.282 0.397 3.567 0.203 0.548 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.003 0.050 0.562 1.758 0.025 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.990 0.211 -0.124 2.776 0.165 0.380 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 0.994 0.247 0.144 3.132 0.188 0.451 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 0.997 0.297 0.706 4.890 0.213 0.605 MAXIMUM VALUE 163 0.998 0.349 1.320 7.848 0.256 0.680 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.321 0.140 0.008 0.195 3.568 -0.091 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.091 SERIES 819031 AND 819111 124 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 819041 AND 819042 149 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 78. 210. 276. 253. RBAR 0.381 0.266 0.306 0.422 SDEV 0.158 0.207 0.218 0.172 SERR 0.018 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.925 0.897 0.914 0.946 NSS 20.0 23.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1826 1988 163 0.991 0.163 0.058 4.040 0.137 0.508 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.135 0.065 0.152 49 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.52 1.00 1.07 1.58 8.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.505 0.261 0.163 0.153 0.184 0.157 0.050 -0.035 -0.107 -0.183 PACF 0.505 0.009 0.038 0.074 0.097 0.017 -0.084 -0.069 -0.100 -0.140 95% C.L. 0.157 0.192 0.201 0.204 0.207 0.211 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.216 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.257 0.507 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.508 0.256 0.156 0.151 0.182 0.144 0.053 -0.050 -0.110 -0.223 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.508 2 0.509 -0.002 3 0.509 -0.021 0.037 4 0.506 -0.019 -0.003 0.078 5 0.499 -0.019 -0.001 0.030 0.095 6 0.499 -0.019 -0.001 0.030 0.095 0.000 7 0.499 -0.013 0.000 0.030 0.094 0.030 -0.060 8 0.493 -0.010 0.010 0.033 0.094 0.029 -0.012 -0.097 9 0.485 -0.011 0.012 0.040 0.097 0.030 -0.013 -0.056 -0.082 10 0.469 -0.022 0.009 0.046 0.116 0.038 -0.011 -0.059 0.013 -0.196 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1224.20 1177.62 1179.62 1181.40 1182.41 1182.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1184.92 1186.32 1186.78 1187.68 1183.30 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.508 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 25.77 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 134.72 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.508 0.258 0.131 0.066 0.034 0.017 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.0011 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 819011 1 0.475 0.687 2 819012 1 0.400 0.609 3 819021 1 0.274 0.511 4 819022 1 0.425 0.641 5 819031 1 0.257 0.506 6 819032 1 0.226 0.449 7 819041 1 0.376 0.599 8 819042 1 0.156 0.392 9 819051 1 0.353 0.569 10 819052 1 0.468 0.684 11 819061 1 0.355 0.595 12 819062 1 0.411 0.632 13 819071 1 0.183 0.399 14 819072 1 0.233 0.475 15 819081 1 0.335 0.565 16 819082 1 0.214 0.463 17 819091 1 0.379 0.613 18 819092 1 0.185 0.427 19 819101 1 0.244 0.479 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 819102 1 0.207 0.448 21 819111 1 0.296 0.543 22 819112 1 0.441 0.664 23 819121 1 0.171 0.380 24 819122 1 0.437 0.661 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.313 0.541 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.104 0.098 MEDIAN 1 0.315 0.554 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.185 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.156 0.380 LOWER HINGE 1 0.220 0.456 UPPER HINGE 1 0.405 0.623 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.475 0.687 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 819011 1866 1988 123 1.000 0.216 0.263 3.295 0.252 -0.039 2 819012 1872 1988 117 1.000 0.277 0.440 5.984 0.284 0.131 3 819021 1876 1988 113 1.000 0.256 0.885 3.621 0.252 0.071 4 819022 1875 1988 114 1.000 0.243 0.714 4.087 0.250 0.096 5 819031 1865 1988 124 1.000 0.215 0.387 2.650 0.239 -0.018 6 819032 1874 1988 115 1.000 0.226 0.308 2.563 0.252 0.077 7 819041 1829 1977 149 1.000 0.207 -0.054 3.541 0.237 -0.090 8 819042 1826 1988 163 1.000 0.225 0.083 5.866 0.224 -0.018 9 819051 1843 1988 146 1.000 0.232 -0.031 4.087 0.264 -0.116 10 819052 1830 1988 159 1.000 0.236 0.572 4.519 0.259 -0.023 11 819061 1843 1988 146 1.000 0.217 0.990 7.750 0.225 -0.023 12 819062 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.220 0.299 5.028 0.229 -0.084 13 819071 1872 1988 117 1.000 0.231 0.767 5.559 0.248 0.067 14 819072 1882 1988 107 1.000 0.204 0.569 4.065 0.218 0.042 15 819081 1837 1988 152 1.000 0.197 0.148 3.357 0.228 -0.091 16 819082 1844 1988 145 1.000 0.187 0.208 3.634 0.210 -0.011 17 819091 1855 1988 134 1.000 0.221 0.117 3.146 0.261 -0.053 18 819092 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.255 0.459 3.295 0.281 -0.022 19 819101 1882 1988 107 1.000 0.188 0.110 3.199 0.220 -0.067 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 819102 1881 1988 108 1.000 0.209 -0.250 2.964 0.237 -0.042 21 819111 1862 1988 127 1.000 0.240 0.514 4.024 0.265 -0.024 22 819112 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.227 0.646 4.101 0.256 -0.085 23 819121 1845 1988 144 1.000 0.278 0.714 4.553 0.300 -0.066 24 819122 1855 1988 134 1.000 0.215 -0.173 3.992 0.252 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 132 1.000 0.226 0.362 4.120 0.248 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 17 0.000 0.024 0.334 1.206 0.022 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 1.000 0.223 0.348 4.008 0.251 -0.023 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.026 0.496 1.241 0.031 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.187 -0.250 2.563 0.210 -0.116 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.212 0.113 3.295 0.228 -0.067 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 1.000 0.238 0.609 4.536 0.260 0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 163 1.000 0.278 0.990 7.750 0.300 0.131 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.344 0.112 0.007 0.727 4.386 0.062 0.799 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.062 SERIES 819072 AND 819102 107 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.799 SERIES 819041 AND 819042 149 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 78. 210. 276. 253. RBAR 0.366 0.330 0.373 0.411 SDEV 0.144 0.149 0.144 0.125 SERR 0.016 0.010 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.920 0.922 0.935 0.944 NSS 20.0 23.9 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1826 1988 163 0.996 0.138 0.017 3.179 0.161 -0.034 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.202 0.088 0.076 54 109 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.57 1.00 1.05 1.62 27.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.034 -0.039 -0.001 0.023 0.093 0.038 0.004 -0.042 0.009 -0.129 PACF -0.034 -0.041 -0.003 0.021 0.095 0.047 0.015 -0.039 0.002 -0.145 95% C.L. 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.041 -0.001 0.026 0.095 0.041 0.004 -0.041 0.004 -0.131 PACF -0.001 -0.041 -0.001 0.025 0.095 0.044 0.012 -0.039 -0.002 -0.148 95% C.L. 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1826 1988 163 0.997 0.160 0.025 3.946 0.134 0.503 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.500 0.240 0.152 0.136 0.146 0.091 0.017 -0.052 -0.089 -0.180 PACF 0.500 -0.013 0.048 0.058 0.066 -0.026 -0.048 -0.070 -0.056 -0.152 95% C.L. 0.157 0.192 0.199 0.202 0.204 0.207 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.209 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.253 0.503 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES