RUN: CANA2 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana074e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana074e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 840 1 Buffalo Lake WIDTH_EARLY PCGL - 840 2 Canada White Spruce 803 6017-11516 1842 1988 - 840 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 840021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1962 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 840022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 840032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 840062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 840071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1968 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 840072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 840101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 840111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1912 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 840112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1907 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 840152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1897 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 840011 1849 1988 140 1.224 0.570 0.392 2.283 0.189 0.835 2 840012 1859 1988 130 1.262 0.596 0.532 2.973 0.189 0.828 3 840021 1884 1988 105 1.342 0.579 0.833 3.196 0.175 0.886 4 840022 1882 1988 107 0.943 0.365 0.475 3.242 0.198 0.797 5 840031 1884 1988 105 0.738 0.222 0.227 3.369 0.251 0.524 6 840032 1895 1988 94 0.775 0.508 0.689 3.080 0.265 0.899 7 840041 1858 1987 130 0.550 0.366 0.634 2.175 0.271 0.927 8 840042 1886 1987 102 0.869 0.450 1.112 4.190 0.169 0.931 9 840051 1897 1988 92 0.807 0.331 1.197 4.173 0.200 0.758 10 840052 1893 1988 96 0.675 0.252 0.494 2.999 0.201 0.782 11 840061 1891 1988 98 0.952 0.410 0.207 2.205 0.196 0.846 12 840062 1886 1988 103 0.713 0.244 0.538 3.684 0.202 0.659 13 840071 1907 1988 82 0.655 0.264 0.692 3.146 0.247 0.775 14 840072 1916 1988 73 0.622 0.252 0.058 2.866 0.279 0.719 15 840081 1893 1988 96 0.991 0.275 -0.042 2.864 0.167 0.698 16 840082 1891 1988 98 1.195 0.402 0.675 3.151 0.172 0.723 17 840101 1843 1988 146 0.688 0.569 0.988 3.624 0.305 0.925 18 840102 1852 1988 137 0.655 0.510 0.879 2.741 0.315 0.904 19 840111 1894 1988 95 0.789 0.459 1.364 4.802 0.246 0.800 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 840112 1899 1988 90 0.843 0.320 1.122 5.421 0.238 0.595 21 840121 1861 1988 128 0.846 0.425 0.259 2.630 0.275 0.781 22 840122 1892 1988 97 0.960 0.487 0.547 3.115 0.304 0.700 23 840141 1850 1988 139 0.660 0.289 0.251 2.630 0.192 0.817 24 840142 1842 1988 147 0.712 0.341 0.265 2.615 0.196 0.876 25 840151 1850 1986 137 0.737 0.488 1.018 3.281 0.225 0.915 26 840152 1863 1988 126 0.740 0.331 -0.019 2.750 0.215 0.761 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1842 TO 1988 147 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 0.844 0.396 0.592 3.200 0.226 0.795 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.212 0.117 0.388 0.762 0.045 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 0.782 0.384 0.542 3.097 0.209 0.799 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.264 0.198 0.620 0.627 0.073 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 72 0.550 0.222 -0.042 2.175 0.167 0.524 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.688 0.289 0.259 2.741 0.192 0.723 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 130 0.952 0.488 0.879 3.369 0.265 0.886 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.342 0.596 1.364 5.421 0.315 0.931 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.479 0.215 0.012 -0.786 3.410 -0.257 0.874 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.257 SERIES 840082 AND 840102 98 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.874 SERIES 840141 AND 840142 139 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 45. 276. 325. RBAR 0.276 0.435 0.460 SDEV 0.316 0.330 0.223 SERR 0.047 0.020 0.012 EPS 0.885 0.952 0.957 NSS 20.2 25.5 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1842 1988 147 0.854 0.280 -0.094 2.241 0.139 0.865 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.420 0.244 0.166 61 86 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.90 1.01 1.14 2.05 549.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 104. 34. 73. 96. 130. 147. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.859 0.798 0.725 0.658 0.588 0.523 0.472 0.429 0.427 0.424 PACF 0.859 0.230 -0.003 -0.017 -0.044 -0.025 0.020 0.030 0.160 0.087 95% C.L. 0.165 0.260 0.319 0.361 0.393 0.416 0.433 0.447 0.458 0.469 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.761 0.665 0.230 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 840011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01183226 2.05810285 2 840012 1 1.70809984 0.02202412 0.00000000 0.70612901 3 840021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01348357 2.05503750 4 840022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00204597 1.04520619 5 840031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00315976 0.90584797 6 840032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01617642 1.55202901 7 840041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099174 0.61495888 8 840042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01071037 1.42040765 9 840051 1 0.76507658 0.04626099 0.00000000 0.63359517 10 840052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00370978 0.85482019 11 840061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01249221 1.57071114 12 840062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00510322 0.98843330 13 840071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00064287 0.62893283 14 840072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00526712 0.82256061 15 840081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00304483 1.13882017 16 840082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069997 1.16035140 17 840101 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 840102 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 840111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01022354 1.28397107 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 840112 1 0.59432989 0.02726652 0.00000000 0.62537396 21 840121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00405028 1.10694635 22 840122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00475831 1.19295108 23 840141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00493052 1.00549579 24 840142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00570730 1.13417673 25 840151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00316230 0.95542508 26 840152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00423638 1.02167583 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 840011 1849 1988 140 1.010 0.286 0.902 5.407 0.188 0.584 2 840012 1859 1988 130 1.000 0.377 0.701 4.130 0.188 0.752 3 840021 1884 1988 105 0.996 0.264 0.578 3.395 0.180 0.647 4 840022 1882 1988 107 0.999 0.376 0.390 3.014 0.199 0.775 5 840031 1884 1988 105 0.999 0.279 0.431 3.548 0.249 0.403 6 840032 1895 1988 94 1.242 1.461 5.585 32.800 0.266 0.663 7 840041 1858 1987 130 0.998 0.648 0.564 2.135 0.269 0.916 8 840042 1886 1987 102 0.992 0.300 0.211 3.366 0.168 0.739 9 840051 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.338 1.111 4.058 0.197 0.660 10 840052 1893 1988 96 0.999 0.348 0.524 2.618 0.199 0.757 11 840061 1891 1988 98 0.998 0.225 0.079 3.515 0.196 0.318 12 840062 1886 1988 103 0.999 0.278 0.717 3.500 0.199 0.542 13 840071 1907 1988 82 1.000 0.396 0.628 3.075 0.241 0.754 14 840072 1916 1988 73 0.996 0.393 0.675 3.874 0.275 0.645 15 840081 1893 1988 96 0.999 0.270 0.255 2.993 0.166 0.691 16 840082 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.335 0.680 3.254 0.170 0.713 17 840101 1843 1988 146 1.021 0.495 0.857 4.144 0.313 0.647 18 840102 1852 1988 137 0.982 0.396 0.725 3.641 0.312 0.622 19 840111 1894 1988 95 1.002 0.418 0.937 3.739 0.247 0.712 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 840112 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.334 1.026 5.289 0.236 0.523 21 840121 1861 1988 128 0.991 0.490 0.474 2.873 0.273 0.760 22 840122 1892 1988 97 0.999 0.533 1.246 4.810 0.301 0.720 23 840141 1850 1988 139 0.996 0.344 0.840 5.032 0.190 0.747 24 840142 1842 1988 147 0.994 0.346 -0.032 2.400 0.194 0.772 25 840151 1850 1986 137 0.989 0.604 0.748 2.726 0.223 0.895 26 840152 1863 1988 126 0.989 0.402 -0.213 2.366 0.216 0.733 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 1.007 0.421 0.794 4.681 0.225 0.680 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.048 0.236 1.036 5.801 0.045 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 0.999 0.362 0.677 3.507 0.207 0.712 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.004 0.118 0.426 1.137 0.075 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 73 0.982 0.225 -0.213 2.135 0.166 0.318 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.996 0.300 0.431 2.993 0.190 0.645 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.418 0.857 4.130 0.266 0.754 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.242 1.461 5.585 32.800 0.313 0.916 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 840011 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 840012 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 840021 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 840022 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 840031 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 840032 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 840041 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 840042 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 840051 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 840052 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 840061 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 840062 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 840071 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 840072 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 840081 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 840082 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 840101 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 840102 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 840111 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 840112 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 840121 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 840122 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 840141 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 840142 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 840151 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 840152 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 840011 1849 1988 140 0.998 0.268 1.109 6.443 0.188 0.543 2 840012 1859 1988 130 0.996 0.360 0.461 3.158 0.188 0.748 3 840021 1884 1988 105 0.993 0.217 0.663 4.013 0.178 0.472 4 840022 1882 1988 107 0.993 0.286 0.220 3.008 0.197 0.625 5 840031 1884 1988 105 0.997 0.257 0.326 3.515 0.249 0.312 6 840032 1895 1988 94 0.998 0.433 1.019 5.208 0.265 0.661 7 840041 1858 1987 130 1.023 0.660 3.143 18.915 0.277 0.708 8 840042 1886 1987 102 0.996 0.289 0.459 3.464 0.168 0.711 9 840051 1897 1988 92 0.994 0.304 0.770 3.138 0.196 0.631 10 840052 1893 1988 96 0.995 0.328 0.506 2.629 0.199 0.711 11 840061 1891 1988 98 0.998 0.217 0.065 3.282 0.195 0.270 12 840062 1886 1988 103 0.997 0.256 0.524 3.132 0.199 0.438 13 840071 1907 1988 82 0.988 0.330 0.194 2.949 0.240 0.660 14 840072 1916 1988 73 0.992 0.350 0.882 4.895 0.274 0.513 15 840081 1893 1988 96 0.998 0.190 0.437 3.617 0.166 0.295 16 840082 1891 1988 98 0.997 0.249 0.852 3.904 0.171 0.488 17 840101 1843 1988 146 0.990 0.430 0.451 3.184 0.313 0.617 18 840102 1852 1988 137 0.993 0.368 0.570 3.456 0.312 0.554 19 840111 1894 1988 95 0.991 0.387 0.868 3.589 0.247 0.682 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 840112 1899 1988 90 0.994 0.313 1.201 5.639 0.236 0.478 21 840121 1861 1988 128 0.987 0.367 0.695 4.573 0.271 0.529 22 840122 1892 1988 97 0.976 0.425 0.584 3.345 0.302 0.612 23 840141 1850 1988 139 0.993 0.318 1.028 6.429 0.190 0.705 24 840142 1842 1988 147 0.995 0.325 -0.049 2.678 0.193 0.733 25 840151 1850 1986 137 0.998 0.405 0.720 4.152 0.221 0.758 26 840152 1863 1988 126 0.983 0.281 0.340 3.659 0.214 0.496 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 0.994 0.331 0.694 4.460 0.225 0.575 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.008 0.095 0.592 3.130 0.046 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 0.994 0.321 0.577 3.552 0.207 0.614 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.005 0.101 0.431 1.415 0.075 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 73 0.976 0.190 -0.049 2.629 0.166 0.270 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.992 0.268 0.437 3.158 0.190 0.488 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 130 0.997 0.368 0.868 4.573 0.265 0.705 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.023 0.660 3.143 18.915 0.313 0.758 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.408 0.179 0.010 -0.264 2.913 -0.216 0.858 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.216 SERIES 840032 AND 840041 93 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.858 SERIES 840071 AND 840072 73 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 45. 276. 325. RBAR 0.393 0.359 0.457 SDEV 0.244 0.233 0.245 SERR 0.036 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.929 0.935 0.956 NSS 20.2 25.5 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1842 1988 147 0.975 0.208 -0.042 2.836 0.137 0.676 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.282 0.122 0.129 54 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.50 1.01 1.05 1.55 40.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.671 0.528 0.365 0.241 0.137 0.077 -0.003 -0.088 -0.023 -0.006 PACF 0.671 0.141 -0.063 -0.045 -0.040 0.005 -0.072 -0.104 0.180 0.036 95% C.L. 0.165 0.227 0.259 0.272 0.278 0.280 0.280 0.280 0.281 0.281 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.485 0.582 0.151 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.658 0.532 0.391 0.243 0.124 0.061 -0.011 -0.081 -0.038 -0.043 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.658 2 0.542 0.176 3 0.546 0.190 -0.025 4 0.544 0.209 0.029 -0.099 5 0.536 0.211 0.044 -0.060 -0.073 6 0.537 0.211 0.044 -0.062 -0.078 0.009 7 0.537 0.208 0.042 -0.060 -0.070 0.030 -0.039 8 0.534 0.211 0.036 -0.065 -0.067 0.046 0.003 -0.077 9 0.543 0.210 0.031 -0.057 -0.059 0.042 -0.021 -0.137 0.112 10 0.542 0.211 0.031 -0.057 -0.059 0.043 -0.021 -0.139 0.109 0.006 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1185.39 1104.15 1101.51 1103.42 1103.96 1105.18 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1107.16 1108.94 1110.06 1110.19 1112.19 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.542 0.176 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 45.00 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 181.82 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.542 0.470 0.350 0.272 0.209 0.161 0.124 0.096 0.074 0.0568 0.044 0.034 0.026 0.020 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.0042 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 840011 2 0.323 0.460 0.160 2 840012 2 0.582 0.782 -0.025 3 840021 2 0.244 0.413 0.128 4 840022 2 0.400 0.571 0.088 5 840031 2 0.122 0.269 0.151 6 840032 2 0.529 0.576 0.190 7 840041 2 0.745 0.926 -0.088 8 840042 2 0.547 0.669 0.085 9 840051 2 0.440 0.705 -0.070 10 840052 2 0.577 0.673 0.094 11 840061 2 0.101 0.244 0.146 12 840062 2 0.265 0.325 0.276 13 840071 2 0.460 0.645 0.048 14 840072 2 0.288 0.511 0.045 15 840081 2 0.096 0.304 0.010 16 840082 2 0.272 0.423 0.154 17 840101 2 0.390 0.553 0.105 18 840102 2 0.315 0.502 0.095 19 840111 2 0.469 0.735 -0.077 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 840112 2 0.235 0.450 0.062 21 840121 2 0.319 0.435 0.186 22 840122 2 0.446 0.440 0.284 23 840141 2 0.527 0.545 0.230 24 840142 2 0.590 0.545 0.266 25 840151 2 0.615 0.644 0.165 26 840152 2 0.305 0.359 0.277 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.392 0.527 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.169 0.166 0.108 MEDIAN 2 0.395 0.528 0.116 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.256 0.221 0.139 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.096 0.244 -0.088 LOWER HINGE 2 0.272 0.423 0.048 UPPER HINGE 2 0.529 0.645 0.186 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.745 0.926 0.284 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 840011 1849 1988 140 1.000 0.221 1.238 7.315 0.225 0.020 2 840012 1859 1988 130 1.000 0.233 0.640 4.031 0.255 0.013 3 840021 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.190 0.196 3.830 0.216 -0.011 4 840022 1882 1988 107 1.000 0.222 0.523 3.951 0.240 0.005 5 840031 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.241 0.034 3.524 0.272 0.006 6 840032 1895 1988 94 1.000 0.299 0.568 4.645 0.307 0.067 7 840041 1858 1987 130 1.000 0.298 0.428 4.643 0.350 -0.216 8 840042 1886 1987 102 1.000 0.195 0.299 4.673 0.222 0.007 9 840051 1897 1988 92 1.000 0.227 0.664 3.347 0.250 0.019 10 840052 1893 1988 96 1.000 0.217 0.357 3.352 0.241 0.032 11 840061 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.205 0.034 3.436 0.221 0.004 12 840062 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.219 0.305 3.807 0.239 -0.009 13 840071 1907 1988 82 1.000 0.242 -0.012 3.146 0.293 0.013 14 840072 1916 1988 73 1.000 0.295 0.928 6.265 0.335 0.025 15 840081 1893 1988 96 1.000 0.181 0.040 4.099 0.194 0.008 16 840082 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.212 1.109 5.560 0.209 0.022 17 840101 1843 1988 146 1.000 0.336 0.465 4.232 0.371 -0.006 18 840102 1852 1988 137 1.000 0.305 0.108 3.272 0.373 0.003 19 840111 1894 1988 95 1.000 0.282 1.045 4.787 0.299 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 840112 1899 1988 90 1.000 0.274 1.084 6.070 0.295 -0.005 21 840121 1861 1988 128 1.000 0.304 0.881 4.460 0.313 -0.024 22 840122 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.321 0.565 3.443 0.361 -0.049 23 840141 1850 1988 139 1.000 0.218 0.715 4.243 0.233 -0.007 24 840142 1842 1988 147 1.000 0.209 0.442 2.813 0.241 -0.039 25 840151 1850 1986 137 1.000 0.251 0.072 3.446 0.281 0.008 26 840152 1863 1988 126 1.000 0.234 0.362 4.178 0.245 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 1.000 0.247 0.503 4.253 0.273 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.044 0.371 1.062 0.053 0.049 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 104 1.000 0.233 0.453 4.065 0.252 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.078 0.519 1.202 0.074 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 73 1.000 0.181 -0.012 2.813 0.194 -0.216 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.217 0.196 3.443 0.233 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 130 1.000 0.295 0.715 4.645 0.307 0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 147 1.000 0.336 1.238 7.315 0.373 0.067 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.373 0.114 0.006 0.211 3.572 0.075 0.832 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.075 SERIES 840022 AND 840112 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.832 SERIES 840071 AND 840072 73 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 67.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 45. 276. 325. RBAR 0.394 0.360 0.384 SDEV 0.153 0.143 0.153 SERR 0.023 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.929 0.935 0.942 NSS 20.2 25.5 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1842 1988 147 0.991 0.145 -0.295 3.287 0.155 0.072 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.387 0.186 0.007 53 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.74 1.01 1.11 1.84 9.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.071 0.090 0.062 0.004 -0.004 0.020 -0.059 -0.222 0.001 0.109 PACF 0.071 0.086 0.051 -0.011 -0.014 0.019 -0.060 -0.222 0.036 0.164 95% C.L. 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.176 0.176 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.002 0.054 -0.007 -0.004 0.043 -0.049 -0.235 0.005 0.128 PACF -0.004 -0.002 0.054 -0.006 -0.004 0.040 -0.049 -0.236 -0.003 0.144 95% C.L. 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.175 0.175 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 -0.004 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1842 1988 147 0.983 0.191 0.020 2.952 0.133 0.636 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.632 0.496 0.369 0.242 0.152 0.090 -0.008 -0.109 -0.031 -0.006 PACF 0.632 0.160 0.007 -0.060 -0.033 -0.009 -0.098 -0.124 0.180 0.067 95% C.L. 0.165 0.221 0.250 0.264 0.270 0.272 0.273 0.273 0.274 0.274 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.427 0.534 0.166 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 2624.44 MINUTES