RUN: CANA5 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me4 DATA FILE PROCESSED: CANA112E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CANA112E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 679 1 Kootenai Pass WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 679 2 Canada Engelmann spruce 1850 4905-11645 1701 1983 - 679 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 679042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1768 1768 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 679062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 679112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1795 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 679011 1772 1983 212 1.270 0.348 -0.236 2.752 0.210 0.524 2 679012 1803 1983 181 1.232 0.272 0.335 3.370 0.184 0.428 3 679021 1753 1983 231 1.196 0.575 0.759 2.461 0.209 0.857 4 679022 1743 1983 241 1.165 0.410 0.266 2.354 0.182 0.816 5 679031 1718 1983 266 0.896 0.398 0.912 3.309 0.220 0.834 6 679032 1727 1983 257 0.856 0.456 1.395 4.330 0.212 0.877 7 679041 1733 1983 251 1.009 0.257 -0.319 3.194 0.162 0.704 8 679042 1746 1983 238 1.169 0.305 0.331 2.863 0.166 0.642 9 679051 1815 1983 169 1.227 0.283 0.448 4.569 0.207 0.403 10 679052 1816 1983 168 1.188 0.213 0.363 3.488 0.156 0.382 11 679061 1763 1983 221 0.821 0.270 0.544 3.040 0.222 0.636 12 679062 1774 1983 210 1.100 0.303 0.351 3.072 0.180 0.677 13 679071 1739 1983 245 1.190 0.394 2.141 8.670 0.153 0.737 14 679072 1723 1983 261 1.065 0.497 1.355 4.520 0.181 0.875 15 679081 1726 1983 258 1.010 0.470 1.433 6.319 0.184 0.874 16 679082 1701 1983 283 1.032 0.475 1.563 5.508 0.185 0.871 17 679091 1753 1983 231 1.219 0.325 0.298 2.844 0.154 0.758 18 679092 1774 1983 210 1.256 0.374 0.183 2.312 0.155 0.796 19 679101 1725 1983 259 1.106 0.307 0.090 2.809 0.186 0.660 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 679102 1722 1983 262 1.109 0.316 0.167 2.650 0.172 0.725 21 679111 1709 1983 275 0.708 0.490 1.678 5.594 0.209 0.887 22 679112 1747 1983 237 0.883 0.280 1.110 3.882 0.198 0.619 23 679121 1732 1983 252 0.903 0.300 0.381 2.529 0.200 0.766 24 679122 1754 1983 230 0.925 0.371 0.754 3.153 0.219 0.749 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1701 TO 1983 283 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 235 1.064 0.362 0.679 3.733 0.188 0.712 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.158 0.093 0.637 1.515 0.023 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 239 1.103 0.336 0.415 3.173 0.185 0.743 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.279 0.141 0.950 1.645 0.040 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 168 0.708 0.213 -0.319 2.312 0.153 0.382 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 0.914 0.292 0.282 2.780 0.169 0.639 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.193 0.433 1.232 4.425 0.209 0.846 MAXIMUM VALUE 283 1.270 0.575 2.141 8.670 0.222 0.887 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.301 0.291 0.018 -0.090 2.444 -0.368 0.879 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.368 SERIES 679021 AND 679111 231 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.879 SERIES 679071 AND 679072 245 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 136. 210. 231. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.266 0.326 0.500 0.458 0.465 0.336 0.302 0.357 SDEV 0.460 0.279 0.227 0.224 0.200 0.211 0.244 0.245 SERR 0.069 0.024 0.016 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.856 0.908 0.957 0.953 0.954 0.924 0.912 0.930 NSS 16.3 20.3 22.4 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1983 283 1.085 0.273 1.182 5.366 0.151 0.689 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.571 0.320 0.007 47 236 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.34 1.00 1.06 1.40 3.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 240. 42. 168. 216. 258. 283. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.686 0.654 0.634 0.595 0.577 0.532 0.505 0.492 0.498 0.441 PACF 0.686 0.346 0.221 0.103 0.088 0.006 0.009 0.037 0.087 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.119 0.166 0.199 0.226 0.247 0.265 0.280 0.292 0.304 0.315 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.575 0.323 0.203 0.172 0.091 0.087 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 679011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003613 1.26601088 2 679012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134523 1.35434985 3 679021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00094000 1.08732355 4 679022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00246519 0.86664939 5 679031 1 1.33012819 0.01403380 0.00000000 0.55022699 6 679032 1 1.72706354 0.02507899 0.00000000 0.59212303 7 679041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00149496 0.82103682 8 679042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00264984 0.85139441 9 679051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00210400 1.04837906 10 679052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089927 1.11186910 11 679061 1 0.64978445 0.04799580 0.00000000 0.76160425 12 679062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00059773 1.03251266 13 679071 1 1.66198254 0.04182374 0.00000000 1.03126419 14 679072 1 1.63504708 0.02080140 0.00000000 0.76864672 15 679081 1 1.79957914 0.02996626 0.00000000 0.78078157 16 679082 1 1.08403301 0.00956931 0.00000000 0.65976387 17 679091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00204051 0.98195899 18 679092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00267150 0.97458512 19 679101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056452 1.03248096 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 679102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00138730 0.92627180 21 679111 1 1.47136843 0.01512108 0.00000000 0.36204958 22 679112 1 0.65052158 0.00936118 0.00000000 0.62550664 23 679121 1 0.17557487 0.00945313 0.00000000 0.83651936 24 679122 1 0.89216012 0.01770835 0.00000000 0.71159494 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 679011 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.274 -0.235 2.752 0.209 0.521 2 679012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.212 0.220 3.415 0.183 0.389 3 679021 1753 1983 231 0.999 0.471 0.719 2.477 0.208 0.849 4 679022 1743 1983 241 0.999 0.324 0.421 2.681 0.181 0.759 5 679031 1718 1983 266 1.000 0.250 -0.102 3.064 0.219 0.412 6 679032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.292 0.636 4.163 0.211 0.612 7 679041 1733 1983 251 0.999 0.244 0.150 3.346 0.162 0.670 8 679042 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.212 0.226 2.629 0.166 0.495 9 679051 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.214 0.308 4.328 0.206 0.294 10 679052 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.176 0.353 3.504 0.155 0.348 11 679061 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.301 0.599 3.593 0.221 0.594 12 679062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.273 0.257 2.865 0.182 0.663 13 679071 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.179 0.156 2.798 0.152 0.415 14 679072 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.281 0.302 2.672 0.180 0.695 15 679081 1726 1983 258 1.001 0.295 -0.222 3.877 0.183 0.725 16 679082 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.330 0.339 2.758 0.185 0.768 17 679091 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.241 0.062 2.811 0.153 0.700 18 679092 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.260 -0.125 2.803 0.155 0.726 19 679101 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.278 0.225 3.059 0.185 0.649 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 679102 1722 1983 262 1.001 0.278 0.543 4.367 0.171 0.695 21 679111 1709 1983 275 1.006 0.419 0.504 2.847 0.209 0.810 22 679112 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.241 0.374 3.214 0.197 0.441 23 679121 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.322 0.191 2.396 0.199 0.751 24 679122 1754 1983 230 1.000 0.319 0.326 2.723 0.218 0.674 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 235 1.000 0.279 0.260 3.131 0.187 0.611 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.001 0.068 0.255 0.576 0.023 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.276 0.279 2.856 0.184 0.666 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.069 0.245 0.722 0.040 0.257 MINIMUM VALUE 168 0.999 0.176 -0.235 2.396 0.152 0.294 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 1.000 0.241 0.153 2.738 0.168 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.310 0.397 3.460 0.208 0.726 MAXIMUM VALUE 283 1.006 0.471 0.719 4.367 0.221 0.849 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 679011 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 679012 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 679021 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 679022 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 679031 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 679032 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 679041 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 679042 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 679051 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 679052 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 679061 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 679062 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 679071 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 679072 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 679081 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 679082 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 679091 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 679092 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 679101 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 679102 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 679111 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 679112 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 679121 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 679122 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 679011 1772 1983 212 0.997 0.258 -0.294 2.977 0.210 0.462 2 679012 1803 1983 181 0.999 0.206 0.226 3.147 0.183 0.348 3 679021 1753 1983 231 0.986 0.272 0.318 2.642 0.208 0.564 4 679022 1743 1983 241 0.989 0.243 0.225 3.203 0.181 0.596 5 679031 1718 1983 266 0.998 0.239 -0.097 3.232 0.219 0.351 6 679032 1727 1983 257 0.996 0.256 0.366 3.640 0.211 0.493 7 679041 1733 1983 251 0.997 0.223 0.290 3.372 0.162 0.599 8 679042 1746 1983 238 0.999 0.207 0.188 2.635 0.166 0.476 9 679051 1815 1983 169 0.998 0.202 0.180 4.237 0.206 0.215 10 679052 1816 1983 168 0.999 0.166 0.235 3.410 0.155 0.283 11 679061 1763 1983 221 0.996 0.281 0.542 3.542 0.221 0.534 12 679062 1774 1983 210 0.996 0.246 0.210 2.910 0.182 0.584 13 679071 1739 1983 245 0.999 0.173 0.089 2.765 0.152 0.366 14 679072 1723 1983 261 0.995 0.255 0.389 2.896 0.180 0.622 15 679081 1726 1983 258 0.991 0.209 -0.036 3.591 0.183 0.464 16 679082 1701 1983 283 0.990 0.281 0.138 2.942 0.184 0.679 17 679091 1753 1983 231 0.995 0.206 0.169 3.279 0.153 0.586 18 679092 1774 1983 210 0.992 0.205 0.143 3.345 0.154 0.573 19 679101 1725 1983 259 0.996 0.251 0.161 2.973 0.185 0.573 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 679102 1722 1983 262 0.995 0.227 0.389 3.598 0.171 0.536 21 679111 1709 1983 275 0.984 0.274 0.094 2.744 0.209 0.553 22 679112 1747 1983 237 0.998 0.218 0.123 3.228 0.197 0.333 23 679121 1732 1983 252 0.989 0.259 0.040 2.722 0.199 0.596 24 679122 1754 1983 230 0.995 0.284 0.110 2.562 0.218 0.586 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 235 0.995 0.235 0.175 3.150 0.187 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.004 0.034 0.173 0.404 0.023 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 239 0.996 0.241 0.174 3.175 0.184 0.545 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.006 0.052 0.161 0.560 0.040 0.172 MINIMUM VALUE 168 0.984 0.166 -0.294 2.562 0.152 0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 0.992 0.206 0.102 2.831 0.168 0.414 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 0.998 0.258 0.263 3.391 0.208 0.586 MAXIMUM VALUE 283 0.999 0.284 0.542 4.237 0.221 0.679 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.390 0.127 0.008 0.137 3.593 0.014 0.789 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.014 SERIES 679021 AND 679062 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.789 SERIES 679091 AND 679092 210 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 136. 210. 231. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.266 0.320 0.502 0.501 0.469 0.359 0.333 0.394 SDEV 0.287 0.188 0.170 0.190 0.184 0.194 0.230 0.196 SERR 0.043 0.016 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.856 0.905 0.958 0.960 0.955 0.931 0.923 0.940 NSS 16.3 20.3 22.4 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1983 283 0.969 0.183 -0.368 3.094 0.161 0.434 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.304 0.118 0.071 81 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.32 1.00 1.05 1.36 4.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.432 0.362 0.364 0.337 0.258 0.251 0.164 0.195 0.174 0.109 PACF 0.432 0.215 0.191 0.123 0.012 0.044 -0.063 0.054 0.023 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.119 0.139 0.152 0.164 0.173 0.179 0.184 0.186 0.189 0.191 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.281 0.261 0.132 0.165 0.146 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.328 0.233 0.269 0.243 0.117 0.173 0.050 0.111 0.076 0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.328 2 0.282 0.141 3 0.256 0.091 0.179 4 0.236 0.080 0.151 0.112 5 0.241 0.087 0.154 0.121 -0.040 6 0.244 0.077 0.142 0.114 -0.060 0.080 7 0.252 0.071 0.153 0.128 -0.053 0.104 -0.095 8 0.258 0.064 0.156 0.119 -0.063 0.099 -0.113 0.072 9 0.259 0.063 0.157 0.118 -0.063 0.099 -0.113 0.073 -0.006 10 0.259 0.066 0.153 0.122 -0.065 0.104 -0.107 0.075 0.003 -0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2251.62 2221.46 2217.77 2210.52 2208.96 2210.50 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2210.66 2210.08 2210.63 2212.62 2214.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.236 0.080 0.151 0.112 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.39 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.60 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.236 0.136 0.202 0.206 0.112 0.089 0.084 0.067 0.048 0.0393 0.033 0.026 0.020 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.0041 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 679011 4 0.272 0.338 0.120 0.168 0.027 2 679012 4 0.150 0.314 0.015 0.152 0.015 3 679021 4 0.370 0.399 0.159 0.111 0.058 4 679022 4 0.421 0.412 0.170 0.104 0.077 5 679031 4 0.174 0.313 0.028 0.183 -0.024 6 679032 4 0.266 0.418 0.109 0.035 0.047 7 679041 4 0.400 0.454 0.212 0.033 0.011 8 679042 4 0.297 0.356 0.107 0.153 0.040 9 679051 4 0.115 0.212 -0.085 0.197 0.103 10 679052 4 0.113 0.253 -0.006 0.153 0.068 11 679061 4 0.332 0.429 0.103 0.105 0.028 12 679062 4 0.367 0.488 0.104 0.033 0.069 13 679071 4 0.171 0.304 0.050 0.163 0.027 14 679072 4 0.456 0.407 0.217 0.059 0.104 15 679081 4 0.262 0.351 0.142 0.054 0.100 16 679082 4 0.534 0.438 0.121 0.127 0.153 17 679091 4 0.378 0.483 0.063 0.146 0.016 18 679092 4 0.354 0.486 0.088 0.107 -0.013 19 679101 4 0.364 0.490 0.069 0.132 -0.009 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 679102 4 0.359 0.398 0.103 0.242 -0.037 21 679111 4 0.388 0.357 0.177 0.101 0.126 22 679112 4 0.163 0.254 0.144 0.114 0.035 23 679121 4 0.423 0.414 0.133 0.036 0.197 24 679122 4 0.412 0.411 0.097 0.066 0.203 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.314 0.383 0.102 0.115 0.059 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.116 0.078 0.069 0.057 0.064 MEDIAN 4 0.356 0.403 0.105 0.112 0.043 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.176 0.108 0.077 0.091 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.113 0.212 -0.085 0.033 -0.037 LOWER HINGE 4 0.218 0.326 0.066 0.062 0.016 UPPER HINGE 4 0.394 0.433 0.143 0.153 0.102 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.534 0.490 0.217 0.242 0.203 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 679011 1772 1983 212 1.000 0.220 -0.196 4.041 0.246 -0.003 2 679012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.190 0.143 3.412 0.209 -0.002 3 679021 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.216 0.329 3.233 0.246 -0.001 4 679022 1743 1983 241 1.000 0.185 0.268 2.942 0.212 -0.004 5 679031 1718 1983 266 1.000 0.219 -0.145 3.830 0.244 0.001 6 679032 1727 1983 257 1.000 0.219 0.151 3.797 0.250 0.006 7 679041 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.173 0.172 2.922 0.197 -0.002 8 679042 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.176 -0.100 3.133 0.197 0.005 9 679051 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.191 0.036 3.796 0.216 -0.008 10 679052 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.157 0.128 3.503 0.172 0.003 11 679061 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.232 0.342 3.511 0.261 -0.003 12 679062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.196 0.253 3.359 0.220 0.001 13 679071 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.157 -0.041 2.912 0.171 0.002 14 679072 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.187 0.252 2.631 0.211 -0.007 15 679081 1726 1983 258 1.000 0.180 -0.021 3.725 0.206 -0.001 16 679082 1701 1983 283 1.000 0.191 0.034 3.129 0.216 0.006 17 679091 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.162 0.080 3.465 0.184 -0.003 18 679092 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.165 -0.047 3.063 0.189 0.005 19 679101 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.199 0.403 3.590 0.221 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 679102 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.181 0.311 3.674 0.200 -0.002 21 679111 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.213 0.092 3.387 0.240 -0.010 22 679112 1747 1983 237 1.000 0.199 0.134 3.372 0.221 -0.008 23 679121 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.197 0.088 3.231 0.227 0.000 24 679122 1754 1983 230 1.000 0.218 -0.174 2.956 0.254 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 235 1.000 0.193 0.104 3.359 0.217 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.022 0.170 0.355 0.025 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 239 1.000 0.191 0.110 3.379 0.216 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.036 0.283 0.536 0.043 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 168 1.000 0.157 -0.196 2.631 0.171 -0.010 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 1.000 0.178 -0.031 3.096 0.199 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.214 0.252 3.632 0.242 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 283 1.000 0.232 0.403 4.041 0.261 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.492 0.084 0.005 0.793 4.264 0.317 0.772 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.317 SERIES 679011 AND 679091 212 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.772 SERIES 679041 AND 679042 238 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 136. 210. 231. 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.427 0.445 0.558 0.601 0.518 0.447 0.411 0.438 SDEV 0.153 0.142 0.119 0.119 0.131 0.136 0.145 0.128 SERR 0.023 0.012 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.924 0.942 0.966 0.973 0.963 0.951 0.944 0.949 NSS 16.3 20.3 22.4 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1983 283 0.997 0.139 -0.157 3.180 0.166 -0.137 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.243 0.094 0.039 93 190 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.34 1.00 1.06 1.40 16.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.137 -0.021 -0.020 0.020 -0.063 0.070 -0.056 0.036 0.042 -0.028 PACF -0.137 -0.041 -0.029 0.012 -0.061 0.055 -0.043 0.024 0.052 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.137 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.002 0.000 -0.007 -0.054 0.059 -0.042 0.034 0.043 -0.031 PACF 0.000 -0.002 0.000 -0.007 -0.054 0.060 -0.043 0.035 0.042 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.003 0.000 -0.002 0.000 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1983 283 0.998 0.149 -0.113 2.954 0.140 0.315 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.314 0.219 0.253 0.213 0.102 0.143 0.061 0.085 0.074 0.002 PACF 0.314 0.134 0.171 0.090 -0.033 0.061 -0.051 0.041 0.014 -0.061 95% C.L. 0.119 0.130 0.135 0.142 0.146 0.147 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.151 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.155 0.230 0.080 0.153 0.102 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES