RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO552I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO552I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 754 1 Red Mtn.Pass, (Silverton DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 754 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 3754-10743 1626 1983 754 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 3.036 0.292 1.648 5.561 0.036 0.810 2 754012 1875 1983 109 2.845 0.186 0.232 3.094 0.040 0.665 3 754021 1702 1983 282 2.910 0.225 0.777 4.533 0.046 0.692 4 754022 1694 1983 290 2.824 0.182 0.402 3.139 0.041 0.667 5 754031 1816 1983 168 3.081 0.210 0.461 3.238 0.049 0.560 6 754032 1825 1983 159 3.204 0.165 0.147 2.880 0.040 0.512 7 754041 1792 1983 192 2.864 0.266 1.039 5.053 0.044 0.802 8 754042 1802 1983 182 2.786 0.180 0.475 4.259 0.050 0.419 9 754051 1730 1983 254 3.415 0.176 0.247 3.766 0.044 0.421 10 754052 1775 1983 209 3.171 0.279 2.691 16.450 0.046 0.638 11 754061 1793 1983 191 2.899 0.226 0.872 3.838 0.043 0.741 12 754062 1774 1983 210 3.058 0.246 0.121 3.576 0.045 0.669 13 754071 1711 1983 273 3.370 0.243 1.150 5.659 0.047 0.622 14 754072 1626 1983 358 3.681 0.415 1.043 3.177 0.042 0.869 15 754081 1863 1983 121 3.217 0.176 0.691 3.441 0.042 0.463 16 754082 1818 1983 166 3.208 0.269 0.773 3.756 0.050 0.634 17 754091 1668 1979 312 3.482 0.440 0.450 2.971 0.058 0.782 18 754092 1669 1961 293 3.604 0.362 0.205 2.400 0.058 0.723 19 754101 1759 1983 225 3.253 0.178 0.986 4.846 0.037 0.502 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 3.390 0.207 0.772 5.680 0.035 0.673 21 754111 1781 1983 203 3.277 0.286 0.842 4.961 0.051 0.584 22 754112 1799 1983 185 3.241 0.278 0.288 3.450 0.054 0.594 23 754121 1793 1983 191 3.051 0.264 1.125 5.584 0.045 0.729 24 754122 1777 1983 207 3.107 0.296 1.210 3.781 0.039 0.855 25 754131 1823 1983 161 3.110 0.158 1.481 7.281 0.040 0.452 26 754132 1806 1983 178 3.391 0.260 3.888 23.042 0.037 0.638 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1626 TO 1983 358 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 3.172 0.249 0.924 5.362 0.045 0.643 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.240 0.073 0.827 4.483 0.006 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 3.188 0.244 0.775 3.810 0.044 0.652 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.334 0.097 0.723 2.323 0.008 0.169 MINIMUM VALUE 85 2.786 0.158 0.121 2.400 0.035 0.419 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 3.036 0.182 0.402 3.238 0.040 0.560 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 3.370 0.279 1.125 5.561 0.049 0.729 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 3.681 0.440 3.888 23.042 0.058 0.869 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.179 0.224 0.012 -0.081 2.722 -0.392 0.760 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.392 SERIES 754052 AND 754092 187 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.760 SERIES 754011 AND 754111 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.244 0.535 0.290 0.317 0.220 0.221 0.250 0.291 0.268 0.232 SDEV 0.269 0.169 0.273 0.213 0.293 0.262 0.219 0.256 0.202 0.215 SERR 0.155 0.053 0.060 0.040 0.036 0.021 0.014 0.016 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.601 0.885 0.776 0.849 0.833 0.860 0.886 0.910 0.904 0.887 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.349 SDEV 0.177 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.932 NSS 25.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 3.416 0.451 1.544 4.256 0.036 0.901 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.488 -0.169 0.878 70 288 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.43 1.00 1.05 1.49 361.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.81 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 86. 85. 168. 254. 358. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.899 0.870 0.863 0.861 0.851 0.826 0.814 0.798 0.786 0.790 PACF 0.899 0.324 0.251 0.199 0.105 -0.026 0.014 -0.023 -0.006 0.113 95% C.L. 0.106 0.171 0.215 0.251 0.282 0.309 0.333 0.354 0.374 0.392 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.879 0.355 0.114 0.155 0.192 0.160 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 1 1.21176600 0.07619791 0.00000000 2.85598898 2 754012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00359781 3.04301739 3 754021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134044 3.10016942 4 754022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017626 2.85012794 5 754031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006884 3.07513547 6 754032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118316 3.10937262 7 754041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00148248 3.00670528 8 754042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095186 2.69905901 9 754051 1 0.20589076 0.02007517 0.00000000 3.37550616 10 754052 1 1.05292881 0.04025558 0.00000000 3.04838824 11 754061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00233377 2.67512035 12 754062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096314 2.95596027 13 754071 1 1.16538775 0.09645244 0.00000000 3.32751226 14 754072 1 1.37842572 0.01155750 0.00000000 3.35461736 15 754081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006429 3.22069836 16 754082 1 0.66218001 0.01403292 0.00000000 2.95292997 17 754091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099535 3.32640767 18 754092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00132467 3.40906262 19 754101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078775 3.16409564 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037856 3.34377480 21 754111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00238440 3.52005601 22 754112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00165976 3.39516807 23 754121 1 0.26814410 0.03847724 0.00000000 3.01533437 24 754122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00144675 3.25722480 25 754131 1 0.75663090 0.21972494 0.00000000 3.09087539 26 754132 1 2.32680941 0.24731819 0.00000000 3.34391785 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.037 0.234 2.808 0.035 0.213 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.052 1.113 5.217 0.040 0.446 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.067 0.657 3.606 0.045 0.598 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.064 0.380 3.078 0.041 0.663 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.068 0.475 3.241 0.048 0.557 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.049 0.314 3.016 0.040 0.454 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.087 0.725 4.096 0.044 0.779 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.062 0.761 5.740 0.050 0.369 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.049 0.082 3.475 0.043 0.367 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.051 0.709 6.019 0.046 0.261 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.063 1.216 5.032 0.043 0.599 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.079 0.474 3.664 0.045 0.642 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.058 0.594 3.907 0.047 0.468 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.060 0.550 3.139 0.042 0.585 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.055 0.675 3.439 0.042 0.459 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.066 1.075 5.003 0.050 0.426 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.125 0.787 3.898 0.058 0.774 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.096 0.277 2.868 0.058 0.697 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.053 1.323 7.146 0.037 0.458 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.061 1.044 6.692 0.034 0.665 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.076 1.155 5.019 0.051 0.479 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.081 0.497 3.187 0.054 0.552 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.084 0.866 4.754 0.045 0.710 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.091 1.260 4.128 0.039 0.838 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.044 0.914 4.497 0.040 0.303 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.043 0.732 4.830 0.036 0.366 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.066 0.726 4.288 0.044 0.528 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.020 0.339 1.193 0.006 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.063 0.717 4.001 0.044 0.515 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.026 0.569 1.778 0.008 0.237 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.037 0.082 2.808 0.034 0.213 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.052 0.475 3.241 0.040 0.426 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.079 1.044 5.019 0.048 0.663 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.125 1.323 7.146 0.058 0.838 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 754012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 754021 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 754022 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 754031 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 754032 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 754041 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 754042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 754051 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 754052 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 754061 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 754062 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 754071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 754072 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 754081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 754082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 754091 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 754092 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 754101 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 754111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 754112 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 754121 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 754122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 754131 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 754132 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.035 0.321 2.940 0.035 0.151 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.047 0.802 4.773 0.040 0.341 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.063 0.826 4.238 0.046 0.542 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.053 0.211 3.432 0.041 0.504 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.059 0.527 3.309 0.048 0.427 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.046 0.457 3.251 0.040 0.377 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.081 0.753 4.347 0.044 0.744 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.059 0.767 5.987 0.050 0.296 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.049 0.119 3.323 0.043 0.343 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.050 0.818 6.564 0.046 0.236 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.056 0.914 4.340 0.042 0.492 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.061 1.045 6.557 0.045 0.394 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.052 0.414 3.432 0.047 0.353 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.053 0.584 3.508 0.042 0.476 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.049 0.688 3.269 0.041 0.328 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.064 1.139 5.504 0.050 0.391 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.999 0.073 0.924 5.960 0.058 0.413 18 754092 1669 1961 293 0.999 0.069 0.601 3.360 0.058 0.432 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.046 1.524 8.978 0.037 0.290 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.050 0.635 5.311 0.034 0.529 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.064 1.599 7.658 0.051 0.262 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.063 0.733 4.097 0.053 0.278 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.075 1.164 5.715 0.045 0.640 24 754122 1777 1983 207 0.999 0.072 0.659 3.135 0.039 0.743 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.042 0.880 4.947 0.040 0.239 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.040 0.558 5.348 0.036 0.266 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.057 0.756 4.742 0.044 0.403 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.012 0.349 1.556 0.006 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.055 0.743 4.343 0.044 0.384 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.015 0.356 2.355 0.008 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.999 0.035 0.119 2.940 0.034 0.151 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.049 0.558 3.360 0.040 0.290 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.064 0.914 5.715 0.048 0.492 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.081 1.599 8.978 0.058 0.744 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.258 0.115 0.006 0.170 3.416 -0.047 0.605 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.047 SERIES 754031 AND 754122 168 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.605 SERIES 754072 AND 754082 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.209 0.449 0.293 0.375 0.237 0.228 0.275 0.318 0.288 0.248 SDEV 0.103 0.155 0.204 0.165 0.268 0.208 0.199 0.201 0.166 0.176 SERR 0.059 0.049 0.045 0.031 0.033 0.017 0.013 0.013 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.553 0.844 0.778 0.879 0.846 0.865 0.899 0.920 0.912 0.895 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.357 SDEV 0.159 SERR 0.009 EPS 0.934 NSS 25.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.995 0.040 0.316 3.013 0.035 0.383 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.206 0.118 -0.077 124 234 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.88 1.01 1.12 2.00 317.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.382 0.282 0.199 0.228 0.092 0.126 0.117 0.068 -0.047 -0.058 PACF 0.382 0.159 0.057 0.126 -0.067 0.059 0.043 -0.035 -0.110 -0.060 95% C.L. 0.106 0.120 0.127 0.131 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.139 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.172 0.322 0.160 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.314 0.293 0.145 0.162 -0.049 0.042 0.029 -0.003 -0.093 -0.093 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.314 2 0.246 0.216 3 0.245 0.214 0.006 4 0.245 0.199 -0.012 0.072 5 0.256 0.197 0.020 0.111 -0.159 6 0.263 0.192 0.019 0.102 -0.171 0.045 7 0.261 0.202 0.013 0.101 -0.181 0.030 0.055 8 0.263 0.203 0.006 0.105 -0.181 0.039 0.066 -0.042 9 0.259 0.209 0.009 0.089 -0.171 0.039 0.084 -0.018 -0.091 10 0.252 0.207 0.016 0.092 -0.185 0.046 0.085 -0.001 -0.070 -0.080 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1678.14 1642.95 1627.87 1629.86 1630.01 1622.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1624.08 1625.00 1626.38 1625.41 1625.13 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.246 0.216 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.07 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 116.37 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.246 0.277 0.121 0.090 0.048 0.031 0.018 0.011 0.007 0.0041 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 754011 2 0.050 0.152 0.013 2 754012 2 0.135 0.315 0.095 3 754021 2 0.346 0.427 0.224 4 754022 2 0.296 0.407 0.208 5 754031 2 0.236 0.335 0.232 6 754032 2 0.175 0.346 0.085 7 754041 2 0.570 0.620 0.169 8 754042 2 0.124 0.274 0.076 9 754051 2 0.150 0.279 0.189 10 754052 2 0.066 0.250 0.020 11 754061 2 0.290 0.376 0.236 12 754062 2 0.241 0.312 0.260 13 754071 2 0.178 0.278 0.213 14 754072 2 0.275 0.384 0.193 15 754081 2 0.139 0.275 0.171 16 754082 2 0.192 0.312 0.202 17 754091 2 0.199 0.343 0.175 18 754092 2 0.242 0.327 0.246 19 754101 2 0.088 0.280 0.042 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 754102 2 0.330 0.426 0.202 21 754111 2 0.115 0.248 0.116 22 754112 2 0.079 0.280 0.003 23 754121 2 0.454 0.468 0.270 24 754122 2 0.582 0.597 0.205 25 754131 2 0.064 0.222 0.078 26 754132 2 0.071 0.269 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.219 0.339 0.150 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.146 0.106 0.087 MEDIAN 2 0.185 0.314 0.182 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.175 0.110 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.050 0.152 -0.012 LOWER HINGE 2 0.115 0.275 0.078 UPPER HINGE 2 0.290 0.384 0.213 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.582 0.620 0.270 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.035 0.395 3.091 0.037 -0.002 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.044 0.827 5.140 0.047 0.000 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.051 0.734 4.350 0.057 -0.033 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.044 0.039 3.178 0.050 -0.010 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.052 0.488 2.943 0.057 0.021 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.042 0.252 2.781 0.045 0.017 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.053 0.107 4.341 0.058 -0.010 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.056 1.077 8.517 0.056 -0.014 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.045 0.327 4.048 0.049 0.000 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.048 0.753 6.016 0.052 -0.015 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.047 0.571 4.483 0.052 -0.022 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.053 1.035 6.258 0.054 -0.051 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.048 0.440 3.611 0.054 -0.027 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.046 0.324 3.721 0.051 -0.031 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.045 0.884 3.751 0.048 -0.011 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.058 1.588 8.035 0.058 -0.015 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.066 1.147 8.428 0.068 -0.002 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.061 0.427 3.314 0.067 -0.020 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.044 1.766 10.943 0.042 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.041 0.975 7.367 0.043 -0.032 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.061 1.676 8.246 0.058 -0.030 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.061 0.605 4.453 0.061 0.001 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.056 0.675 5.148 0.057 0.002 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.046 0.287 2.989 0.051 -0.003 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.040 0.773 4.884 0.044 0.003 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.039 0.695 6.157 0.040 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.049 0.726 5.238 0.052 -0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.008 0.456 2.171 0.008 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.047 0.685 4.468 0.052 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.012 0.580 2.647 0.010 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.035 0.039 2.781 0.037 -0.051 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.044 0.395 3.611 0.047 -0.022 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.056 0.975 6.258 0.057 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.066 1.766 10.943 0.068 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.287 0.102 0.006 0.305 3.991 0.023 0.658 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.023 SERIES 754011 AND 754042 85 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.658 SERIES 754071 AND 754072 273 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.281 0.402 0.320 0.326 0.328 0.286 0.357 0.363 0.266 0.258 SDEV 0.098 0.140 0.144 0.149 0.175 0.187 0.154 0.145 0.144 0.147 SERR 0.057 0.044 0.031 0.028 0.021 0.015 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.645 0.818 0.800 0.854 0.896 0.897 0.929 0.933 0.903 0.900 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.357 SDEV 0.133 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.934 NSS 25.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.997 0.036 0.097 3.102 0.041 -0.061 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.243 0.127 -0.094 125 233 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.70 1.00 1.08 1.78 186.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.80 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.061 -0.080 -0.007 0.135 -0.062 0.022 0.068 0.037 -0.100 -0.022 PACF -0.061 -0.084 -0.018 0.128 -0.048 0.036 0.067 0.032 -0.073 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.110 0.110 0.111 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.010 -0.014 0.128 -0.048 0.036 0.059 0.035 -0.094 -0.027 PACF -0.002 0.010 -0.014 0.128 -0.048 0.035 0.064 0.017 -0.083 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.002 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.997 0.039 0.201 3.143 0.036 0.324 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.323 0.326 0.157 0.214 0.057 0.093 0.061 0.033 -0.076 -0.053 PACF 0.323 0.248 -0.002 0.114 -0.069 0.017 0.033 -0.037 -0.110 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.106 0.116 0.126 0.128 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.161 0.243 0.250 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES