RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO552L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO552L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 754 1 Red Mtn.Pass, (Silverton WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 754 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 3754-10743 1626 1983 754 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 754041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1894 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 754072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 4 GAPS / 1719 1723 / 1734 1738 / 1909 1913 / 1937 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 754091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 754092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1897 1901 / 1945 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 0.288 0.085 0.701 3.003 0.253 0.314 2 754012 1875 1983 109 0.275 0.085 0.513 2.642 0.226 0.539 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.135 0.078 1.863 6.475 0.180 0.835 4 754022 1694 1983 290 0.147 0.063 0.862 3.603 0.201 0.788 5 754031 1816 1983 168 0.170 0.054 0.829 3.539 0.243 0.474 6 754032 1825 1983 159 0.185 0.048 0.947 5.116 0.194 0.418 7 754041 1792 1983 192 0.151 0.126 2.781 11.742 0.232 0.842 8 754042 1802 1983 182 0.141 0.089 3.836 24.739 0.225 0.549 9 754051 1730 1983 254 0.149 0.076 2.376 11.070 0.243 0.712 10 754052 1775 1983 209 0.177 0.062 1.562 6.008 0.253 0.376 11 754061 1793 1983 191 0.139 0.043 2.303 12.930 0.207 0.406 12 754062 1774 1983 210 0.123 0.060 1.522 7.215 0.232 0.678 13 754071 1711 1983 273 0.104 0.032 0.714 3.220 0.170 0.727 14 754072 1626 1983 358 0.087 0.030 0.559 2.872 0.164 0.758 15 754081 1863 1983 121 0.093 0.029 1.710 6.463 0.262 0.195 16 754082 1818 1983 166 0.102 0.027 0.822 3.935 0.218 0.379 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.120 0.072 1.661 7.469 0.262 0.678 18 754092 1669 1961 293 0.115 0.074 1.121 3.603 0.226 0.827 19 754101 1759 1983 225 0.135 0.056 2.422 14.472 0.212 0.591 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 0.192 0.079 1.412 4.668 0.205 0.784 21 754111 1781 1983 203 0.120 0.037 0.651 3.416 0.199 0.621 22 754112 1799 1983 185 0.137 0.052 0.777 3.594 0.229 0.659 23 754121 1793 1983 191 0.165 0.115 3.347 17.625 0.242 0.700 24 754122 1777 1983 207 0.147 0.060 1.364 5.222 0.182 0.721 25 754131 1823 1983 161 0.140 0.048 2.859 17.636 0.214 0.529 26 754132 1806 1983 178 0.154 0.068 3.883 24.553 0.229 0.537 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1626 TO 1983 358 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 208 0.150 0.063 1.669 8.340 0.219 0.601 STANDARD DEVIATION 61 0.047 0.025 1.018 6.577 0.027 0.176 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.141 0.061 1.467 5.615 0.225 0.640 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.045 0.030 1.554 8.148 0.041 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.087 0.027 0.513 2.642 0.164 0.195 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.120 0.048 0.822 3.594 0.201 0.474 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 0.165 0.078 2.376 11.742 0.242 0.727 MAXIMUM VALUE 337 0.288 0.126 3.883 24.739 0.262 0.842 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.204 0.229 0.013 0.033 2.500 -0.351 0.762 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.351 SERIES 754072 AND 754112 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.762 SERIES 754021 AND 754092 260 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.099 0.174 0.080 0.136 0.222 0.182 0.204 0.254 0.123 0.090 SDEV 0.082 0.313 0.340 0.328 0.178 0.204 0.217 0.199 0.225 0.221 SERR 0.047 0.099 0.074 0.062 0.022 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.340 0.584 0.424 0.655 0.834 0.829 0.857 0.893 0.783 0.721 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.108 SDEV 0.227 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.755 NSS 25.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.136 0.041 0.942 5.432 0.142 0.726 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.671 0.589 -0.025 157 201 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.73 1.58 1.00 1.18 2.76 121.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.27 0.00 0.71 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 86. 85. 168. 254. 358. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.724 0.631 0.634 0.558 0.597 0.581 0.492 0.480 0.439 0.432 PACF 0.724 0.225 0.259 0.004 0.242 0.051 -0.076 0.008 -0.034 0.058 95% C.L. 0.106 0.151 0.178 0.202 0.218 0.236 0.251 0.262 0.272 0.279 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.580 0.503 0.078 0.261 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050459 0.30969748 2 754012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00116050 0.21103466 3 754021 1 0.30137891 0.02571133 0.00000000 0.09399667 4 754022 1 0.17176586 0.01036219 0.00000000 0.09254799 5 754031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037356 0.20192258 6 754032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018551 0.16981292 7 754041 1 0.34332994 0.01458356 0.00000000 0.03448327 8 754042 1 0.22558533 0.01418727 0.00000000 0.06064071 9 754051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001236 0.15019856 10 754052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006881 0.18392390 11 754061 1 0.10054805 0.02633203 0.00000000 0.11950982 12 754062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066255 0.19289953 13 754071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025388 0.13844404 14 754072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003676 0.09312931 15 754081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010385 0.08697107 16 754082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013622 0.09025192 17 754091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049587 0.19628380 18 754092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069078 0.21436685 19 754101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054464 0.19669960 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 1 0.25385302 0.01937485 0.00000000 0.13927013 21 754111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013360 0.10671804 22 754112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050785 0.08952703 23 754121 1 0.32193285 0.02727951 0.00000000 0.10462266 24 754122 1 0.17366369 0.01540039 0.00000000 0.09566048 25 754131 1 0.17948622 0.13154255 0.00000000 0.13231872 26 754132 1 0.35169777 0.13296086 0.00000000 0.13964522 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.295 0.837 3.356 0.251 0.308 2 754012 1875 1983 109 0.998 0.271 0.477 3.022 0.224 0.409 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.999 0.304 1.114 4.130 0.179 0.635 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.319 0.578 3.213 0.201 0.644 5 754031 1816 1983 168 0.999 0.293 0.792 3.582 0.242 0.430 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.259 1.097 5.554 0.193 0.399 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.014 0.445 2.276 9.432 0.229 0.652 8 754042 1802 1983 182 0.999 0.385 3.816 25.327 0.224 0.346 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.510 2.355 11.009 0.242 0.708 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.353 1.556 5.914 0.252 0.379 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.246 1.770 9.135 0.206 0.194 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.014 0.397 1.728 6.935 0.232 0.567 13 754071 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.234 0.406 2.911 0.169 0.571 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.333 0.467 2.786 0.164 0.762 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.315 1.874 7.483 0.260 0.178 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.256 0.855 4.645 0.217 0.330 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.016 0.482 1.502 6.190 0.260 0.622 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.120 0.661 2.474 9.891 0.225 0.847 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.268 1.629 10.552 0.211 0.332 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.253 1.171 5.390 0.204 0.421 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.298 0.514 3.051 0.198 0.582 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.005 0.327 0.393 3.010 0.228 0.557 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.417 3.199 18.277 0.240 0.461 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.264 1.275 7.080 0.181 0.445 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.269 1.017 4.617 0.214 0.370 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.286 1.526 7.345 0.227 0.367 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.006 0.336 1.411 7.071 0.218 0.481 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.024 0.099 0.873 5.130 0.027 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.301 1.223 5.734 0.224 0.438 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.117 0.978 5.779 0.040 0.255 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.998 0.234 0.393 2.786 0.164 0.178 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.268 0.792 3.356 0.201 0.367 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.385 1.770 9.135 0.240 0.622 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.120 0.661 3.816 25.327 0.260 0.847 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 754012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 754021 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 754022 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 754031 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 754032 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 754041 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 754042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 754051 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 754052 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 754061 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 754062 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 754071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 754072 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 754081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 754082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 754091 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 754092 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 754101 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 754111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 754112 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 754121 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 754122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 754131 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 754132 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 0.998 0.271 1.239 4.851 0.251 0.199 2 754012 1875 1983 109 0.997 0.237 0.685 3.591 0.224 0.257 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.996 0.241 0.710 3.908 0.180 0.458 4 754022 1694 1983 290 0.993 0.256 0.847 5.209 0.201 0.410 5 754031 1816 1983 168 0.998 0.264 0.662 3.409 0.242 0.310 6 754032 1825 1983 159 0.998 0.227 1.092 5.392 0.193 0.237 7 754041 1792 1983 192 0.995 0.387 2.764 12.644 0.228 0.546 8 754042 1802 1983 182 0.997 0.369 4.288 30.746 0.224 0.288 9 754051 1730 1983 254 0.990 0.403 2.094 9.646 0.243 0.557 10 754052 1775 1983 209 0.999 0.342 1.473 5.722 0.252 0.336 11 754061 1793 1983 191 0.999 0.234 1.739 8.633 0.206 0.131 12 754062 1774 1983 210 0.992 0.326 2.685 16.578 0.232 0.338 13 754071 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.223 0.383 3.038 0.169 0.524 14 754072 1626 1983 358 0.993 0.275 0.768 4.268 0.164 0.671 15 754081 1863 1983 121 0.999 0.312 1.940 7.762 0.260 0.150 16 754082 1818 1983 166 0.998 0.244 0.988 5.004 0.217 0.254 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.983 0.375 1.789 8.701 0.260 0.435 18 754092 1669 1961 293 0.990 0.312 1.284 7.192 0.224 0.524 19 754101 1759 1983 225 0.999 0.268 1.899 12.710 0.211 0.319 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 0.998 0.238 0.969 4.704 0.204 0.353 21 754111 1781 1983 203 0.992 0.239 0.568 3.549 0.199 0.393 22 754112 1799 1983 185 0.993 0.277 0.577 3.381 0.228 0.427 23 754121 1793 1983 191 0.997 0.368 3.108 18.388 0.241 0.398 24 754122 1777 1983 207 0.998 0.252 1.424 8.061 0.181 0.390 25 754131 1823 1983 161 0.999 0.249 1.056 5.739 0.214 0.289 26 754132 1806 1983 178 0.999 0.264 1.398 6.758 0.227 0.263 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.996 0.287 1.478 8.061 0.218 0.364 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.004 0.056 0.920 6.132 0.027 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.998 0.266 1.261 5.730 0.224 0.346 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.006 0.085 1.131 4.434 0.040 0.172 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.983 0.223 0.383 3.038 0.164 0.131 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.993 0.241 0.768 4.268 0.201 0.263 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 0.999 0.326 1.899 8.701 0.241 0.435 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 0.999 0.403 4.288 30.746 0.260 0.671 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.120 0.124 0.007 0.445 3.633 -0.159 0.648 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.159 SERIES 754041 AND 754091 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.648 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.124 0.123 0.110 0.137 0.127 0.118 0.155 0.195 0.127 0.095 SDEV 0.100 0.204 0.328 0.225 0.178 0.209 0.205 0.199 0.198 0.197 SERR 0.058 0.064 0.072 0.043 0.022 0.017 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.398 0.482 0.511 0.659 0.719 0.744 0.811 0.856 0.788 0.731 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.127 SDEV 0.179 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.789 NSS 25.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.979 0.191 0.683 3.737 0.152 0.468 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.244 0.173 0.041 119 239 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 1.49 1.01 1.17 2.66 11.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.84 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.467 0.308 0.307 0.225 0.213 0.198 0.111 0.101 0.084 0.071 PACF 0.467 0.115 0.164 0.017 0.073 0.039 -0.051 0.010 -0.007 0.013 95% C.L. 0.106 0.127 0.135 0.142 0.146 0.150 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.155 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.261 0.395 0.047 0.178 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.299 0.191 0.225 0.125 0.061 0.100 0.050 -0.002 0.019 0.075 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.299 2 0.266 0.112 3 0.248 0.070 0.157 4 0.247 0.069 0.154 0.010 5 0.247 0.073 0.155 0.015 -0.021 6 0.248 0.072 0.148 0.012 -0.033 0.051 7 0.249 0.071 0.148 0.013 -0.032 0.053 -0.010 8 0.248 0.073 0.146 0.014 -0.027 0.056 -0.001 -0.037 9 0.248 0.073 0.146 0.014 -0.027 0.055 -0.001 -0.038 0.003 10 0.248 0.076 0.146 0.010 -0.025 0.054 -0.012 -0.043 -0.015 0.072 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2612.26 2580.64 2578.13 2571.25 2573.21 2575.06 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2576.13 2578.10 2579.60 2581.60 2581.73 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.248 0.070 0.157 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.31 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.03 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.248 0.132 0.207 0.100 0.060 0.054 0.033 0.021 0.016 0.0107 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 754011 3 0.073 0.216 -0.075 0.093 2 754012 3 0.151 0.372 -0.304 0.144 3 754021 3 0.307 0.275 0.196 0.223 4 754022 3 0.193 0.347 0.104 0.083 5 754031 3 0.103 0.295 0.026 0.062 6 754032 3 0.083 0.203 0.088 0.113 7 754041 3 0.307 0.508 0.026 0.074 8 754042 3 0.090 0.288 0.004 0.049 9 754051 3 0.378 0.459 0.132 0.107 10 754052 3 0.147 0.278 0.128 0.072 11 754061 3 0.047 0.126 0.057 0.040 12 754062 3 0.130 0.302 0.087 0.036 13 754071 3 0.310 0.523 -0.067 0.158 14 754072 3 0.535 0.416 0.235 0.169 15 754081 3 0.028 0.145 0.032 0.009 16 754082 3 0.082 0.228 0.111 0.007 17 754091 3 0.230 0.372 0.053 0.144 18 754092 3 0.290 0.454 0.092 0.061 19 754101 3 0.141 0.275 0.178 -0.020 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 754102 3 0.257 0.182 0.355 0.101 21 754111 3 0.211 0.322 0.088 0.141 22 754112 3 0.233 0.315 0.154 0.138 23 754121 3 0.166 0.378 0.017 0.070 24 754122 3 0.166 0.361 0.077 0.019 25 754131 3 0.091 0.267 0.058 0.043 26 754132 3 0.073 0.251 0.039 0.027 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.185 0.314 0.073 0.083 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.118 0.104 0.118 0.058 MEDIAN 3 0.158 0.298 0.082 0.073 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.167 0.120 0.102 0.098 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.028 0.126 -0.304 -0.020 LOWER HINGE 3 0.090 0.251 0.026 0.040 UPPER HINGE 3 0.257 0.372 0.128 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.535 0.523 0.355 0.223 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.264 1.075 4.272 0.275 0.016 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.218 0.368 2.929 0.250 -0.004 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.200 0.769 4.797 0.203 0.012 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.230 1.214 6.479 0.233 -0.005 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.250 0.607 3.130 0.274 0.002 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.217 1.026 4.981 0.212 -0.002 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.322 2.381 13.370 0.292 -0.002 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.352 5.006 40.316 0.266 -0.008 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.315 1.672 9.998 0.312 -0.039 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.317 1.524 6.924 0.294 -0.009 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.231 1.849 8.862 0.219 -0.012 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.305 2.940 18.748 0.267 -0.003 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.186 0.166 3.160 0.213 -0.026 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.186 0.765 4.809 0.198 -0.019 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.308 1.926 8.001 0.285 0.000 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.234 0.932 5.105 0.246 -0.002 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.333 1.794 9.301 0.312 -0.020 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.263 1.009 6.132 0.277 -0.002 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.246 1.363 9.023 0.243 -0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.205 0.524 3.612 0.223 0.000 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.215 0.524 3.884 0.236 -0.024 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.242 0.932 3.906 0.263 0.004 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.336 3.220 21.069 0.289 -0.003 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.230 1.834 10.150 0.214 -0.002 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.238 0.867 5.156 0.247 0.000 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.254 1.520 7.986 0.250 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.258 1.454 8.696 0.254 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.050 1.043 7.878 0.033 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.244 1.145 6.306 0.250 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.090 1.066 5.029 0.054 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.186 0.166 2.929 0.198 -0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.218 0.769 4.272 0.223 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.308 1.834 9.301 0.277 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.352 5.006 40.316 0.312 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.126 0.114 0.006 0.369 4.032 -0.247 0.618 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.247 SERIES 754011 AND 754092 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.618 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.227 0.197 0.156 0.113 0.094 0.122 0.146 0.185 0.144 0.088 SDEV 0.068 0.175 0.216 0.200 0.172 0.178 0.181 0.174 0.159 0.164 SERR 0.039 0.055 0.047 0.038 0.021 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.578 0.621 0.610 0.607 0.647 0.752 0.801 0.848 0.812 0.715 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.145 SDEV 0.159 SERR 0.009 EPS 0.813 NSS 25.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.980 0.129 0.280 3.600 0.147 -0.019 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.315 0.244 -0.063 130 228 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 1.37 1.00 1.13 2.50 12.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.17 0.00 0.81 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 -0.106 0.010 -0.048 0.025 0.060 -0.025 0.011 0.025 0.055 PACF -0.019 -0.107 0.005 -0.059 0.025 0.050 -0.017 0.019 0.023 0.065 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.012 -0.021 -0.107 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.006 0.001 -0.053 0.025 0.057 -0.018 0.024 0.017 0.049 PACF 0.000 -0.006 0.001 -0.053 0.025 0.056 -0.018 0.022 0.020 0.055 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.003 0.000 -0.006 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.980 0.137 0.395 3.194 0.128 0.295 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.294 0.189 0.226 0.078 0.098 0.111 0.031 0.036 0.025 0.017 PACF 0.294 0.112 0.159 -0.042 0.048 0.046 -0.027 -0.001 -0.009 0.011 95% C.L. 0.106 0.114 0.118 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.124 0.244 0.070 0.163 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES