RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO552N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO552N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 754 1 Red Mtn.Pass, (Silverton DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 754 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 3754-10743 1626 1983 754 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 754021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1721 1725 / 1801 1805 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 754022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1777 1781 / 1936 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 754052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1858 1863 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 754061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1885 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 754071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 754072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1793 1797 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 754081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1939 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 754091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 754101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 754121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1848 1852 / 1950 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 754131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 754132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1943 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 0.259 0.030 1.523 4.907 0.045 0.828 2 754012 1875 1983 109 0.242 0.020 0.192 2.365 0.056 0.647 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.257 0.023 0.517 3.332 0.054 0.687 4 754022 1694 1983 290 0.249 0.021 0.379 2.961 0.054 0.662 5 754031 1816 1983 168 0.266 0.021 0.337 3.321 0.059 0.538 6 754032 1825 1983 159 0.279 0.017 0.335 2.924 0.052 0.407 7 754041 1792 1983 192 0.243 0.026 1.935 14.338 0.055 0.696 8 754042 1802 1983 182 0.240 0.018 0.210 3.259 0.059 0.396 9 754051 1730 1983 254 0.307 0.020 0.493 3.888 0.052 0.453 10 754052 1775 1983 209 0.285 0.025 1.992 11.059 0.052 0.629 11 754061 1793 1983 191 0.251 0.022 0.767 4.143 0.054 0.677 12 754062 1774 1983 210 0.264 0.020 -0.043 3.951 0.054 0.546 13 754071 1711 1983 273 0.299 0.024 1.102 5.207 0.053 0.616 14 754072 1626 1983 358 0.330 0.043 1.067 3.355 0.048 0.867 15 754081 1863 1983 121 0.289 0.017 0.466 3.340 0.049 0.379 16 754082 1818 1983 166 0.289 0.027 0.699 3.300 0.056 0.658 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.313 0.046 0.435 3.107 0.067 0.785 18 754092 1669 1961 293 0.323 0.036 0.411 2.472 0.060 0.743 19 754101 1759 1983 225 0.285 0.017 0.447 3.335 0.045 0.496 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 0.298 0.021 1.170 8.153 0.040 0.671 21 754111 1781 1983 203 0.291 0.029 0.808 4.823 0.058 0.587 22 754112 1799 1983 185 0.287 0.029 0.370 3.439 0.061 0.620 23 754121 1793 1983 191 0.264 0.022 0.817 4.483 0.052 0.642 24 754122 1777 1983 207 0.274 0.031 1.075 3.769 0.048 0.842 25 754131 1823 1983 161 0.271 0.016 1.037 5.261 0.045 0.482 26 754132 1806 1983 178 0.298 0.027 3.476 19.496 0.045 0.637 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1626 TO 1983 358 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 206 0.279 0.025 0.847 5.153 0.053 0.623 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.025 0.008 0.740 3.980 0.006 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.282 0.022 0.608 3.604 0.053 0.640 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.039 0.009 0.696 1.607 0.008 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.240 0.016 -0.043 2.365 0.040 0.379 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.259 0.020 0.379 3.300 0.048 0.538 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 0.298 0.029 1.075 4.907 0.056 0.687 MAXIMUM VALUE 353 0.330 0.046 3.476 19.496 0.067 0.867 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.147 0.226 0.013 -0.060 2.843 -0.460 0.689 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.460 SERIES 754011 AND 754101 85 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.689 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.128 0.471 0.202 0.268 0.228 0.256 0.240 0.219 0.194 0.197 SDEV 0.314 0.197 0.301 0.198 0.281 0.216 0.226 0.251 0.207 0.221 SERR 0.181 0.062 0.066 0.037 0.035 0.017 0.014 0.016 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.406 0.856 0.682 0.816 0.839 0.882 0.881 0.873 0.860 0.864 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.248 SDEV 0.210 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.894 NSS 25.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.302 0.044 1.623 4.608 0.040 0.905 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.446 -0.167 0.082 85 273 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.42 1.00 1.08 1.51 49.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.18 0.00 0.77 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 86. 85. 168. 254. 358. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.903 0.870 0.859 0.863 0.868 0.841 0.814 0.806 0.798 0.802 PACF 0.903 0.297 0.231 0.236 0.197 -0.030 -0.069 0.017 -0.009 0.085 95% C.L. 0.106 0.171 0.215 0.251 0.282 0.310 0.335 0.356 0.376 0.395 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.888 0.360 0.091 0.086 0.167 0.275 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 1 0.12709616 0.08390997 0.00000000 0.24222545 2 754012 1 0.05734184 0.01542968 0.00000000 0.21493964 3 754021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009749 0.26994896 4 754022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000524 0.25001323 5 754031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006537 0.26066652 6 754032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008323 0.27220923 7 754041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007397 0.25026342 8 754042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012453 0.22893509 9 754051 1 0.03744420 0.01160122 0.00000000 0.29488027 10 754052 1 0.09314404 0.04054186 0.00000000 0.27337819 11 754061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021927 0.23005673 12 754062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011346 0.25174436 13 754071 1 0.10546980 0.08413298 0.00000000 0.29459685 14 754072 1 0.13958851 0.01085207 0.00000000 0.29406589 15 754081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006553 0.29289770 16 754082 1 0.07447989 0.01270740 0.00000000 0.25832838 17 754091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017029 0.28690445 18 754092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019724 0.29448760 19 754101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009278 0.27424499 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000276 0.29789376 21 754111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024629 0.31620544 22 754112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021514 0.30714276 23 754121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002041 0.26150012 24 754122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014501 0.28860748 25 754131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001977 0.26922646 26 754132 1 0.20385702 0.18938862 0.00000000 0.29261488 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.047 0.067 3.078 0.044 0.272 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.065 1.302 6.126 0.055 0.380 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.083 0.504 3.027 0.054 0.636 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.084 0.396 2.992 0.053 0.662 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.079 0.433 3.237 0.059 0.531 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.058 0.329 2.806 0.052 0.375 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.103 1.703 12.975 0.055 0.685 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.069 0.367 3.954 0.059 0.310 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.057 0.110 3.397 0.052 0.283 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.056 0.458 3.946 0.052 0.260 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.071 1.107 5.070 0.053 0.507 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.070 0.396 4.575 0.054 0.477 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.064 0.564 3.533 0.052 0.432 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.070 0.570 3.475 0.048 0.580 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.059 0.354 3.412 0.048 0.368 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.068 0.973 4.722 0.056 0.368 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.143 0.913 4.782 0.067 0.764 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.101 0.274 2.668 0.059 0.687 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.057 0.632 4.291 0.045 0.425 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.070 1.193 8.242 0.040 0.668 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.086 1.025 4.960 0.058 0.477 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.091 0.685 3.375 0.060 0.552 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.082 0.918 4.767 0.052 0.623 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.108 1.090 4.100 0.048 0.825 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.057 1.063 5.574 0.044 0.470 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.051 0.565 4.103 0.043 0.353 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.075 0.692 4.507 0.052 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.021 0.402 2.110 0.006 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.070 0.567 4.027 0.053 0.477 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.026 0.629 1.407 0.008 0.268 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.047 0.067 2.668 0.040 0.260 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.058 0.396 3.375 0.048 0.368 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.084 1.025 4.782 0.056 0.636 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.143 1.703 12.975 0.067 0.825 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 754012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 754021 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 754022 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 754031 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 754032 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 754041 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 754042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 754051 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 754052 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 754061 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 754062 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 754071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 754072 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 754081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 754082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 754091 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 754092 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 754101 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 754111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 754112 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 754121 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 754122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 754131 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 754132 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.045 0.127 2.992 0.044 0.208 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.054 0.904 4.425 0.055 0.156 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.075 0.659 3.681 0.054 0.551 4 754022 1694 1983 290 0.999 0.067 0.221 3.564 0.053 0.463 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.069 0.572 3.762 0.059 0.403 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.055 0.371 2.961 0.052 0.310 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.096 2.056 15.550 0.055 0.638 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.067 0.301 3.882 0.059 0.271 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.056 0.114 3.270 0.052 0.257 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.055 0.494 4.046 0.052 0.247 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.064 0.761 4.260 0.053 0.396 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.063 0.679 5.126 0.054 0.347 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.057 0.414 3.216 0.052 0.292 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.063 0.575 3.584 0.048 0.483 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.054 0.295 3.267 0.048 0.269 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.067 1.032 5.192 0.056 0.335 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.998 0.085 1.224 8.473 0.067 0.403 18 754092 1669 1961 293 0.999 0.074 0.607 3.136 0.060 0.436 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.048 0.773 6.370 0.045 0.196 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.056 0.743 6.341 0.040 0.510 21 754111 1781 1983 203 0.999 0.072 1.364 7.017 0.058 0.266 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.067 1.001 4.685 0.061 0.192 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.077 0.950 4.937 0.052 0.577 24 754122 1777 1983 207 0.999 0.084 0.454 3.203 0.048 0.712 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.048 0.498 3.924 0.045 0.287 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.045 0.293 4.593 0.043 0.174 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.064 0.672 4.825 0.052 0.361 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.013 0.430 2.579 0.006 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.063 0.591 3.985 0.053 0.323 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.017 0.533 1.856 0.008 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.998 0.045 0.114 2.961 0.040 0.156 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.055 0.371 3.270 0.048 0.257 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.072 0.904 5.126 0.056 0.463 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.096 2.056 15.550 0.067 0.712 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.215 0.120 0.007 0.090 3.308 -0.129 0.575 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 754031 AND 754122 168 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.575 SERIES 754111 AND 754112 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.093 0.430 0.224 0.317 0.247 0.244 0.259 0.244 0.210 0.207 SDEV 0.139 0.155 0.252 0.179 0.259 0.176 0.207 0.200 0.178 0.177 SERR 0.080 0.049 0.055 0.034 0.032 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.324 0.834 0.710 0.849 0.853 0.875 0.891 0.888 0.872 0.872 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.257 SDEV 0.177 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.899 NSS 25.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.994 0.043 0.315 3.018 0.038 0.362 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.205 0.121 -0.073 106 252 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.56 1.00 1.08 1.65 10.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.83 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.361 0.241 0.149 0.210 0.153 0.140 0.104 0.028 -0.001 0.025 PACF 0.361 0.127 0.032 0.145 0.029 0.038 0.015 -0.069 -0.038 0.017 95% C.L. 0.106 0.119 0.124 0.126 0.130 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.147 0.315 0.130 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.260 0.221 0.098 0.168 0.005 0.002 0.024 -0.040 -0.069 -0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.260 2 0.217 0.165 3 0.215 0.163 0.008 4 0.214 0.144 -0.018 0.120 5 0.224 0.142 -0.006 0.137 -0.080 6 0.221 0.147 -0.007 0.142 -0.072 -0.036 7 0.223 0.150 -0.012 0.142 -0.078 -0.045 0.040 8 0.225 0.147 -0.018 0.152 -0.079 -0.034 0.055 -0.070 9 0.222 0.150 -0.019 0.148 -0.072 -0.035 0.062 -0.059 -0.048 10 0.224 0.152 -0.021 0.149 -0.069 -0.040 0.063 -0.064 -0.055 0.033 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1723.59 1700.63 1692.73 1694.71 1691.56 1691.25 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1692.79 1694.24 1694.50 1695.68 1697.29 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.217 0.165 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.28 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.23 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.217 0.212 0.082 0.053 0.025 0.014 0.007 0.004 0.002 0.0011 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 754011 2 0.066 0.199 0.059 2 754012 2 0.078 0.123 0.230 3 754021 2 0.387 0.399 0.291 4 754022 2 0.277 0.352 0.247 5 754031 2 0.179 0.372 0.098 6 754032 2 0.112 0.296 0.047 7 754041 2 0.430 0.526 0.179 8 754042 2 0.100 0.235 0.140 9 754051 2 0.091 0.217 0.160 10 754052 2 0.076 0.284 -0.083 11 754061 2 0.194 0.314 0.207 12 754062 2 0.215 0.269 0.258 13 754071 2 0.141 0.239 0.184 14 754072 2 0.282 0.373 0.228 15 754081 2 0.081 0.254 0.071 16 754082 2 0.155 0.273 0.186 17 754091 2 0.185 0.349 0.141 18 754092 2 0.227 0.351 0.196 19 754101 2 0.060 0.173 0.124 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 754102 2 0.309 0.397 0.227 21 754111 2 0.124 0.247 0.129 22 754112 2 0.048 0.176 0.093 23 754121 2 0.357 0.470 0.185 24 754122 2 0.537 0.553 0.227 25 754131 2 0.130 0.256 0.124 26 754132 2 0.033 0.170 0.023 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.187 0.303 0.153 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.131 0.109 0.085 MEDIAN 2 0.148 0.279 0.170 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.197 0.137 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.033 0.123 -0.083 LOWER HINGE 2 0.081 0.235 0.098 UPPER HINGE 2 0.277 0.372 0.227 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.537 0.553 0.291 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.044 0.169 2.803 0.049 -0.007 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.052 0.842 4.323 0.059 0.001 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.059 0.591 3.463 0.068 -0.053 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.057 -0.164 3.626 0.065 -0.034 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.063 0.516 3.206 0.069 0.006 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.052 0.274 2.504 0.060 0.007 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.073 1.816 16.583 0.071 0.000 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.064 0.473 4.814 0.066 -0.014 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.053 0.140 3.748 0.059 -0.005 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.053 0.519 3.797 0.058 -0.009 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.057 0.437 3.578 0.063 -0.007 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.056 0.690 5.064 0.063 -0.060 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.053 0.448 3.513 0.060 -0.030 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.053 0.403 3.354 0.058 -0.025 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.052 0.504 3.807 0.054 0.000 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.062 1.253 6.348 0.065 -0.021 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.077 1.669 12.664 0.079 -0.006 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.065 0.491 3.287 0.072 -0.013 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.047 0.974 7.562 0.050 0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.047 1.203 7.954 0.049 -0.022 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.069 1.373 7.386 0.068 -0.032 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.065 0.955 4.690 0.067 0.005 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.062 0.816 4.392 0.067 -0.007 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.057 -0.074 3.367 0.064 -0.007 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.045 0.335 3.499 0.052 -0.026 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.044 0.444 5.122 0.048 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.057 0.658 5.171 0.062 -0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.009 0.493 3.185 0.008 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.056 0.510 3.802 0.063 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.011 0.552 1.659 0.008 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.044 -0.164 2.504 0.048 -0.060 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.052 0.403 3.463 0.058 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.063 0.955 5.122 0.067 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.077 1.816 16.583 0.079 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.243 0.110 0.006 0.213 3.521 -0.071 0.640 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.071 SERIES 754011 AND 754092 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.640 SERIES 754111 AND 754112 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.138 0.373 0.243 0.277 0.314 0.268 0.329 0.299 0.207 0.222 SDEV 0.122 0.118 0.170 0.120 0.176 0.168 0.172 0.152 0.160 0.154 SERR 0.071 0.037 0.037 0.023 0.022 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.427 0.799 0.731 0.822 0.890 0.888 0.920 0.913 0.870 0.881 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.285 SDEV 0.144 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.911 NSS 25.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.997 0.039 0.196 3.067 0.044 -0.028 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.210 0.112 -0.072 107 251 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.61 1.00 1.06 1.67 7.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.83 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.028 -0.108 -0.056 0.079 0.025 0.053 0.041 -0.043 -0.065 0.042 PACF -0.028 -0.109 -0.063 0.064 0.018 0.067 0.059 -0.030 -0.056 0.026 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.017 -0.031 -0.109 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 0.005 -0.059 0.073 0.028 0.059 0.037 -0.034 -0.061 0.031 PACF -0.007 0.005 -0.059 0.073 0.029 0.056 0.046 -0.036 -0.060 0.026 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 -0.007 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.997 0.040 0.295 3.050 0.040 0.247 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.247 0.227 0.059 0.130 0.073 0.085 0.045 -0.016 -0.051 0.001 PACF 0.247 0.177 -0.034 0.093 0.027 0.028 0.006 -0.061 -0.056 0.030 95% C.L. 0.106 0.112 0.117 0.117 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.092 0.203 0.179 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES