RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO552T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO552T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 754 1 Red Mtn.Pass, (Silverton DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 754 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 3754-10743 1626 1983 754 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 5.725 0.470 -0.524 3.985 0.084 0.221 2 754012 1875 1983 109 5.501 0.494 0.116 2.942 0.076 0.437 3 754021 1702 1983 282 5.345 0.504 -0.246 2.801 0.077 0.480 4 754022 1694 1983 290 5.177 0.517 -0.074 2.558 0.084 0.435 5 754031 1816 1983 168 6.267 0.418 -0.261 3.274 0.065 0.224 6 754032 1825 1983 159 6.404 0.508 -0.653 3.154 0.058 0.609 7 754041 1792 1983 192 5.525 0.597 0.126 2.525 0.082 0.564 8 754042 1802 1983 182 5.305 0.628 -0.159 2.843 0.100 0.468 9 754051 1730 1983 254 5.293 0.676 0.087 2.323 0.105 0.484 10 754052 1775 1983 209 5.094 0.586 0.001 2.395 0.110 0.305 11 754061 1793 1983 191 5.401 0.566 0.070 2.733 0.092 0.423 12 754062 1774 1983 210 5.498 0.643 -0.242 2.796 0.084 0.574 13 754071 1711 1983 273 6.016 0.516 -0.018 2.999 0.062 0.588 14 754072 1626 1983 358 6.200 0.491 -0.212 2.675 0.059 0.556 15 754081 1863 1983 121 5.860 0.454 -0.244 3.384 0.068 0.326 16 754082 1818 1983 166 5.644 0.476 -0.253 2.542 0.084 0.281 17 754091 1668 1979 312 5.719 0.723 -0.039 2.631 0.094 0.531 18 754092 1669 1961 293 5.975 0.586 0.153 2.689 0.080 0.459 19 754101 1759 1983 225 6.247 0.537 -0.424 3.175 0.075 0.388 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 6.257 0.714 -0.605 3.152 0.084 0.575 21 754111 1781 1983 203 5.742 0.429 -0.113 2.684 0.057 0.535 22 754112 1799 1983 185 5.750 0.488 0.010 2.679 0.066 0.506 23 754121 1793 1983 191 5.848 0.590 -0.255 3.125 0.088 0.422 24 754122 1777 1983 207 5.826 0.552 -0.521 2.972 0.080 0.436 25 754131 1823 1983 161 6.211 0.393 -0.574 3.142 0.070 0.091 26 754132 1806 1983 178 6.380 0.460 -0.732 3.556 0.070 0.256 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1626 TO 1983 358 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 5.777 0.539 -0.215 2.913 0.079 0.430 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.389 0.088 0.262 0.379 0.014 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 5.746 0.516 -0.227 2.822 0.080 0.448 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.702 0.114 0.426 0.477 0.016 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 85 5.094 0.393 -0.732 2.323 0.057 0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 5.498 0.476 -0.424 2.675 0.068 0.326 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 6.200 0.590 0.001 3.152 0.084 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 6.404 0.723 0.153 3.985 0.110 0.609 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.338 0.193 0.011 -0.279 2.698 -0.236 0.844 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.236 SERIES 754062 AND 754072 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.844 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.219 0.505 0.448 0.520 0.426 0.493 0.491 0.474 0.400 0.284 SDEV 0.334 0.120 0.185 0.143 0.261 0.185 0.170 0.222 0.194 0.223 SERR 0.193 0.038 0.040 0.027 0.032 0.015 0.011 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.567 0.872 0.873 0.929 0.929 0.955 0.958 0.957 0.945 0.911 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.429 SDEV 0.198 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.951 NSS 25.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 5.921 0.438 0.217 3.563 0.062 0.448 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.376 -0.243 1.990 31 327 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.23 1.00 1.06 1.28 72.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.09 0.00 0.83 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 86. 85. 168. 254. 358. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.447 0.436 0.402 0.461 0.386 0.383 0.343 0.438 0.331 0.355 PACF 0.447 0.296 0.182 0.242 0.080 0.080 0.027 0.176 -0.015 0.045 95% C.L. 0.106 0.125 0.141 0.153 0.168 0.178 0.187 0.194 0.204 0.210 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.362 0.177 0.148 0.099 0.215 0.073 0.100 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 1 0.66901308 0.04822460 0.00000000 5.56851244 2 754012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018237 5.49070358 3 754021 1 0.53312439 0.00701707 0.00000000 5.11387444 4 754022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052793 5.09991026 5 754031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00327499 5.98993015 6 754032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00699794 5.84400129 7 754041 1 1.90852678 0.00447780 0.00000000 4.24727964 8 754042 1 0.44993067 0.01641072 0.00000000 5.16330767 9 754051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00570730 4.56503582 10 754052 1 1.16411173 0.04078056 0.00000000 4.96057081 11 754061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00384855 5.03106308 12 754062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00338024 5.14138508 13 754071 1 3.01913214 0.00138595 0.00000000 3.50409818 14 754072 1 1.64120352 0.00129200 0.00000000 4.88774204 15 754081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00596234 5.49638033 16 754082 1 0.49942657 0.01509767 0.00000000 5.46222353 17 754091 1 1.90401185 0.00561629 0.00000000 4.82304144 18 754092 1 2.48830485 0.00172022 0.00000000 4.02277803 19 754101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112758 6.11960554 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00607156 5.51634741 21 754111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158522 5.90400791 22 754112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00259069 5.50863361 23 754121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00303463 5.55705214 24 754122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00314959 5.49862623 25 754131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00153980 6.08602190 26 754132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00391615 6.02950478 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.078 -0.297 4.079 0.083 0.100 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.090 0.117 2.950 0.075 0.434 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.091 -0.212 2.650 0.077 0.449 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.099 -0.109 2.579 0.083 0.427 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.062 -0.504 3.730 0.065 0.103 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.062 -0.270 3.111 0.058 0.370 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.091 -0.202 2.820 0.081 0.395 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.117 -0.138 2.893 0.099 0.450 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.101 0.122 2.551 0.105 0.203 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.106 0.122 2.640 0.109 0.179 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.097 0.029 2.888 0.092 0.325 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.112 0.042 2.535 0.084 0.529 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.073 -0.106 2.679 0.061 0.427 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.074 -0.131 2.780 0.059 0.492 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.069 0.062 3.219 0.068 0.135 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.082 -0.104 2.708 0.083 0.234 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.101 -0.205 3.047 0.094 0.268 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.085 -0.268 3.152 0.080 0.279 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.085 -0.519 3.163 0.075 0.370 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.092 -0.489 3.343 0.083 0.345 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.073 0.127 2.775 0.057 0.511 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.081 -0.258 2.796 0.066 0.459 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.097 -0.289 3.248 0.088 0.371 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.090 -0.336 2.722 0.080 0.380 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.062 -0.587 3.172 0.070 0.058 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.065 -0.490 3.549 0.070 0.083 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.086 -0.188 2.992 0.079 0.322 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.016 0.218 0.381 0.014 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.087 -0.203 2.890 0.080 0.370 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.024 0.326 0.465 0.016 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.062 -0.587 2.535 0.057 0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.073 -0.297 2.708 0.068 0.203 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.097 0.029 3.172 0.084 0.434 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.117 0.127 4.079 0.109 0.529 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 754012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 754021 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 754022 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 754031 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 754032 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 754041 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 754042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 754051 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 754052 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 754061 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 754062 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 754071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 754072 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 754081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 754082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 754091 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 754092 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 754101 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 754111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 754112 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 754121 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 754122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 754131 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 754132 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.069 -0.488 3.937 0.083 -0.099 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.075 0.277 3.434 0.075 0.205 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.083 -0.242 2.771 0.077 0.335 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.096 -0.122 2.555 0.083 0.389 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.061 -0.527 3.669 0.065 0.080 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.052 -0.515 3.851 0.058 0.105 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.088 -0.251 2.880 0.081 0.359 8 754042 1802 1983 182 0.999 0.103 -0.002 3.194 0.099 0.298 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.096 0.186 2.548 0.105 0.114 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.098 0.089 2.560 0.109 0.041 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.089 -0.297 2.820 0.092 0.216 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.079 -0.098 2.774 0.084 0.091 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.069 -0.063 2.829 0.061 0.358 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.066 -0.192 2.794 0.059 0.352 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.066 0.068 3.225 0.068 0.025 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.079 -0.194 2.833 0.083 0.179 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.097 -0.264 2.905 0.094 0.215 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.082 -0.249 3.350 0.080 0.235 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.078 -0.598 3.478 0.075 0.238 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.081 -0.670 3.829 0.083 0.171 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.064 0.054 2.924 0.057 0.340 22 754112 1799 1983 185 0.999 0.067 -0.310 2.876 0.066 0.196 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.087 -0.355 3.274 0.088 0.208 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.081 -0.382 2.780 0.080 0.241 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.059 -0.651 3.161 0.069 -0.036 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.064 -0.459 3.625 0.070 0.048 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.078 -0.241 3.111 0.079 0.189 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.014 0.257 0.422 0.014 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.079 -0.250 2.914 0.080 0.207 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.022 0.396 0.640 0.016 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.999 0.052 -0.670 2.548 0.057 -0.099 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.066 -0.459 2.794 0.068 0.091 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.088 -0.063 3.434 0.084 0.298 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.103 0.277 3.937 0.109 0.389 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.417 0.128 0.007 0.006 2.894 0.013 0.807 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.013 SERIES 754012 AND 754042 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.807 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.291 0.519 0.489 0.560 0.497 0.514 0.513 0.515 0.393 0.297 SDEV 0.334 0.114 0.148 0.097 0.179 0.168 0.157 0.171 0.195 0.195 SERR 0.193 0.036 0.032 0.018 0.022 0.014 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.657 0.878 0.890 0.939 0.946 0.958 0.961 0.963 0.943 0.916 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.411 SDEV 0.186 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.947 NSS 25.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 1.001 0.056 -0.608 3.440 0.063 0.021 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.025 -0.012 0.065 66 292 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.46 1.00 1.05 1.51 14.25 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.021 0.066 0.012 0.124 0.007 0.005 -0.083 0.123 -0.048 -0.032 PACF 0.021 0.066 0.009 0.120 0.001 -0.011 -0.087 0.115 -0.046 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.110 0.110 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.036 0.096 -0.048 0.166 -0.018 0.031 -0.101 0.209 -0.025 0.040 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.036 2 -0.032 0.095 3 -0.028 0.093 -0.042 4 -0.022 0.079 -0.037 0.156 5 -0.022 0.079 -0.037 0.156 -0.001 6 -0.022 0.079 -0.037 0.156 -0.001 0.001 7 -0.021 0.078 -0.023 0.153 0.006 -0.001 -0.088 8 -0.005 0.079 -0.024 0.125 0.010 -0.016 -0.084 0.183 9 -0.005 0.079 -0.024 0.125 0.010 -0.016 -0.084 0.183 -0.001 10 -0.005 0.079 -0.025 0.125 0.010 -0.016 -0.084 0.183 -0.001 -0.001 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2076.04 2077.59 2076.37 2077.75 2070.91 2072.90 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2074.90 2074.13 2063.88 2065.88 2067.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.022 0.079 -0.037 0.156 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.60 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.74 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.022 0.079 -0.041 0.164 -0.013 0.027 -0.014 0.029 -0.005 0.0071 -0.004 0.005 -0.001 0.002 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 754011 4 0.063 -0.085 0.204 0.011 -0.140 2 754012 4 0.112 0.147 0.245 0.046 0.013 3 754021 4 0.181 0.230 0.183 0.042 0.137 4 754022 4 0.265 0.220 0.237 0.069 0.158 5 754031 4 0.028 0.078 0.048 -0.076 -0.036 6 754032 4 0.043 0.108 0.062 -0.102 0.028 7 754041 4 0.170 0.274 0.138 0.053 0.097 8 754042 4 0.206 0.147 0.225 0.109 0.161 9 754051 4 0.084 0.054 0.188 0.094 0.116 10 754052 4 0.022 0.029 0.126 0.055 -0.002 11 754061 4 0.154 0.167 0.251 -0.056 0.160 12 754062 4 0.066 0.084 0.052 -0.008 0.218 13 754071 4 0.162 0.283 0.098 0.090 0.079 14 754072 4 0.196 0.235 0.144 0.102 0.134 15 754081 4 0.131 0.096 0.222 -0.182 0.184 16 754082 4 0.122 0.171 0.115 -0.085 0.265 17 754091 4 0.079 0.193 0.072 -0.019 0.158 18 754092 4 0.104 0.179 0.091 0.065 0.158 19 754101 4 0.125 0.167 0.095 0.078 0.196 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 754102 4 0.080 0.123 0.101 0.069 0.157 21 754111 4 0.197 0.236 0.283 0.061 -0.036 22 754112 4 0.070 0.172 0.131 0.072 -0.101 23 754121 4 0.090 0.160 0.091 0.049 0.164 24 754122 4 0.133 0.142 0.164 0.175 0.055 25 754131 4 0.053 -0.012 0.004 -0.159 0.132 26 754132 4 0.056 0.074 0.076 -0.120 0.184 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.115 0.141 0.140 0.017 0.102 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 0.087 0.074 0.090 0.101 MEDIAN 4 0.108 0.154 0.128 0.051 0.136 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.096 0.109 0.113 0.128 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.022 -0.085 0.004 -0.182 -0.140 LOWER HINGE 4 0.066 0.084 0.091 -0.056 0.028 UPPER HINGE 4 0.162 0.193 0.204 0.072 0.161 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.265 0.283 0.283 0.175 0.265 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.067 -0.560 4.146 0.075 0.005 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.071 0.093 2.919 0.079 0.013 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.075 -0.262 2.845 0.084 0.002 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.082 -0.161 2.759 0.091 -0.018 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.060 -0.542 3.742 0.068 -0.004 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.051 -0.545 3.784 0.060 0.004 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.081 -0.269 2.767 0.092 -0.002 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.092 0.308 3.615 0.106 0.000 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.092 0.142 2.455 0.106 0.000 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.097 0.053 2.471 0.110 -0.001 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.082 -0.329 2.759 0.094 0.003 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.077 -0.162 2.618 0.085 0.015 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.063 -0.135 3.135 0.070 0.000 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.059 -0.034 3.256 0.066 -0.010 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.061 0.132 3.685 0.067 0.005 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.074 -0.052 2.928 0.085 0.006 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.094 -0.241 3.087 0.102 -0.006 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.078 -0.316 3.393 0.086 -0.006 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.073 -0.500 3.290 0.081 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.078 -0.464 3.314 0.088 -0.008 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.057 0.159 2.848 0.062 0.003 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.065 -0.356 3.164 0.072 -0.004 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.083 -0.331 3.114 0.094 -0.004 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.075 -0.523 3.478 0.085 0.000 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.058 -0.481 3.054 0.066 0.013 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.063 -0.494 3.406 0.070 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.073 -0.226 3.155 0.082 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.012 0.259 0.425 0.014 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.074 -0.265 3.125 0.085 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.020 0.447 0.560 0.022 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.051 -0.560 2.455 0.060 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.063 -0.481 2.845 0.070 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.082 -0.034 3.406 0.092 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.097 0.308 4.146 0.110 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.456 0.120 0.007 -0.273 3.524 0.110 0.850 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.110 SERIES 754081 AND 754092 99 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.850 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.402 0.551 0.535 0.544 0.605 0.592 0.555 0.534 0.404 0.309 SDEV 0.240 0.106 0.112 0.084 0.113 0.135 0.125 0.140 0.167 0.158 SERR 0.139 0.033 0.024 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.758 0.891 0.907 0.935 0.964 0.969 0.967 0.966 0.946 0.921 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.429 SDEV 0.180 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.951 NSS 25.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.055 -0.506 3.280 0.065 -0.102 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.036 -0.015 0.062 71 287 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.45 1.00 1.05 1.51 3.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.102 -0.067 -0.026 -0.022 -0.007 -0.009 -0.087 0.110 -0.036 -0.048 PACF -0.102 -0.079 -0.042 -0.035 -0.019 -0.018 -0.096 0.088 -0.031 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.109 0.110 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.018 -0.110 -0.079 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.001 -0.006 -0.005 -0.025 -0.021 -0.088 0.090 -0.045 -0.056 PACF -0.001 -0.001 -0.006 -0.005 -0.025 -0.021 -0.089 0.090 -0.047 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.006 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.056 -0.585 3.589 0.064 -0.051 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.051 0.096 -0.076 0.180 -0.067 0.019 -0.127 0.125 -0.089 -0.020 PACF -0.051 0.094 -0.067 0.167 -0.043 -0.019 -0.100 0.088 -0.053 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.113 0.114 0.115 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.016 -0.047 0.094 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES