RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO552W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO552W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 754 1 Red Mtn.Pass, (Silverton WIDTH_RING PCEN - 754 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 3754-10743 1626 1983 754 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.998 0.563 0.141 3.009 0.141 0.760 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.800 0.703 -0.151 1.822 0.128 0.909 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.973 0.461 0.522 2.596 0.161 0.912 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.174 0.466 -0.124 2.033 0.126 0.916 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.461 0.344 0.623 4.254 0.177 0.520 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.517 0.335 0.296 2.537 0.182 0.486 7 754041 1792 1983 192 0.992 0.628 0.995 3.227 0.149 0.898 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.006 0.535 0.889 3.313 0.131 0.893 9 754051 1730 1983 254 0.814 0.342 -0.415 2.476 0.166 0.897 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.053 0.272 0.013 2.460 0.136 0.761 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.104 0.334 0.241 2.751 0.140 0.827 12 754062 1774 1983 210 0.959 0.467 0.423 2.064 0.143 0.924 13 754071 1711 1983 273 0.725 0.308 0.291 2.318 0.156 0.903 14 754072 1626 1983 358 0.568 0.314 0.634 2.600 0.154 0.948 15 754081 1863 1983 121 0.746 0.201 0.963 4.733 0.184 0.630 16 754082 1818 1983 166 0.769 0.200 0.121 2.717 0.187 0.647 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.673 0.447 0.466 2.218 0.211 0.929 18 754092 1669 1961 293 0.651 0.445 0.325 1.733 0.197 0.943 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.048 0.408 0.382 2.123 0.145 0.897 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.151 0.272 0.424 2.729 0.138 0.718 21 754111 1781 1983 203 0.822 0.375 1.081 3.938 0.194 0.844 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.087 0.600 0.777 2.605 0.201 0.894 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.337 0.430 0.328 2.398 0.143 0.823 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.163 0.311 0.439 2.905 0.143 0.783 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.414 0.280 -0.032 2.632 0.134 0.631 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.199 0.200 0.775 4.196 0.129 0.509 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1626 TO 1983 358 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.085 0.394 0.401 2.784 0.158 0.800 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.348 0.134 0.378 0.760 0.026 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.051 0.360 0.402 2.603 0.147 0.869 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.385 0.158 0.494 0.691 0.044 0.191 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.568 0.200 -0.415 1.733 0.126 0.486 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.814 0.308 0.141 2.318 0.138 0.718 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.199 0.466 0.634 3.009 0.182 0.909 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.998 0.703 1.081 4.733 0.211 0.948 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.217 0.354 0.020 -0.082 2.426 -0.691 0.912 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.691 SERIES 754051 AND 754092 232 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.912 SERIES 754041 AND 754042 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.534 0.136 0.115 0.200 0.258 0.299 0.357 0.530 0.231 0.208 SDEV 0.039 0.436 0.356 0.340 0.420 0.270 0.282 0.282 0.314 0.283 SERR 0.023 0.138 0.078 0.064 0.052 0.022 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.842 0.511 0.525 0.751 0.860 0.903 0.929 0.965 0.885 0.872 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.166 SDEV 0.303 SERR 0.018 EPS 0.836 NSS 25.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.925 0.299 -0.941 3.309 0.126 0.892 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.695 0.505 -0.057 59 299 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.55 1.00 1.08 1.63 8.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.82 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 86. 85. 168. 254. 358. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.889 0.843 0.815 0.794 0.788 0.782 0.765 0.737 0.720 0.718 PACF 0.889 0.249 0.156 0.104 0.143 0.097 0.021 -0.044 0.014 0.084 95% C.L. 0.106 0.170 0.212 0.244 0.271 0.296 0.318 0.338 0.356 0.372 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.824 0.571 0.117 0.064 0.008 0.085 0.111 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00981395 1.57623529 2 754012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01506821 0.97143221 3 754021 1 1.41258502 0.01652043 0.00000000 0.67543536 4 754022 1 1.29951036 0.00608484 0.00000000 0.56594753 5 754031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026899 1.48397994 6 754032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00332431 1.25141394 7 754041 1 2.25976062 0.01483271 0.00000000 0.25022519 8 754042 1 2.02441764 0.00975334 0.00000000 0.06343077 9 754051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00311160 0.41736546 10 754052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00199330 0.84376609 11 754061 1 0.92300326 0.01060986 0.00000000 0.71050119 12 754062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00446546 1.43053448 13 754071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00284797 1.11500728 14 754072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011075 0.54847193 15 754081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00217410 0.61333060 16 754082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00098373 0.68683463 17 754091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331879 1.19259548 18 754092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00435061 1.29097247 19 754101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00406336 1.50711513 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00129444 1.30886817 21 754111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00281494 0.53499436 22 754112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00764425 0.37600353 23 754121 1 0.87000561 0.02858525 0.00000000 1.18029904 24 754122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00179743 1.34958959 25 754131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00139441 1.52686024 26 754132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019798 1.21642733 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 0.997 0.260 0.670 3.455 0.138 0.709 2 754012 1875 1983 109 0.987 0.276 0.121 1.997 0.128 0.816 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.999 0.366 0.521 2.914 0.161 0.858 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.001 0.347 0.169 2.723 0.126 0.889 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.235 0.612 4.199 0.176 0.517 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.200 0.490 3.148 0.180 0.358 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.009 0.301 0.873 3.789 0.148 0.765 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.007 0.260 0.686 4.075 0.130 0.754 9 754051 1730 1983 254 0.985 0.364 0.406 3.363 0.165 0.843 10 754052 1775 1983 209 0.999 0.237 0.190 2.281 0.135 0.702 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.237 0.100 2.797 0.139 0.711 12 754062 1774 1983 210 0.996 0.373 0.145 2.381 0.142 0.861 13 754071 1711 1983 273 0.988 0.265 0.373 2.710 0.155 0.751 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.556 0.648 2.589 0.154 0.946 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.249 0.835 4.153 0.182 0.573 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.256 0.257 3.182 0.186 0.626 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.963 0.439 0.282 2.487 0.210 0.860 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.144 0.929 3.997 21.972 0.197 0.846 19 754101 1759 1983 225 0.993 0.266 0.043 2.545 0.144 0.790 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.220 0.366 2.986 0.137 0.685 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.003 0.387 0.523 3.140 0.193 0.770 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.033 0.441 0.401 3.035 0.200 0.814 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.298 0.847 4.364 0.142 0.784 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.247 0.265 2.766 0.142 0.739 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.193 0.078 2.718 0.133 0.622 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.167 0.746 4.144 0.129 0.505 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.004 0.322 0.563 3.843 0.157 0.734 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.031 0.153 0.746 3.755 0.026 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.265 0.403 3.010 0.146 0.760 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.003 0.129 0.479 1.079 0.043 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.963 0.167 0.043 1.997 0.126 0.358 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.997 0.237 0.190 2.710 0.137 0.685 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.366 0.670 3.789 0.180 0.843 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.144 0.929 3.997 21.972 0.210 0.946 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 754012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 754021 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 754022 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 754031 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 754032 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 754041 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 754042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 754051 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 754052 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 754061 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 754062 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 754071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 754072 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 754081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 754082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 754091 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 754092 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 754101 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 754111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 754112 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 754121 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 754122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 754131 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 754132 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 0.997 0.142 0.330 3.746 0.138 0.255 2 754012 1875 1983 109 0.995 0.151 -0.166 3.155 0.127 0.414 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.988 0.249 -0.009 2.536 0.160 0.690 4 754022 1694 1983 290 0.985 0.255 -0.026 2.664 0.126 0.802 5 754031 1816 1983 168 0.998 0.198 0.520 4.731 0.176 0.346 6 754032 1825 1983 159 0.999 0.192 0.577 3.261 0.180 0.292 7 754041 1792 1983 192 0.992 0.190 0.884 5.129 0.148 0.479 8 754042 1802 1983 182 0.995 0.200 0.740 4.655 0.129 0.585 9 754051 1730 1983 254 0.996 0.306 1.276 9.561 0.165 0.664 10 754052 1775 1983 209 0.998 0.212 0.169 2.299 0.135 0.637 11 754061 1793 1983 191 0.994 0.177 0.143 2.793 0.139 0.503 12 754062 1774 1983 210 0.973 0.225 0.082 2.975 0.142 0.686 13 754071 1711 1983 273 0.996 0.206 0.194 3.070 0.155 0.575 14 754072 1626 1983 358 0.993 0.403 1.469 7.640 0.154 0.883 15 754081 1863 1983 121 0.995 0.205 0.778 4.277 0.182 0.406 16 754082 1818 1983 166 0.996 0.226 0.020 2.829 0.186 0.531 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.975 0.314 0.006 2.940 0.210 0.692 18 754092 1669 1961 293 0.970 0.335 0.660 4.332 0.196 0.725 19 754101 1759 1983 225 0.994 0.221 0.596 3.704 0.144 0.656 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 0.998 0.198 0.543 3.627 0.137 0.592 21 754111 1781 1983 203 0.981 0.294 0.548 4.012 0.193 0.614 22 754112 1799 1983 185 0.978 0.287 0.100 3.060 0.200 0.639 23 754121 1793 1983 191 0.992 0.225 0.578 3.260 0.142 0.664 24 754122 1777 1983 207 0.995 0.213 0.209 2.865 0.142 0.654 25 754131 1823 1983 161 0.999 0.158 -0.089 2.854 0.132 0.462 26 754132 1806 1983 178 0.999 0.152 0.690 4.005 0.128 0.417 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.991 0.228 0.416 3.845 0.156 0.572 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.009 0.063 0.415 1.603 0.026 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.995 0.213 0.425 3.260 0.146 0.603 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.009 0.063 0.578 1.412 0.043 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.970 0.142 -0.166 2.299 0.126 0.255 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.988 0.192 0.082 2.865 0.137 0.462 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 0.997 0.255 0.660 4.277 0.180 0.664 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 0.999 0.403 1.469 9.561 0.210 0.883 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.263 0.143 0.008 0.450 4.086 -0.180 0.779 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.180 SERIES 754092 AND 754131 139 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.779 SERIES 754021 AND 754022 282 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.335 0.233 0.191 0.331 0.350 0.307 0.329 0.436 0.261 0.200 SDEV 0.184 0.335 0.356 0.235 0.272 0.216 0.220 0.236 0.225 0.213 SERR 0.106 0.106 0.078 0.044 0.033 0.017 0.014 0.015 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.702 0.669 0.667 0.857 0.905 0.906 0.920 0.950 0.901 0.867 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.223 SDEV 0.214 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.881 NSS 25.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 1.019 0.311 2.123 10.486 0.160 0.771 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.219 -0.074 0.252 88 270 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.61 1.00 1.11 1.73 20.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.768 0.642 0.552 0.498 0.452 0.414 0.357 0.296 0.251 0.234 PACF 0.768 0.125 0.062 0.074 0.039 0.032 -0.037 -0.043 -0.006 0.043 95% C.L. 0.106 0.156 0.183 0.201 0.214 0.225 0.233 0.239 0.243 0.246 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.642 0.602 0.076 0.039 0.060 0.099 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.543 0.450 0.394 0.359 0.313 0.305 0.272 0.207 0.216 0.245 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.543 2 0.423 0.221 3 0.396 0.168 0.125 4 0.384 0.153 0.089 0.091 5 0.381 0.149 0.083 0.075 0.040 6 0.378 0.144 0.077 0.065 0.014 0.068 7 0.376 0.144 0.075 0.064 0.011 0.059 0.022 8 0.377 0.146 0.076 0.066 0.014 0.066 0.039 -0.044 9 0.379 0.144 0.073 0.066 0.011 0.062 0.032 -0.061 0.045 10 0.375 0.150 0.070 0.060 0.010 0.056 0.026 -0.074 0.012 0.088 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2722.88 2599.91 2584.06 2580.46 2579.49 2580.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2581.27 2583.09 2584.40 2585.68 2584.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.384 0.153 0.089 0.091 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 34.48 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 152.63 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.384 0.300 0.263 0.272 0.206 0.171 0.145 0.125 0.104 0.0874 0.074 0.062 0.052 0.044 0.037 0.031 0.026 0.022 0.019 0.0158 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0028 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 754011 4 0.141 0.298 -0.080 0.220 -0.175 2 754012 4 0.214 0.447 -0.110 0.232 -0.082 3 754021 4 0.541 0.456 0.101 0.206 0.072 4 754022 4 0.681 0.570 0.222 0.059 0.022 5 754031 4 0.133 0.322 0.083 -0.053 0.084 6 754032 4 0.098 0.275 0.095 -0.069 0.059 7 754041 4 0.247 0.479 0.015 -0.033 0.068 8 754042 4 0.353 0.584 0.015 -0.030 0.037 9 754051 4 0.542 0.613 0.096 0.131 -0.068 10 754052 4 0.416 0.633 -0.024 0.007 0.064 11 754061 4 0.272 0.440 0.074 0.064 0.020 12 754062 4 0.492 0.575 0.089 0.106 -0.012 13 754071 4 0.364 0.508 0.151 -0.072 0.047 14 754072 4 0.818 0.689 0.177 -0.041 0.107 15 754081 4 0.200 0.345 0.128 0.083 -0.064 16 754082 4 0.307 0.466 0.178 -0.042 -0.067 17 754091 4 0.519 0.527 0.135 0.031 0.107 18 754092 4 0.596 0.561 0.081 -0.029 0.243 19 754101 4 0.468 0.583 0.160 -0.067 0.041 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 754102 4 0.380 0.469 0.107 0.119 0.013 21 754111 4 0.429 0.456 0.138 0.022 0.148 22 754112 4 0.445 0.494 0.111 0.130 0.017 23 754121 4 0.481 0.565 0.050 0.237 -0.115 24 754122 4 0.435 0.673 -0.078 0.079 0.001 25 754131 4 0.227 0.427 0.115 -0.070 0.025 26 754132 4 0.217 0.354 0.160 -0.074 0.132 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.385 0.493 0.084 0.044 0.028 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.177 0.112 0.084 0.103 0.089 MEDIAN 4 0.398 0.486 0.099 0.027 0.031 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.265 0.136 0.088 0.160 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.098 0.275 -0.110 -0.074 -0.175 LOWER HINGE 4 0.227 0.440 0.050 -0.042 -0.012 UPPER HINGE 4 0.492 0.575 0.138 0.119 0.072 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.818 0.689 0.222 0.237 0.243 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.133 0.085 3.729 0.150 -0.018 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.133 -0.032 3.123 0.148 -0.005 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.168 0.157 2.939 0.188 0.001 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.144 0.016 3.298 0.159 0.003 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.184 0.527 4.026 0.205 0.001 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.182 0.564 3.493 0.203 -0.001 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.165 0.767 5.301 0.174 -0.012 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.161 0.811 5.014 0.170 -0.006 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.199 0.668 6.721 0.215 -0.065 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.162 0.152 3.275 0.171 -0.007 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.151 0.253 3.046 0.165 -0.003 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.160 0.088 2.963 0.175 -0.004 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.167 0.305 3.403 0.190 -0.006 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.169 0.030 3.466 0.191 -0.024 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.185 0.584 3.167 0.214 -0.005 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.188 0.086 2.585 0.222 -0.006 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.219 0.116 4.164 0.242 -0.014 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.214 0.723 5.080 0.231 -0.007 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.161 0.367 3.327 0.178 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.156 0.294 4.083 0.168 0.000 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.223 0.906 5.346 0.231 -0.014 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.215 0.492 4.092 0.233 0.003 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.162 0.543 3.779 0.179 0.009 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.160 0.419 3.729 0.182 0.001 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.139 0.248 2.892 0.156 -0.001 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.134 0.378 3.199 0.154 -0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.171 0.367 3.817 0.188 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.027 0.272 0.965 0.028 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.164 0.336 3.479 0.181 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.029 0.449 0.925 0.045 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.133 -0.032 2.585 0.148 -0.065 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.156 0.116 3.167 0.168 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.185 0.564 4.092 0.214 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.223 0.906 6.721 0.242 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.325 0.120 0.007 0.307 4.557 -0.025 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.025 SERIES 754011 AND 754121 85 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 754031 AND 754032 159 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.447 0.409 0.290 0.350 0.323 0.394 0.387 0.451 0.358 0.178 SDEV 0.239 0.233 0.249 0.201 0.211 0.159 0.177 0.148 0.145 0.158 SERR 0.138 0.074 0.054 0.038 0.026 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.790 0.822 0.776 0.867 0.894 0.934 0.937 0.953 0.935 0.849 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.333 SDEV 0.141 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.928 NSS 25.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.994 0.138 0.122 3.177 0.154 -0.006 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.071 0.035 0.082 91 267 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.50 1.00 1.06 1.56 26.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.16 0.00 0.80 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.068 -0.046 -0.058 0.000 0.035 0.042 -0.021 -0.007 0.079 PACF -0.006 -0.068 -0.047 -0.064 -0.008 0.024 0.037 -0.020 0.001 0.084 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.107 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.001 0.005 0.004 -0.006 0.029 0.038 -0.021 -0.005 0.074 PACF -0.001 0.001 0.005 0.004 -0.006 0.029 0.039 -0.021 -0.005 0.073 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 -0.001 0.001 0.005 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.997 0.171 0.234 3.122 0.129 0.556 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.554 0.463 0.405 0.365 0.288 0.257 0.214 0.149 0.120 0.119 PACF 0.554 0.225 0.123 0.085 -0.011 0.022 -0.004 -0.051 -0.011 0.028 95% C.L. 0.106 0.134 0.151 0.163 0.172 0.177 0.181 0.184 0.185 0.186 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.363 0.382 0.157 0.100 0.095 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES