RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO552X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO552X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 754 1 Red Mtn.Pass, (Silverton DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 754 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 3754-10743 1626 1983 754 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 0.676 0.059 -0.385 3.907 0.096 0.112 2 754012 1875 1983 109 0.649 0.064 -0.169 2.607 0.078 0.499 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.611 0.062 -0.255 2.669 0.080 0.505 4 754022 1694 1983 290 0.594 0.064 -0.130 2.583 0.089 0.450 5 754031 1816 1983 168 0.730 0.049 -0.280 3.467 0.069 0.171 6 754032 1825 1983 159 0.742 0.063 -0.774 3.254 0.060 0.616 7 754041 1792 1983 192 0.638 0.076 0.174 2.456 0.084 0.624 8 754042 1802 1983 182 0.610 0.080 -0.173 2.857 0.102 0.499 9 754051 1730 1983 254 0.593 0.087 0.047 2.292 0.110 0.555 10 754052 1775 1983 209 0.577 0.070 -0.102 2.426 0.118 0.275 11 754061 1793 1983 191 0.625 0.066 0.000 2.740 0.096 0.382 12 754062 1774 1983 210 0.630 0.079 -0.344 3.121 0.088 0.592 13 754071 1711 1983 273 0.682 0.063 -0.197 2.825 0.064 0.623 14 754072 1626 1983 358 0.698 0.062 -0.178 2.446 0.062 0.605 15 754081 1863 1983 121 0.661 0.057 0.004 3.325 0.071 0.370 16 754082 1818 1983 166 0.639 0.058 -0.057 2.697 0.091 0.250 17 754091 1668 1979 312 0.640 0.091 -0.125 2.461 0.100 0.575 18 754092 1669 1961 293 0.670 0.077 0.132 2.244 0.084 0.562 19 754101 1759 1983 225 0.718 0.067 -0.511 3.072 0.080 0.401 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 0.715 0.089 -0.744 3.257 0.091 0.574 21 754111 1781 1983 203 0.654 0.055 0.080 2.682 0.059 0.597 22 754112 1799 1983 185 0.659 0.065 -0.016 2.255 0.072 0.589 23 754121 1793 1983 191 0.678 0.071 -0.372 3.161 0.092 0.380 24 754122 1777 1983 207 0.670 0.068 -0.662 3.248 0.086 0.446 25 754131 1823 1983 161 0.728 0.050 -0.286 3.224 0.074 0.148 26 754132 1806 1983 178 0.741 0.059 -0.824 3.736 0.075 0.285 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1626 TO 1983 358 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.663 0.067 -0.236 2.885 0.084 0.449 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.047 0.011 0.279 0.457 0.015 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 0.660 0.065 -0.175 2.783 0.084 0.499 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.068 0.017 0.357 0.786 0.021 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.577 0.049 -0.824 2.244 0.059 0.112 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.630 0.059 -0.372 2.461 0.072 0.370 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 0.698 0.076 -0.016 3.248 0.092 0.589 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 0.742 0.091 0.174 3.907 0.118 0.624 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.339 0.208 0.012 -0.404 2.727 -0.238 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.238 SERIES 754062 AND 754072 210 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.217 0.517 0.443 0.518 0.425 0.521 0.521 0.497 0.415 0.304 SDEV 0.382 0.151 0.178 0.155 0.282 0.184 0.166 0.227 0.211 0.233 SERR 0.221 0.048 0.039 0.029 0.035 0.015 0.010 0.014 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.564 0.877 0.871 0.929 0.929 0.959 0.962 0.960 0.948 0.919 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.426 SDEV 0.210 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.950 NSS 25.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 0.673 0.048 -0.092 3.597 0.068 0.282 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.235 -0.171 0.183 33 325 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.40 1.00 1.04 1.44 4.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.83 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 198. 86. 85. 168. 254. 358. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.281 0.278 0.248 0.310 0.237 0.227 0.166 0.314 0.182 0.192 PACF 0.281 0.217 0.144 0.199 0.079 0.063 -0.005 0.186 -0.004 0.020 95% C.L. 0.106 0.114 0.121 0.127 0.135 0.139 0.143 0.146 0.153 0.155 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.190 0.141 0.140 0.098 0.190 0.084 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032636 0.68991596 2 754012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025401 0.63483691 3 754021 1 0.06795092 0.00882028 0.00000000 0.58640999 4 754022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001811 0.59122682 5 754031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036164 0.69932276 6 754032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00085189 0.67398697 7 754041 1 0.22152652 0.00762296 0.00000000 0.52240825 8 754042 1 0.08989893 0.01530151 0.00000000 0.58032912 9 754051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079522 0.49160218 10 754052 1 0.11210890 0.03971659 0.00000000 0.56384522 11 754061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037615 0.58912480 12 754062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032671 0.59562773 13 754071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046126 0.74550098 14 754072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014200 0.72331017 15 754081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00081486 0.61153305 16 754082 1 0.04464024 0.01522267 0.00000000 0.62260509 17 754091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068896 0.74766159 18 754092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052492 0.74760646 19 754101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007266 0.70947820 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075634 0.62241811 21 754111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014052 0.66866851 22 754112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044318 0.61818975 23 754121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036480 0.64272749 24 754122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041358 0.62684256 25 754131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013435 0.71675777 26 754132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051322 0.69479716 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.087 -0.210 3.849 0.095 0.090 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.098 -0.131 2.703 0.077 0.493 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.098 -0.179 2.581 0.080 0.471 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.108 -0.142 2.586 0.089 0.448 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.063 -0.508 3.766 0.068 0.055 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.067 -0.445 2.798 0.059 0.391 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.092 -0.303 3.107 0.084 0.378 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.125 -0.214 2.964 0.102 0.458 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.112 0.068 2.600 0.110 0.251 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.115 0.064 2.676 0.118 0.193 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.100 -0.023 2.819 0.096 0.314 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.123 -0.064 2.747 0.088 0.569 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.077 -0.106 2.776 0.064 0.441 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.086 -0.201 2.487 0.062 0.578 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.074 0.380 3.369 0.071 0.146 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.089 0.062 2.855 0.090 0.222 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.106 -0.256 3.057 0.100 0.241 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.092 -0.265 2.949 0.083 0.332 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.092 -0.557 3.068 0.080 0.393 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.101 -0.465 3.460 0.090 0.352 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.084 0.276 2.827 0.059 0.585 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.091 -0.347 2.464 0.072 0.524 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.100 -0.453 3.349 0.092 0.327 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.096 -0.439 2.913 0.086 0.389 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.068 -0.284 3.197 0.073 0.132 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.071 -0.606 3.504 0.075 0.111 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.093 -0.206 2.980 0.083 0.342 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.017 0.247 0.378 0.015 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.092 -0.212 2.884 0.084 0.365 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.018 0.375 0.493 0.020 0.236 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.063 -0.606 2.464 0.059 0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.084 -0.439 2.703 0.072 0.222 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.101 -0.064 3.197 0.092 0.458 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.125 0.380 3.849 0.118 0.585 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 754011 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 754012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 754021 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 754022 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 754031 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 754032 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 754041 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 754042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 754051 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 754052 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 754061 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 754062 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 754071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 754072 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 754081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 754082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 754091 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 754092 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 754101 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 754102 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 754111 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 754112 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 754121 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 754122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 754131 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 754132 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 0.999 0.077 -0.407 3.771 0.095 -0.124 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.077 -0.037 3.458 0.077 0.178 3 754021 1702 1983 282 0.999 0.087 -0.209 2.839 0.080 0.331 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.106 -0.149 2.564 0.089 0.416 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.062 -0.586 3.716 0.068 0.024 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.055 -0.547 3.658 0.059 0.108 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.090 -0.337 3.202 0.084 0.342 8 754042 1802 1983 182 0.999 0.111 -0.045 3.370 0.102 0.308 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.106 0.124 2.517 0.110 0.170 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.106 0.030 2.557 0.118 0.042 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.094 -0.288 2.830 0.096 0.226 12 754062 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.087 -0.033 2.769 0.088 0.163 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.073 -0.039 2.882 0.064 0.382 14 754072 1626 1983 358 0.999 0.073 -0.271 2.660 0.061 0.417 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.070 0.288 3.391 0.071 0.038 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.085 -0.058 2.820 0.090 0.166 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.104 -0.272 2.976 0.100 0.214 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.088 -0.272 3.326 0.083 0.278 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.084 -0.630 3.503 0.080 0.259 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.088 -0.677 3.952 0.090 0.159 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.071 0.074 2.687 0.059 0.412 22 754112 1799 1983 185 0.999 0.074 -0.403 2.722 0.071 0.241 23 754121 1793 1983 191 0.999 0.089 -0.440 3.483 0.092 0.141 24 754122 1777 1983 207 0.999 0.086 -0.403 2.736 0.086 0.240 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.063 -0.383 3.119 0.073 0.008 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.068 -0.592 3.567 0.075 0.033 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.084 -0.252 3.118 0.083 0.199 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.015 0.255 0.433 0.015 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.085 -0.272 3.048 0.084 0.196 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.017 0.368 0.747 0.020 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.999 0.055 -0.677 2.517 0.059 -0.124 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 0.999 0.073 -0.407 2.736 0.071 0.108 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.090 -0.039 3.483 0.092 0.308 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.111 0.288 3.952 0.118 0.417 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.430 0.135 0.007 -0.084 3.092 -0.020 0.837 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.020 SERIES 754012 AND 754042 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.837 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.267 0.530 0.479 0.556 0.505 0.546 0.542 0.543 0.414 0.312 SDEV 0.388 0.138 0.157 0.104 0.187 0.162 0.153 0.172 0.213 0.199 SERR 0.224 0.044 0.034 0.020 0.023 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.629 0.882 0.886 0.938 0.947 0.963 0.965 0.967 0.948 0.922 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.406 SDEV 0.195 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.946 NSS 25.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 1.002 0.061 -0.550 3.357 0.069 0.028 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.070 -0.032 0.088 74 284 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.44 1.01 1.05 1.49 8.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.83 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.028 0.060 0.001 0.109 0.019 0.013 -0.076 0.131 -0.033 -0.008 PACF 0.028 0.059 -0.003 0.106 0.014 0.000 -0.079 0.126 -0.037 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.110 0.110 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.045 0.081 -0.052 0.150 0.004 0.041 -0.083 0.215 -0.002 0.050 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.045 2 -0.041 0.079 3 -0.038 0.077 -0.046 4 -0.031 0.066 -0.040 0.141 5 -0.034 0.067 -0.042 0.142 0.023 6 -0.035 0.064 -0.041 0.141 0.023 0.019 7 -0.033 0.066 -0.031 0.138 0.028 0.016 -0.072 8 -0.020 0.063 -0.036 0.111 0.034 0.003 -0.066 0.193 9 -0.023 0.064 -0.036 0.111 0.032 0.004 -0.067 0.193 0.019 10 -0.023 0.062 -0.036 0.110 0.032 0.003 -0.066 0.192 0.019 0.011 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2132.83 2134.11 2133.89 2135.14 2129.93 2131.74 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2133.62 2133.76 2122.23 2124.10 2126.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.031 0.066 -0.040 0.141 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.00 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.09 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.031 0.067 -0.044 0.148 -0.015 0.022 -0.014 0.023 -0.005 0.0053 -0.003 0.004 -0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 754011 4 0.065 -0.111 0.126 0.132 -0.118 2 754012 4 0.099 0.122 0.240 0.066 0.001 3 754021 4 0.189 0.221 0.220 0.026 0.130 4 754022 4 0.294 0.228 0.257 0.070 0.150 5 754031 4 0.031 0.027 0.069 -0.138 -0.028 6 754032 4 0.060 0.115 0.132 -0.122 0.052 7 754041 4 0.159 0.260 0.118 0.073 0.105 8 754042 4 0.204 0.158 0.217 0.122 0.141 9 754051 4 0.103 0.093 0.204 0.103 0.089 10 754052 4 0.025 0.028 0.139 0.049 0.017 11 754061 4 0.140 0.172 0.247 -0.037 0.122 12 754062 4 0.072 0.150 0.089 -0.028 0.176 13 754071 4 0.169 0.329 0.058 0.090 0.057 14 754072 4 0.255 0.265 0.169 0.109 0.130 15 754081 4 0.109 0.080 0.209 -0.130 0.183 16 754082 4 0.131 0.165 0.140 -0.100 0.267 17 754091 4 0.078 0.188 0.080 -0.004 0.137 18 754092 4 0.114 0.233 0.056 0.054 0.151 19 754101 4 0.143 0.184 0.135 0.036 0.195 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 754102 4 0.075 0.111 0.111 0.082 0.137 21 754111 4 0.246 0.280 0.261 0.079 -0.006 22 754112 4 0.090 0.205 0.123 0.092 -0.053 23 754121 4 0.052 0.117 0.067 0.035 0.144 24 754122 4 0.128 0.154 0.143 0.197 0.022 25 754131 4 0.054 0.042 0.082 -0.166 0.117 26 754132 4 0.062 0.062 0.083 -0.118 0.197 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.121 0.149 0.145 0.022 0.097 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.071 0.096 0.066 0.098 0.089 MEDIAN 4 0.106 0.156 0.134 0.051 0.126 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.094 0.128 0.126 0.126 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.025 -0.111 0.056 -0.166 -0.118 LOWER HINGE 4 0.065 0.093 0.083 -0.037 0.022 UPPER HINGE 4 0.159 0.221 0.209 0.090 0.150 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.294 0.329 0.261 0.197 0.267 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 754011 1899 1983 85 1.000 0.075 -0.522 4.141 0.084 0.012 2 754012 1875 1983 109 1.000 0.073 -0.243 2.962 0.080 0.009 3 754021 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.078 -0.221 2.970 0.087 -0.001 4 754022 1694 1983 290 1.000 0.089 -0.213 2.968 0.097 -0.018 5 754031 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.061 -0.575 3.698 0.069 -0.002 6 754032 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.054 -0.506 3.436 0.061 0.007 7 754041 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.082 -0.213 3.209 0.094 -0.003 8 754042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.099 0.466 4.410 0.110 0.001 9 754051 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.100 0.148 2.412 0.114 0.000 10 754052 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.104 0.001 2.444 0.118 -0.001 11 754061 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.087 -0.275 2.796 0.100 -0.002 12 754062 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.084 -0.079 2.661 0.094 0.008 13 754071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.067 -0.038 3.223 0.076 -0.001 14 754072 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.063 0.018 3.168 0.070 -0.008 15 754081 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.066 0.258 3.934 0.071 0.002 16 754082 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.079 0.040 2.976 0.090 0.010 17 754091 1668 1979 312 1.000 0.100 -0.231 3.146 0.110 -0.010 18 754092 1669 1961 293 1.000 0.083 -0.359 3.346 0.091 -0.006 19 754101 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.078 -0.490 3.360 0.087 -0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 754102 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.085 -0.473 3.435 0.095 -0.010 21 754111 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.062 0.119 2.736 0.067 0.003 22 754112 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.071 -0.327 2.937 0.078 -0.004 23 754121 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.087 -0.332 3.331 0.097 -0.006 24 754122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.080 -0.464 3.175 0.091 -0.002 25 754131 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.062 -0.159 2.868 0.071 0.009 26 754132 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.066 -0.517 3.240 0.075 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 1.000 0.078 -0.199 3.192 0.088 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.014 0.268 0.472 0.015 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.079 -0.226 3.171 0.089 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.021 0.465 0.423 0.022 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 85 1.000 0.054 -0.575 2.412 0.061 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 168 1.000 0.066 -0.464 2.937 0.075 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.087 0.001 3.360 0.097 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 358 1.000 0.104 0.466 4.410 0.118 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.480 0.128 0.007 -0.646 4.150 0.036 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.036 SERIES 754011 AND 754072 85 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 754011 AND 754012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 47.78 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 3. 10. 21. 28. 66. 153. 253. 253. 300. 325. RBAR 0.368 0.577 0.560 0.559 0.633 0.637 0.599 0.576 0.439 0.325 SDEV 0.282 0.118 0.111 0.085 0.105 0.120 0.114 0.134 0.175 0.164 SERR 0.163 0.037 0.024 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.007 0.008 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.731 0.901 0.915 0.939 0.968 0.974 0.972 0.971 0.952 0.926 NSS 4.7 6.7 8.5 12.1 17.6 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.0 YEAR 1955. CORR 300. RBAR 0.434 SDEV 0.187 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.952 NSS 25.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.060 -0.453 3.218 0.072 -0.114 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.003 -0.001 0.050 71 287 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.44 1.01 1.07 1.51 94.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.114 -0.074 -0.052 -0.028 0.012 -0.017 -0.094 0.121 -0.037 -0.040 PACF -0.114 -0.088 -0.072 -0.051 -0.009 -0.028 -0.108 0.093 -0.032 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.110 0.111 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.026 -0.125 -0.088 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.002 -0.008 -0.007 -0.017 -0.034 -0.098 0.098 -0.044 -0.049 PACF 0.000 -0.002 -0.008 -0.007 -0.017 -0.034 -0.098 0.098 -0.047 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.008 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.060 -0.556 3.475 0.070 -0.056 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.056 0.078 -0.079 0.161 -0.055 0.002 -0.129 0.129 -0.078 -0.015 PACF -0.056 0.075 -0.071 0.150 -0.033 -0.029 -0.106 0.098 -0.048 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.112 0.114 0.114 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES