RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO553E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO553E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 756 1 Pike Peaks WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 756 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3600 3920-10502 1530 1983 756 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 756061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 756062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 0.299 0.156 1.349 4.987 0.260 0.791 2 756012 1563 1983 421 0.235 0.109 1.132 4.348 0.254 0.782 3 756021 1677 1983 307 0.540 0.237 0.264 2.266 0.195 0.861 4 756022 1668 1983 316 0.382 0.191 0.326 2.405 0.250 0.842 5 756031 1771 1983 213 0.778 0.473 1.087 4.278 0.202 0.902 6 756032 1795 1983 189 0.647 0.288 1.087 3.974 0.204 0.847 7 756041 1530 1983 454 0.291 0.164 0.922 3.325 0.264 0.837 8 756042 1576 1983 408 0.303 0.152 1.208 5.860 0.271 0.784 9 756051 1793 1983 191 0.883 0.256 0.437 3.726 0.132 0.826 10 756052 1789 1983 195 0.797 0.295 0.928 4.090 0.152 0.797 11 756061 1708 1983 276 0.409 0.189 0.318 2.292 0.202 0.842 12 756062 1666 1983 318 0.376 0.227 0.916 2.990 0.209 0.904 13 756071 1674 1983 310 0.441 0.166 0.358 2.948 0.240 0.711 14 756072 1652 1983 332 0.438 0.185 0.302 2.936 0.243 0.782 15 756081 1729 1983 255 0.511 0.148 -0.240 3.419 0.181 0.707 16 756082 1646 1983 338 0.310 0.160 0.052 2.073 0.208 0.868 17 756091 1655 1983 329 0.409 0.187 0.609 3.183 0.238 0.815 18 756092 1660 1983 324 0.480 0.288 0.621 2.332 0.238 0.912 19 756101 1781 1983 203 0.323 0.215 0.912 3.132 0.265 0.876 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 0.504 0.217 1.011 4.100 0.213 0.776 21 756111 1748 1983 236 0.583 0.154 0.472 3.134 0.151 0.716 22 756112 1755 1983 229 0.568 0.144 0.219 2.768 0.153 0.715 23 756121 1724 1983 260 0.446 0.130 -0.093 2.599 0.170 0.763 24 756122 1734 1983 250 0.379 0.148 0.043 2.662 0.203 0.819 25 756131 1644 1983 340 0.257 0.079 0.690 3.947 0.245 0.526 26 756132 1652 1983 332 0.360 0.178 2.054 8.687 0.211 0.846 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1530 TO 1983 454 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 0.460 0.198 0.653 3.556 0.214 0.802 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.169 0.078 0.518 1.386 0.040 0.082 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 0.423 0.181 0.615 3.158 0.210 0.817 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.217 0.075 0.708 1.428 0.050 0.071 MINIMUM VALUE 189 0.235 0.079 -0.240 2.073 0.132 0.526 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 0.323 0.152 0.302 2.662 0.195 0.776 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 0.540 0.227 1.011 4.090 0.245 0.847 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 0.883 0.473 2.054 8.687 0.271 0.912 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.280 0.287 0.016 -0.263 2.835 -0.536 0.900 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.536 SERIES 756031 AND 756132 213 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.900 SERIES 756021 AND 756022 307 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.384 0.559 0.516 0.641 0.276 0.254 0.204 0.324 0.300 0.358 SDEV 0.208 0.243 0.180 0.145 0.288 0.301 0.326 0.226 0.288 0.293 SERR 0.120 0.099 0.073 0.059 0.043 0.032 0.030 0.017 0.020 0.018 EPS 0.702 0.835 0.857 0.948 0.841 0.845 0.827 0.910 0.911 0.935 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.422 0.393 0.361 0.367 0.522 SDEV 0.233 0.246 0.272 0.249 0.180 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.014 0.010 EPS 0.950 0.944 0.936 0.938 0.966 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.400 0.112 0.345 3.254 0.172 0.698 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.316 0.238 0.079 181 273 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.64 1.17 1.00 1.21 2.39 11.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 308. 96. 189. 236. 332. 454. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.696 0.601 0.508 0.470 0.421 0.413 0.358 0.320 0.320 0.302 PACF 0.696 0.225 0.055 0.095 0.034 0.086 -0.025 -0.007 0.077 0.015 95% C.L. 0.094 0.132 0.154 0.168 0.179 0.188 0.196 0.201 0.206 0.210 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.513 0.539 0.226 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 756011 1 0.53510469 0.02299781 0.00000000 0.24579901 2 756012 1 0.34163174 0.02807935 0.00000000 0.20656502 3 756021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00207270 0.85874051 4 756022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00165929 0.64461124 5 756031 1 1.59054315 0.01382720 0.00000000 0.26970801 6 756032 1 0.77719510 0.02038488 0.00000000 0.45128089 7 756041 1 0.29507586 0.00822462 0.00000000 0.21444455 8 756042 1 0.23880301 0.02046681 0.00000000 0.27486387 9 756051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105893 0.78169304 10 756052 1 0.85020602 0.02764289 0.00000000 0.64224011 11 756061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181176 0.65871066 12 756062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100583 0.53608662 13 756071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058202 0.53173065 14 756072 1 0.22280213 0.01131459 0.00000000 0.38032728 15 756081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035931 0.55728579 16 756082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00094926 0.14918950 17 756091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00119467 0.60614794 18 756092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00203920 0.81152374 19 756101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00311317 0.64025313 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 756102 1 0.69467413 0.01387238 0.00000000 0.32976094 21 756111 1 0.49519202 0.00170216 0.00000000 0.17516564 22 756112 1 0.18070959 0.03498291 0.00000000 0.54592139 23 756121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027848 0.40927413 24 756122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00063841 0.29903904 25 756131 1 0.19511421 0.03401293 0.00000000 0.24067916 26 756132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122505 0.15648091 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.401 0.888 4.100 0.259 0.670 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.397 1.011 4.441 0.253 0.692 3 756021 1677 1983 307 0.995 0.286 0.647 4.369 0.194 0.657 4 756022 1668 1983 316 0.998 0.343 0.724 4.766 0.249 0.598 5 756031 1771 1983 213 0.994 0.352 0.435 2.878 0.201 0.755 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.342 1.762 10.093 0.203 0.725 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.535 1.381 5.502 0.264 0.808 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.496 1.640 8.505 0.270 0.783 9 756051 1793 1983 191 0.999 0.281 0.420 3.807 0.132 0.808 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.269 -0.022 2.951 0.151 0.710 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.314 0.176 3.026 0.205 0.685 12 756062 1666 1983 318 0.991 0.500 0.630 2.910 0.210 0.864 13 756071 1674 1983 310 0.999 0.346 0.097 2.968 0.239 0.660 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.395 0.092 3.020 0.243 0.741 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.292 -0.069 3.675 0.180 0.704 16 756082 1646 1983 338 0.980 0.445 0.484 2.680 0.208 0.848 17 756091 1655 1983 329 0.989 0.341 0.564 3.708 0.237 0.634 18 756092 1660 1983 324 0.996 0.426 0.164 2.006 0.238 0.782 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.538 2.637 6.172 48.038 0.268 0.692 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.269 0.209 3.059 0.212 0.530 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.249 0.307 2.975 0.150 0.682 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.246 0.223 2.750 0.152 0.699 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.285 -0.169 2.720 0.169 0.748 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.361 -0.366 2.688 0.202 0.786 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.278 0.460 3.847 0.244 0.424 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.029 0.391 1.441 5.983 0.210 0.726 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.020 0.441 0.742 5.672 0.213 0.708 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.106 0.455 1.237 8.833 0.040 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.345 0.448 3.367 0.210 0.707 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.002 0.116 0.724 1.531 0.050 0.112 MINIMUM VALUE 189 0.980 0.246 -0.366 2.006 0.132 0.424 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 0.998 0.285 0.164 2.910 0.194 0.670 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.401 0.888 4.441 0.244 0.782 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.538 2.637 6.172 48.038 0.270 0.864 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 756011 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 756012 -67 282 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 756021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 756022 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 756031 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 756032 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 756041 -67 304 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 756042 -67 273 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 756051 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 756052 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 756061 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 756062 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 756071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 756072 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 756081 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 756082 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 756091 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 756092 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 756101 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 756102 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 756111 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 756112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 756121 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 756122 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 756131 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 756132 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 0.994 0.364 0.691 3.509 0.259 0.608 2 756012 1563 1983 421 0.996 0.362 0.657 3.553 0.253 0.634 3 756021 1677 1983 307 0.999 0.278 0.541 4.252 0.194 0.628 4 756022 1668 1983 316 0.997 0.325 0.513 4.065 0.250 0.562 5 756031 1771 1983 213 0.992 0.260 0.022 2.774 0.201 0.555 6 756032 1795 1983 189 0.995 0.308 1.292 7.783 0.203 0.677 7 756041 1530 1983 454 0.993 0.488 1.129 4.646 0.264 0.786 8 756042 1576 1983 408 0.995 0.436 1.135 6.094 0.270 0.740 9 756051 1793 1983 191 0.994 0.204 -0.152 4.298 0.131 0.676 10 756052 1789 1983 195 0.999 0.264 -0.038 2.980 0.151 0.698 11 756061 1708 1983 276 0.995 0.283 0.116 3.180 0.205 0.617 12 756062 1666 1983 318 0.967 0.318 0.415 3.646 0.210 0.692 13 756071 1674 1983 310 0.998 0.337 0.086 2.922 0.239 0.640 14 756072 1652 1983 332 0.995 0.380 0.031 3.123 0.243 0.721 15 756081 1729 1983 255 0.993 0.266 -0.140 4.216 0.180 0.650 16 756082 1646 1983 338 0.988 0.354 0.534 3.407 0.208 0.744 17 756091 1655 1983 329 0.995 0.288 0.542 3.897 0.237 0.448 18 756092 1660 1983 324 0.976 0.335 0.241 2.869 0.238 0.660 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.106 0.528 1.008 5.252 0.264 0.665 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 0.998 0.252 0.169 3.433 0.212 0.462 21 756111 1748 1983 236 0.996 0.226 0.463 3.714 0.150 0.611 22 756112 1755 1983 229 0.997 0.230 0.323 3.122 0.152 0.656 23 756121 1724 1983 260 0.997 0.260 -0.226 2.608 0.169 0.679 24 756122 1734 1983 250 0.992 0.345 -0.308 2.783 0.202 0.764 25 756131 1644 1983 340 0.999 0.269 0.413 4.176 0.244 0.394 26 756132 1652 1983 332 0.997 0.244 0.475 3.644 0.210 0.423 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 0.998 0.316 0.382 3.844 0.213 0.630 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.023 0.079 0.433 1.138 0.040 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 0.995 0.298 0.414 3.598 0.210 0.653 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.004 0.094 0.511 1.094 0.050 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 189 0.967 0.204 -0.308 2.608 0.131 0.394 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 0.993 0.260 0.031 3.122 0.194 0.608 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 0.997 0.354 0.542 4.216 0.244 0.692 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.106 0.528 1.292 7.783 0.270 0.786 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.342 0.132 0.007 0.458 3.577 0.011 0.798 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.011 SERIES 756112 AND 756122 229 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.798 SERIES 756021 AND 756022 307 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.375 0.454 0.495 0.539 0.288 0.270 0.242 0.354 0.311 0.325 SDEV 0.151 0.295 0.183 0.188 0.285 0.262 0.241 0.202 0.276 0.273 SERR 0.087 0.120 0.075 0.077 0.042 0.027 0.022 0.015 0.019 0.016 EPS 0.694 0.769 0.847 0.922 0.849 0.856 0.857 0.921 0.915 0.926 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.422 0.438 0.403 0.387 0.487 SDEV 0.207 0.217 0.224 0.236 0.194 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.950 0.953 0.946 0.943 0.961 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.980 0.225 0.363 3.439 0.178 0.507 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.172 0.072 0.154 139 315 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 0.87 1.00 1.10 1.96 13.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.506 0.429 0.296 0.261 0.184 0.176 0.062 0.034 0.049 -0.002 PACF 0.506 0.233 0.017 0.059 -0.010 0.042 -0.099 -0.035 0.061 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.094 0.115 0.129 0.135 0.139 0.141 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.297 0.388 0.233 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.484 0.454 0.292 0.276 0.177 0.196 0.094 0.061 0.090 0.076 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.484 2 0.345 0.287 3 0.346 0.289 -0.005 4 0.347 0.270 -0.028 0.066 5 0.348 0.269 -0.021 0.074 -0.024 6 0.350 0.264 -0.020 0.057 -0.046 0.063 7 0.354 0.262 -0.016 0.056 -0.030 0.084 -0.061 8 0.350 0.266 -0.018 0.059 -0.031 0.098 -0.042 -0.053 9 0.355 0.270 -0.027 0.062 -0.036 0.099 -0.065 -0.083 0.087 10 0.353 0.271 -0.025 0.060 -0.035 0.098 -0.065 -0.088 0.081 0.017 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4003.12 3883.98 3846.89 3848.88 3848.89 3850.64 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3850.84 3851.17 3851.92 3850.43 3852.30 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.345 0.287 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 29.74 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 142.32 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.345 0.406 0.239 0.199 0.137 0.105 0.076 0.056 0.041 0.0303 0.022 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0014 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 756011 2 0.411 0.467 0.231 2 756012 2 0.466 0.445 0.299 3 756021 2 0.404 0.578 0.084 4 756022 2 0.334 0.482 0.147 5 756031 2 0.357 0.443 0.206 6 756032 2 0.475 0.566 0.165 7 756041 2 0.635 0.627 0.202 8 756042 2 0.555 0.660 0.108 9 756051 2 0.485 0.543 0.203 10 756052 2 0.499 0.657 0.066 11 756061 2 0.417 0.490 0.208 12 756062 2 0.518 0.515 0.256 13 756071 2 0.479 0.428 0.334 14 756072 2 0.548 0.552 0.235 15 756081 2 0.472 0.464 0.287 16 756082 2 0.618 0.473 0.365 17 756091 2 0.266 0.323 0.281 18 756092 2 0.544 0.385 0.421 19 756101 2 0.628 0.336 0.519 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 756102 2 0.288 0.324 0.300 21 756111 2 0.390 0.549 0.107 22 756112 2 0.448 0.564 0.144 23 756121 2 0.501 0.524 0.235 24 756122 2 0.604 0.619 0.193 25 756131 2 0.204 0.299 0.241 26 756132 2 0.213 0.350 0.181 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.452 0.487 0.232 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.121 0.106 0.104 MEDIAN 2 0.473 0.486 0.220 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.154 0.136 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.204 0.299 0.066 LOWER HINGE 2 0.390 0.428 0.165 UPPER HINGE 2 0.544 0.564 0.287 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.635 0.660 0.519 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 756011 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.282 0.550 3.659 0.320 -0.027 2 756012 1563 1983 421 1.000 0.267 0.286 3.384 0.309 -0.041 3 756021 1677 1983 307 1.000 0.215 0.376 3.885 0.237 -0.003 4 756022 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.266 0.290 3.671 0.294 0.004 5 756031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.211 0.343 3.375 0.236 -0.033 6 756032 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.223 0.818 6.998 0.251 0.004 7 756041 1530 1983 454 1.000 0.296 0.517 4.711 0.319 -0.013 8 756042 1576 1983 408 1.000 0.291 0.483 3.798 0.335 0.005 9 756051 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.146 0.342 4.107 0.162 -0.001 10 756052 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.187 -0.734 6.417 0.200 0.007 11 756061 1708 1983 276 1.000 0.218 -0.007 3.782 0.250 -0.024 12 756062 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.222 0.228 3.995 0.249 -0.027 13 756071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.243 0.457 3.120 0.265 0.008 14 756072 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.256 0.392 3.245 0.278 0.013 15 756081 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.193 0.388 3.252 0.215 -0.011 16 756082 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.219 -0.107 4.403 0.248 -0.035 17 756091 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.247 0.343 3.778 0.266 0.014 18 756092 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.226 0.020 3.024 0.260 -0.022 19 756101 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.322 1.146 7.460 0.322 -0.033 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 756102 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.213 0.063 2.988 0.244 -0.020 21 756111 1748 1983 236 1.000 0.176 0.295 3.611 0.194 -0.013 22 756112 1755 1983 229 1.000 0.171 -0.046 3.168 0.194 -0.004 23 756121 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.184 -0.015 3.181 0.210 0.018 24 756122 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.217 0.248 4.296 0.242 0.010 25 756131 1644 1983 340 1.000 0.240 0.205 4.124 0.274 0.001 26 756132 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.217 0.165 3.308 0.242 0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 298 1.000 0.229 0.271 4.028 0.254 -0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 75 0.000 0.042 0.339 1.176 0.044 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 308 1.000 0.221 0.293 3.725 0.250 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 96 0.000 0.045 0.329 0.871 0.042 0.031 MINIMUM VALUE 189 1.000 0.146 -0.734 2.988 0.162 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 236 1.000 0.211 0.063 3.252 0.236 -0.024 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 332 1.000 0.256 0.392 4.124 0.278 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 454 1.000 0.322 1.146 7.460 0.335 0.018 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.468 0.085 0.005 0.615 4.780 0.240 0.793 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.240 SERIES 756052 AND 756091 195 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.793 SERIES 756121 AND 756122 250 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.00 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1590. 1615. 1640. 1665. 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 45. 91. 120. 171. 210. 276. RBAR 0.515 0.683 0.622 0.509 0.345 0.289 0.445 0.576 0.486 0.472 SDEV 0.091 0.096 0.144 0.223 0.193 0.178 0.126 0.092 0.129 0.128 SERR 0.052 0.039 0.059 0.091 0.029 0.019 0.012 0.007 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.801 0.896 0.902 0.913 0.880 0.867 0.937 0.966 0.958 0.959 NSS 3.8 4.0 5.6 10.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 21.1 23.9 25.8 YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.505 0.539 0.565 0.533 0.500 SDEV 0.128 0.139 0.119 0.117 0.140 SERR 0.007 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.008 EPS 0.964 0.968 0.971 0.967 0.963 NSS 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.998 0.178 0.202 3.081 0.211 -0.116 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.127 0.049 0.101 121 333 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.50 1.00 1.10 1.60 10.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.116 -0.051 -0.039 0.032 -0.010 0.079 -0.042 -0.069 0.033 -0.061 PACF -0.116 -0.065 -0.053 0.018 -0.010 0.080 -0.022 -0.070 0.020 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.018 -0.116 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.005 -0.051 0.028 -0.001 0.073 -0.041 -0.072 0.016 -0.059 PACF -0.004 -0.005 -0.051 0.028 -0.001 0.071 -0.038 -0.072 0.022 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 -0.004 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1530 1983 454 0.997 0.208 0.398 3.600 0.169 0.466 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.465 0.440 0.255 0.238 0.148 0.139 0.043 -0.003 0.018 -0.023 PACF 0.465 0.286 -0.033 0.049 -0.010 0.020 -0.069 -0.069 0.059 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.094 0.112 0.127 0.131 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.138 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.281 0.332 0.286 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES