RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO554L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO554L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 683 1 Cottonwood Pass WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 683 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3700 3840-10735 1565 1982 683 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 683011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1780 1784 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 683012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1771 1775 / 1824 1828 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 683021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 683022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1689 1689 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 683062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1930 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 683071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1809 1809 / 1915 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 683101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1737 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 683121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1844 1848 / 1869 1873 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 683132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1763 1767 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 0.157 0.105 4.280 27.540 0.207 0.768 2 683012 1647 1982 336 0.150 0.056 1.774 6.451 0.186 0.700 3 683021 1596 1982 387 0.130 0.050 0.654 3.335 0.181 0.803 4 683022 1652 1982 331 0.149 0.040 0.486 2.896 0.189 0.551 5 683031 1755 1982 228 0.131 0.034 0.412 3.177 0.162 0.684 6 683032 1722 1982 261 0.108 0.049 2.238 9.446 0.157 0.859 7 683041 1789 1982 194 0.147 0.057 3.021 19.863 0.212 0.613 8 683042 1830 1982 153 0.170 0.074 4.327 33.590 0.232 0.454 9 683051 1752 1982 231 0.175 0.060 1.633 6.027 0.184 0.694 10 683052 1740 1982 243 0.203 0.055 1.565 6.999 0.157 0.612 11 683061 1695 1982 288 0.167 0.091 1.430 5.281 0.177 0.867 12 683062 1698 1982 285 0.168 0.058 0.806 3.054 0.177 0.761 13 683071 1727 1982 256 0.211 0.130 1.503 6.282 0.201 0.830 14 683072 1780 1982 203 0.200 0.100 1.562 5.780 0.219 0.782 15 683081 1565 1982 418 0.145 0.050 1.157 4.481 0.176 0.734 16 683082 1631 1982 352 0.145 0.067 1.166 4.003 0.158 0.870 17 683101 1725 1982 258 0.197 0.051 0.443 3.222 0.186 0.524 18 683102 1746 1982 237 0.160 0.030 0.272 2.506 0.161 0.347 19 683111 1706 1982 277 0.129 0.046 1.588 8.197 0.205 0.560 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 0.123 0.047 2.146 15.644 0.178 0.615 21 683121 1693 1982 290 0.137 0.079 1.727 5.666 0.180 0.881 22 683122 1697 1982 286 0.146 0.042 1.992 9.450 0.153 0.661 23 683131 1630 1982 353 0.161 0.070 0.682 2.780 0.140 0.884 24 683132 1588 1982 395 0.135 0.074 2.728 13.210 0.137 0.897 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1565 TO 1982 418 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 285 0.156 0.063 1.650 8.703 0.180 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 65 0.027 0.024 1.090 8.042 0.024 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 282 0.150 0.056 1.564 5.903 0.179 0.717 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 88 0.033 0.026 1.325 6.170 0.036 0.232 MINIMUM VALUE 153 0.108 0.030 0.272 2.506 0.137 0.347 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 0.136 0.048 0.744 3.278 0.159 0.612 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 328 0.169 0.074 2.069 9.448 0.195 0.844 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 0.211 0.130 4.327 33.590 0.232 0.897 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.288 0.233 0.014 0.065 2.436 -0.292 0.783 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.292 SERIES 683052 AND 683072 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.783 SERIES 683041 AND 683042 153 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR -0.627 0.264 0.406 0.108 0.094 0.182 0.262 0.221 0.329 0.212 SDEV 0.000 0.051 0.192 0.299 0.216 0.225 0.232 0.220 0.207 0.204 SERR 0.000 0.030 0.061 0.057 0.029 0.024 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.013 EPS 3.692 0.670 0.843 0.570 0.608 0.804 0.882 0.864 0.920 0.865 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.184 0.141 0.125 0.107 SDEV 0.210 0.233 0.222 0.228 SERR 0.013 0.014 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.844 0.797 0.774 0.741 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 0.159 0.045 1.542 6.473 0.107 0.820 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.382 0.297 0.005 199 219 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 1.26 1.00 1.14 2.41 23.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 286. 94. 153. 240. 334. 418. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.818 0.745 0.692 0.637 0.590 0.536 0.487 0.452 0.441 0.400 PACF 0.818 0.229 0.111 0.029 0.020 -0.025 -0.014 0.019 0.086 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.098 0.150 0.182 0.205 0.223 0.238 0.249 0.258 0.266 0.272 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.712 0.562 0.191 0.138 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 683011 1 0.84674913 0.11612662 0.00000000 0.13534705 2 683012 1 0.20995912 0.02870764 0.00000000 0.12811150 3 683021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018531 0.16516645 4 683022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009471 0.13343811 5 683031 1 0.07523745 0.02829600 0.00000000 0.11935406 6 683032 1 0.20544428 0.03000905 0.00000000 0.08206524 7 683041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015180 0.13262218 8 683042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046420 0.13432233 9 683051 1 0.29404485 0.10204313 0.00000000 0.16364925 10 683052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012417 0.18830834 11 683061 1 0.29395255 0.00888431 0.00000000 0.06149248 12 683062 1 0.17502695 0.00847133 0.00000000 0.10182226 13 683071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00138354 0.38840434 14 683072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113292 0.31590256 15 683081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024184 0.19585763 16 683082 1 0.21699812 0.00505137 0.00000000 0.04433112 17 683101 1 0.05620599 0.03344856 0.00000000 0.19075893 18 683102 1 0.04218278 0.04814211 0.00000000 0.15664437 19 683111 1 0.11461128 0.00766731 0.00000000 0.08170430 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 683112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018208 0.15069045 21 683121 1 0.30930051 0.02077026 0.00000000 0.08440663 22 683122 1 0.15621009 0.04141797 0.00000000 0.13344800 23 683131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052764 0.25407305 24 683132 1 0.36642024 0.03387888 0.00000000 0.10853601 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 1.000 0.363 1.690 9.505 0.208 0.594 2 683012 1647 1982 336 1.000 0.251 2.981 23.672 0.184 0.328 3 683021 1596 1982 387 0.997 0.335 0.420 3.001 0.180 0.755 4 683022 1652 1982 331 1.000 0.262 0.540 2.851 0.188 0.540 5 683031 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.235 0.641 3.591 0.162 0.595 6 683032 1722 1982 261 1.000 0.197 0.375 3.133 0.157 0.485 7 683041 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.385 3.076 20.410 0.211 0.605 8 683042 1830 1982 153 0.999 0.432 5.469 45.833 0.230 0.400 9 683051 1752 1982 231 1.000 0.271 1.170 4.296 0.183 0.534 10 683052 1740 1982 243 1.000 0.270 1.790 9.430 0.157 0.588 11 683061 1695 1982 288 1.003 0.308 1.579 6.415 0.177 0.706 12 683062 1698 1982 285 1.000 0.224 0.614 3.975 0.176 0.447 13 683071 1727 1982 256 1.038 0.361 1.342 5.653 0.202 0.616 14 683072 1780 1982 203 1.009 0.343 0.951 3.783 0.218 0.619 15 683081 1565 1982 418 0.999 0.256 0.913 4.693 0.176 0.568 16 683082 1631 1982 352 0.999 0.276 1.336 5.208 0.158 0.684 17 683101 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.254 0.684 3.825 0.182 0.500 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.183 0.392 2.727 0.161 0.309 19 683111 1706 1982 277 1.000 0.275 1.709 8.541 0.205 0.378 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 1.000 0.357 1.637 8.887 0.178 0.656 21 683121 1693 1982 290 1.000 0.236 1.880 11.977 0.179 0.345 22 683122 1697 1982 286 1.000 0.198 0.951 5.283 0.152 0.408 23 683131 1630 1982 353 1.010 0.299 0.729 3.454 0.140 0.764 24 683132 1588 1982 395 1.000 0.276 0.579 3.735 0.137 0.798 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.002 0.285 1.394 8.495 0.179 0.551 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.008 0.064 1.138 9.571 0.024 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 1.000 0.273 1.060 4.951 0.178 0.578 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.000 0.096 1.072 5.496 0.036 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 153 0.997 0.183 0.375 2.727 0.137 0.309 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.244 0.628 3.663 0.159 0.428 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.339 1.700 9.159 0.195 0.638 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.038 0.432 5.469 45.833 0.230 0.798 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 683011 -67 218 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 683012 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 683021 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 683022 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 683031 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 683032 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 683041 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 683042 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 683051 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 683052 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 683061 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 683062 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 683071 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 683072 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 683081 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 683082 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 683101 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 683102 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 683111 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 683112 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 683121 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 683122 -67 191 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 683131 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 683132 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 0.993 0.288 1.691 8.657 0.208 0.430 2 683012 1647 1982 336 1.000 0.243 2.734 21.466 0.184 0.307 3 683021 1596 1982 387 0.991 0.265 0.509 3.785 0.180 0.630 4 683022 1652 1982 331 0.996 0.222 0.623 3.417 0.189 0.366 5 683031 1755 1982 228 0.995 0.194 0.409 3.199 0.162 0.408 6 683032 1722 1982 261 0.998 0.186 0.407 3.238 0.157 0.416 7 683041 1789 1982 194 0.991 0.345 3.304 21.762 0.211 0.536 8 683042 1830 1982 153 0.997 0.375 4.713 38.618 0.231 0.343 9 683051 1752 1982 231 0.999 0.240 1.082 4.647 0.183 0.401 10 683052 1740 1982 243 0.995 0.211 1.312 7.102 0.157 0.433 11 683061 1695 1982 288 0.997 0.271 1.156 4.747 0.177 0.618 12 683062 1698 1982 285 0.998 0.214 0.748 4.558 0.176 0.389 13 683071 1727 1982 256 0.997 0.293 1.171 6.128 0.202 0.524 14 683072 1780 1982 203 0.994 0.301 1.103 4.321 0.218 0.516 15 683081 1565 1982 418 0.999 0.246 0.813 4.220 0.176 0.540 16 683082 1631 1982 352 0.996 0.246 1.025 4.537 0.158 0.616 17 683101 1725 1982 258 0.998 0.222 0.614 3.802 0.182 0.373 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.181 0.377 2.656 0.161 0.297 19 683111 1706 1982 277 0.999 0.269 1.762 8.993 0.205 0.358 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 0.989 0.278 1.581 9.056 0.178 0.518 21 683121 1693 1982 290 0.998 0.224 1.932 12.018 0.179 0.291 22 683122 1697 1982 286 0.999 0.193 1.137 6.168 0.153 0.365 23 683131 1630 1982 353 0.991 0.219 1.090 5.593 0.140 0.588 24 683132 1588 1982 395 0.993 0.220 0.305 3.362 0.137 0.676 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 0.996 0.248 1.317 8.169 0.179 0.456 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.003 0.049 1.029 8.250 0.024 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 0.997 0.241 1.097 4.697 0.178 0.423 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.005 0.058 1.017 5.032 0.036 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 153 0.989 0.181 0.305 2.656 0.137 0.291 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 0.993 0.217 0.619 3.793 0.159 0.365 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 0.998 0.275 1.636 8.825 0.195 0.538 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.000 0.375 4.713 38.618 0.231 0.676 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.155 0.115 0.007 0.351 4.638 -0.181 0.725 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.181 SERIES 683072 AND 683122 203 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.725 SERIES 683041 AND 683042 153 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR -0.145 0.360 0.393 0.196 0.094 0.241 0.177 0.168 0.237 0.243 SDEV 0.000 0.085 0.187 0.192 0.175 0.210 0.217 0.212 0.199 0.178 SERR 0.000 0.049 0.059 0.036 0.024 0.022 0.018 0.015 0.013 0.011 EPS -0.818 0.761 0.835 0.727 0.609 0.854 0.819 0.819 0.878 0.884 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.196 0.154 0.141 0.114 SDEV 0.186 0.210 0.209 0.217 SERR 0.011 0.013 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.854 0.814 0.797 0.755 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 0.981 0.149 0.439 3.126 0.121 0.461 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.136 0.076 0.114 135 283 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.64 1.00 1.08 1.72 9.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.460 0.410 0.341 0.281 0.245 0.224 0.203 0.136 0.168 0.086 PACF 0.460 0.251 0.114 0.047 0.036 0.041 0.032 -0.043 0.058 -0.061 95% C.L. 0.098 0.117 0.130 0.138 0.143 0.147 0.151 0.153 0.154 0.156 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.280 0.309 0.218 0.124 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.354 0.259 0.180 0.146 0.166 0.150 0.124 0.075 0.152 0.061 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.354 2 0.300 0.153 3 0.291 0.136 0.057 4 0.289 0.130 0.043 0.045 5 0.285 0.126 0.032 0.020 0.086 6 0.281 0.125 0.031 0.014 0.072 0.050 7 0.280 0.123 0.030 0.013 0.069 0.044 0.022 8 0.280 0.124 0.032 0.013 0.070 0.047 0.027 -0.020 9 0.282 0.121 0.027 0.006 0.068 0.043 0.014 -0.050 0.107 10 0.287 0.119 0.027 0.008 0.071 0.044 0.015 -0.044 0.120 -0.049 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3113.03 3059.01 3051.16 3051.82 3052.98 3051.88 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3052.81 3054.62 3056.46 3053.68 3054.70 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.300 0.153 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.58 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 117.07 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.300 0.243 0.119 0.073 0.040 0.023 0.013 0.007 0.004 0.0024 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 683011 2 0.218 0.358 0.168 2 683012 2 0.102 0.284 0.075 3 683021 2 0.431 0.523 0.172 4 683022 2 0.250 0.248 0.325 5 683031 2 0.226 0.308 0.250 6 683032 2 0.227 0.338 0.193 7 683041 2 0.289 0.551 -0.026 8 683042 2 0.122 0.361 -0.047 9 683051 2 0.195 0.320 0.201 10 683052 2 0.227 0.360 0.178 11 683061 2 0.431 0.447 0.277 12 683062 2 0.191 0.349 0.103 13 683071 2 0.300 0.471 0.109 14 683072 2 0.349 0.349 0.325 15 683081 2 0.361 0.385 0.289 16 683082 2 0.446 0.425 0.314 17 683101 2 0.150 0.346 0.076 18 683102 2 0.130 0.241 0.195 19 683111 2 0.150 0.309 0.138 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 683112 2 0.347 0.453 0.187 21 683121 2 0.105 0.273 0.063 22 683122 2 0.142 0.334 0.085 23 683131 2 0.391 0.496 0.159 24 683132 2 0.484 0.534 0.212 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.261 0.378 0.168 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.090 0.101 MEDIAN 2 0.227 0.354 0.175 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.205 0.136 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.102 0.241 -0.047 LOWER HINGE 2 0.150 0.315 0.094 UPPER HINGE 2 0.355 0.450 0.231 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.484 0.551 0.325 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 1.000 0.256 1.443 9.226 0.261 -0.019 2 683012 1647 1982 336 1.000 0.230 2.837 21.373 0.212 0.004 3 683021 1596 1982 387 1.000 0.202 0.474 3.847 0.226 -0.029 4 683022 1652 1982 331 1.000 0.195 0.532 3.720 0.218 -0.054 5 683031 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.172 0.351 3.421 0.188 -0.016 6 683032 1722 1982 261 1.000 0.165 0.475 3.523 0.189 -0.028 7 683041 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.291 3.679 30.623 0.281 -0.001 8 683042 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.352 5.937 55.500 0.271 -0.004 9 683051 1752 1982 231 1.000 0.215 1.361 7.016 0.210 0.005 10 683052 1740 1982 243 1.000 0.187 1.054 7.078 0.192 -0.017 11 683061 1695 1982 288 1.000 0.204 0.557 3.504 0.222 -0.013 12 683062 1698 1982 285 1.000 0.196 0.882 5.415 0.206 -0.020 13 683071 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.247 1.095 5.991 0.259 -0.012 14 683072 1780 1982 203 1.000 0.243 1.037 4.902 0.254 -0.023 15 683081 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.197 0.701 4.542 0.218 -0.036 16 683082 1631 1982 352 1.000 0.183 0.657 3.817 0.196 -0.019 17 683101 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.205 0.624 4.171 0.214 -0.006 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.169 0.331 2.900 0.182 -0.016 19 683111 1706 1982 277 1.000 0.249 1.878 9.679 0.244 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 1.000 0.222 1.021 8.438 0.228 -0.061 21 683121 1693 1982 290 1.000 0.214 1.886 11.771 0.207 -0.008 22 683122 1697 1982 286 1.000 0.179 1.094 6.012 0.185 -0.005 23 683131 1630 1982 353 1.000 0.175 1.198 7.344 0.181 -0.034 24 683132 1588 1982 395 1.000 0.158 0.004 4.625 0.174 -0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.213 1.296 9.518 0.217 -0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.000 0.044 1.285 11.638 0.031 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 1.000 0.203 1.029 5.703 0.213 -0.016 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.000 0.056 0.857 5.000 0.045 0.019 MINIMUM VALUE 153 1.000 0.158 0.004 2.900 0.174 -0.061 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.181 0.545 3.832 0.191 -0.026 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.237 1.402 8.832 0.236 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.000 0.352 5.937 55.500 0.281 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.182 0.095 0.006 0.823 6.136 -0.019 0.705 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.019 SERIES 683052 AND 683132 243 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.705 SERIES 683041 AND 683042 153 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.123 0.140 0.136 0.122 0.139 0.322 0.275 0.218 0.240 0.207 SDEV 0.000 0.123 0.160 0.190 0.155 0.151 0.162 0.149 0.145 0.152 SERR 0.000 0.071 0.050 0.036 0.021 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.333 0.479 0.553 0.603 0.708 0.897 0.889 0.862 0.880 0.861 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.195 0.185 0.157 0.120 SDEV 0.160 0.190 0.170 0.165 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.853 0.845 0.817 0.766 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 0.990 0.112 0.422 3.252 0.127 -0.058 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.192 0.116 0.035 132 286 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.83 1.00 1.12 1.95 16.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.058 -0.059 0.066 0.022 0.034 0.039 0.022 -0.035 0.088 -0.008 PACF -0.058 -0.063 0.059 0.026 0.045 0.043 0.029 -0.033 0.081 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.006 0.063 0.027 0.044 0.043 0.030 -0.026 0.086 -0.004 PACF 0.004 0.006 0.063 0.027 0.043 0.038 0.027 -0.033 0.079 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 0.004 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 0.990 0.123 0.471 3.194 0.106 0.386 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.385 0.302 0.223 0.160 0.137 0.111 0.091 0.043 0.095 0.031 PACF 0.385 0.180 0.071 0.021 0.033 0.020 0.012 -0.031 0.070 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.098 0.111 0.119 0.123 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.183 0.300 0.162 0.076 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES