RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO554N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO554N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 683 1 Cottonwood Pass DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 683 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3700 3840-10735 1565 1982 683 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 683011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1755 1760 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 683012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1822 1826 / 1907 1912 / 1925 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 683021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1772 1776 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 683022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1689 1689 / 1975 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 683031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1765 1770 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 683041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 683042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 683052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1914 1919 / 1925 1930 / 1956 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 683061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1739 1744 / 1752 1756 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 683062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1930 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 683071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 19 IN 5 GAPS / 1774 1778 / 1809 1809 / 1883 1888 / 1893 1897 / / 1915 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 683081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1613 1617 / 1690 1695 / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 683082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1652 1657 / 1866 1870 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 683102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1875 1879 / 1889 1894 / 1896 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 683111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 683112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1684 1684 / 1772 1776 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 683122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1699 1703 / 1910 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 0.280 0.023 0.638 3.525 0.046 0.725 2 683012 1647 1982 336 0.260 0.016 -0.129 2.946 0.049 0.520 3 683021 1596 1982 387 0.280 0.027 0.763 3.661 0.052 0.732 4 683022 1652 1982 331 0.278 0.018 0.506 3.968 0.049 0.477 5 683031 1755 1982 228 0.313 0.021 1.792 9.613 0.043 0.620 6 683032 1722 1982 261 0.306 0.024 0.219 3.168 0.046 0.697 7 683041 1789 1982 194 0.265 0.028 1.159 4.285 0.053 0.780 8 683042 1830 1982 153 0.235 0.014 0.202 3.160 0.046 0.488 9 683051 1752 1982 231 0.281 0.022 1.029 5.276 0.051 0.537 10 683052 1740 1982 243 0.274 0.020 0.419 3.565 0.055 0.543 11 683061 1695 1982 288 0.295 0.029 0.902 4.592 0.053 0.716 12 683062 1698 1982 285 0.290 0.032 2.089 10.835 0.047 0.829 13 683071 1727 1982 256 0.231 0.015 0.055 2.822 0.055 0.354 14 683072 1780 1982 203 0.235 0.015 0.157 3.215 0.051 0.441 15 683081 1565 1982 418 0.232 0.016 0.606 4.307 0.064 0.299 16 683082 1631 1982 352 0.249 0.023 0.095 3.459 0.068 0.541 17 683101 1725 1982 258 0.284 0.022 0.023 3.506 0.047 0.684 18 683102 1746 1982 237 0.278 0.025 0.760 4.589 0.047 0.751 19 683111 1706 1982 277 0.239 0.022 0.518 3.309 0.050 0.717 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 0.236 0.028 0.641 2.400 0.053 0.823 21 683121 1693 1982 290 0.278 0.025 0.227 2.871 0.060 0.616 22 683122 1697 1982 286 0.252 0.014 0.156 2.633 0.051 0.313 23 683131 1630 1982 353 0.261 0.022 0.277 3.171 0.065 0.516 24 683132 1588 1982 395 0.264 0.026 0.664 5.840 0.062 0.618 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1565 TO 1982 418 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 280 0.266 0.022 0.574 4.197 0.053 0.597 STANDARD DEVIATION 65 0.024 0.005 0.539 2.039 0.007 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 275 0.269 0.022 0.512 3.515 0.051 0.617 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 94 0.036 0.008 0.582 1.284 0.008 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 148 0.231 0.014 -0.129 2.400 0.043 0.299 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 228 0.244 0.017 0.180 3.164 0.047 0.502 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 322 0.280 0.026 0.762 4.448 0.055 0.721 MAXIMUM VALUE 402 0.313 0.032 2.089 10.835 0.068 0.829 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.212 0.212 0.013 -0.254 2.673 -0.391 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.391 SERIES 683041 AND 683082 194 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 683062 AND 683102 237 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.241 0.089 0.202 0.232 0.205 0.298 0.229 0.245 0.298 0.356 SDEV 0.000 0.283 0.307 0.198 0.285 0.229 0.238 0.228 0.213 0.179 SERR 0.000 0.163 0.097 0.037 0.038 0.024 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.531 0.357 0.665 0.767 0.794 0.887 0.862 0.879 0.908 0.929 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.292 0.253 0.240 0.222 SDEV 0.205 0.205 0.196 0.271 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.016 EPS 0.908 0.891 0.884 0.873 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 0.263 0.013 -0.135 4.014 0.041 0.427 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.400 0.412 -0.079 94 324 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.52 1.00 1.09 1.61 9.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 286. 94. 153. 240. 334. 418. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.426 0.305 0.290 0.369 0.313 0.291 0.337 0.270 0.170 0.249 PACF 0.426 0.151 0.144 0.229 0.080 0.082 0.148 -0.003 -0.084 0.099 95% C.L. 0.098 0.114 0.122 0.128 0.138 0.145 0.150 0.157 0.162 0.163 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.293 0.263 0.051 0.022 0.196 0.048 0.045 0.154 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 683011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013733 0.30185732 2 683012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003769 0.26588982 3 683021 1 0.12861815 0.00141928 0.00000000 0.18050392 4 683022 1 0.02641678 0.02790522 0.00000000 0.27535146 5 683031 1 0.10914382 0.09397214 0.00000000 0.30880368 6 683032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016928 0.28360948 7 683041 1 0.07731116 0.00757282 0.00000000 0.22416142 8 683042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014160 0.24494895 9 683051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008400 0.29060945 10 683052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003494 0.26943752 11 683061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006591 0.30398577 12 683062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022955 0.32283357 13 683071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007548 0.22189124 14 683072 1 0.00582747 0.00472267 0.00000000 0.23079312 15 683081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001643 0.22862355 16 683082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002679 0.24372371 17 683101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016636 0.30507135 18 683102 1 0.08779386 0.00652830 0.00000000 0.23311904 19 683111 1 0.05630977 0.04737353 0.00000000 0.23437630 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 683112 1 0.08025365 0.02363260 0.00000000 0.22494596 21 683121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003583 0.28335187 22 683122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005381 0.25998867 23 683131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001972 0.25772694 24 683132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000394 0.26480600 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 1.000 0.064 0.044 3.355 0.045 0.572 2 683012 1647 1982 336 1.000 0.060 0.005 2.772 0.048 0.487 3 683021 1596 1982 387 1.000 0.078 0.312 3.786 0.052 0.583 4 683022 1652 1982 331 1.000 0.060 0.342 3.844 0.048 0.441 5 683031 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.048 0.003 2.781 0.043 0.368 6 683032 1722 1982 261 1.000 0.065 0.248 3.092 0.046 0.577 7 683041 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.081 1.262 5.510 0.052 0.637 8 683042 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.056 -0.006 3.121 0.046 0.425 9 683051 1752 1982 231 1.000 0.075 0.897 5.018 0.051 0.504 10 683052 1740 1982 243 1.000 0.072 0.557 3.671 0.054 0.531 11 683061 1695 1982 288 1.000 0.097 0.732 3.809 0.053 0.717 12 683062 1698 1982 285 1.000 0.084 2.245 11.993 0.047 0.715 13 683071 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.058 -0.026 3.214 0.054 0.263 14 683072 1780 1982 203 1.000 0.063 0.132 3.146 0.051 0.434 15 683081 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.070 0.586 4.283 0.063 0.288 16 683082 1631 1982 352 1.000 0.091 0.062 3.510 0.068 0.530 17 683101 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.065 0.190 3.317 0.047 0.536 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.054 0.467 3.972 0.048 0.290 19 683111 1706 1982 277 1.000 0.083 0.802 4.416 0.049 0.660 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 1.000 0.091 1.068 4.600 0.053 0.688 21 683121 1693 1982 290 1.000 0.088 0.341 2.875 0.059 0.611 22 683122 1697 1982 286 1.000 0.054 0.299 2.870 0.051 0.232 23 683131 1630 1982 353 1.000 0.085 0.265 3.152 0.064 0.510 24 683132 1588 1982 395 1.000 0.098 0.668 5.721 0.062 0.617 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.072 0.479 4.076 0.052 0.509 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.000 0.015 0.518 1.879 0.007 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 1.000 0.071 0.327 3.590 0.051 0.531 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.000 0.024 0.603 1.216 0.007 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 153 1.000 0.048 -0.026 2.772 0.043 0.232 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.060 0.097 3.133 0.047 0.429 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.084 0.700 4.350 0.054 0.614 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.000 0.098 2.245 11.993 0.068 0.717 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 683011 -67 218 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 683012 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 683021 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 683022 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 683031 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 683032 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 683041 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 683042 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 683051 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 683052 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 683061 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 683062 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 683071 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 683072 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 683081 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 683082 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 683101 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 683102 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 683111 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 683112 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 683121 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 683122 -67 191 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 683131 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 683132 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 1.000 0.060 0.408 4.562 0.045 0.509 2 683012 1647 1982 336 1.000 0.053 0.098 2.851 0.048 0.329 3 683021 1596 1982 387 1.000 0.072 0.361 4.027 0.052 0.510 4 683022 1652 1982 331 1.000 0.058 0.402 4.070 0.048 0.390 5 683031 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.047 0.127 2.880 0.043 0.338 6 683032 1722 1982 261 1.000 0.058 0.431 3.343 0.046 0.473 7 683041 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.070 1.123 5.370 0.052 0.524 8 683042 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.054 0.084 3.213 0.046 0.382 9 683051 1752 1982 231 1.000 0.068 0.943 5.560 0.051 0.405 10 683052 1740 1982 243 1.000 0.061 0.456 3.644 0.054 0.341 11 683061 1695 1982 288 0.999 0.070 1.064 5.872 0.053 0.489 12 683062 1698 1982 285 1.000 0.081 2.440 13.170 0.047 0.693 13 683071 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.056 -0.054 3.206 0.054 0.224 14 683072 1780 1982 203 1.000 0.058 0.037 3.130 0.051 0.345 15 683081 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.066 0.570 4.072 0.063 0.218 16 683082 1631 1982 352 1.000 0.085 0.360 3.898 0.068 0.448 17 683101 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.057 0.321 3.603 0.047 0.410 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.052 0.417 3.910 0.048 0.250 19 683111 1706 1982 277 1.000 0.064 0.004 3.190 0.050 0.461 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 1.000 0.066 0.344 3.268 0.053 0.433 21 683121 1693 1982 290 0.999 0.067 0.461 3.306 0.059 0.329 22 683122 1697 1982 286 1.000 0.052 0.276 2.822 0.051 0.181 23 683131 1630 1982 353 1.000 0.072 -0.001 3.267 0.065 0.319 24 683132 1588 1982 395 0.999 0.077 1.109 8.085 0.062 0.396 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.063 0.491 4.347 0.052 0.391 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.000 0.010 0.540 2.236 0.007 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 1.000 0.062 0.381 3.623 0.051 0.393 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.000 0.014 0.403 1.108 0.007 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 153 0.999 0.047 -0.054 2.822 0.043 0.181 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.057 0.112 3.209 0.047 0.329 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.070 0.516 4.317 0.054 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.000 0.085 2.440 13.170 0.068 0.693 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.249 0.114 0.007 -0.042 3.385 -0.098 0.625 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.098 SERIES 683041 AND 683132 194 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.625 SERIES 683051 AND 683052 231 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.173 0.134 0.198 0.241 0.219 0.289 0.247 0.260 0.310 0.371 SDEV 0.000 0.240 0.295 0.193 0.256 0.214 0.213 0.199 0.184 0.170 SERR 0.000 0.139 0.093 0.037 0.035 0.022 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.426 0.467 0.659 0.776 0.808 0.882 0.873 0.887 0.913 0.933 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.302 0.223 0.244 0.241 SDEV 0.194 0.187 0.188 0.194 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.912 0.873 0.886 0.884 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 1.001 0.043 0.459 3.594 0.042 0.256 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.172 0.124 -0.072 119 299 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.77 1.00 1.11 1.87 1411.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.255 0.137 0.114 0.208 0.088 0.060 0.132 0.086 -0.013 0.059 PACF 0.255 0.077 0.067 0.168 -0.011 0.007 0.099 -0.003 -0.069 0.060 95% C.L. 0.098 0.104 0.106 0.107 0.111 0.111 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.114 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.075 0.236 0.077 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 0.120 0.050 0.118 0.061 0.014 0.111 0.022 -0.050 0.056 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.123 2 0.109 0.106 3 0.107 0.104 0.024 4 0.105 0.093 0.013 0.100 5 0.101 0.093 0.010 0.097 0.032 6 0.102 0.095 0.011 0.099 0.034 -0.020 7 0.104 0.092 0.001 0.098 0.024 -0.030 0.100 8 0.105 0.091 0.001 0.099 0.024 -0.029 0.101 -0.013 9 0.104 0.100 -0.001 0.101 0.033 -0.028 0.109 -0.004 -0.084 10 0.110 0.100 -0.009 0.103 0.030 -0.035 0.109 -0.011 -0.091 0.068 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2121.55 2117.23 2114.47 2116.22 2113.99 2115.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2117.41 2115.20 2117.13 2116.14 2116.22 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.109 0.106 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.62 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.69 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.109 0.118 0.025 0.015 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 683011 2 0.316 0.384 0.249 2 683012 2 0.136 0.291 0.120 3 683021 2 0.313 0.396 0.225 4 683022 2 0.218 0.295 0.246 5 683031 2 0.148 0.278 0.188 6 683032 2 0.250 0.403 0.158 7 683041 2 0.380 0.341 0.351 8 683042 2 0.164 0.331 0.138 9 683051 2 0.206 0.332 0.192 10 683052 2 0.166 0.268 0.219 11 683061 2 0.325 0.345 0.301 12 683062 2 0.537 0.469 0.324 13 683071 2 0.089 0.186 0.174 14 683072 2 0.188 0.258 0.260 15 683081 2 0.085 0.175 0.198 16 683082 2 0.291 0.306 0.317 17 683101 2 0.252 0.319 0.227 18 683102 2 0.113 0.200 0.208 19 683111 2 0.279 0.365 0.211 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 683112 2 0.236 0.380 0.131 21 683121 2 0.167 0.254 0.245 22 683122 2 0.048 0.167 0.084 23 683131 2 0.148 0.256 0.198 24 683132 2 0.201 0.376 0.095 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.219 0.307 0.211 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.108 0.078 0.070 MEDIAN 2 0.203 0.313 0.209 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.136 0.113 0.082 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.048 0.167 0.084 LOWER HINGE 2 0.148 0.257 0.166 UPPER HINGE 2 0.285 0.370 0.248 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.537 0.469 0.351 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 1.000 0.050 0.168 3.965 0.057 -0.034 2 683012 1647 1982 336 1.000 0.050 0.031 2.875 0.057 -0.016 3 683021 1596 1982 387 1.000 0.060 0.841 5.203 0.065 -0.033 4 683022 1652 1982 331 1.000 0.051 0.383 3.692 0.058 -0.033 5 683031 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.043 0.137 2.757 0.050 0.008 6 683032 1722 1982 261 1.000 0.051 0.551 3.748 0.057 -0.005 7 683041 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.056 0.350 3.428 0.064 -0.055 8 683042 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.049 -0.011 3.073 0.056 -0.002 9 683051 1752 1982 231 1.000 0.061 0.788 6.108 0.063 -0.023 10 683052 1740 1982 243 1.000 0.055 0.259 3.375 0.062 -0.021 11 683061 1695 1982 288 1.000 0.058 1.046 6.896 0.064 -0.046 12 683062 1698 1982 285 1.000 0.055 0.764 5.464 0.062 -0.007 13 683071 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.054 -0.088 3.259 0.061 -0.018 14 683072 1780 1982 203 1.000 0.053 0.015 3.336 0.059 -0.026 15 683081 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.063 0.555 4.054 0.069 -0.004 16 683082 1631 1982 352 1.000 0.072 0.274 3.873 0.080 -0.036 17 683101 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.051 0.715 4.231 0.057 -0.050 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.049 0.427 4.114 0.054 -0.024 19 683111 1706 1982 277 1.000 0.055 -0.003 3.077 0.062 -0.041 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 1.000 0.058 0.186 3.977 0.065 -0.029 21 683121 1693 1982 290 1.000 0.061 0.175 3.501 0.067 -0.009 22 683122 1697 1982 286 1.000 0.051 0.286 2.846 0.056 -0.007 23 683131 1630 1982 353 1.000 0.066 0.107 3.408 0.075 -0.022 24 683132 1588 1982 395 1.000 0.069 0.704 5.041 0.075 -0.036 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.056 0.361 3.971 0.062 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.000 0.007 0.317 1.061 0.007 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 1.000 0.055 0.280 3.720 0.062 -0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.000 0.010 0.508 0.875 0.008 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 153 1.000 0.043 -0.088 2.757 0.050 -0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.051 0.122 3.298 0.057 -0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.061 0.629 4.172 0.065 -0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.000 0.072 1.046 6.896 0.080 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.326 0.080 0.005 0.677 4.902 0.131 0.690 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.131 SERIES 683022 AND 683112 299 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.690 SERIES 683051 AND 683052 231 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.368 0.217 0.193 0.278 0.272 0.319 0.304 0.353 0.401 0.450 SDEV 0.000 0.193 0.255 0.201 0.198 0.145 0.162 0.145 0.149 0.134 SERR 0.000 0.112 0.081 0.038 0.027 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.675 0.611 0.653 0.808 0.849 0.896 0.902 0.924 0.940 0.951 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.368 0.257 0.296 0.303 SDEV 0.154 0.160 0.137 0.123 SERR 0.009 0.010 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.933 0.893 0.910 0.913 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.040 0.294 3.066 0.045 -0.031 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.190 0.115 -0.072 109 309 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.63 1.00 1.07 1.69 7.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.031 -0.146 0.019 0.155 0.009 -0.001 0.102 0.034 -0.083 0.080 PACF -0.031 -0.147 0.009 0.137 0.025 0.042 0.108 0.027 -0.062 0.077 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.104 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.023 -0.036 -0.148 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.020 0.017 0.141 0.034 0.032 0.098 0.048 -0.060 0.079 PACF 0.002 0.020 0.017 0.141 0.034 0.028 0.094 0.028 -0.074 0.068 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.002 0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.041 0.368 3.344 0.042 0.133 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.133 0.160 0.069 0.170 0.073 0.073 0.110 0.068 -0.027 0.081 PACF 0.133 0.144 0.033 0.141 0.027 0.019 0.080 0.013 -0.079 0.068 95% C.L. 0.098 0.100 0.102 0.102 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.108 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.039 0.114 0.145 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES