RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO554T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO554T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 683 1 Cottonwood Pass DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 683 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3700 3840-10735 1565 1982 683 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 683022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1689 1689 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 683062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1930 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 683071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1809 1809 / 1915 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 5.311 0.535 -0.406 3.060 0.093 0.344 2 683012 1647 1982 336 4.898 0.534 -0.183 3.024 0.084 0.505 3 683021 1596 1982 387 5.583 0.602 -0.425 2.838 0.077 0.574 4 683022 1652 1982 331 5.666 0.440 -0.291 2.957 0.069 0.392 5 683031 1755 1982 228 5.610 0.532 -0.324 3.385 0.076 0.492 6 683032 1722 1982 261 5.356 0.459 -0.106 2.714 0.073 0.447 7 683041 1789 1982 194 5.192 0.579 -0.163 2.583 0.085 0.552 8 683042 1830 1982 153 5.140 0.622 -0.617 2.711 0.097 0.550 9 683051 1752 1982 231 6.088 0.505 -0.298 2.943 0.071 0.455 10 683052 1740 1982 243 5.575 0.427 -0.075 2.965 0.073 0.302 11 683061 1695 1982 288 6.066 0.583 -0.524 3.401 0.056 0.734 12 683062 1698 1982 285 5.965 0.560 -0.475 2.864 0.095 0.171 13 683071 1727 1982 256 5.118 0.449 -0.341 2.957 0.090 0.204 14 683072 1780 1982 203 5.054 0.481 -0.342 2.993 0.090 0.289 15 683081 1565 1982 418 5.213 0.512 -0.371 3.329 0.092 0.293 16 683082 1631 1982 352 5.341 0.571 -0.227 2.694 0.065 0.688 17 683101 1725 1982 258 5.979 0.551 -0.799 3.630 0.076 0.437 18 683102 1746 1982 237 5.941 0.508 -0.396 3.113 0.075 0.346 19 683111 1706 1982 277 4.871 0.523 -0.400 3.079 0.119 0.086 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 4.391 0.770 -0.049 2.201 0.106 0.705 21 683121 1693 1982 290 5.213 0.496 -0.044 2.759 0.087 0.375 22 683122 1697 1982 286 4.599 0.625 0.205 2.139 0.100 0.576 23 683131 1630 1982 353 5.248 0.670 -0.130 2.418 0.075 0.741 24 683132 1588 1982 395 4.924 0.582 0.367 3.098 0.079 0.641 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1565 TO 1982 418 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 5.348 0.546 -0.267 2.911 0.084 0.454 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.457 0.078 0.251 0.356 0.014 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 5.280 0.535 -0.311 2.957 0.082 0.451 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.552 0.082 0.286 0.376 0.019 0.251 MINIMUM VALUE 153 4.391 0.427 -0.799 2.139 0.056 0.086 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 5.086 0.500 -0.403 2.713 0.074 0.323 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 5.638 0.582 -0.118 3.089 0.093 0.575 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 6.088 0.770 0.367 3.630 0.119 0.741 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.362 0.188 0.011 -0.488 2.924 -0.165 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.165 SERIES 683061 AND 683122 286 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 683042 AND 683051 153 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.536 0.209 0.326 0.549 0.584 0.656 0.564 0.530 0.536 0.530 SDEV 0.000 0.168 0.270 0.135 0.167 0.101 0.169 0.151 0.176 0.193 SERR 0.000 0.097 0.085 0.026 0.022 0.011 0.014 0.010 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.805 0.600 0.791 0.930 0.955 0.972 0.965 0.962 0.964 0.964 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.447 0.380 0.325 0.443 SDEV 0.225 0.217 0.255 0.254 SERR 0.014 0.013 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.951 0.936 0.920 0.950 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 5.256 0.404 -0.583 3.035 0.069 0.348 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.205 0.114 -0.031 79 339 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.19 1.00 1.04 1.23 7.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 286. 94. 153. 240. 334. 418. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.347 0.326 0.349 0.325 0.286 0.282 0.264 0.325 0.225 0.250 PACF 0.347 0.233 0.218 0.148 0.080 0.075 0.051 0.138 -0.015 0.042 95% C.L. 0.098 0.109 0.118 0.127 0.135 0.141 0.146 0.151 0.157 0.160 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.237 0.165 0.124 0.161 0.123 0.067 0.075 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 683011 1 0.74444574 0.00403642 0.00000000 4.89788055 2 683012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053357 4.98770380 3 683021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067396 5.45183659 4 683022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032228 5.72034931 5 683031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00360298 5.19780970 6 683032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00104054 5.21920681 7 683041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00374966 4.82652140 8 683042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00871510 4.46880627 9 683051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00360970 5.66950035 10 683052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00184754 5.34986687 11 683061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00250949 5.70300388 12 683062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033069 5.91620827 13 683071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054033 5.04270935 14 683072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00130928 5.18773365 15 683081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00071026 5.06376123 16 683082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088231 5.18538094 17 683101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078008 5.87847567 18 683102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103409 5.81745005 19 683111 1 0.52367640 0.00478626 0.00000000 4.58118153 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 683112 1 1.93419456 0.00887901 0.00000000 3.71686625 21 683121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197261 4.92626143 22 683122 1 2.98933506 0.00230918 0.00000000 2.41436505 23 683131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00283914 4.74580002 24 683132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020971 4.96524525 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 1.000 0.097 -0.452 3.022 0.093 0.276 2 683012 1647 1982 336 1.000 0.109 -0.097 3.036 0.084 0.503 3 683021 1596 1982 387 1.000 0.107 -0.345 2.850 0.077 0.570 4 683022 1652 1982 331 1.000 0.077 -0.287 3.009 0.069 0.391 5 683031 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.086 -0.370 4.198 0.076 0.355 6 683032 1722 1982 261 1.000 0.084 -0.246 2.674 0.073 0.426 7 683041 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.105 -0.026 3.057 0.085 0.497 8 683042 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.098 -0.079 2.769 0.096 0.259 9 683051 1752 1982 231 1.000 0.074 -0.205 3.087 0.071 0.297 10 683052 1740 1982 243 1.000 0.073 -0.233 2.933 0.073 0.235 11 683061 1695 1982 288 1.000 0.091 -0.328 4.227 0.056 0.694 12 683062 1698 1982 285 1.000 0.094 -0.449 2.901 0.095 0.168 13 683071 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.088 -0.345 2.965 0.089 0.214 14 683072 1780 1982 203 1.000 0.094 -0.310 2.897 0.090 0.273 15 683081 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.097 -0.459 3.332 0.092 0.269 16 683082 1631 1982 352 1.000 0.106 -0.174 2.610 0.065 0.681 17 683101 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.092 -0.830 3.833 0.076 0.430 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.084 -0.470 3.299 0.075 0.332 19 683111 1706 1982 277 1.000 0.105 -0.467 2.978 0.119 0.048 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 1.000 0.141 0.302 2.970 0.106 0.542 21 683121 1693 1982 290 1.000 0.089 -0.143 2.752 0.087 0.282 22 683122 1697 1982 286 1.000 0.102 0.268 3.144 0.100 0.242 23 683131 1630 1982 353 1.000 0.115 -0.124 2.654 0.075 0.663 24 683132 1588 1982 395 1.000 0.118 0.359 3.080 0.079 0.639 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.097 -0.230 3.095 0.083 0.387 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.000 0.015 0.270 0.427 0.014 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 1.000 0.095 -0.267 2.994 0.082 0.344 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.000 0.019 0.299 0.242 0.019 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 153 1.000 0.073 -0.830 2.610 0.056 0.048 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.087 -0.410 2.873 0.074 0.264 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.105 -0.110 3.115 0.093 0.522 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.000 0.141 0.359 4.227 0.119 0.694 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 683011 -67 218 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 683012 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 683021 -67 259 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 683022 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 683031 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 683032 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 683041 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 683042 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 683051 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 683052 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 683061 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 683062 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 683071 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 683072 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 683081 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 683082 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 683101 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 683102 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 683111 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 683112 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 683121 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 683122 -67 191 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 683131 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 683132 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 1.000 0.092 -0.494 3.160 0.093 0.207 2 683012 1647 1982 336 0.999 0.094 -0.246 3.416 0.084 0.329 3 683021 1596 1982 387 0.999 0.094 -0.399 2.940 0.077 0.428 4 683022 1652 1982 331 1.000 0.074 -0.374 3.021 0.069 0.324 5 683031 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.079 -0.443 3.843 0.076 0.250 6 683032 1722 1982 261 1.000 0.071 -0.062 2.617 0.073 0.183 7 683041 1789 1982 194 0.999 0.098 -0.047 2.963 0.085 0.426 8 683042 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.093 0.079 3.106 0.096 0.161 9 683051 1752 1982 231 1.000 0.069 -0.242 2.998 0.071 0.209 10 683052 1740 1982 243 1.000 0.070 -0.074 2.996 0.073 0.160 11 683061 1695 1982 288 0.999 0.061 -0.862 5.429 0.056 0.300 12 683062 1698 1982 285 1.000 0.092 -0.433 2.816 0.094 0.136 13 683071 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.084 -0.294 2.926 0.089 0.146 14 683072 1780 1982 203 1.000 0.091 -0.366 3.115 0.089 0.223 15 683081 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.092 -0.506 3.395 0.092 0.185 16 683082 1631 1982 352 0.999 0.093 -0.131 2.824 0.065 0.591 17 683101 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.072 -0.659 4.185 0.076 0.054 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.078 -0.724 3.721 0.075 0.220 19 683111 1706 1982 277 1.000 0.104 -0.479 3.009 0.119 0.027 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 0.998 0.112 0.312 2.922 0.106 0.290 21 683121 1693 1982 290 1.000 0.079 -0.222 2.886 0.087 0.097 22 683122 1697 1982 286 1.000 0.092 0.183 3.137 0.100 0.080 23 683131 1630 1982 353 1.000 0.100 -0.249 3.179 0.075 0.559 24 683132 1588 1982 395 1.000 0.105 0.424 3.642 0.079 0.545 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.087 -0.263 3.260 0.083 0.256 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.000 0.013 0.313 0.590 0.014 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 1.000 0.092 -0.271 3.063 0.082 0.214 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.000 0.018 0.393 0.473 0.019 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 153 0.998 0.061 -0.862 2.617 0.056 0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 0.999 0.076 -0.461 2.933 0.074 0.153 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.094 -0.068 3.406 0.093 0.327 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.000 0.112 0.424 5.429 0.119 0.591 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.463 0.125 0.008 -0.622 3.504 0.043 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.043 SERIES 683032 AND 683082 261 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 683071 AND 683072 203 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.532 0.227 0.262 0.505 0.628 0.658 0.578 0.549 0.557 0.552 SDEV 0.000 0.153 0.240 0.175 0.130 0.093 0.153 0.142 0.151 0.172 SERR 0.000 0.088 0.076 0.033 0.017 0.010 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.802 0.625 0.735 0.918 0.962 0.973 0.966 0.965 0.967 0.967 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.470 0.398 0.339 0.477 SDEV 0.206 0.201 0.243 0.231 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.955 0.941 0.925 0.956 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 0.998 0.065 -0.373 3.244 0.070 0.078 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.121 0.061 0.003 93 325 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.28 1.00 1.05 1.33 5.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.078 0.097 0.101 0.091 0.022 0.012 0.009 0.088 -0.050 -0.009 PACF 0.078 0.091 0.088 0.071 -0.004 -0.012 -0.008 0.082 -0.063 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.027 0.056 0.079 0.084 0.071 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.009 0.039 0.079 0.087 0.007 -0.015 0.013 0.132 -0.061 -0.003 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.009 2 -0.008 0.039 3 -0.012 0.039 0.080 4 -0.019 0.036 0.081 0.088 5 -0.019 0.036 0.081 0.088 0.003 6 -0.019 0.038 0.083 0.089 0.003 -0.028 7 -0.019 0.038 0.084 0.089 0.003 -0.028 -0.002 8 -0.019 0.042 0.083 0.078 -0.008 -0.033 0.000 0.127 9 -0.011 0.042 0.081 0.077 -0.004 -0.028 0.003 0.126 -0.056 10 -0.012 0.043 0.081 0.077 -0.004 -0.027 0.004 0.127 -0.056 -0.013 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2625.67 2627.63 2629.01 2628.31 2627.06 2629.06 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2630.74 2632.73 2627.90 2628.60 2630.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 683011 0 0.043 2 683012 0 0.109 3 683021 0 0.184 4 683022 0 0.107 5 683031 0 0.064 6 683032 0 0.034 7 683041 0 0.182 8 683042 0 0.027 9 683051 0 0.044 10 683052 0 0.026 11 683061 0 0.091 12 683062 0 0.019 13 683071 0 0.022 14 683072 0 0.050 15 683081 0 0.034 16 683082 0 0.351 17 683101 0 0.003 18 683102 0 0.049 19 683111 0 0.001 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 683112 0 0.086 21 683121 0 0.010 22 683122 0 0.006 23 683131 0 0.314 24 683132 0 0.303 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.090 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.103 MEDIAN 0 0.046 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.001 LOWER HINGE 0 0.024 UPPER HINGE 0 0.108 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.351 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 683011 1657 1982 326 1.000 0.092 -0.494 3.160 0.093 0.207 2 683012 1647 1982 336 1.000 0.094 -0.246 3.416 0.084 0.329 3 683021 1596 1982 387 1.000 0.094 -0.399 2.940 0.077 0.428 4 683022 1652 1982 331 1.000 0.074 -0.374 3.021 0.069 0.324 5 683031 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.079 -0.443 3.843 0.076 0.250 6 683032 1722 1982 261 1.000 0.071 -0.062 2.617 0.073 0.183 7 683041 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.098 -0.047 2.963 0.085 0.426 8 683042 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.093 0.079 3.106 0.096 0.161 9 683051 1752 1982 231 1.000 0.069 -0.242 2.998 0.071 0.209 10 683052 1740 1982 243 1.000 0.070 -0.074 2.996 0.073 0.160 11 683061 1695 1982 288 1.000 0.061 -0.862 5.429 0.056 0.300 12 683062 1698 1982 285 1.000 0.092 -0.433 2.816 0.094 0.136 13 683071 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.084 -0.294 2.926 0.089 0.146 14 683072 1780 1982 203 1.000 0.091 -0.366 3.115 0.089 0.223 15 683081 1565 1982 418 1.000 0.092 -0.506 3.395 0.092 0.185 16 683082 1631 1982 352 1.000 0.093 -0.131 2.824 0.065 0.591 17 683101 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.072 -0.659 4.185 0.076 0.054 18 683102 1746 1982 237 1.000 0.078 -0.724 3.721 0.075 0.220 19 683111 1706 1982 277 1.000 0.104 -0.479 3.010 0.119 0.027 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 683112 1684 1982 299 1.000 0.112 0.312 2.922 0.105 0.290 21 683121 1693 1982 290 1.000 0.079 -0.222 2.886 0.087 0.097 22 683122 1697 1982 286 1.000 0.092 0.183 3.137 0.100 0.080 23 683131 1630 1982 353 1.000 0.100 -0.249 3.179 0.075 0.559 24 683132 1588 1982 395 1.000 0.105 0.424 3.642 0.079 0.545 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.087 -0.263 3.260 0.083 0.256 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.000 0.013 0.313 0.590 0.014 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 285 1.000 0.092 -0.271 3.063 0.081 0.214 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 93 0.000 0.018 0.393 0.473 0.019 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 153 1.000 0.061 -0.862 2.617 0.056 0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 240 1.000 0.076 -0.461 2.933 0.074 0.153 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.094 -0.068 3.406 0.093 0.327 MAXIMUM VALUE 418 1.000 0.112 0.424 5.429 0.119 0.591 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.463 0.125 0.008 -0.622 3.504 0.043 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.043 SERIES 683032 AND 683082 261 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 683071 AND 683072 203 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 59.50 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 1. 3. 10. 28. 55. 91. 153. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.532 0.227 0.262 0.505 0.628 0.658 0.578 0.549 0.557 0.552 SDEV 0.000 0.153 0.240 0.175 0.130 0.093 0.153 0.142 0.151 0.172 SERR 0.000 0.088 0.076 0.033 0.017 0.010 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.802 0.625 0.735 0.918 0.962 0.973 0.966 0.965 0.967 0.967 NSS 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.9 15.0 18.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.8 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 276. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.470 0.398 0.339 0.477 SDEV 0.206 0.201 0.243 0.231 SERR 0.012 0.012 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.955 0.941 0.925 0.956 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 0.998 0.065 -0.374 3.245 0.069 0.078 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.121 0.061 0.003 93 325 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.27 1.00 1.05 1.32 7.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.078 0.097 0.101 0.091 0.023 0.012 0.009 0.088 -0.050 -0.009 PACF 0.078 0.091 0.088 0.071 -0.004 -0.012 -0.008 0.082 -0.063 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.027 0.056 0.079 0.084 0.072 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1982 418 0.998 0.065 -0.374 3.245 0.069 0.078 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.078 0.097 0.101 0.091 0.023 0.012 0.009 0.088 -0.050 -0.009 PACF 0.078 0.091 0.088 0.071 -0.004 -0.012 -0.008 0.082 -0.063 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.027 0.056 0.079 0.084 0.072 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES