RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO563L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO563L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Wheelman CO, (EK ab 811) WIDTH_LATE PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 1950 40 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 670821 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1955 1955 / 1966 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 670841 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 670842 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 670861 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1863 1863 / 1871 1871 / 1887 1887 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 670862 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 670891 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670892 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670901 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1880 1880 / 1910 1910 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 670902 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670912 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1925 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 0.147 0.095 2.058 8.318 0.493 0.397 2 670831 1849 1982 134 0.136 0.077 1.673 6.213 0.451 0.180 3 670832 1900 1982 83 0.186 0.098 1.318 4.511 0.502 0.178 4 670841 1866 1982 117 0.128 0.075 2.908 15.850 0.429 0.355 5 670842 1874 1982 109 0.143 0.075 1.839 7.096 0.419 0.246 6 670851 1919 1982 64 0.237 0.158 1.187 3.411 0.548 0.339 7 670852 1909 1982 74 0.131 0.090 2.863 12.938 0.485 0.130 8 670861 1821 1982 162 0.189 0.161 2.825 12.510 0.419 0.689 9 670862 1813 1982 170 0.188 0.100 1.309 4.684 0.376 0.520 10 670871 1885 1982 98 0.144 0.075 1.427 5.065 0.491 0.209 11 670872 1877 1982 106 0.142 0.091 2.585 14.304 0.555 0.237 12 670891 1868 1982 115 0.091 0.063 3.858 22.348 0.498 0.089 13 670892 1883 1982 100 0.122 0.075 1.658 5.311 0.414 0.520 14 670901 1835 1982 148 0.108 0.097 4.198 25.583 0.475 0.478 15 670902 1876 1982 107 0.084 0.055 3.771 21.488 0.454 0.207 16 670911 1860 1982 123 0.165 0.120 3.054 14.776 0.452 0.319 17 670912 1889 1982 94 0.121 0.057 1.336 4.295 0.406 0.230 18 670921 1854 1982 129 0.136 0.060 1.897 9.739 0.379 0.118 19 670922 1889 1982 94 0.145 0.083 1.945 7.588 0.539 -0.058 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 19 FROM 1813 TO 1982 170 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 0.144 0.090 2.300 10.844 0.462 0.283 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.037 0.030 0.944 6.735 0.054 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.142 0.083 1.945 8.318 0.454 0.237 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.031 0.023 1.343 9.352 0.077 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 64 0.084 0.055 1.187 3.411 0.376 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 93 0.125 0.075 1.543 5.188 0.419 0.179 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 0.156 0.098 2.886 14.540 0.495 0.376 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 0.237 0.161 4.198 25.583 0.555 0.689 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.378 0.170 0.013 0.167 2.477 0.052 0.802 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.052 SERIES 670861 AND 670902 107 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.802 SERIES 670841 AND 670842 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.183 0.222 0.366 0.472 SDEV 0.299 0.207 0.169 0.172 SERR 0.173 0.039 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.652 0.804 0.912 0.944 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.169 0.108 2.052 7.236 0.352 0.720 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.643 0.476 -0.013 60 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.83 2.41 1.00 1.23 3.64 323.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 107. 32. 64. 94. 126. 170. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.716 0.624 0.615 0.585 0.588 0.533 0.505 0.429 0.423 0.410 PACF 0.716 0.229 0.231 0.112 0.154 -0.014 0.031 -0.123 0.045 0.000 95% C.L. 0.153 0.218 0.257 0.290 0.316 0.341 0.360 0.376 0.388 0.398 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.605 0.394 0.070 0.177 0.054 0.199 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670821 1 0.16651110 0.02885912 0.00000000 0.08304250 2 670831 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010033 0.14326450 3 670832 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091621 0.22462533 4 670841 1 0.20869035 0.11659670 0.00000000 0.11295368 5 670842 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084762 0.18916790 6 670851 1 0.42826343 0.14629444 0.00000000 0.19455872 7 670852 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00155024 0.18948539 8 670861 1 0.47989443 0.05765181 0.00000000 0.13754974 9 670862 1 0.24585898 0.06856529 0.00000000 0.16690862 10 670871 1 0.12872541 0.05553493 0.00000000 0.12087395 11 670872 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100652 0.19554716 12 670891 1 0.08403012 0.07141845 0.00000000 0.08099832 13 670892 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054831 0.14943203 14 670901 1 0.46907207 0.11796876 0.00000000 0.08175439 15 670902 1 0.23274060 0.20869400 0.00000000 0.07416447 16 670911 1 0.26633152 0.03947793 0.00000000 0.11160641 17 670912 1 0.05661935 0.01547369 0.00000000 0.09113898 18 670921 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021685 0.12210634 19 670922 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009226 0.14895676 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 1.000 0.562 1.288 4.069 0.496 0.214 2 670831 1849 1982 134 1.000 0.562 1.692 6.409 0.448 0.180 3 670832 1900 1982 83 0.999 0.500 1.136 3.956 0.496 0.129 4 670841 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.479 1.509 6.499 0.425 0.322 5 670842 1874 1982 109 0.999 0.454 1.207 4.263 0.419 0.161 6 670851 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.596 1.144 3.256 0.538 0.163 7 670852 1909 1982 74 1.006 0.548 1.485 5.602 0.480 0.094 8 670861 1821 1982 162 1.002 0.601 1.590 5.482 0.413 0.503 9 670862 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.501 1.661 6.651 0.374 0.418 10 670871 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.457 0.821 3.481 0.487 0.101 11 670872 1877 1982 106 0.999 0.598 2.724 15.602 0.550 0.152 12 670891 1868 1982 115 0.999 0.570 2.477 13.246 0.493 0.070 13 670892 1883 1982 100 0.997 0.564 1.334 4.422 0.414 0.464 14 670901 1835 1982 148 1.001 0.525 2.040 8.768 0.475 0.059 15 670902 1876 1982 107 1.000 0.494 1.999 9.136 0.454 0.107 16 670911 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.528 1.694 5.564 0.449 0.119 17 670912 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.475 1.693 5.917 0.409 0.191 18 670921 1854 1982 129 1.000 0.435 1.886 9.866 0.376 0.113 19 670922 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.571 1.937 7.501 0.533 -0.058 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 1.000 0.527 1.648 6.826 0.459 0.184 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.002 0.052 0.468 3.293 0.052 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.528 1.661 5.917 0.454 0.152 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.001 0.081 0.600 3.792 0.077 0.098 MINIMUM VALUE 64 0.997 0.435 0.821 3.256 0.374 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 0.999 0.486 1.311 4.343 0.417 0.104 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.567 1.912 8.134 0.494 0.202 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.006 0.601 2.724 15.602 0.550 0.503 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670821 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670831 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670832 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670841 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670842 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670851 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670852 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670861 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670862 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670871 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670872 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670891 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670892 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670901 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670902 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670911 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670912 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670921 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670922 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 0.996 0.551 1.332 4.309 0.496 0.177 2 670831 1849 1982 134 0.995 0.526 1.623 6.117 0.448 0.109 3 670832 1900 1982 83 0.995 0.466 0.913 3.317 0.496 0.078 4 670841 1866 1982 117 0.996 0.440 1.139 5.010 0.425 0.233 5 670842 1874 1982 109 0.997 0.442 1.280 4.880 0.419 0.093 6 670851 1919 1982 64 0.995 0.582 1.135 3.235 0.539 0.141 7 670852 1909 1982 74 0.996 0.507 1.148 3.963 0.478 0.039 8 670861 1821 1982 162 0.986 0.556 1.678 6.172 0.413 0.424 9 670862 1813 1982 170 0.997 0.465 1.278 4.793 0.374 0.383 10 670871 1885 1982 98 0.999 0.452 0.865 3.814 0.487 0.082 11 670872 1877 1982 106 0.996 0.565 2.274 12.202 0.550 0.102 12 670891 1868 1982 115 0.997 0.558 2.570 14.160 0.493 0.035 13 670892 1883 1982 100 0.981 0.429 0.760 2.875 0.414 0.236 14 670901 1835 1982 148 0.997 0.494 1.586 6.251 0.475 0.032 15 670902 1876 1982 107 0.997 0.439 1.160 4.673 0.454 0.018 16 670911 1860 1982 123 0.999 0.526 1.736 5.788 0.449 0.112 17 670912 1889 1982 94 0.991 0.422 1.496 5.279 0.410 0.086 18 670921 1854 1982 129 0.998 0.412 1.440 6.962 0.377 0.074 19 670922 1889 1982 94 0.998 0.538 1.592 5.891 0.533 -0.076 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 0.995 0.493 1.421 5.773 0.459 0.125 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.004 0.056 0.452 2.863 0.052 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 0.996 0.494 1.332 5.010 0.454 0.093 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.002 0.103 0.464 2.008 0.077 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 64 0.981 0.412 0.760 2.875 0.374 -0.076 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 0.995 0.441 1.144 4.136 0.417 0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 0.997 0.544 1.607 6.144 0.494 0.159 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 0.999 0.582 2.570 14.160 0.550 0.424 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.410 0.144 0.011 -0.070 2.620 0.098 0.775 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.098 SERIES 670862 AND 670901 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.775 SERIES 670841 AND 670842 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.263 0.276 0.387 0.465 SDEV 0.261 0.195 0.163 0.154 SERR 0.151 0.037 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.750 0.846 0.919 0.943 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.963 0.334 0.907 3.687 0.336 0.201 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.576 0.384 -0.046 52 118 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 0.88 1.00 1.11 1.99 11.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.200 0.067 0.142 0.071 -0.003 -0.021 -0.081 -0.176 -0.089 -0.073 PACF 0.200 0.028 0.129 0.019 -0.031 -0.036 -0.086 -0.151 -0.020 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.153 0.159 0.160 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.169 0.170 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.041 0.201 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.038 -0.011 0.096 -0.037 -0.172 -0.109 -0.023 -0.154 -0.056 -0.032 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.038 2 0.039 -0.012 3 0.040 -0.016 0.097 4 0.045 -0.017 0.099 -0.046 5 0.037 0.000 0.096 -0.038 -0.168 6 0.018 -0.004 0.107 -0.038 -0.164 -0.110 7 0.017 -0.006 0.106 -0.037 -0.164 -0.110 -0.012 8 0.015 -0.021 0.085 -0.042 -0.150 -0.111 -0.010 -0.130 9 0.009 -0.021 0.080 -0.049 -0.152 -0.107 -0.011 -0.129 -0.046 10 0.006 -0.030 0.079 -0.056 -0.163 -0.111 -0.005 -0.130 -0.045 -0.072 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1390.99 1392.73 1394.71 1395.10 1396.74 1393.87 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1393.78 1395.76 1394.88 1396.53 1397.65 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670821 0 0.032 2 670831 0 0.012 3 670832 0 0.006 4 670841 0 0.055 5 670842 0 0.010 6 670851 0 0.020 7 670852 0 0.002 8 670861 0 0.180 9 670862 0 0.148 10 670871 0 0.007 11 670872 0 0.010 12 670891 0 0.001 13 670892 0 0.056 14 670901 0 0.001 15 670902 0 0.000 16 670911 0 0.013 17 670912 0 0.007 18 670921 0 0.006 19 670922 0 0.006 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.050 MEDIAN 0 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.006 UPPER HINGE 0 0.026 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.180 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 1.000 0.551 1.332 4.309 0.494 0.177 2 670831 1849 1982 134 1.000 0.526 1.623 6.117 0.446 0.109 3 670832 1900 1982 83 1.000 0.466 0.913 3.317 0.493 0.078 4 670841 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.440 1.139 5.010 0.423 0.233 5 670842 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.442 1.280 4.880 0.418 0.093 6 670851 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.582 1.135 3.235 0.536 0.141 7 670852 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.507 1.148 3.963 0.476 0.039 8 670861 1821 1982 162 1.000 0.556 1.678 6.172 0.406 0.424 9 670862 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.465 1.278 4.793 0.372 0.383 10 670871 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.452 0.865 3.814 0.486 0.082 11 670872 1877 1982 106 1.000 0.565 2.274 12.202 0.548 0.102 12 670891 1868 1982 115 1.000 0.558 2.570 14.160 0.491 0.035 13 670892 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.429 0.760 2.875 0.406 0.236 14 670901 1835 1982 148 1.000 0.494 1.586 6.251 0.473 0.032 15 670902 1876 1982 107 1.000 0.439 1.160 4.673 0.452 0.018 16 670911 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.526 1.736 5.788 0.448 0.112 17 670912 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.422 1.496 5.279 0.406 0.086 18 670921 1854 1982 129 1.000 0.412 1.440 6.962 0.376 0.074 19 670922 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.538 1.592 5.891 0.532 -0.076 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 1.000 0.493 1.421 5.773 0.457 0.125 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.000 0.056 0.452 2.863 0.053 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.494 1.332 5.010 0.452 0.093 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.000 0.103 0.464 2.008 0.080 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.412 0.760 2.875 0.372 -0.076 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.441 1.144 4.136 0.412 0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.544 1.607 6.144 0.492 0.159 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.582 2.570 14.160 0.548 0.424 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.410 0.144 0.011 -0.070 2.620 0.098 0.775 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.098 SERIES 670862 AND 670901 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.775 SERIES 670841 AND 670842 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.263 0.276 0.387 0.465 SDEV 0.261 0.195 0.163 0.154 SERR 0.151 0.037 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.750 0.846 0.919 0.943 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.968 0.334 0.911 3.706 0.334 0.203 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.580 0.384 -0.049 51 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 0.85 1.00 1.12 1.97 12.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.202 0.069 0.143 0.072 -0.002 -0.021 -0.079 -0.175 -0.089 -0.074 PACF 0.202 0.029 0.129 0.020 -0.031 -0.037 -0.085 -0.151 -0.021 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.153 0.160 0.160 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.169 0.170 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.042 0.202 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.968 0.334 0.911 3.706 0.334 0.203 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.202 0.069 0.143 0.072 -0.002 -0.021 -0.079 -0.175 -0.089 -0.074 PACF 0.202 0.029 0.129 0.020 -0.031 -0.037 -0.085 -0.151 -0.021 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.153 0.160 0.160 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.169 0.170 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.042 0.202 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.13 MINUTES