RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO563W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO563W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Wheelman CO, (EK ab 811) WIDTH_RING PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 1950 40 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 670821 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1955 1955 / 1966 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 670841 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 670842 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 670861 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1863 1863 / 1871 1871 / 1887 1887 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 670862 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 670891 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670892 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670901 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1880 1880 / 1910 1910 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 670902 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670912 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1925 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 0.627 0.354 0.867 2.954 0.435 0.547 2 670831 1849 1982 134 0.747 0.370 0.274 2.229 0.385 0.619 3 670832 1900 1982 83 1.038 0.407 0.300 3.272 0.315 0.504 4 670841 1866 1982 117 0.664 0.308 0.641 3.440 0.395 0.477 5 670842 1874 1982 109 0.751 0.312 0.393 3.389 0.388 0.425 6 670851 1919 1982 64 1.291 0.462 0.693 3.233 0.317 0.402 7 670852 1909 1982 74 1.026 0.444 1.710 7.388 0.303 0.428 8 670861 1821 1982 162 0.836 0.519 1.612 5.666 0.371 0.744 9 670862 1813 1982 170 0.934 0.461 0.804 3.316 0.348 0.644 10 670871 1885 1982 98 0.782 0.368 0.814 3.735 0.379 0.524 11 670872 1877 1982 106 0.791 0.340 0.710 4.451 0.340 0.510 12 670891 1868 1982 115 0.591 0.269 1.063 4.722 0.415 0.309 13 670892 1883 1982 100 0.710 0.266 0.796 3.914 0.342 0.341 14 670901 1835 1982 148 0.730 0.609 2.074 7.045 0.425 0.714 15 670902 1876 1982 107 0.630 0.284 1.407 6.497 0.368 0.476 16 670911 1860 1982 123 0.923 0.378 0.968 4.166 0.346 0.369 17 670912 1889 1982 94 0.473 0.202 1.182 5.262 0.394 0.367 18 670921 1854 1982 129 0.694 0.316 0.806 4.180 0.359 0.516 19 670922 1889 1982 94 0.887 0.370 0.307 2.290 0.353 0.441 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 19 FROM 1813 TO 1982 170 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 0.796 0.370 0.917 4.271 0.367 0.492 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.190 0.097 0.497 1.495 0.037 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.751 0.368 0.806 3.914 0.368 0.477 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.226 0.115 0.456 1.698 0.046 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 64 0.473 0.202 0.274 2.229 0.303 0.309 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 93 0.679 0.310 0.667 3.294 0.344 0.413 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 0.905 0.425 1.123 4.992 0.391 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 1.291 0.609 2.074 7.388 0.435 0.744 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.509 0.153 0.012 -0.281 4.010 -0.121 0.876 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.121 SERIES 670901 AND 670921 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.876 SERIES 670841 AND 670842 109 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.392 0.361 0.463 0.589 SDEV 0.241 0.186 0.194 0.124 SERR 0.139 0.035 0.019 0.009 EPS 0.844 0.891 0.940 0.965 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.904 0.453 1.346 4.696 0.303 0.737 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.198 0.064 0.215 43 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.65 1.00 1.04 1.70 14.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 107. 32. 64. 94. 126. 170. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.733 0.656 0.613 0.538 0.551 0.514 0.452 0.350 0.345 0.343 PACF 0.733 0.256 0.157 0.004 0.167 0.028 -0.049 -0.185 0.085 0.079 95% C.L. 0.153 0.221 0.263 0.295 0.317 0.339 0.356 0.370 0.377 0.385 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.596 0.478 0.186 0.183 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670821 1 0.67254776 0.04953495 0.00000000 0.46210569 2 670831 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00205840 0.88603187 3 670832 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00865308 1.40150166 4 670841 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00478662 0.94165188 5 670842 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00491886 1.01653445 6 670851 1 1.17181385 0.10827629 0.00000000 1.13082683 7 670852 1 1.25115967 0.05929303 0.00000000 0.75260818 8 670861 1 1.56215572 0.05303545 0.00000000 0.65717137 9 670862 1 1.08498383 0.03388909 0.00000000 0.75023013 10 670871 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00767088 1.16205549 11 670872 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00511731 1.06500268 12 670891 1 0.47732791 0.03967584 0.00000000 0.49093634 13 670892 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00282255 0.84954190 14 670901 1 2.11689138 0.03679440 0.00000000 0.34289080 15 670902 1 0.68024617 0.03320856 0.00000000 0.44294637 16 670911 1 0.79663944 0.03808582 0.00000000 0.75787723 17 670912 1 0.09599265 0.07705096 0.00000000 0.45606574 18 670921 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00135471 0.60574251 19 670922 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094484 0.93168837 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 1.000 0.520 0.888 3.285 0.447 0.508 2 670831 1849 1982 134 0.999 0.483 0.301 2.517 0.382 0.606 3 670832 1900 1982 83 0.997 0.341 0.056 2.402 0.311 0.415 4 670841 1866 1982 117 0.999 0.383 -0.022 2.844 0.403 0.313 5 670842 1874 1982 109 0.997 0.360 -0.117 2.756 0.396 0.243 6 670851 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.297 0.182 3.016 0.312 0.179 7 670852 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.282 -0.126 2.604 0.297 0.172 8 670861 1821 1982 162 1.000 0.474 0.790 3.402 0.381 0.522 9 670862 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.413 0.446 3.159 0.345 0.456 10 670871 1885 1982 98 1.003 0.381 0.395 3.375 0.374 0.314 11 670872 1877 1982 106 0.999 0.389 1.118 6.594 0.336 0.410 12 670891 1868 1982 115 1.000 0.391 0.419 2.837 0.413 0.157 13 670892 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.355 0.384 3.072 0.352 0.311 14 670901 1835 1982 148 0.997 0.376 0.208 2.835 0.426 0.181 15 670902 1876 1982 107 1.000 0.350 0.323 2.844 0.372 0.169 16 670911 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.352 0.618 3.539 0.343 0.194 17 670912 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.439 1.248 5.702 0.407 0.349 18 670921 1854 1982 129 0.999 0.452 0.856 4.475 0.356 0.500 19 670922 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.416 0.319 2.302 0.350 0.439 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 0.999 0.392 0.436 3.345 0.369 0.339 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.001 0.061 0.395 1.111 0.041 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.383 0.384 3.016 0.372 0.314 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.001 0.074 0.509 0.593 0.055 0.260 MINIMUM VALUE 64 0.997 0.282 -0.126 2.302 0.297 0.157 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 0.999 0.354 0.195 2.795 0.344 0.188 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.428 0.704 3.388 0.399 0.448 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.003 0.520 1.248 6.594 0.447 0.606 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670821 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670831 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670832 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670841 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670842 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670851 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670852 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670861 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670862 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670871 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670872 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670891 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670892 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670901 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670902 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670911 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670912 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670921 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670922 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 0.990 0.480 0.688 2.858 0.447 0.456 2 670831 1849 1982 134 0.989 0.433 0.245 2.561 0.382 0.525 3 670832 1900 1982 83 0.997 0.331 0.180 2.680 0.311 0.381 4 670841 1866 1982 117 0.998 0.376 -0.054 2.772 0.403 0.277 5 670842 1874 1982 109 0.999 0.358 0.058 2.932 0.396 0.242 6 670851 1919 1982 64 0.999 0.289 0.097 3.035 0.311 0.155 7 670852 1909 1982 74 0.999 0.274 -0.157 2.804 0.297 0.131 8 670861 1821 1982 162 0.994 0.447 0.550 2.822 0.381 0.492 9 670862 1813 1982 170 0.995 0.389 0.275 2.834 0.345 0.419 10 670871 1885 1982 98 0.999 0.369 0.202 3.027 0.374 0.280 11 670872 1877 1982 106 0.998 0.378 0.987 6.243 0.336 0.394 12 670891 1868 1982 115 0.999 0.388 0.398 2.784 0.413 0.150 13 670892 1883 1982 100 0.994 0.315 0.053 2.760 0.351 0.171 14 670901 1835 1982 148 0.999 0.372 0.170 2.710 0.426 0.148 15 670902 1876 1982 107 0.998 0.340 0.342 3.077 0.372 0.119 16 670911 1860 1982 123 0.999 0.348 0.680 3.667 0.343 0.178 17 670912 1889 1982 94 0.997 0.407 0.758 4.055 0.407 0.263 18 670921 1854 1982 129 0.995 0.389 0.305 3.519 0.355 0.407 19 670922 1889 1982 94 0.995 0.379 0.304 2.524 0.348 0.357 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 0.996 0.372 0.320 3.140 0.368 0.292 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.003 0.051 0.296 0.845 0.041 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 0.998 0.376 0.275 2.834 0.372 0.277 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.004 0.044 0.340 0.290 0.055 0.237 MINIMUM VALUE 64 0.989 0.274 -0.157 2.524 0.297 0.119 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 0.995 0.344 0.134 2.766 0.344 0.163 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 0.999 0.389 0.474 3.056 0.399 0.400 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 0.999 0.480 0.987 6.243 0.447 0.525 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.530 0.128 0.010 -0.314 3.363 0.074 0.843 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.074 SERIES 670821 AND 670831 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.843 SERIES 670871 AND 670872 98 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.527 0.441 0.483 0.574 SDEV 0.122 0.154 0.160 0.115 SERR 0.071 0.029 0.016 0.009 EPS 0.903 0.919 0.944 0.962 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.982 0.305 -0.041 2.941 0.295 0.385 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.359 0.145 0.092 38 132 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.42 1.00 1.07 1.49 3.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.383 0.221 0.260 0.101 0.018 0.023 -0.058 -0.179 -0.188 -0.217 PACF 0.383 0.088 0.176 -0.072 -0.051 -0.009 -0.073 -0.153 -0.091 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.153 0.174 0.181 0.189 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.195 0.199 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.155 0.384 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.211 0.062 0.208 0.018 -0.137 -0.113 -0.094 -0.090 -0.154 -0.174 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.211 2 0.207 0.019 3 0.204 -0.023 0.200 4 0.218 -0.025 0.215 -0.071 5 0.207 0.007 0.211 -0.039 -0.147 6 0.192 0.003 0.234 -0.038 -0.125 -0.107 7 0.187 -0.003 0.232 -0.028 -0.125 -0.099 -0.043 8 0.187 -0.003 0.232 -0.028 -0.125 -0.099 -0.044 0.001 9 0.187 -0.007 0.222 -0.041 -0.128 -0.075 -0.044 0.020 -0.101 10 0.174 -0.004 0.216 -0.051 -0.145 -0.081 -0.014 0.019 -0.076 -0.134 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1339.95 1334.19 1336.13 1331.16 1332.31 1330.59 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1330.63 1332.31 1334.31 1334.55 1333.49 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.211 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.46 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.67 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.211 0.045 0.009 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670821 1 0.221 0.458 2 670831 1 0.285 0.527 3 670832 1 0.178 0.386 4 670841 1 0.079 0.278 5 670842 1 0.069 0.246 6 670851 1 0.039 0.156 7 670852 1 0.030 0.136 8 670861 1 0.261 0.494 9 670862 1 0.218 0.421 10 670871 1 0.093 0.284 11 670872 1 0.159 0.398 12 670891 1 0.024 0.152 13 670892 1 0.030 0.171 14 670901 1 0.028 0.148 15 670902 1 0.020 0.121 16 670911 1 0.038 0.180 17 670912 1 0.070 0.265 18 670921 1 0.172 0.409 19 670922 1 0.134 0.364 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.113 0.294 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.088 0.134 MEDIAN 1 0.079 0.278 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.141 0.240 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.020 0.121 LOWER HINGE 1 0.034 0.164 UPPER HINGE 1 0.175 0.403 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.285 0.527 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 1.000 0.427 0.519 3.450 0.516 -0.053 2 670831 1849 1982 134 1.000 0.367 0.076 2.811 0.444 -0.052 3 670832 1900 1982 83 1.000 0.305 0.117 2.628 0.369 -0.064 4 670841 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.361 0.039 2.690 0.428 -0.013 5 670842 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.347 0.038 2.861 0.439 -0.020 6 670851 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.285 0.017 3.176 0.333 0.019 7 670852 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.271 -0.172 2.896 0.307 0.012 8 670861 1821 1982 162 1.000 0.389 0.609 3.349 0.442 -0.073 9 670862 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.353 0.372 3.063 0.397 -0.093 10 670871 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.354 0.203 2.829 0.394 0.037 11 670872 1877 1982 106 1.000 0.346 0.600 4.862 0.391 0.014 12 670891 1868 1982 115 1.000 0.384 0.383 2.728 0.435 0.001 13 670892 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.311 0.054 2.844 0.374 -0.006 14 670901 1835 1982 148 1.000 0.368 0.173 2.797 0.450 -0.011 15 670902 1876 1982 107 1.000 0.338 0.276 3.022 0.393 -0.010 16 670911 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.343 0.717 3.562 0.367 0.015 17 670912 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.393 0.627 3.293 0.453 0.003 18 670921 1854 1982 129 1.000 0.355 0.695 3.699 0.396 -0.033 19 670922 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.352 0.099 2.510 0.416 -0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 1.000 0.350 0.287 3.109 0.408 -0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.000 0.038 0.272 0.537 0.048 0.035 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.353 0.203 2.896 0.397 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.000 0.027 0.494 0.517 0.058 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.271 -0.172 2.510 0.307 -0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.340 0.065 2.804 0.382 -0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.368 0.559 3.321 0.440 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.427 0.717 4.862 0.516 0.037 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.565 0.100 0.008 0.003 3.109 0.278 0.840 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.278 SERIES 670901 AND 670921 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.840 SERIES 670891 AND 670892 100 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.568 0.504 0.565 0.611 SDEV 0.076 0.121 0.130 0.107 SERR 0.044 0.023 0.013 0.008 EPS 0.917 0.936 0.959 0.968 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.993 0.272 -0.013 2.742 0.324 -0.030 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.270 0.107 0.104 33 137 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.24 1.00 1.05 1.29 3.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.030 0.025 0.198 0.000 -0.029 0.018 -0.016 -0.136 -0.089 -0.116 PACF -0.030 0.024 0.200 0.013 -0.041 -0.025 -0.017 -0.128 -0.102 -0.118 95% C.L. 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.162 0.164 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.030 0.199 0.006 -0.028 0.017 -0.019 -0.139 -0.096 -0.122 PACF 0.001 0.030 0.199 0.006 -0.042 -0.025 -0.020 -0.130 -0.101 -0.117 95% C.L. 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.163 0.164 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.993 0.280 -0.051 2.810 0.293 0.226 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.224 0.115 0.212 0.046 -0.018 -0.001 -0.050 -0.165 -0.155 -0.170 PACF 0.224 0.068 0.182 -0.044 -0.050 -0.027 -0.044 -0.143 -0.094 -0.102 95% C.L. 0.153 0.161 0.163 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.174 0.177 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.055 0.226 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES