RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO563X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO563X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Wheelman CO, (EK ab 811) DENSITY_MAXIMUM PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 1950 40 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 670821 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1955 1955 / 1966 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 670841 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 670842 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 670861 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1863 1863 / 1871 1871 / 1887 1887 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 670862 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 670891 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670892 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670901 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1880 1880 / 1910 1910 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 670902 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670912 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1925 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 0.694 0.122 0.104 2.206 0.162 0.411 2 670831 1849 1982 134 0.754 0.083 -0.576 2.859 0.112 0.227 3 670832 1900 1982 83 0.765 0.088 -1.162 4.441 0.122 0.138 4 670841 1866 1982 117 0.756 0.119 -0.207 2.194 0.128 0.454 5 670842 1874 1982 109 0.769 0.102 -0.349 2.228 0.143 0.164 6 670851 1919 1982 64 0.806 0.103 -1.107 4.204 0.138 0.150 7 670852 1909 1982 74 0.739 0.111 -0.375 2.286 0.157 0.233 8 670861 1821 1982 162 0.819 0.103 -0.577 2.511 0.111 0.451 9 670862 1813 1982 170 0.809 0.101 -0.769 2.982 0.093 0.529 10 670871 1885 1982 98 0.687 0.098 0.038 3.260 0.145 0.252 11 670872 1877 1982 106 0.707 0.094 -0.065 2.397 0.148 0.158 12 670891 1868 1982 115 0.650 0.103 0.049 2.173 0.158 0.248 13 670892 1883 1982 100 0.636 0.100 0.230 2.436 0.156 0.238 14 670901 1835 1982 148 0.669 0.135 0.141 2.134 0.172 0.444 15 670902 1876 1982 107 0.650 0.106 -0.039 2.252 0.163 0.301 16 670911 1860 1982 123 0.796 0.111 -0.728 3.525 0.116 0.484 17 670912 1889 1982 94 0.715 0.117 -0.070 2.601 0.139 0.476 18 670921 1854 1982 129 0.751 0.093 -0.203 2.189 0.120 0.285 19 670922 1889 1982 94 0.742 0.103 -0.463 2.623 0.152 0.057 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 19 FROM 1813 TO 1982 170 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 0.732 0.105 -0.323 2.711 0.139 0.300 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.057 0.012 0.411 0.689 0.022 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.742 0.103 -0.207 2.436 0.143 0.252 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.076 0.012 0.576 0.703 0.036 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 64 0.636 0.083 -1.162 2.134 0.093 0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 93 0.690 0.099 -0.577 2.217 0.121 0.195 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 0.767 0.111 0.000 2.920 0.157 0.448 MAXIMUM VALUE 169 0.819 0.135 0.230 4.441 0.172 0.529 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.474 0.141 0.011 -0.107 2.951 0.107 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.107 SERIES 670851 AND 670862 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 670871 AND 670872 98 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.312 0.321 0.541 0.509 SDEV 0.326 0.168 0.175 0.143 SERR 0.188 0.032 0.017 0.011 EPS 0.792 0.872 0.955 0.952 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 0.759 0.086 -0.277 2.520 0.096 0.478 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.409 -0.183 0.224 21 149 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.52 1.01 1.03 1.54 9.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 107. 32. 64. 94. 126. 170. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.475 0.463 0.458 0.377 0.280 0.284 0.225 0.221 0.236 0.214 PACF 0.475 0.306 0.228 0.065 -0.061 0.027 -0.011 0.048 0.082 0.036 95% C.L. 0.153 0.185 0.210 0.233 0.247 0.254 0.261 0.266 0.270 0.275 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.356 0.245 0.232 0.258 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670821 1 0.24831505 0.01389179 0.00000000 0.54382885 2 670831 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025793 0.73639548 3 670832 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094769 0.80498385 4 670841 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00206632 0.87670583 5 670842 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041947 0.79040855 6 670851 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00147482 0.75800598 7 670852 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099682 0.70167345 8 670861 1 0.16347504 0.09291692 0.00000000 0.80705166 9 670862 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039236 0.84296882 10 670871 1 0.22571015 0.02714890 0.00000000 0.60940939 11 670872 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00125465 0.77382213 12 670891 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00114576 0.71656334 13 670892 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087497 0.67821580 14 670901 1 0.46009138 0.00819039 0.00000000 0.40124133 15 670902 1 0.24981257 0.01247996 0.00000000 0.51152277 16 670911 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113522 0.86591232 17 670912 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00163877 0.79138309 18 670921 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020181 0.76435804 19 670922 1 0.05439435 0.04700978 0.00000000 0.72982484 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 1.000 0.165 0.025 2.471 0.160 0.320 2 670831 1849 1982 134 1.000 0.109 -0.588 2.952 0.111 0.218 3 670832 1900 1982 83 1.000 0.113 -0.720 3.794 0.121 0.076 4 670841 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.129 -0.052 2.467 0.128 0.181 5 670842 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.132 -0.374 2.236 0.141 0.151 6 670851 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.124 -1.106 4.443 0.135 0.084 7 670852 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.149 -0.229 2.209 0.155 0.203 8 670861 1821 1982 162 1.000 0.123 -0.508 2.640 0.111 0.400 9 670862 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.123 -0.597 2.744 0.092 0.510 10 670871 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.117 -0.277 2.855 0.144 -0.110 11 670872 1877 1982 106 1.000 0.122 0.054 2.830 0.147 0.015 12 670891 1868 1982 115 1.000 0.147 0.081 2.183 0.157 0.142 13 670892 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.154 0.141 2.285 0.153 0.231 14 670901 1835 1982 148 1.000 0.152 0.259 2.709 0.170 0.009 15 670902 1876 1982 107 1.000 0.145 0.077 2.085 0.162 0.095 16 670911 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.133 -0.473 3.194 0.115 0.425 17 670912 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.154 0.114 2.456 0.140 0.377 18 670921 1854 1982 129 1.000 0.124 -0.172 2.199 0.119 0.274 19 670922 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.139 -0.321 2.619 0.150 0.040 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 1.000 0.134 -0.246 2.704 0.137 0.192 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.000 0.016 0.357 0.591 0.021 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.132 -0.229 2.619 0.141 0.181 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.000 0.026 0.556 0.582 0.034 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.109 -1.106 2.085 0.092 -0.110 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.123 -0.491 2.260 0.120 0.080 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.148 0.065 2.842 0.154 0.297 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.165 0.259 4.443 0.170 0.510 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670821 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670831 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670832 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670841 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670842 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670851 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670852 -67 49 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670861 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670862 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670871 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670872 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670891 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670892 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670901 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670902 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670911 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670912 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670921 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670922 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 0.999 0.159 0.014 2.589 0.160 0.274 2 670831 1849 1982 134 1.000 0.105 -0.470 2.990 0.111 0.149 3 670832 1900 1982 83 1.000 0.107 -0.600 4.002 0.121 -0.038 4 670841 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.125 0.051 2.817 0.128 0.121 5 670842 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.126 -0.365 2.368 0.141 0.048 6 670851 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.120 -1.065 4.432 0.135 0.010 7 670852 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.145 -0.197 2.284 0.155 0.159 8 670861 1821 1982 162 1.000 0.120 -0.525 2.565 0.110 0.370 9 670862 1813 1982 170 0.999 0.105 -0.552 2.822 0.092 0.330 10 670871 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.117 -0.279 2.888 0.144 -0.118 11 670872 1877 1982 106 1.000 0.121 0.060 2.777 0.147 -0.022 12 670891 1868 1982 115 1.000 0.145 0.085 2.178 0.157 0.116 13 670892 1883 1982 100 0.999 0.146 -0.015 2.204 0.153 0.160 14 670901 1835 1982 148 1.000 0.149 0.244 2.699 0.170 -0.026 15 670902 1876 1982 107 0.999 0.139 0.082 2.144 0.162 0.011 16 670911 1860 1982 123 0.999 0.128 -0.329 2.783 0.115 0.382 17 670912 1889 1982 94 0.999 0.147 0.074 2.590 0.140 0.322 18 670921 1854 1982 129 1.000 0.121 -0.203 2.212 0.119 0.240 19 670922 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.134 -0.243 2.676 0.150 -0.047 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 1.000 0.129 -0.223 2.738 0.137 0.128 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.000 0.016 0.325 0.588 0.021 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.126 -0.203 2.676 0.141 0.121 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.000 0.025 0.472 0.494 0.034 0.263 MINIMUM VALUE 64 0.999 0.105 -1.065 2.144 0.092 -0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 0.999 0.120 -0.417 2.326 0.120 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.145 0.055 2.819 0.154 0.257 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.159 0.244 4.432 0.170 0.382 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.493 0.123 0.009 0.101 3.063 0.175 0.837 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.175 SERIES 670821 AND 670912 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.837 SERIES 670871 AND 670872 98 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.405 0.337 0.504 0.528 SDEV 0.247 0.161 0.154 0.132 SERR 0.142 0.031 0.015 0.010 EPS 0.851 0.880 0.948 0.955 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 1.001 0.090 -0.376 2.769 0.096 0.142 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.112 -0.051 0.133 33 137 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.61 1.00 1.06 1.67 8.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.141 0.159 0.189 0.054 -0.087 -0.050 -0.142 -0.113 -0.078 -0.077 PACF 0.141 0.142 0.156 -0.007 -0.149 -0.068 -0.116 -0.035 0.001 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.153 0.156 0.160 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.170 0.172 0.173 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.064 0.099 0.123 0.159 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.066 0.082 0.143 0.013 -0.194 -0.093 -0.127 -0.119 -0.048 -0.023 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.066 2 0.061 0.078 3 0.050 0.070 0.134 4 0.052 0.071 0.135 -0.009 5 0.050 0.101 0.150 0.002 -0.222 6 0.027 0.101 0.165 0.012 -0.217 -0.100 7 0.018 0.081 0.167 0.028 -0.207 -0.097 -0.092 8 0.015 0.077 0.159 0.029 -0.201 -0.094 -0.092 -0.037 9 0.015 0.078 0.160 0.031 -0.202 -0.096 -0.093 -0.037 0.011 10 0.015 0.078 0.159 0.030 -0.204 -0.095 -0.090 -0.036 0.012 -0.014 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 972.87 974.13 975.09 973.99 975.98 969.41 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 969.72 970.26 972.03 974.00 975.97 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.050 0.101 0.150 0.002 -0.222 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.61 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.24 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.050 0.103 0.160 0.028 -0.189 0.007 -0.037 -0.065 -0.013 0.0291 -0.011 0.008 0.018 0.003 -0.003 0.005 -0.001 -0.004 0.000 0.0001 -0.002 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670821 5 0.234 0.160 0.332 0.091 -0.105 -0.274 2 670831 5 0.120 0.093 0.202 0.183 0.028 -0.195 3 670832 5 0.100 -0.044 0.112 0.128 -0.014 -0.287 4 670841 5 0.057 0.140 -0.050 0.017 0.073 -0.188 5 670842 5 0.021 0.038 0.102 0.058 0.002 -0.004 6 670851 5 0.151 -0.042 -0.192 -0.066 -0.161 -0.312 7 670852 5 0.082 0.143 0.099 -0.035 -0.010 -0.168 8 670861 5 0.171 0.297 0.180 0.048 -0.024 -0.032 9 670862 5 0.167 0.254 0.216 0.061 0.002 -0.133 10 670871 5 0.054 -0.139 -0.140 -0.021 -0.082 -0.073 11 670872 5 0.030 -0.017 0.107 0.011 0.020 -0.113 12 670891 5 0.140 0.144 -0.069 0.148 0.186 -0.182 13 670892 5 0.156 0.222 -0.159 0.195 0.048 -0.178 14 670901 5 0.052 -0.037 0.093 0.102 0.073 -0.037 15 670902 5 0.039 0.022 0.089 -0.048 0.059 -0.069 16 670911 5 0.237 0.341 -0.003 0.177 0.101 -0.071 17 670912 5 0.153 0.323 -0.011 0.153 -0.089 -0.064 18 670921 5 0.140 0.205 0.099 0.224 -0.100 -0.064 19 670922 5 0.113 -0.062 -0.008 0.056 -0.264 -0.129 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.117 0.107 0.052 0.078 -0.014 -0.136 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.064 0.144 0.137 0.088 0.103 0.090 MEDIAN 5 0.120 0.140 0.093 0.061 0.002 -0.129 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.099 0.241 0.140 0.137 0.139 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.021 -0.139 -0.192 -0.066 -0.264 -0.312 LOWER HINGE 5 0.055 -0.027 -0.031 0.014 -0.086 -0.185 UPPER HINGE 5 0.155 0.214 0.110 0.151 0.053 -0.067 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.237 0.341 0.332 0.224 0.186 -0.004 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670821 1899 1982 84 1.000 0.139 0.048 3.013 0.163 -0.001 2 670831 1849 1982 134 1.000 0.098 -0.420 2.922 0.115 -0.019 3 670832 1900 1982 83 1.000 0.102 -0.382 4.048 0.115 -0.005 4 670841 1866 1982 117 1.000 0.121 -0.032 2.882 0.133 0.004 5 670842 1874 1982 109 1.000 0.125 -0.377 2.347 0.143 0.000 6 670851 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.111 -1.009 4.255 0.129 0.016 7 670852 1909 1982 74 1.000 0.140 -0.187 2.633 0.166 -0.021 8 670861 1821 1982 162 1.000 0.109 -0.558 2.864 0.126 -0.001 9 670862 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.096 -0.300 3.194 0.103 0.002 10 670871 1885 1982 98 1.000 0.114 -0.236 3.034 0.133 -0.008 11 670872 1877 1982 106 1.000 0.119 0.062 2.931 0.143 -0.007 12 670891 1868 1982 115 1.000 0.136 0.027 2.432 0.158 -0.032 13 670892 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.136 -0.015 2.404 0.157 -0.030 14 670901 1835 1982 148 1.000 0.147 0.203 2.585 0.166 -0.006 15 670902 1876 1982 107 1.000 0.137 0.023 2.357 0.159 -0.005 16 670911 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.115 -0.327 2.877 0.133 -0.013 17 670912 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.136 0.004 2.914 0.158 -0.008 18 670921 1854 1982 129 1.000 0.114 -0.157 2.554 0.128 -0.010 19 670922 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.127 -0.167 2.872 0.145 -0.021 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 111 1.000 0.122 -0.200 2.901 0.141 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 28 0.000 0.015 0.281 0.507 0.019 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.121 -0.167 2.877 0.143 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.000 0.024 0.365 0.402 0.030 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 64 1.000 0.096 -1.009 2.347 0.103 -0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 94 1.000 0.112 -0.352 2.570 0.128 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.136 0.014 2.972 0.158 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 170 1.000 0.147 0.203 4.255 0.166 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 171 0.474 0.129 0.010 0.070 2.847 0.114 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.114 SERIES 670821 AND 670912 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 670871 AND 670872 98 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 28. 105. 171. RBAR 0.450 0.371 0.493 0.499 SDEV 0.160 0.135 0.156 0.146 SERR 0.092 0.026 0.015 0.011 EPS 0.873 0.895 0.946 0.950 NSS 8.4 14.4 18.1 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 1.001 0.083 -0.425 2.946 0.099 -0.060 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.027 -0.012 0.090 34 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.38 1.01 1.06 1.45 16.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.059 0.010 0.071 0.010 0.001 -0.027 -0.124 -0.070 0.008 -0.009 PACF -0.059 0.007 0.073 0.019 0.001 -0.032 -0.131 -0.087 0.004 0.015 95% C.L. 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.012 0.005 -0.039 -0.134 -0.069 0.013 0.004 PACF 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.012 0.005 -0.039 -0.134 -0.071 0.013 0.007 95% C.L. 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.156 0.157 0.157 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.002 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.012 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.087 -0.329 2.821 0.097 0.083 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.082 0.110 0.150 0.004 -0.193 -0.039 -0.168 -0.116 -0.053 -0.018 PACF 0.082 0.104 0.135 -0.028 -0.228 -0.035 -0.124 -0.032 -0.002 0.005 95% C.L. 0.153 0.154 0.156 0.160 0.160 0.165 0.165 0.169 0.171 0.171 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.17 MINUTES