RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO564E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO564E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Niwot Ridge, (EK ab 011) WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 670 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 4003-10534 1694 1982 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 670071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1868 1868 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 0.432 0.188 0.799 3.951 0.232 0.774 2 670012 1719 1982 264 0.565 0.223 0.428 3.205 0.218 0.775 3 670021 1827 1982 156 0.458 0.232 0.918 3.642 0.251 0.814 4 670022 1850 1982 133 0.653 0.224 0.931 3.586 0.250 0.533 5 670031 1799 1982 184 0.397 0.172 0.315 2.669 0.323 0.682 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.425 0.228 0.515 2.778 0.294 0.874 7 670041 1869 1982 114 0.654 0.191 0.758 4.602 0.194 0.687 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.379 0.180 0.377 2.454 0.251 0.834 9 670051 1802 1982 181 0.529 0.157 0.168 2.655 0.200 0.668 10 670052 1771 1982 212 0.492 0.120 0.328 4.179 0.190 0.527 11 670061 1828 1982 155 0.499 0.205 0.386 2.443 0.243 0.734 12 670062 1817 1982 166 0.519 0.154 0.207 3.124 0.195 0.689 13 670071 1725 1982 258 0.308 0.115 1.662 8.657 0.253 0.639 14 670072 1725 1982 258 0.317 0.150 0.793 3.271 0.244 0.830 15 670081 1755 1982 228 0.311 0.132 1.120 4.920 0.307 0.599 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.373 0.168 1.219 5.812 0.289 0.691 17 670091 1763 1982 220 0.290 0.093 0.714 3.549 0.220 0.618 18 670101 1768 1982 215 0.282 0.124 2.183 10.108 0.240 0.718 19 670102 1829 1982 154 0.231 0.076 0.192 2.518 0.239 0.622 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 0.364 0.156 0.831 2.904 0.179 0.837 21 670112 1715 1982 268 0.413 0.148 0.553 2.778 0.181 0.765 22 670121 1694 1982 289 0.378 0.135 0.196 2.385 0.192 0.792 23 670122 1727 1982 256 0.470 0.167 0.756 4.282 0.195 0.750 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1694 TO 1982 289 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.423 0.163 0.711 3.934 0.234 0.715 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.114 0.043 0.494 1.946 0.041 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 0.413 0.157 0.714 3.271 0.239 0.718 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.155 0.056 0.522 1.507 0.056 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.231 0.076 0.168 2.385 0.179 0.527 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.341 0.134 0.353 2.723 0.195 0.654 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 257 0.495 0.190 0.875 4.231 0.251 0.784 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 0.654 0.232 2.183 10.108 0.323 0.874 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.365 0.205 0.013 -0.285 2.637 -0.225 0.852 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.225 SERIES 670051 AND 670121 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.852 SERIES 670111 AND 670112 268 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.314 0.392 0.478 0.419 0.527 0.386 0.441 0.315 0.348 SDEV 0.262 0.205 0.196 0.202 0.161 0.191 0.225 0.247 0.203 SERR 0.057 0.031 0.021 0.020 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.821 0.892 0.933 0.931 0.960 0.934 0.948 0.914 0.925 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.431 0.117 0.410 2.906 0.148 0.756 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.032 0.016 0.144 69 220 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.35 1.00 1.04 1.39 7.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 220. 92. 114. 166. 258. 289. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.753 0.640 0.606 0.618 0.580 0.550 0.537 0.512 0.508 0.515 PACF 0.753 0.168 0.187 0.205 0.041 0.059 0.064 0.005 0.068 0.080 95% C.L. 0.118 0.172 0.202 0.226 0.248 0.266 0.282 0.296 0.308 0.319 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.619 0.554 0.042 0.064 0.213 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00148460 0.62960291 2 670012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00180743 0.80456072 3 670021 1 0.55086643 0.05753336 0.00000000 0.39839360 4 670022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00109609 0.72667122 5 670031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00150696 0.25788847 6 670032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079683 0.33200717 7 670041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040906 0.63051391 8 670042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00191350 0.22039172 9 670051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00186336 0.69879192 10 670052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009273 0.48210499 11 670061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075450 0.43966484 12 670062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112807 0.61365169 13 670071 1 0.73062348 0.17339034 0.00000000 0.29287761 14 670072 1 0.48347208 0.04384081 0.00000000 0.27500948 15 670081 1 0.30881405 0.08478702 0.00000000 0.29530716 16 670082 1 0.36417964 0.04515238 0.00000000 0.33919600 17 670091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026217 0.26093897 18 670101 1 0.59197950 0.07008942 0.00000000 0.24370508 19 670102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061896 0.18326458 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 1 0.55837047 0.00677951 0.00000000 0.11148288 21 670112 1 0.46606770 0.00836980 0.00000000 0.22782663 22 670121 1 0.27639627 0.02177025 0.00000000 0.33420575 23 670122 1 0.44370359 0.01439407 0.00000000 0.35337517 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 0.998 0.341 0.741 3.619 0.231 0.637 2 670012 1719 1982 264 0.996 0.326 0.949 4.284 0.217 0.671 3 670021 1827 1982 156 0.999 0.475 1.481 6.873 0.250 0.775 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.338 1.030 3.833 0.248 0.516 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.003 0.397 0.205 2.591 0.321 0.555 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.004 0.513 0.241 2.371 0.293 0.844 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.293 0.822 4.781 0.192 0.679 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.008 0.470 1.005 5.079 0.249 0.794 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.240 0.071 2.709 0.199 0.480 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.244 0.290 4.035 0.189 0.520 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.404 0.360 2.391 0.241 0.729 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.285 0.435 3.589 0.194 0.648 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.301 0.215 2.647 0.251 0.497 14 670072 1725 1982 258 0.999 0.411 0.816 3.504 0.243 0.769 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.416 1.452 6.646 0.306 0.561 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.442 1.863 9.554 0.290 0.648 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.315 0.591 3.171 0.219 0.605 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.279 0.299 3.412 0.238 0.452 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.002 0.322 0.710 4.633 0.237 0.561 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.001 0.224 0.232 2.660 0.178 0.507 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.243 0.525 3.074 0.180 0.549 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.335 0.392 2.591 0.192 0.756 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.271 0.187 3.576 0.194 0.613 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.343 0.648 3.984 0.233 0.625 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.002 0.083 0.476 1.726 0.041 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.326 0.525 3.576 0.237 0.613 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.001 0.126 0.620 1.774 0.055 0.169 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.996 0.224 0.071 2.371 0.178 0.452 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.282 0.266 2.685 0.194 0.534 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.408 0.886 4.458 0.249 0.704 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.008 0.513 1.863 9.554 0.321 0.844 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670012 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670021 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670022 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670031 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670032 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670041 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670042 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670051 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670061 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670071 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670072 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670082 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670091 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670101 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670102 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670112 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670121 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 670122 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 0.995 0.317 0.781 3.869 0.231 0.587 2 670012 1719 1982 264 0.998 0.308 0.853 4.164 0.217 0.626 3 670021 1827 1982 156 0.983 0.382 0.848 4.613 0.249 0.667 4 670022 1850 1982 133 0.997 0.293 0.950 4.190 0.248 0.384 5 670031 1799 1982 184 0.990 0.351 0.149 2.908 0.321 0.414 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.964 0.373 0.063 2.779 0.293 0.675 7 670041 1869 1982 114 0.997 0.244 0.000 3.662 0.192 0.543 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.979 0.347 0.670 3.798 0.249 0.633 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.239 0.096 2.743 0.199 0.475 10 670052 1771 1982 212 0.998 0.230 0.064 3.774 0.189 0.465 11 670061 1828 1982 155 0.978 0.269 -0.057 3.081 0.241 0.450 12 670062 1817 1982 166 0.995 0.248 0.351 3.404 0.195 0.516 13 670071 1725 1982 258 0.996 0.270 0.242 2.748 0.251 0.366 14 670072 1725 1982 258 0.993 0.299 0.472 3.790 0.243 0.513 15 670081 1755 1982 228 0.995 0.366 0.977 5.005 0.306 0.481 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.992 0.389 1.311 7.025 0.290 0.567 17 670091 1763 1982 220 0.996 0.264 0.554 3.452 0.219 0.437 18 670101 1768 1982 215 0.998 0.259 0.091 3.310 0.238 0.370 19 670102 1829 1982 154 0.995 0.271 0.459 3.236 0.237 0.369 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 0.997 0.204 0.346 3.016 0.178 0.411 21 670112 1715 1982 268 0.996 0.209 0.175 2.795 0.180 0.427 22 670121 1694 1982 289 0.991 0.258 0.581 3.806 0.192 0.569 23 670122 1727 1982 256 0.995 0.245 0.308 4.047 0.194 0.518 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.992 0.288 0.447 3.705 0.233 0.498 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.009 0.056 0.372 0.947 0.041 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 0.995 0.270 0.351 3.662 0.237 0.481 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.006 0.086 0.602 0.910 0.055 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.964 0.204 -0.057 2.743 0.178 0.366 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.991 0.247 0.123 3.048 0.194 0.421 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 0.997 0.332 0.725 3.958 0.249 0.568 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.389 1.311 7.025 0.321 0.675 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.390 0.121 0.008 0.082 3.086 0.054 0.742 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.054 SERIES 670022 AND 670081 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.742 SERIES 670041 AND 670042 114 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.459 0.375 0.444 0.460 0.474 0.389 0.436 0.326 0.374 SDEV 0.198 0.204 0.174 0.193 0.167 0.191 0.175 0.218 0.168 SERR 0.043 0.030 0.018 0.019 0.013 0.013 0.011 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.895 0.885 0.924 0.941 0.951 0.935 0.947 0.918 0.932 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.985 0.179 -0.001 2.812 0.153 0.454 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.282 0.127 0.068 84 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.39 1.00 1.04 1.43 89.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.453 0.241 0.194 0.214 0.162 0.129 0.080 0.050 0.041 0.114 PACF 0.453 0.045 0.088 0.114 0.014 0.026 -0.020 -0.018 0.000 0.101 95% C.L. 0.118 0.140 0.145 0.149 0.153 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.210 0.456 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.508 0.326 0.251 0.240 0.190 0.141 0.102 0.080 0.087 0.180 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.508 2 0.462 0.091 3 0.455 0.057 0.074 4 0.448 0.052 0.031 0.095 5 0.447 0.051 0.030 0.088 0.015 6 0.447 0.051 0.030 0.088 0.015 0.000 7 0.447 0.052 0.030 0.088 0.016 0.003 -0.007 8 0.447 0.052 0.030 0.088 0.016 0.003 -0.006 -0.002 9 0.447 0.052 0.030 0.088 0.013 0.002 -0.007 -0.016 0.032 10 0.442 0.054 0.031 0.088 0.011 -0.011 -0.012 -0.024 -0.036 0.151 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2367.39 2282.97 2282.55 2282.97 2282.35 2284.29 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2286.29 2288.27 2290.27 2291.98 2287.30 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.462 0.091 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 26.47 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 135.99 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.462 0.305 0.183 0.112 0.069 0.042 0.026 0.016 0.010 0.0059 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670011 2 0.357 0.597 -0.012 2 670012 2 0.419 0.614 0.021 3 670021 2 0.451 0.653 0.026 4 670022 2 0.151 0.396 -0.021 5 670031 2 0.250 0.355 0.145 6 670032 2 0.524 0.535 0.211 7 670041 2 0.301 0.553 -0.008 8 670042 2 0.416 0.548 0.137 9 670051 2 0.243 0.539 -0.130 10 670052 2 0.235 0.400 0.142 11 670061 2 0.205 0.442 0.021 12 670062 2 0.279 0.506 0.020 13 670071 2 0.145 0.360 0.019 14 670072 2 0.284 0.468 0.090 15 670081 2 0.250 0.418 0.133 16 670082 2 0.340 0.489 0.139 17 670091 2 0.235 0.381 0.139 18 670101 2 0.145 0.342 0.078 19 670102 2 0.148 0.331 0.108 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670111 2 0.183 0.364 0.118 21 670112 2 0.233 0.330 0.233 22 670121 2 0.344 0.498 0.130 23 670122 2 0.277 0.499 0.042 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.279 0.462 0.077 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.104 0.097 0.084 MEDIAN 2 0.250 0.468 0.090 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.123 0.164 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.145 0.330 -0.130 LOWER HINGE 2 0.219 0.372 0.021 UPPER HINGE 2 0.342 0.537 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.524 0.653 0.233 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.256 0.504 3.409 0.293 0.004 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.240 0.592 4.146 0.269 -0.003 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.282 0.732 4.996 0.317 -0.004 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.269 0.548 4.334 0.293 0.000 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.316 -0.057 3.063 0.373 -0.040 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.268 -0.348 3.721 0.325 -0.057 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.204 0.268 3.930 0.233 0.003 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.000 0.265 0.484 4.407 0.292 -0.003 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.208 -0.043 2.772 0.231 0.009 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.202 -0.187 4.198 0.221 -0.005 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.240 -0.295 3.669 0.281 0.000 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.212 0.031 3.879 0.242 0.003 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.251 0.330 2.918 0.290 -0.001 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.255 0.407 4.027 0.293 -0.012 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.318 0.710 4.208 0.349 -0.010 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.317 0.899 5.695 0.350 -0.011 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.234 0.501 3.718 0.263 -0.018 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.239 0.031 3.130 0.270 -0.002 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.251 0.239 3.718 0.273 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.185 0.447 3.429 0.207 0.004 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.184 0.198 3.131 0.208 -0.012 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.210 0.350 3.843 0.236 -0.012 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.209 0.313 3.482 0.235 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.244 0.289 3.818 0.276 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.040 0.332 0.671 0.046 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.240 0.330 3.721 0.273 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.057 0.471 0.753 0.057 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.184 -0.348 2.772 0.207 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.209 0.031 3.419 0.236 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.267 0.502 4.172 0.293 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.318 0.899 5.695 0.373 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.405 0.103 0.006 0.298 4.015 0.102 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.102 SERIES 670022 AND 670081 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 670071 AND 670072 258 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.509 0.455 0.450 0.490 0.488 0.529 0.464 0.307 0.337 SDEV 0.172 0.162 0.162 0.144 0.149 0.119 0.133 0.175 0.152 SERR 0.038 0.024 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.008 0.008 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.912 0.915 0.926 0.947 0.953 0.962 0.952 0.911 0.921 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.994 0.158 -0.098 3.093 0.180 -0.030 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.236 0.095 0.063 91 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.81 1.00 1.10 1.91 5.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.030 -0.118 -0.008 0.104 0.036 0.010 0.010 -0.031 -0.053 0.049 PACF -0.030 -0.119 -0.016 0.091 0.041 0.035 0.023 -0.034 -0.061 0.032 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.015 -0.034 -0.119 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 0.010 -0.009 0.095 0.041 0.021 0.008 -0.026 -0.038 0.057 PACF -0.003 0.010 -0.009 0.094 0.042 0.019 0.009 -0.035 -0.047 0.052 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.003 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.996 0.186 0.042 2.930 0.147 0.522 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.520 0.358 0.245 0.231 0.166 0.118 0.078 0.050 0.057 0.124 PACF 0.520 0.120 0.027 0.094 -0.007 -0.011 -0.008 -0.014 0.030 0.113 95% C.L. 0.118 0.146 0.158 0.163 0.167 0.170 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.172 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.286 0.459 0.124 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES