RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO564L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO564L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Niwot Ridge, (EK ab 011) WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 670 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 4003-10534 1694 1982 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 670042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1868 1868 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 670101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1906 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 670102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 0.108 0.044 2.986 18.014 0.260 0.562 2 670012 1719 1982 264 0.119 0.049 1.665 7.139 0.278 0.527 3 670021 1827 1982 156 0.152 0.076 1.757 5.979 0.281 0.644 4 670022 1850 1982 133 0.146 0.061 1.705 8.749 0.346 0.299 5 670031 1799 1982 184 0.130 0.053 1.893 10.450 0.278 0.555 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.161 0.074 1.052 4.911 0.274 0.626 7 670041 1869 1982 114 0.207 0.063 0.753 3.439 0.179 0.707 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.121 0.055 1.845 7.557 0.228 0.748 9 670051 1802 1982 181 0.086 0.039 3.171 23.600 0.268 0.383 10 670052 1771 1982 212 0.096 0.034 1.574 9.865 0.248 0.533 11 670061 1828 1982 155 0.113 0.050 1.219 5.046 0.280 0.529 12 670062 1817 1982 166 0.105 0.039 0.792 4.075 0.263 0.568 13 670071 1725 1982 258 0.096 0.029 1.571 7.787 0.218 0.506 14 670072 1725 1982 258 0.079 0.022 1.067 5.727 0.245 0.296 15 670081 1755 1982 228 0.098 0.034 1.272 5.075 0.239 0.502 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.099 0.050 2.408 13.473 0.267 0.613 17 670091 1763 1982 220 0.102 0.047 2.029 9.452 0.228 0.671 18 670101 1768 1982 215 0.083 0.027 2.179 10.167 0.220 0.521 19 670102 1829 1982 154 0.072 0.016 0.313 2.917 0.231 0.128 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 0.123 0.060 2.286 8.921 0.207 0.792 21 670112 1715 1982 268 0.115 0.060 1.715 6.260 0.208 0.802 22 670121 1694 1982 289 0.082 0.030 1.803 9.824 0.252 0.561 23 670122 1727 1982 256 0.081 0.029 0.942 4.077 0.297 0.389 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1694 TO 1982 289 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 0.112 0.045 1.652 8.370 0.252 0.542 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.031 0.016 0.691 4.810 0.036 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 0.105 0.047 1.705 7.557 0.252 0.555 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 95 0.031 0.025 0.818 4.784 0.048 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.072 0.016 0.313 2.917 0.179 0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 0.091 0.032 1.143 5.060 0.228 0.504 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 257 0.122 0.058 1.961 9.844 0.276 0.635 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 0.207 0.076 3.171 23.600 0.346 0.802 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.216 0.170 0.011 0.130 3.377 -0.267 0.821 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.267 SERIES 670021 AND 670091 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.821 SERIES 670111 AND 670112 268 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.308 0.253 0.248 0.170 0.255 0.255 0.217 0.218 0.174 SDEV 0.235 0.205 0.211 0.182 0.167 0.168 0.209 0.174 0.209 SERR 0.051 0.031 0.022 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.013 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.817 0.813 0.834 0.792 0.880 0.885 0.864 0.865 0.829 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.110 0.037 2.435 11.029 0.172 0.704 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.652 0.474 -0.011 175 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.89 1.56 1.00 1.28 2.84 24.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.12 0.00 0.82 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 220. 92. 114. 166. 258. 289. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.701 0.694 0.609 0.637 0.570 0.561 0.537 0.508 0.512 0.513 PACF 0.701 0.398 0.087 0.209 0.025 0.039 0.064 -0.014 0.079 0.087 95% C.L. 0.118 0.166 0.202 0.226 0.250 0.267 0.283 0.297 0.308 0.320 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.597 0.365 0.286 0.010 0.212 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001849 0.10550343 2 670012 1 0.10740541 0.05389208 0.00000000 0.11144061 3 670021 1 0.28659374 0.06127032 0.00000000 0.12259470 4 670022 1 0.07392006 0.04124602 0.00000000 0.13241993 5 670031 1 0.11353322 0.06715401 0.00000000 0.12128002 6 670032 1 0.17092900 0.02403418 0.00000000 0.13128652 7 670041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042182 0.23100917 8 670042 1 0.23309191 0.07845013 0.00000000 0.10324094 9 670051 1 0.05206930 0.02885645 0.00000000 0.07663641 10 670052 1 0.08318883 0.01194637 0.00000000 0.06640925 11 670061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012185 0.10327021 12 670062 1 0.08925005 0.03108063 0.00000000 0.08758581 13 670071 1 0.14289492 0.17925388 0.00000000 0.09291986 14 670072 1 0.06021623 0.10177592 0.00000000 0.07704631 15 670081 1 0.10853495 0.07313578 0.00000000 0.09184038 16 670082 1 0.17149143 0.03879998 0.00000000 0.08112972 17 670091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015745 0.08414695 18 670101 1 0.11781414 0.07996815 0.00000000 0.07646384 19 670102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010124 0.06424814 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 1 0.22834533 0.02580127 0.00000000 0.09157525 21 670112 1 0.20650403 0.01744230 0.00000000 0.07154407 22 670121 1 0.09503237 0.04344036 0.00000000 0.07473920 23 670122 1 0.06024857 0.01283573 0.00000000 0.06312887 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.412 3.073 19.002 0.259 0.558 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.387 1.791 8.031 0.277 0.519 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.365 2.792 18.410 0.278 0.282 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.407 1.779 9.556 0.344 0.260 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.389 2.659 16.937 0.276 0.517 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.406 1.009 4.122 0.273 0.526 7 670041 1869 1982 114 0.999 0.293 0.729 3.295 0.178 0.691 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.999 0.305 0.735 3.229 0.228 0.558 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.450 4.514 38.297 0.268 0.293 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.272 0.666 5.302 0.247 0.290 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.432 1.138 4.810 0.279 0.518 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.321 0.830 5.876 0.263 0.403 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.267 1.001 5.732 0.216 0.392 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.253 0.519 3.436 0.244 0.195 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.313 1.404 6.261 0.238 0.376 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.382 1.975 9.448 0.269 0.392 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.003 0.485 3.074 18.222 0.227 0.648 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.236 1.112 6.433 0.220 0.247 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.210 0.157 2.670 0.227 0.054 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.229 0.765 5.248 0.207 0.325 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.254 0.725 4.159 0.208 0.413 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.303 1.177 6.189 0.252 0.376 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.314 0.918 4.482 0.296 0.182 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.334 1.502 9.093 0.251 0.392 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.001 0.078 1.064 8.225 0.036 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.314 1.112 5.876 0.252 0.392 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.128 1.133 5.182 0.048 0.232 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.999 0.210 0.157 2.670 0.178 0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.269 0.750 4.320 0.227 0.286 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.397 1.883 9.502 0.275 0.518 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.003 0.485 4.514 38.297 0.344 0.691 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670012 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670021 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670022 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670031 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670032 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670041 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670042 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670051 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670061 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670071 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670072 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670082 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670091 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670101 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670102 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670112 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670121 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 670122 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 0.998 0.405 3.117 19.314 0.259 0.547 2 670012 1719 1982 264 0.998 0.361 1.796 9.255 0.277 0.469 3 670021 1827 1982 156 0.998 0.342 2.399 14.536 0.278 0.210 4 670022 1850 1982 133 0.997 0.398 2.190 12.262 0.344 0.196 5 670031 1799 1982 184 0.997 0.348 2.065 13.443 0.276 0.439 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.993 0.372 0.901 3.959 0.273 0.469 7 670041 1869 1982 114 0.997 0.241 0.390 3.493 0.178 0.576 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.996 0.269 0.679 3.049 0.228 0.414 9 670051 1802 1982 181 0.996 0.419 5.187 47.539 0.269 0.192 10 670052 1771 1982 212 0.999 0.266 0.774 5.900 0.247 0.247 11 670061 1828 1982 155 0.980 0.320 1.415 5.986 0.280 0.262 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.320 0.874 6.044 0.263 0.402 13 670071 1725 1982 258 0.998 0.250 1.129 7.118 0.216 0.313 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.247 0.448 3.509 0.244 0.156 15 670081 1755 1982 228 0.997 0.290 1.197 5.580 0.238 0.314 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.997 0.342 1.653 8.040 0.270 0.307 17 670091 1763 1982 220 0.996 0.293 1.925 9.494 0.227 0.283 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.231 1.103 6.437 0.220 0.221 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.201 0.150 2.945 0.227 -0.026 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 0.998 0.213 0.796 5.232 0.207 0.215 21 670112 1715 1982 268 0.999 0.238 0.651 4.092 0.208 0.340 22 670121 1694 1982 289 0.998 0.289 1.117 6.216 0.252 0.315 23 670122 1727 1982 256 0.999 0.310 0.952 4.799 0.297 0.157 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.997 0.303 1.431 9.054 0.251 0.305 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.004 0.063 1.091 9.354 0.036 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 0.998 0.293 1.117 6.044 0.252 0.307 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.002 0.097 1.075 4.929 0.048 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.980 0.201 0.150 2.945 0.178 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.997 0.248 0.785 4.445 0.227 0.213 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 0.999 0.345 1.860 9.375 0.275 0.408 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.419 5.187 47.539 0.344 0.576 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.211 0.105 0.007 0.266 3.490 -0.085 0.585 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.085 SERIES 670032 AND 670112 233 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.585 SERIES 670041 AND 670042 114 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.277 0.217 0.240 0.219 0.243 0.264 0.227 0.221 0.197 SDEV 0.228 0.197 0.177 0.160 0.155 0.152 0.182 0.169 0.167 SERR 0.050 0.029 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.793 0.781 0.828 0.839 0.873 0.890 0.871 0.867 0.850 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.980 0.164 0.280 3.646 0.166 0.224 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.300 0.153 0.060 106 183 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.13 1.01 1.08 2.21 23.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.223 0.174 0.023 -0.043 -0.131 -0.073 -0.035 -0.072 -0.015 -0.006 PACF 0.223 0.131 -0.043 -0.067 -0.114 -0.009 0.021 -0.063 0.000 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.118 0.123 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.068 0.195 0.131 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.257 0.225 0.017 -0.056 -0.148 -0.068 -0.026 -0.040 -0.067 -0.010 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.257 2 0.213 0.170 3 0.227 0.188 -0.082 4 0.220 0.205 -0.062 -0.090 5 0.209 0.198 -0.039 -0.065 -0.114 6 0.212 0.199 -0.038 -0.069 -0.119 0.022 7 0.211 0.204 -0.035 -0.067 -0.127 0.013 0.043 8 0.213 0.205 -0.041 -0.071 -0.129 0.022 0.053 -0.047 9 0.209 0.209 -0.039 -0.081 -0.135 0.019 0.070 -0.030 -0.083 10 0.210 0.210 -0.040 -0.082 -0.133 0.020 0.071 -0.033 -0.087 0.015 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2238.62 2220.90 2214.40 2214.43 2214.08 2212.28 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2214.14 2215.61 2216.96 2216.95 2218.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.213 0.170 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.30 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.26 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.213 0.216 0.082 0.054 0.026 0.015 0.007 0.004 0.002 0.0012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670011 2 0.306 0.581 -0.063 2 670012 2 0.255 0.381 0.195 3 670021 2 0.067 0.180 0.141 4 670022 2 0.063 0.167 0.148 5 670031 2 0.233 0.388 0.121 6 670032 2 0.273 0.369 0.217 7 670041 2 0.334 0.580 -0.004 8 670042 2 0.175 0.396 0.048 9 670051 2 0.060 0.166 0.132 10 670052 2 0.063 0.250 -0.009 11 670061 2 0.078 0.243 0.072 12 670062 2 0.166 0.399 0.017 13 670071 2 0.183 0.223 0.289 14 670072 2 0.054 0.134 0.146 15 670081 2 0.122 0.268 0.147 16 670082 2 0.112 0.271 0.120 17 670091 2 0.135 0.227 0.199 18 670101 2 0.051 0.212 0.039 19 670102 2 0.018 -0.026 -0.001 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670111 2 0.059 0.192 0.113 21 670112 2 0.134 0.307 0.096 22 670121 2 0.101 0.308 0.027 23 670122 2 0.031 0.145 0.078 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.134 0.277 0.099 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.092 0.140 0.085 MEDIAN 2 0.112 0.250 0.113 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.118 0.189 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.018 -0.026 -0.063 LOWER HINGE 2 0.061 0.186 0.033 UPPER HINGE 2 0.179 0.375 0.146 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.334 0.581 0.289 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.338 3.043 24.423 0.341 0.005 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.312 1.431 8.901 0.335 -0.010 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.331 2.469 15.188 0.311 -0.009 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.386 2.118 12.109 0.375 0.009 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.310 1.498 10.072 0.329 -0.022 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.320 0.913 4.789 0.326 -0.031 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.197 0.150 2.833 0.222 -0.001 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.000 0.244 0.383 3.413 0.273 -0.002 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.408 5.627 53.341 0.292 -0.010 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.258 1.061 7.402 0.273 0.000 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.308 1.527 6.619 0.309 -0.005 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.293 1.021 6.315 0.312 0.004 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.227 1.021 7.918 0.242 -0.029 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.241 0.527 3.545 0.261 -0.014 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.273 1.078 4.953 0.273 0.010 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.323 1.498 7.709 0.311 0.007 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.275 2.157 11.055 0.258 -0.030 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.225 1.139 6.568 0.245 -0.002 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.201 0.151 2.942 0.224 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.207 0.785 5.385 0.226 -0.002 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.223 0.819 4.513 0.244 -0.011 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.274 1.224 6.992 0.290 0.000 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.305 1.039 5.044 0.318 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.282 1.421 9.653 0.287 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.057 1.157 10.648 0.042 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.275 1.078 6.619 0.290 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.081 0.646 4.616 0.064 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.197 0.150 2.833 0.222 -0.031 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.234 0.866 4.871 0.251 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.316 1.513 9.486 0.315 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.408 5.627 53.341 0.375 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.225 0.097 0.006 0.405 3.681 -0.026 0.595 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.026 SERIES 670061 AND 670122 155 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.595 SERIES 670011 AND 670012 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.320 0.249 0.242 0.200 0.246 0.267 0.225 0.231 0.230 SDEV 0.204 0.180 0.164 0.138 0.147 0.142 0.156 0.158 0.150 SERR 0.044 0.027 0.017 0.013 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.825 0.810 0.830 0.823 0.875 0.892 0.870 0.874 0.873 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.984 0.160 0.308 4.011 0.193 -0.096 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.278 0.133 0.059 112 177 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.10 1.00 1.15 2.25 30.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.096 0.050 -0.020 -0.034 -0.132 -0.019 0.020 -0.058 0.011 0.015 PACF -0.096 0.041 -0.012 -0.040 -0.140 -0.043 0.026 -0.058 -0.016 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 -0.096 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.000 -0.010 -0.050 -0.140 -0.026 0.019 -0.056 0.009 0.011 PACF 0.001 0.000 -0.010 -0.050 -0.141 -0.027 0.018 -0.062 -0.007 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.984 0.166 0.279 3.707 0.166 0.242 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.241 0.197 0.034 -0.038 -0.137 -0.066 -0.031 -0.067 -0.019 -0.011 PACF 0.241 0.148 -0.046 -0.071 -0.121 0.007 0.032 -0.063 -0.008 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.118 0.124 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.081 0.206 0.149 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES