RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO564N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO564N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Niwot Ridge, (EK ab 011) DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 670 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 4003-10534 1694 1982 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 670012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1756 1760 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 670051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1813 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1960 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 670081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1852 1856 / 1929 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1781 1785 / 1868 1868 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 670111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 2 GAPS / 1741 1747 / 1768 1773 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 670112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1930 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 670121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1727 1731 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 670122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1815 1819 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 0.304 0.019 0.364 4.467 0.054 0.327 2 670012 1719 1982 264 0.280 0.018 0.249 3.428 0.061 0.249 3 670021 1827 1982 156 0.308 0.028 0.410 3.342 0.074 0.455 4 670022 1850 1982 133 0.287 0.020 -0.651 3.902 0.062 0.299 5 670031 1799 1982 184 0.338 0.044 0.596 3.282 0.082 0.596 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.359 0.050 0.417 3.081 0.070 0.759 7 670041 1869 1982 114 0.303 0.023 0.182 3.540 0.070 0.192 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.333 0.030 0.354 3.755 0.059 0.647 9 670051 1802 1982 181 0.294 0.023 1.219 8.025 0.062 0.410 10 670052 1771 1982 212 0.312 0.029 1.295 10.488 0.057 0.539 11 670061 1828 1982 155 0.315 0.023 0.545 3.293 0.055 0.469 12 670062 1817 1982 166 0.302 0.024 1.104 6.800 0.060 0.458 13 670071 1725 1982 258 0.323 0.019 -0.010 3.088 0.058 0.236 14 670072 1725 1982 258 0.335 0.028 0.270 2.924 0.057 0.626 15 670081 1755 1982 228 0.314 0.028 -0.324 2.915 0.062 0.547 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.298 0.027 0.391 3.860 0.067 0.529 17 670091 1763 1982 220 0.349 0.022 -0.046 3.211 0.054 0.417 18 670101 1768 1982 215 0.312 0.022 0.722 4.232 0.063 0.275 19 670102 1829 1982 154 0.311 0.019 0.002 3.588 0.057 0.271 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 0.332 0.021 -0.215 4.302 0.053 0.403 21 670112 1715 1982 268 0.335 0.022 0.163 2.740 0.048 0.526 22 670121 1694 1982 289 0.309 0.025 -0.296 2.936 0.056 0.613 23 670122 1727 1982 256 0.286 0.024 0.596 3.103 0.052 0.676 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1694 TO 1982 289 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.315 0.026 0.319 4.100 0.061 0.457 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.020 0.008 0.485 1.867 0.008 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 218 0.312 0.023 0.354 3.428 0.059 0.458 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 89 0.030 0.007 0.574 0.971 0.007 0.259 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.280 0.018 -0.651 2.740 0.048 0.192 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.302 0.021 -0.004 3.096 0.055 0.313 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 255 0.332 0.028 0.570 4.067 0.063 0.572 MAXIMUM VALUE 284 0.359 0.050 1.295 10.488 0.082 0.759 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.334 0.186 0.012 -0.759 3.827 -0.307 0.847 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.307 SERIES 670032 AND 670051 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.847 SERIES 670031 AND 670032 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.300 0.250 0.290 0.338 0.344 0.308 0.459 0.247 0.222 SDEV 0.176 0.172 0.168 0.181 0.179 0.163 0.209 0.218 0.186 SERR 0.038 0.026 0.018 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.013 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.811 0.811 0.862 0.905 0.918 0.910 0.951 0.883 0.868 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.315 0.016 0.336 3.431 0.038 0.530 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.188 0.117 -0.010 78 211 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.29 1.00 1.07 1.37 3.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 220. 92. 114. 166. 258. 289. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.528 0.454 0.444 0.465 0.441 0.416 0.389 0.418 0.405 0.406 PACF 0.528 0.244 0.198 0.199 0.119 0.078 0.042 0.105 0.059 0.071 95% C.L. 0.118 0.147 0.165 0.181 0.197 0.210 0.221 0.230 0.241 0.250 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.400 0.267 0.129 0.126 0.172 0.116 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006184 0.31218696 2 670012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006135 0.28805381 3 670021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013975 0.31904715 4 670022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007019 0.28228980 5 670031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054588 0.38864577 6 670032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033005 0.39732796 7 670041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022025 0.29031828 8 670042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039203 0.36538729 9 670051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015022 0.28011110 10 670052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031916 0.34597155 11 670061 1 0.08915985 0.00141834 0.00000000 0.23460361 12 670062 1 0.03144572 0.00882228 0.00000000 0.28519243 13 670071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006146 0.33041716 14 670072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002082 0.33652177 15 670081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023054 0.34081328 16 670082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015120 0.31668943 17 670091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007551 0.35711706 18 670101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002356 0.30945578 19 670102 1 0.00339047 0.01295704 0.00000000 0.30906090 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008471 0.31947356 21 670112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005822 0.32691658 22 670121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014830 0.33064434 23 670122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010810 0.27206501 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.062 0.514 4.741 0.054 0.278 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.062 0.358 3.208 0.061 0.187 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.088 0.275 3.369 0.074 0.425 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.070 -0.617 4.132 0.062 0.285 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.096 1.076 4.778 0.082 0.277 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.127 1.042 4.410 0.070 0.704 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.073 0.163 3.817 0.069 0.111 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.000 0.069 0.344 3.245 0.058 0.420 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.072 0.944 6.683 0.061 0.338 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.066 1.829 14.312 0.057 0.160 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.072 0.700 3.788 0.055 0.435 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.078 1.207 6.964 0.060 0.405 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.059 0.103 3.338 0.058 0.189 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.084 0.295 2.920 0.056 0.643 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.073 0.171 4.933 0.061 0.316 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.084 0.760 4.496 0.065 0.436 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.061 0.127 3.327 0.054 0.385 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.069 0.730 4.176 0.062 0.272 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.060 0.017 3.565 0.057 0.267 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.058 -0.337 4.967 0.053 0.325 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.064 0.223 2.740 0.048 0.504 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.071 -0.065 2.849 0.055 0.483 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.076 0.518 3.267 0.052 0.631 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.074 0.451 4.523 0.060 0.369 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.015 0.540 2.401 0.008 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.071 0.344 3.817 0.058 0.338 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.014 0.600 1.462 0.007 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.058 -0.617 2.740 0.048 0.111 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.063 0.145 3.297 0.055 0.275 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.077 0.745 4.759 0.062 0.436 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.127 1.829 14.312 0.082 0.704 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670012 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670021 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670022 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670031 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670032 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670041 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670042 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670051 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670061 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670071 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670072 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670082 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670091 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670101 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670102 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670112 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670121 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 670122 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.060 0.451 4.489 0.054 0.234 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.060 0.283 3.128 0.061 0.110 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.078 0.203 3.076 0.074 0.270 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.066 -0.446 4.496 0.062 0.188 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.079 1.162 5.293 0.082 -0.021 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.999 0.083 1.019 5.615 0.070 0.354 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.069 0.033 4.063 0.069 0.029 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.000 0.066 0.389 3.265 0.058 0.351 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.062 1.056 6.508 0.061 0.130 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.064 2.214 18.622 0.057 0.087 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.062 1.047 4.994 0.055 0.260 12 670062 1817 1982 166 0.999 0.063 1.540 9.540 0.060 0.119 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.057 0.083 3.484 0.058 0.154 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.061 0.139 3.095 0.057 0.339 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.067 0.576 7.305 0.061 0.176 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.078 0.599 4.317 0.065 0.354 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.055 0.047 3.584 0.054 0.247 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.063 0.839 4.802 0.062 0.135 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.055 -0.057 3.720 0.057 0.130 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.053 -0.395 5.659 0.053 0.192 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.053 0.290 3.121 0.048 0.288 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.064 -0.045 3.230 0.055 0.370 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.067 0.185 3.066 0.052 0.518 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.065 0.488 5.151 0.060 0.218 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.008 0.632 3.345 0.008 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.063 0.290 4.317 0.058 0.192 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.007 0.864 2.207 0.007 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.999 0.053 -0.446 3.066 0.048 -0.021 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.060 0.065 3.248 0.055 0.130 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.067 0.929 5.454 0.062 0.314 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.083 2.214 18.622 0.082 0.518 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.302 0.114 0.007 -0.102 3.070 -0.001 0.586 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.001 SERIES 670062 AND 670081 166 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.586 SERIES 670101 AND 670102 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.329 0.260 0.291 0.350 0.368 0.302 0.363 0.257 0.246 SDEV 0.135 0.171 0.164 0.176 0.161 0.158 0.154 0.180 0.179 SERR 0.030 0.026 0.017 0.017 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.831 0.819 0.862 0.909 0.926 0.907 0.929 0.889 0.883 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.999 0.040 0.367 3.418 0.040 0.188 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.105 0.047 -0.002 90 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.65 1.00 1.07 1.72 9.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.187 0.099 0.113 0.163 0.086 0.071 0.052 0.050 0.048 0.114 PACF 0.187 0.067 0.086 0.129 0.027 0.028 0.007 0.008 0.015 0.089 95% C.L. 0.118 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.041 0.190 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.209 0.185 0.228 0.250 0.166 0.201 0.087 0.069 0.109 0.188 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.209 2 0.178 0.147 3 0.152 0.116 0.176 4 0.121 0.096 0.150 0.173 5 0.112 0.088 0.144 0.167 0.056 6 0.106 0.071 0.130 0.158 0.046 0.097 7 0.111 0.074 0.138 0.165 0.049 0.102 -0.050 8 0.109 0.078 0.140 0.172 0.056 0.105 -0.045 -0.045 9 0.110 0.079 0.138 0.171 0.052 0.102 -0.047 -0.048 0.021 10 0.107 0.085 0.144 0.158 0.046 0.082 -0.063 -0.057 0.008 0.122 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1433.01 1422.16 1417.80 1410.72 1403.89 1404.97 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1404.25 1405.53 1406.94 1408.81 1406.49 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.121 0.096 0.150 0.173 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.05 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 113.70 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.121 0.111 0.175 0.223 0.081 0.077 0.081 0.068 0.042 0.0370 0.033 0.026 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.0044 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670011 4 0.131 0.161 0.105 0.141 0.101 2 670012 4 0.047 0.114 -0.048 0.144 0.040 3 670021 4 0.122 0.226 0.144 0.126 -0.114 4 670022 4 0.070 0.230 -0.139 0.144 -0.076 5 670031 4 0.045 -0.019 -0.060 0.169 0.048 6 670032 4 0.253 0.185 0.136 0.172 0.192 7 670041 4 0.042 0.035 -0.066 0.064 0.012 8 670042 4 0.241 0.205 0.282 0.048 0.112 9 670051 4 0.067 0.116 -0.040 0.117 0.164 10 670052 4 0.024 0.090 -0.030 0.012 0.026 11 670061 4 0.072 0.250 0.041 -0.002 0.040 12 670062 4 0.088 0.072 0.154 0.215 -0.041 13 670071 4 0.053 0.151 -0.023 0.032 0.158 14 670072 4 0.155 0.272 0.073 0.085 0.122 15 670081 4 0.136 0.106 0.207 0.240 -0.087 16 670082 4 0.245 0.209 0.250 0.092 0.079 17 670091 4 0.133 0.172 0.181 0.035 0.141 18 670101 4 0.067 0.092 0.086 0.086 0.160 19 670102 4 0.099 0.125 0.084 -0.054 0.266 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670111 4 0.103 0.121 0.182 0.105 0.064 21 670112 4 0.188 0.217 0.202 -0.007 0.129 22 670121 4 0.206 0.276 0.224 -0.032 0.119 23 670122 4 0.302 0.413 0.153 -0.004 0.095 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.126 0.166 0.091 0.084 0.076 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.079 0.093 0.117 0.079 0.094 MEDIAN 4 0.103 0.161 0.105 0.086 0.095 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.105 0.112 0.208 0.120 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.024 -0.019 -0.139 -0.054 -0.114 LOWER HINGE 4 0.067 0.110 -0.026 0.022 0.033 UPPER HINGE 4 0.171 0.222 0.182 0.142 0.135 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.302 0.413 0.282 0.240 0.266 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.056 0.490 4.942 0.059 -0.013 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.058 0.258 3.123 0.065 -0.002 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.074 0.366 3.086 0.081 -0.011 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.064 -0.426 4.313 0.069 -0.005 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.078 1.245 5.608 0.080 -0.004 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.072 0.714 5.443 0.078 -0.026 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.069 0.028 4.159 0.070 0.004 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.000 0.057 0.530 3.492 0.063 0.006 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.060 1.279 7.527 0.063 0.012 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.064 2.318 19.829 0.060 -0.003 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.060 1.021 4.506 0.062 0.002 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.060 1.651 10.479 0.063 0.000 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.056 0.144 3.271 0.063 -0.003 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.056 0.284 2.997 0.064 0.000 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.063 0.374 5.743 0.065 -0.003 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.069 0.807 4.782 0.074 -0.011 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.051 0.186 3.172 0.058 -0.002 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.061 0.820 5.414 0.065 0.002 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.052 0.025 3.516 0.060 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.051 -0.294 4.931 0.056 0.006 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.049 0.448 3.681 0.053 -0.024 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.057 -0.155 3.552 0.063 -0.005 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.056 0.033 3.270 0.063 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.061 0.528 5.254 0.065 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.008 0.648 3.608 0.007 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.060 0.374 4.313 0.063 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.008 0.725 2.047 0.006 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.049 -0.426 2.997 0.053 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.056 0.088 3.381 0.061 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.064 0.814 5.428 0.067 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.078 2.318 19.829 0.081 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.301 0.111 0.007 -0.115 3.306 0.001 0.614 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.001 SERIES 670062 AND 670081 166 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.614 SERIES 670011 AND 670012 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.382 0.311 0.306 0.387 0.392 0.334 0.316 0.246 0.247 SDEV 0.122 0.161 0.156 0.161 0.153 0.140 0.140 0.162 0.172 SERR 0.027 0.024 0.016 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.861 0.853 0.871 0.921 0.933 0.919 0.914 0.882 0.883 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.999 0.037 0.383 3.184 0.043 -0.031 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.168 0.071 -0.029 100 189 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.65 1.01 1.08 1.74 7.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.031 -0.069 -0.024 0.022 0.027 -0.002 -0.021 -0.004 -0.014 0.059 PACF -0.031 -0.070 -0.029 0.015 0.025 0.002 -0.016 -0.004 -0.018 0.056 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.023 -0.002 -0.021 0.002 -0.005 0.066 PACF -0.001 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.023 -0.002 -0.021 0.002 -0.005 0.065 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.001 -0.001 0.002 0.003 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.999 0.040 0.286 3.364 0.040 0.219 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.218 0.195 0.236 0.257 0.145 0.124 0.121 0.120 0.088 0.131 PACF 0.218 0.154 0.179 0.174 0.025 0.009 0.009 0.023 0.008 0.069 95% C.L. 0.118 0.123 0.127 0.133 0.140 0.142 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.147 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.136 0.122 0.103 0.159 0.183 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES