RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO564P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO564P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Niwot Ridge, (EK ab 011) LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCEN - 670 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 4003-10534 1694 1982 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 670071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1868 1868 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 2.154 0.788 0.730 2.970 0.243 0.625 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.829 0.609 0.985 3.988 0.271 0.420 3 670021 1827 1982 156 2.620 0.842 1.235 5.273 0.263 0.373 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.857 0.600 0.848 4.334 0.313 0.203 5 670031 1799 1982 184 2.688 1.166 1.228 6.008 0.277 0.479 6 670032 1750 1982 233 3.054 1.390 1.255 5.282 0.261 0.612 7 670041 1869 1982 114 2.438 0.548 1.277 5.937 0.159 0.511 8 670042 1818 1982 165 2.594 0.949 0.901 3.166 0.183 0.723 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.440 0.565 2.232 11.016 0.270 0.439 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.673 0.619 3.408 28.044 0.239 0.458 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.922 0.706 2.559 13.607 0.297 0.281 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.700 0.497 0.662 3.571 0.234 0.478 13 670071 1725 1982 258 2.489 0.784 1.007 3.946 0.234 0.511 14 670072 1725 1982 258 2.240 0.881 1.290 6.170 0.267 0.582 15 670081 1755 1982 228 2.524 0.715 1.036 5.458 0.259 0.238 16 670082 1741 1982 242 2.189 0.761 0.851 3.851 0.284 0.333 17 670091 1763 1982 220 2.589 0.712 0.929 4.873 0.224 0.462 18 670101 1768 1982 215 2.387 0.630 0.935 4.102 0.222 0.334 19 670102 1829 1982 154 2.491 0.707 0.780 3.974 0.255 0.319 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 2.576 0.626 1.016 4.187 0.185 0.527 21 670112 1715 1982 268 2.163 0.601 0.690 4.278 0.200 0.559 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.880 0.624 0.947 4.176 0.233 0.544 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.526 0.519 2.013 10.657 0.263 0.376 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1694 TO 1982 289 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 2.218 0.732 1.253 6.473 0.245 0.452 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.424 0.210 0.675 5.411 0.038 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 2.240 0.706 1.007 4.334 0.255 0.462 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.682 0.181 0.390 1.992 0.040 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.440 0.497 0.662 2.970 0.159 0.203 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.868 0.605 0.876 3.981 0.228 0.354 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 257 2.550 0.786 1.266 5.972 0.269 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 3.054 1.390 3.408 28.044 0.313 0.723 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.209 0.176 0.011 0.068 2.924 -0.221 0.694 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.221 SERIES 670011 AND 670042 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.694 SERIES 670032 AND 670042 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.312 0.171 0.203 0.281 0.318 0.210 0.324 0.273 0.191 SDEV 0.160 0.188 0.162 0.160 0.169 0.167 0.181 0.197 0.173 SERR 0.035 0.028 0.017 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.819 0.726 0.796 0.879 0.909 0.858 0.917 0.896 0.845 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 2.139 0.368 0.657 3.442 0.150 0.395 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.523 0.363 -0.088 93 196 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.74 1.00 1.11 1.85 6.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 220. 92. 114. 166. 258. 289. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.394 0.352 0.316 0.396 0.187 0.255 0.203 0.170 0.110 0.206 PACF 0.394 0.233 0.148 0.239 -0.101 0.086 0.008 -0.034 -0.006 0.093 95% C.L. 0.118 0.135 0.147 0.156 0.169 0.172 0.177 0.180 0.183 0.184 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.277 0.257 0.153 0.099 0.264 -0.105 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00665769 1.26845193 2 670012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00337479 1.38185561 3 670021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00444452 2.96895862 4 670022 1 0.73885316 0.05633797 0.00000000 1.76111746 5 670031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01260900 3.85426760 6 670032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00879510 4.08306170 7 670041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00557615 2.75852346 8 670042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01531542 3.86511898 9 670051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00291854 1.17408109 10 670052 1 1.29848182 0.01264965 0.00000000 1.22488523 11 670061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066904 1.97431421 12 670062 1 0.47018522 0.03392579 0.00000000 1.61797428 13 670071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113330 2.34002376 14 670072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108871 2.09893441 15 670081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140161 2.68425655 16 670082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00357032 2.62831783 17 670091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00183322 2.38670230 18 670101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00194837 2.17636681 19 670102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00310277 2.73169851 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00192601 2.31159711 21 670112 1 0.90003216 0.03010743 0.00000000 2.05311155 22 670121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007109 1.88999712 23 670122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076007 1.42881525 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.005 0.297 1.069 4.642 0.242 0.432 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.002 0.305 0.988 4.323 0.270 0.303 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.311 1.195 5.148 0.261 0.333 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.317 0.988 4.540 0.310 0.144 5 670031 1799 1982 184 0.998 0.338 1.077 4.439 0.275 0.302 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.993 0.414 1.851 7.558 0.260 0.534 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.211 1.309 5.828 0.158 0.452 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.004 0.223 0.778 3.197 0.182 0.352 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.002 0.358 1.497 7.818 0.268 0.407 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.292 2.255 16.100 0.237 0.257 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.370 2.692 14.534 0.295 0.282 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.290 0.890 4.346 0.232 0.458 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.311 0.998 4.012 0.232 0.504 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.390 1.250 5.995 0.266 0.571 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.284 1.200 6.397 0.258 0.222 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.999 0.335 1.119 4.492 0.282 0.290 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.271 0.900 4.782 0.223 0.447 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.259 0.974 4.266 0.220 0.311 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.277 0.701 3.673 0.253 0.290 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.238 1.204 5.427 0.184 0.510 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.270 0.982 5.450 0.199 0.519 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.332 0.953 4.197 0.232 0.542 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.334 1.910 10.206 0.262 0.362 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.306 1.251 6.147 0.244 0.384 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.002 0.051 0.488 3.293 0.037 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.305 1.077 4.782 0.253 0.362 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.061 0.301 1.862 0.040 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.993 0.211 0.701 3.197 0.158 0.144 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.274 0.978 4.334 0.227 0.296 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.335 1.280 6.196 0.267 0.481 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.005 0.414 2.692 16.100 0.310 0.571 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670012 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670021 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670022 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670031 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670032 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670041 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670042 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670051 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670061 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670071 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670072 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670082 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670091 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670101 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670102 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670112 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670121 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 670122 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 0.998 0.269 0.849 4.024 0.242 0.310 2 670012 1719 1982 264 0.998 0.273 0.843 4.031 0.270 0.173 3 670021 1827 1982 156 0.996 0.283 1.033 4.785 0.261 0.233 4 670022 1850 1982 133 0.998 0.300 0.749 3.766 0.310 0.062 5 670031 1799 1982 184 0.994 0.306 1.264 6.043 0.275 0.180 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.992 0.297 1.168 5.273 0.260 0.291 7 670041 1869 1982 114 0.997 0.179 1.074 5.074 0.158 0.281 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.998 0.206 0.878 3.588 0.182 0.254 9 670051 1802 1982 181 0.996 0.307 2.081 13.331 0.268 0.163 10 670052 1771 1982 212 0.998 0.279 2.675 19.501 0.237 0.179 11 670061 1828 1982 155 0.998 0.358 2.644 14.293 0.295 0.250 12 670062 1817 1982 166 0.997 0.254 0.488 3.756 0.232 0.311 13 670071 1725 1982 258 0.997 0.267 0.913 4.118 0.232 0.349 14 670072 1725 1982 258 0.996 0.284 0.795 4.876 0.267 0.281 15 670081 1755 1982 228 0.999 0.279 1.255 6.717 0.258 0.197 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.998 0.310 0.794 3.897 0.282 0.218 17 670091 1763 1982 220 0.996 0.238 0.809 4.534 0.222 0.296 18 670101 1768 1982 215 0.999 0.247 0.917 4.011 0.220 0.250 19 670102 1829 1982 154 0.997 0.253 0.542 3.307 0.253 0.183 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 0.998 0.198 0.706 3.933 0.184 0.303 21 670112 1715 1982 268 0.997 0.227 0.564 3.832 0.199 0.328 22 670121 1694 1982 289 0.994 0.272 0.561 3.545 0.232 0.376 23 670122 1727 1982 256 0.996 0.300 1.600 8.607 0.262 0.263 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.997 0.269 1.096 6.037 0.244 0.249 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.002 0.041 0.611 4.135 0.037 0.072 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 0.997 0.273 0.878 4.118 0.253 0.254 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.002 0.049 0.440 1.793 0.040 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.992 0.179 0.488 3.307 0.158 0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.996 0.250 0.772 3.865 0.227 0.190 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 0.998 0.299 1.212 5.658 0.267 0.300 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 0.999 0.358 2.675 19.501 0.310 0.376 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.247 0.093 0.006 0.194 3.445 0.014 0.578 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.014 SERIES 670022 AND 670112 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.578 SERIES 670101 AND 670102 154 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.303 0.179 0.201 0.294 0.332 0.209 0.289 0.288 0.217 SDEV 0.178 0.193 0.157 0.160 0.155 0.162 0.162 0.168 0.150 SERR 0.039 0.029 0.016 0.016 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.813 0.737 0.793 0.886 0.914 0.857 0.903 0.903 0.865 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.988 0.148 0.402 3.098 0.147 0.238 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.291 0.147 0.048 115 174 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.59 1.00 1.08 1.68 9.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.237 0.137 0.129 0.228 0.041 0.083 0.089 0.074 0.024 0.106 PACF 0.237 0.085 0.084 0.185 -0.067 0.049 0.037 0.002 0.001 0.075 95% C.L. 0.118 0.124 0.126 0.128 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.136 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.109 0.193 0.057 0.048 0.191 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.255 0.158 0.177 0.273 0.056 0.127 0.112 0.072 -0.001 0.139 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.255 2 0.229 0.099 3 0.217 0.071 0.125 4 0.191 0.056 0.079 0.210 5 0.208 0.062 0.084 0.226 -0.083 6 0.215 0.045 0.077 0.221 -0.099 0.079 7 0.213 0.047 0.072 0.219 -0.100 0.075 0.021 8 0.214 0.048 0.070 0.225 -0.098 0.076 0.026 -0.025 9 0.213 0.049 0.072 0.222 -0.091 0.078 0.028 -0.018 -0.032 10 0.216 0.051 0.069 0.214 -0.082 0.055 0.020 -0.023 -0.054 0.104 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2205.68 2188.28 2187.41 2184.89 2173.84 2173.86 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2174.04 2175.91 2177.73 2179.44 2178.31 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.191 0.056 0.079 0.210 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.88 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.191 0.092 0.107 0.251 0.101 0.061 0.060 0.076 0.044 0.0302 0.027 0.026 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.0038 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670011 4 0.112 0.301 -0.016 0.102 0.029 2 670012 4 0.082 0.129 0.039 0.137 0.145 3 670021 4 0.107 0.199 0.051 0.210 -0.015 4 670022 4 0.018 0.061 0.086 -0.042 0.012 5 670031 4 0.149 0.100 0.018 0.227 0.199 6 670032 4 0.146 0.224 0.030 0.171 0.127 7 670041 4 0.115 0.324 -0.126 0.170 -0.048 8 670042 4 0.123 0.185 0.201 0.090 -0.025 9 670051 4 0.053 0.137 0.065 0.138 0.008 10 670052 4 0.035 0.183 -0.028 0.023 0.033 11 670061 4 0.071 0.272 -0.085 0.048 0.024 12 670062 4 0.124 0.353 -0.113 -0.034 0.113 13 670071 4 0.211 0.247 0.178 0.000 0.194 14 670072 4 0.148 0.180 0.154 0.106 0.128 15 670081 4 0.096 0.130 0.098 0.183 0.068 16 670082 4 0.073 0.180 0.116 0.076 0.002 17 670091 4 0.164 0.230 0.066 0.126 0.111 18 670101 4 0.130 0.213 -0.038 0.187 0.147 19 670102 4 0.064 0.165 -0.007 0.092 0.132 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670111 4 0.116 0.257 0.142 0.014 0.001 21 670112 4 0.128 0.283 0.150 0.004 -0.031 22 670121 4 0.190 0.272 0.134 0.104 0.082 23 670122 4 0.126 0.181 0.168 0.069 0.108 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.112 0.209 0.056 0.096 0.067 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.047 0.073 0.094 0.077 0.074 MEDIAN 4 0.116 0.199 0.065 0.102 0.068 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.061 0.092 0.150 0.118 0.122 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.018 0.061 -0.126 -0.042 -0.048 LOWER HINGE 4 0.078 0.173 -0.012 0.036 0.005 UPPER HINGE 4 0.138 0.264 0.138 0.154 0.127 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.211 0.353 0.201 0.227 0.199 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.254 0.824 4.575 0.269 -0.001 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.262 0.868 4.263 0.284 0.004 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.267 0.813 4.334 0.289 -0.007 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.298 0.670 3.691 0.318 0.001 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.285 1.383 7.168 0.290 -0.024 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.273 0.839 5.190 0.290 -0.011 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.168 1.161 5.704 0.181 -0.003 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.000 0.194 0.963 3.844 0.195 0.004 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.299 2.292 14.770 0.283 0.001 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.275 2.376 16.497 0.263 0.000 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.345 2.498 13.957 0.334 0.000 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.238 0.440 3.655 0.270 -0.001 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.238 0.882 4.349 0.252 0.019 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.262 0.734 4.715 0.285 -0.002 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.265 1.018 5.509 0.279 0.001 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.299 0.846 4.213 0.308 0.001 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.221 0.771 4.441 0.244 0.024 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.231 1.001 4.180 0.244 0.005 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.245 0.758 4.194 0.268 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.187 0.496 3.602 0.208 0.000 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.211 0.883 4.375 0.226 0.004 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.244 0.693 4.053 0.261 -0.001 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.281 1.612 8.926 0.286 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.254 1.079 6.096 0.266 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.041 0.577 3.773 0.037 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.262 0.868 4.375 0.270 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.044 0.325 1.419 0.040 0.005 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.168 0.440 3.602 0.181 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.234 0.765 4.187 0.248 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.278 1.090 5.606 0.288 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.345 2.498 16.497 0.334 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.236 0.092 0.006 0.282 3.444 -0.014 0.538 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.014 SERIES 670022 AND 670121 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.538 SERIES 670011 AND 670012 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.347 0.215 0.208 0.298 0.345 0.226 0.240 0.261 0.211 SDEV 0.147 0.182 0.163 0.139 0.142 0.156 0.152 0.156 0.131 SERR 0.032 0.027 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.842 0.779 0.800 0.888 0.919 0.869 0.879 0.891 0.860 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.990 0.137 0.446 3.088 0.154 -0.007 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.303 0.162 0.019 116 173 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.65 1.00 1.10 1.76 11.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 -0.023 -0.035 0.115 -0.063 0.028 0.021 0.023 -0.042 0.089 PACF -0.007 -0.023 -0.036 0.114 -0.064 0.032 0.026 0.007 -0.025 0.083 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.008 -0.005 -0.002 0.001 -0.058 0.022 0.029 0.010 -0.027 0.092 PACF 0.008 -0.005 -0.002 0.001 -0.058 0.023 0.028 0.010 -0.027 0.090 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.004 0.008 -0.005 -0.002 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.988 0.146 0.337 3.116 0.144 0.249 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.248 0.150 0.173 0.262 0.074 0.110 0.115 0.099 0.035 0.121 PACF 0.248 0.095 0.125 0.201 -0.053 0.053 0.033 0.008 -0.013 0.076 95% C.L. 0.118 0.125 0.127 0.130 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.128 0.185 0.055 0.084 0.208 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES