RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO564X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO564X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Niwot Ridge, (EK ab 011) DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 670 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3400 4003-10534 1694 1982 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 670071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1868 1868 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 0.609 0.073 -0.288 2.591 0.073 0.714 2 670012 1719 1982 264 0.586 0.065 -0.341 2.759 0.077 0.621 3 670021 1827 1982 156 0.647 0.066 -0.714 2.955 0.069 0.624 4 670022 1850 1982 133 0.686 0.044 -0.757 3.581 0.058 0.378 5 670031 1799 1982 184 0.699 0.073 -0.484 2.641 0.067 0.659 6 670032 1750 1982 233 0.725 0.053 -0.300 3.158 0.061 0.430 7 670041 1869 1982 114 0.782 0.041 -0.779 3.866 0.050 0.238 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.700 0.062 -0.279 2.475 0.057 0.653 9 670051 1802 1982 181 0.683 0.060 -0.295 2.857 0.061 0.606 10 670052 1771 1982 212 0.710 0.067 -0.614 2.675 0.056 0.699 11 670061 1828 1982 155 0.712 0.047 -0.297 3.124 0.055 0.475 12 670062 1817 1982 166 0.692 0.070 -0.831 3.225 0.063 0.685 13 670071 1725 1982 258 0.578 0.075 0.367 2.282 0.063 0.805 14 670072 1725 1982 258 0.650 0.044 -0.204 3.510 0.066 0.248 15 670081 1755 1982 228 0.664 0.060 -0.480 2.863 0.065 0.566 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.621 0.088 0.212 2.289 0.071 0.792 17 670091 1763 1982 220 0.670 0.050 0.179 3.116 0.064 0.355 18 670101 1768 1982 215 0.643 0.062 0.154 2.866 0.065 0.653 19 670102 1829 1982 154 0.609 0.050 0.076 2.880 0.058 0.567 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 0.709 0.060 -0.474 3.181 0.052 0.695 21 670112 1715 1982 268 0.731 0.067 -0.355 2.544 0.054 0.718 22 670121 1694 1982 289 0.663 0.076 -0.016 2.459 0.061 0.776 23 670122 1727 1982 256 0.658 0.053 -0.107 2.680 0.074 0.367 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1694 TO 1982 289 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 0.671 0.061 -0.288 2.895 0.063 0.579 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.050 0.012 0.337 0.408 0.007 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 0.670 0.062 -0.297 2.863 0.063 0.624 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.059 0.017 0.421 0.525 0.009 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.578 0.041 -0.831 2.282 0.050 0.238 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.645 0.051 -0.482 2.616 0.057 0.453 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 257 0.704 0.068 -0.061 3.141 0.066 0.697 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 0.782 0.088 0.367 3.866 0.077 0.805 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.353 0.220 0.014 -1.002 4.048 -0.384 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.384 SERIES 670021 AND 670071 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 670111 AND 670112 268 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.507 0.438 0.290 0.324 0.434 0.429 0.255 0.199 0.322 SDEV 0.162 0.137 0.262 0.180 0.140 0.149 0.222 0.217 0.246 SERR 0.035 0.020 0.027 0.018 0.011 0.010 0.014 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.911 0.909 0.862 0.899 0.943 0.944 0.887 0.851 0.916 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 0.682 0.048 0.132 3.723 0.047 0.638 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.469 -0.219 0.216 81 208 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.23 1.00 1.05 1.28 10.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 220. 92. 114. 166. 258. 289. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.636 0.639 0.589 0.519 0.486 0.526 0.502 0.514 0.477 0.471 PACF 0.636 0.394 0.184 0.023 0.025 0.183 0.105 0.088 -0.016 0.022 95% C.L. 0.118 0.158 0.191 0.214 0.231 0.245 0.260 0.273 0.286 0.297 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.546 0.287 0.329 0.224 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061241 0.69020581 2 670012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042257 0.64155895 3 670021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070980 0.70225805 4 670022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045664 0.71660972 5 670031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083817 0.77676940 6 670032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014894 0.74257660 7 670041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045098 0.75608599 8 670042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017076 0.71380931 9 670051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057527 0.73544383 10 670052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064532 0.77891535 11 670061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000251 0.71238959 12 670062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098315 0.77408105 13 670071 1 0.18331672 0.02246954 0.00000000 0.54661983 14 670072 1 0.09409608 0.06744704 0.00000000 0.64504433 15 670081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039320 0.70914370 16 670082 1 0.25627270 0.01357968 0.00000000 0.54562217 17 670091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022799 0.69478333 18 670101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057617 0.70557487 19 670102 1 0.08223273 0.02425483 0.00000000 0.58747172 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049672 0.77742362 21 670112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062434 0.81498069 22 670121 1 0.38736472 0.00283111 0.00000000 0.39914915 23 670122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013032 0.67522240 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.094 0.049 3.520 0.072 0.530 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.098 -0.123 3.017 0.077 0.518 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.091 -0.233 2.667 0.068 0.533 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.059 -0.635 4.243 0.057 0.260 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.084 0.002 2.995 0.066 0.481 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.072 -0.308 3.130 0.061 0.414 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.049 -0.935 4.220 0.049 0.112 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.000 0.088 -0.194 2.466 0.056 0.649 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.076 -0.114 2.789 0.061 0.481 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.077 -0.305 2.758 0.056 0.547 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.066 -0.296 3.123 0.054 0.472 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.076 -0.522 3.255 0.063 0.434 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.106 0.389 2.931 0.063 0.710 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.063 -0.513 3.358 0.066 0.141 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.083 -0.389 2.665 0.065 0.473 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.096 -0.080 3.262 0.071 0.535 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.072 0.348 3.497 0.064 0.292 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.079 -0.173 2.826 0.065 0.491 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.074 0.013 3.583 0.058 0.496 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.065 -0.205 3.015 0.052 0.482 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.063 -0.175 3.124 0.053 0.416 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.067 -0.039 3.116 0.061 0.359 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.079 -0.022 2.624 0.073 0.344 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.077 -0.194 3.138 0.062 0.442 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.014 0.292 0.455 0.007 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.076 -0.175 3.116 0.063 0.481 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.019 0.276 0.503 0.009 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.049 -0.935 2.466 0.049 0.112 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.067 -0.307 2.807 0.057 0.386 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.086 -0.030 3.310 0.066 0.524 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.106 0.389 4.243 0.077 0.710 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670011 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670012 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670021 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670022 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670031 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670032 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670041 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670042 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670051 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670061 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670071 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670072 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670081 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670082 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670091 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670101 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670102 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670111 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670112 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670121 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 670122 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.088 -0.085 3.382 0.072 0.461 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.088 -0.312 3.469 0.077 0.416 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.073 -0.351 2.761 0.069 0.259 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.058 -0.571 4.236 0.057 0.236 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.077 -0.245 3.115 0.066 0.390 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.067 -0.309 3.310 0.061 0.340 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.045 -0.885 3.969 0.049 -0.080 8 670042 1818 1982 165 0.999 0.066 -0.234 2.893 0.056 0.378 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.070 -0.137 3.097 0.061 0.400 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.065 -0.301 3.409 0.056 0.380 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.054 -0.406 3.562 0.055 0.217 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.067 -0.505 3.522 0.063 0.264 13 670071 1725 1982 258 0.999 0.088 0.129 2.703 0.063 0.577 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.063 -0.548 3.418 0.066 0.128 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.077 -0.487 2.775 0.065 0.405 16 670082 1741 1982 242 0.999 0.086 -0.208 3.362 0.071 0.421 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.066 0.415 3.697 0.064 0.172 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.075 -0.250 2.886 0.065 0.434 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.071 0.003 3.632 0.057 0.452 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.059 -0.190 3.136 0.052 0.381 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.058 -0.316 3.544 0.053 0.321 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.067 -0.037 3.134 0.061 0.349 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.075 -0.046 2.568 0.073 0.286 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.070 -0.255 3.286 0.062 0.330 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.011 0.265 0.413 0.007 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.067 -0.250 3.362 0.063 0.378 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.012 0.268 0.538 0.009 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.999 0.045 -0.885 2.568 0.049 -0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.064 -0.379 2.995 0.057 0.262 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.076 -0.111 3.533 0.066 0.410 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.088 0.415 4.236 0.077 0.577 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.301 0.115 0.007 -0.466 3.231 -0.129 0.571 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 670081 AND 670102 154 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.571 SERIES 670061 AND 670062 155 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.464 0.464 0.314 0.342 0.448 0.436 0.268 0.221 0.270 SDEV 0.185 0.126 0.211 0.164 0.132 0.132 0.199 0.194 0.192 SERR 0.040 0.019 0.022 0.016 0.011 0.009 0.013 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.897 0.918 0.875 0.906 0.946 0.946 0.894 0.867 0.895 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.043 -0.700 4.433 0.046 0.114 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.012 -0.005 0.059 79 210 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.47 1.00 1.07 1.54 4.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.113 0.127 0.019 -0.124 -0.183 -0.044 -0.079 0.024 -0.086 -0.012 PACF 0.113 0.115 -0.007 -0.144 -0.165 0.023 -0.028 0.030 -0.129 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.118 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.123 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.026 0.100 0.116 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.139 0.135 -0.034 -0.106 -0.192 -0.034 -0.047 0.076 -0.108 0.002 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.139 2 0.123 0.118 3 0.131 0.126 -0.069 4 0.123 0.140 -0.054 -0.113 5 0.105 0.132 -0.032 -0.093 -0.159 6 0.111 0.135 -0.031 -0.098 -0.163 0.037 7 0.112 0.134 -0.031 -0.098 -0.162 0.038 -0.008 8 0.112 0.132 -0.021 -0.092 -0.160 0.029 -0.015 0.065 9 0.123 0.129 -0.016 -0.118 -0.175 0.026 0.007 0.083 -0.165 10 0.119 0.131 -0.016 -0.118 -0.179 0.023 0.006 0.086 -0.162 -0.021 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1481.88 1478.20 1476.17 1476.79 1475.08 1469.65 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1471.26 1473.24 1474.03 1468.09 1469.96 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 0.118 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.30 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.123 0.133 0.031 0.019 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670011 2 0.257 0.353 0.236 2 670012 2 0.213 0.334 0.203 3 670021 2 0.098 0.220 0.155 4 670022 2 0.062 0.221 0.069 5 670031 2 0.189 0.315 0.195 6 670032 2 0.137 0.295 0.144 7 670041 2 0.009 -0.083 -0.028 8 670042 2 0.161 0.341 0.100 9 670051 2 0.202 0.312 0.221 10 670052 2 0.181 0.304 0.203 11 670061 2 0.072 0.213 0.021 12 670062 2 0.098 0.226 0.148 13 670071 2 0.425 0.371 0.359 14 670072 2 0.037 0.112 0.137 15 670081 2 0.237 0.307 0.243 16 670082 2 0.225 0.381 0.097 17 670091 2 0.065 0.153 0.119 18 670101 2 0.257 0.326 0.252 19 670102 2 0.237 0.373 0.180 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670111 2 0.196 0.300 0.213 21 670112 2 0.170 0.247 0.233 22 670121 2 0.143 0.306 0.131 23 670122 2 0.093 0.257 0.102 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.164 0.269 0.162 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.093 0.104 0.084 MEDIAN 2 0.170 0.304 0.155 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.123 0.107 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.009 -0.083 -0.028 LOWER HINGE 2 0.096 0.223 0.111 UPPER HINGE 2 0.219 0.330 0.217 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.425 0.381 0.359 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670011 1718 1982 265 1.000 0.076 -0.279 3.417 0.084 0.004 2 670012 1719 1982 264 1.000 0.078 -0.246 3.188 0.090 0.011 3 670021 1827 1982 156 1.000 0.070 -0.506 3.484 0.078 -0.015 4 670022 1850 1982 133 1.000 0.057 -0.580 3.999 0.063 -0.002 5 670031 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.069 0.005 3.274 0.077 -0.012 6 670032 1750 1982 233 1.000 0.062 -0.273 3.116 0.069 0.006 7 670041 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.044 -0.800 3.710 0.047 0.000 8 670042 1818 1982 165 1.000 0.061 -0.366 3.782 0.067 -0.010 9 670051 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.063 -0.373 3.635 0.071 0.007 10 670052 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.059 -0.300 3.448 0.065 -0.002 11 670061 1828 1982 155 1.000 0.053 -0.475 3.643 0.061 0.003 12 670062 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.064 -0.544 3.904 0.070 0.012 13 670071 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.067 0.027 3.101 0.075 -0.035 14 670072 1725 1982 258 1.000 0.062 -0.508 3.545 0.069 -0.007 15 670081 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.068 -0.451 3.621 0.076 -0.037 16 670082 1741 1982 242 1.000 0.077 -0.208 3.901 0.086 -0.021 17 670091 1763 1982 220 1.000 0.065 0.323 3.733 0.069 -0.018 18 670101 1768 1982 215 1.000 0.065 -0.223 3.048 0.077 -0.036 19 670102 1829 1982 154 1.000 0.062 0.050 4.693 0.070 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670111 1709 1982 274 1.000 0.054 -0.187 3.086 0.061 -0.026 21 670112 1715 1982 268 1.000 0.053 -0.347 3.860 0.061 -0.033 22 670121 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.062 -0.161 3.007 0.071 -0.005 23 670122 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.072 -0.101 2.851 0.083 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 213 1.000 0.064 -0.284 3.524 0.071 -0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.008 0.246 0.418 0.010 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 220 1.000 0.063 -0.279 3.545 0.070 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 92 0.000 0.009 0.289 0.606 0.011 0.021 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.044 -0.800 2.851 0.047 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.060 -0.463 3.152 0.066 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.069 -0.174 3.758 0.077 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 289 1.000 0.078 0.323 4.693 0.090 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.362 0.098 0.006 -0.502 4.091 -0.039 0.605 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.039 SERIES 670041 AND 670102 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.605 SERIES 670011 AND 670012 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 21. 45. 91. 105. 153. 231. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.585 0.505 0.397 0.424 0.494 0.456 0.328 0.284 0.324 SDEV 0.105 0.097 0.130 0.120 0.116 0.109 0.143 0.157 0.150 SERR 0.023 0.014 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.009 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.934 0.929 0.910 0.932 0.954 0.950 0.918 0.901 0.917 NSS 10.0 12.9 15.3 18.6 21.4 22.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.043 -0.697 4.574 0.052 -0.159 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.020 -0.007 0.053 74 215 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.36 1.00 1.05 1.41 4.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.159 -0.037 0.036 -0.122 -0.145 0.024 -0.030 0.070 -0.064 0.031 PACF -0.159 -0.063 0.021 -0.119 -0.189 -0.051 -0.051 0.045 -0.099 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.118 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.029 -0.159 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.004 -0.011 -0.151 -0.172 -0.010 -0.028 0.062 -0.056 0.015 PACF 0.001 -0.004 -0.011 -0.152 -0.177 -0.018 -0.036 0.034 -0.114 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.120 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.001 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.042 -0.719 4.578 0.045 0.128 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.128 0.101 -0.026 -0.162 -0.196 -0.050 -0.057 0.041 -0.064 0.001 PACF 0.128 0.086 -0.050 -0.166 -0.159 0.020 -0.026 0.022 -0.126 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.118 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.124 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.026 0.117 0.087 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES