RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO565E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO565E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Nederland CO, (EK ab 611 WIDTH_EARLY PCPU - 670 2 United States of America blue spruce, Colorado spruce 2500 3959-1053 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670631 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 2.411 0.810 0.388 3.378 0.202 0.655 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.983 0.513 0.124 2.737 0.161 0.756 3 670631 1895 1982 88 2.404 0.916 0.632 2.348 0.151 0.856 4 670632 1908 1982 75 3.174 0.802 0.459 2.550 0.154 0.706 5 670641 1921 1982 62 2.286 0.560 -0.725 4.678 0.192 0.446 6 670642 1921 1982 62 2.436 0.870 0.128 3.382 0.245 0.617 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.492 0.552 0.343 3.212 0.192 0.756 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.839 0.468 0.666 2.786 0.172 0.620 9 670661 1930 1982 53 2.806 0.478 0.160 3.214 0.143 0.479 10 670662 1927 1982 56 2.194 0.689 -0.386 2.394 0.139 0.834 11 670671 1924 1982 59 2.264 0.505 0.005 2.248 0.144 0.634 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.817 0.407 0.465 3.330 0.134 0.628 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.437 0.607 0.277 2.037 0.200 0.812 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.863 0.687 0.512 2.209 0.201 0.757 15 670691 1927 1982 56 2.320 0.693 0.060 2.183 0.171 0.731 16 670692 1905 1982 78 2.034 0.914 0.173 2.403 0.194 0.844 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.625 0.743 0.332 2.409 0.224 0.781 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.400 0.529 0.453 3.134 0.202 0.685 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.896 0.705 0.473 2.716 0.174 0.847 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.755 0.650 0.514 2.608 0.192 0.806 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.169 0.617 0.381 2.359 0.303 0.731 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.454 0.834 0.332 2.320 0.256 0.867 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1880 TO 1982 103 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 2.003 0.661 0.262 2.756 0.188 0.720 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.491 0.152 0.323 0.606 0.042 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.940 0.669 0.337 2.579 0.192 0.743 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.695 0.273 0.337 0.864 0.048 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.169 0.407 -0.725 2.037 0.134 0.446 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.625 0.529 0.128 2.348 0.154 0.634 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 86 2.320 0.802 0.465 3.212 0.202 0.812 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 3.174 0.916 0.666 4.678 0.303 0.867 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.306 0.326 0.021 -0.372 2.193 -0.468 0.844 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.468 SERIES 670642 AND 670711 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.844 SERIES 670681 AND 670712 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.345 SDEV 0.320 SERR 0.039 EPS 0.913 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 1.886 0.436 -0.692 3.868 0.156 0.694 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.562 0.430 -0.110 18 85 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.63 1.01 1.09 1.71 4.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.10 0.00 0.83 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 70. 29. 50. 59. 88. 103. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.687 0.546 0.442 0.425 0.370 0.269 0.181 0.152 0.143 0.084 PACF 0.687 0.141 0.045 0.143 0.010 -0.100 -0.061 0.027 0.029 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.197 0.275 0.314 0.337 0.358 0.372 0.380 0.383 0.385 0.387 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.498 0.589 0.154 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00553926 2.20837235 2 670612 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00441999 1.78458381 3 670631 1 3.58510494 0.01576343 0.00000000 0.47959289 4 670632 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02247027 4.02747011 5 670641 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01285966 1.88088846 6 670642 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02377855 1.68694341 7 670651 1 1.11681414 0.12052832 0.00000000 1.37045503 8 670652 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01077142 2.19484138 9 670661 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00996210 3.07501459 10 670662 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03011415 3.05253887 11 670671 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00924080 1.98633552 12 670672 1 1.33262467 0.14189446 0.00000000 1.65252268 13 670681 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02533333 2.26052094 14 670682 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02062164 2.57394648 15 670691 1 1.32724154 0.05163298 0.00000000 1.89791095 16 670692 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03151709 3.27877116 17 670701 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01231428 2.26568246 18 670702 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01281767 1.93193316 19 670711 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01503197 2.61050797 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00882975 2.17398763 21 670731 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01073517 0.67016244 22 670732 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00440768 1.34180403 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.332 0.346 3.065 0.199 0.646 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.249 0.029 2.818 0.159 0.738 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.189 -0.274 4.284 0.158 0.460 4 670632 1908 1982 75 0.999 0.192 0.343 2.838 0.152 0.454 5 670641 1921 1982 62 0.999 0.228 -0.584 5.626 0.189 0.332 6 670642 1921 1982 62 0.995 0.320 0.509 4.546 0.241 0.504 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.339 0.042 3.008 0.190 0.717 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.223 0.257 2.442 0.169 0.543 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.161 0.126 2.627 0.141 0.406 10 670662 1927 1982 56 0.993 0.229 0.288 2.643 0.135 0.683 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.209 -0.096 2.511 0.141 0.573 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.172 -0.090 2.759 0.128 0.485 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.004 0.278 0.059 3.069 0.197 0.563 14 670682 1915 1982 68 0.999 0.282 0.155 2.463 0.198 0.630 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.271 0.234 2.731 0.169 0.668 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.985 0.269 -0.197 3.064 0.193 0.619 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.989 0.379 0.316 2.443 0.222 0.708 18 670702 1901 1982 82 0.995 0.306 0.732 3.634 0.198 0.559 19 670711 1889 1982 94 0.997 0.288 0.267 3.784 0.172 0.760 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 0.997 0.335 0.509 2.940 0.191 0.771 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.476 0.260 2.312 0.299 0.624 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.582 0.424 2.444 0.250 0.847 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 0.998 0.287 0.166 3.093 0.186 0.604 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.004 0.099 0.295 0.821 0.041 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.275 0.246 2.828 0.189 0.622 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.003 0.109 0.314 0.559 0.040 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.985 0.161 -0.584 2.312 0.128 0.332 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.997 0.223 0.029 2.511 0.158 0.504 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.332 0.343 3.069 0.198 0.708 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.004 0.582 0.732 5.626 0.299 0.847 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670612 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670631 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670632 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670641 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670642 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670651 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670652 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670661 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670662 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670671 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670672 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670681 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670682 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670691 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670692 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670701 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670702 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670711 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670731 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670732 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 0.996 0.263 0.468 4.074 0.199 0.487 2 670612 1894 1982 89 0.996 0.189 -0.633 3.508 0.160 0.528 3 670631 1895 1982 88 0.999 0.178 -0.432 4.799 0.158 0.403 4 670632 1908 1982 75 0.998 0.161 0.368 2.968 0.151 0.252 5 670641 1921 1982 62 0.999 0.198 -1.354 8.287 0.186 0.229 6 670642 1921 1982 62 0.997 0.249 -0.579 5.248 0.238 0.304 7 670651 1911 1982 72 0.994 0.323 0.178 3.431 0.188 0.693 8 670652 1918 1982 65 0.996 0.189 0.121 2.665 0.168 0.355 9 670661 1930 1982 53 0.998 0.143 -0.126 2.928 0.140 0.288 10 670662 1927 1982 56 0.996 0.159 0.707 4.444 0.135 0.459 11 670671 1924 1982 59 0.999 0.180 -0.409 2.703 0.141 0.498 12 670672 1930 1982 53 0.999 0.160 -0.359 3.161 0.127 0.418 13 670681 1919 1982 64 0.993 0.243 0.251 3.154 0.196 0.443 14 670682 1915 1982 68 0.990 0.210 0.143 3.279 0.197 0.325 15 670691 1927 1982 56 0.991 0.218 0.438 2.971 0.168 0.493 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.995 0.224 -0.416 3.420 0.194 0.417 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.995 0.289 0.027 2.926 0.221 0.536 18 670702 1901 1982 82 0.996 0.265 0.851 3.750 0.197 0.469 19 670711 1889 1982 94 0.991 0.216 -0.331 4.491 0.169 0.565 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 0.994 0.251 -0.300 3.270 0.191 0.596 21 670731 1891 1982 92 0.982 0.424 0.117 2.226 0.299 0.534 22 670732 1933 1982 50 0.944 0.310 0.011 3.070 0.252 0.566 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 0.993 0.229 -0.057 3.671 0.185 0.448 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.012 0.066 0.502 1.272 0.041 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 0.996 0.217 0.019 3.275 0.187 0.464 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.005 0.084 0.660 1.106 0.040 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.944 0.143 -1.354 2.226 0.127 0.229 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.993 0.180 -0.409 2.968 0.158 0.355 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 0.998 0.263 0.251 4.074 0.197 0.534 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 0.999 0.424 0.851 8.287 0.299 0.693 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.336 0.173 0.011 -0.603 5.097 -0.483 0.772 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.483 SERIES 670631 AND 670651 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.772 SERIES 670731 AND 670732 50 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.272 SDEV 0.260 SERR 0.032 EPS 0.882 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.979 0.176 -0.391 3.364 0.151 0.490 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.181 0.087 0.082 39 64 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.63 1.01 1.14 1.77 1497.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.486 0.301 0.064 0.034 0.024 -0.029 -0.108 -0.199 -0.152 -0.184 PACF 0.486 0.085 -0.147 0.041 0.039 -0.081 -0.105 -0.118 0.027 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.197 0.239 0.253 0.254 0.254 0.254 0.254 0.256 0.262 0.265 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.243 0.487 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.488 0.319 0.090 0.056 0.016 0.048 -0.071 -0.096 -0.153 -0.069 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.488 2 0.436 0.106 3 0.450 0.164 -0.133 4 0.455 0.158 -0.150 0.038 5 0.455 0.159 -0.152 0.035 0.007 6 0.455 0.157 -0.145 0.029 -0.012 0.042 7 0.461 0.156 -0.141 0.008 0.011 0.107 -0.144 8 0.454 0.161 -0.141 0.008 0.004 0.115 -0.123 -0.046 9 0.452 0.154 -0.134 0.008 0.005 0.107 -0.114 -0.021 -0.056 10 0.455 0.155 -0.127 0.002 0.004 0.106 -0.106 -0.030 -0.082 0.059 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 658.36 632.37 633.20 633.36 635.21 637.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 639.02 638.85 640.63 642.31 643.95 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.488 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 23.80 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 131.23 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.488 0.238 0.116 0.057 0.028 0.013 0.007 0.003 0.002 0.0008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670611 1 0.246 0.495 2 670612 1 0.282 0.531 3 670631 1 0.211 0.411 4 670632 1 0.066 0.253 5 670641 1 0.056 0.233 6 670642 1 0.100 0.316 7 670651 1 0.489 0.697 8 670652 1 0.128 0.357 9 670661 1 0.159 0.293 10 670662 1 0.220 0.465 11 670671 1 0.268 0.514 12 670672 1 0.201 0.448 13 670681 1 0.205 0.453 14 670682 1 0.186 0.326 15 670691 1 0.256 0.504 16 670692 1 0.180 0.423 17 670701 1 0.310 0.538 18 670702 1 0.227 0.471 19 670711 1 0.358 0.568 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670712 1 0.358 0.597 21 670731 1 0.287 0.535 22 670732 1 0.333 0.567 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.233 0.454 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.103 0.119 MEDIAN 1 0.223 0.468 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.107 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.056 0.233 LOWER HINGE 1 0.180 0.357 UPPER HINGE 1 0.287 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.489 0.697 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.228 0.790 3.995 0.230 0.016 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.160 -0.050 2.939 0.181 0.011 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.162 -0.606 5.528 0.193 -0.098 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.156 0.542 3.106 0.170 -0.013 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.193 -1.848 11.077 0.203 0.005 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.236 -0.726 5.637 0.266 -0.014 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.231 -0.249 5.207 0.257 -0.045 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.176 0.337 2.957 0.193 0.001 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.136 -0.441 2.988 0.166 -0.079 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.141 0.342 3.270 0.168 -0.033 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.154 -0.273 2.720 0.163 0.052 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.143 -0.536 3.463 0.153 0.039 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.215 0.435 4.487 0.231 -0.014 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.198 0.276 3.767 0.235 -0.097 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.188 0.296 3.911 0.213 -0.018 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.203 -0.891 4.445 0.229 -0.023 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.244 -0.022 3.723 0.271 0.093 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.233 1.051 4.594 0.231 -0.037 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.178 -0.065 4.935 0.213 -0.128 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.201 -0.429 3.763 0.241 -0.032 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.001 0.354 0.211 4.030 0.382 0.017 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.255 -0.862 5.469 0.316 -0.070 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.199 -0.124 4.364 0.223 -0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.050 0.654 1.748 0.054 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.195 -0.057 3.953 0.221 -0.016 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.071 0.873 1.665 0.060 0.056 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.000 0.136 -1.848 2.720 0.153 -0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.160 -0.536 3.270 0.181 -0.045 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.231 0.337 4.935 0.241 0.011 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.001 0.354 1.051 11.077 0.382 0.093 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.338 0.145 0.010 0.026 3.851 -0.229 0.721 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.229 SERIES 670631 AND 670651 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.721 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.255 SDEV 0.186 SERR 0.023 EPS 0.873 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.992 0.155 -0.522 4.585 0.190 -0.013 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.196 0.090 0.054 34 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 2.28 1.00 1.13 3.41 12.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 0.109 -0.064 -0.029 0.034 0.001 -0.065 -0.130 0.028 -0.065 PACF -0.012 0.109 -0.063 -0.043 0.048 0.006 -0.081 -0.131 0.049 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.197 0.197 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.201 0.205 0.205 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.109 -0.064 -0.030 0.033 0.001 -0.067 -0.130 0.026 -0.066 PACF 0.001 0.109 -0.065 -0.041 0.049 0.004 -0.083 -0.129 0.049 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.197 0.197 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.201 0.205 0.205 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.993 0.181 -0.394 3.350 0.150 0.517 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.512 0.304 0.088 0.022 0.011 -0.045 -0.126 -0.177 -0.124 -0.177 PACF 0.512 0.056 -0.118 0.007 0.033 -0.078 -0.117 -0.070 0.043 -0.141 95% C.L. 0.197 0.243 0.258 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.262 0.266 0.268 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.266 0.514 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.12 MINUTES